According to senior Liberal strategist Ryan Sparrow …

by kadyomalley on Friday, August 8, 2008 9:06am - 0 Comments

Seriously, is there a scintilla of actual evidence – circumstantial or otherwise -  that now infamously former Liberal candidate Robert Morrissey bolted because of the Green Shift?

I mean, I’m not saying he didn’t – heck, anything is possible. But based on the coverage so far, it seems as though that particular claim originated with Conservative Party spokesbird (and erstwhile part-time House of Commons salary-drawer) Ryan Sparrow, who isn’t exactly what I’d call objective – and, I’m betting, is downright shocked by how easy it has been to push this story to the local PEI press despite a noticeable lack of independent corroboration.

True, Peter MacKay has now waded into the fray – and by doing so, has sent the retiring incumbent, Joe McGuire into fits of highly entertaining outrage – but I’m not sure if that means much, frankly. This is, after all, the regional minister who claimed to be completely unaware that his own province was playing host to the Liberals’ Atlantic Liberal caucus earlier this week. If that’s the case, it’s hard to see how he can be considered a credible source of internal Liberal party gossip.

The Liberals, however, aren’t exactly doing much to counter Sparrow’s surprisingly successful shot in the dark. Last night, the party put out a statement from no less a personage than party president Don Doug (I don’t know how I got that wrong) Ferguson, in which he announced the resignation of a second candidate – Garry Oledzki, who had been preparing to run for the party in Palliser, Saskatchewan, for “personal and professional” reasons.

To which those members of the parliamentary press gallery still checking their respective berries at ten to six on a sleepy Thursday night responded, thusly: “Oledzki? Palliser? Did I miss something? Clearly, the resignation of this Oledzni fellow, of whom most of us have never heard until this very second, is important enough for Don Ferguson to issue a press release. Therefore, it must be juicy.” At which point the frenzied Googling began, as journalists attempted to figure out exactly why the Liberals would be so concerned about getting out ahead of a story that didn’t appear to have existed until they pointed it out to everyone.

The predictable result: At least one headline about Liberal candidates dropping like flies, despite the fact that, once again, there is no reason to assume that the two events were connected in any way, or that either candidate was driven out by the horrible prospect of campaigning on the Green Shift.

In fact, as far as electoral prospects, the two ridings – Egmont and Palliser – couldn’t be less similar. Egmont, which McGuire won with 53% of the vote during the last election, is the closest thing the Liberals have to a stronghold in Atlantic Canada. Oledzki’s chances in Palliser, on the other hand, could most kindly have been described as “mathematically speaking, not quite non-existent” – over the last decade, the riding has swung back and forth between the Conservatives and the NDP; the Liberals ran a distant third in 2006.

Given all that – and despite the best efforts of both Ryan Sparrow and the Liberal Party to convince me that these departures are a bleak harbinger of the party’s electoral fortunes – I think I’d rather wait to hear from the now former candidates before officially declaring this to be an Outremontesque crisis for Dion. Hopefully in time, they’ll forgive me.

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  • Tintin

    Um, Cool Blue, I do remember what it was like when a high profile former provincial cabinet minister resigned as candidate for the Cosnervatives. And who then said the reasons why she wasn’t running. Jane Purves, anyone? Anyone? http://www.liberal.ca/story_12869_e.aspx

    Also, to a few posters who are talking about how Dion alone has the power to call an election… um, refer to the previous story, which remembers a time when the Bloc supported the Conservatives to pass a budget. Which is clearly impossible to ever happen ever again, as the Liberals have a majority of seats and Dion has incredible omnipotent power.

    And yes Cool Blue, people can decide to do other things. Or things happen. I know, it’s surprising. Take Saskatchewan Conservative MPs Brian Fitzpatrick and Carol Skelton for instance, who are not running in the next election. Throwing away the perks! Maybe – they were so disgusted with Harper’s environmental policy they couldn’t campaign for it! Yeah, nothing to see, move along!

    Speculation is fun! I could be a Conservative cabinet minister!

    Oh yeah… isn’t MacKay supposed to concerned about armed conflict somewhere or something? Or is he the new Opposition Affairs Minister?

  • Cool Blue

    Nothing to see here folks! The Green Shift is so popular that Dion will sweep the nation and win a historical majority! He’s a “juggernaught”!

    FYI: I understand campaigning and politics very well having ran the campaign of a current sitting MP

    That’s why I know when a politician uses “family matters” or even worse unnamed “private sector opportunities” they’re full of Shift.

    I know because I’ve used that excuse myself.

  • john g

    Another online poll (usual disclaimers apply) at the PEI Guardian, from a few weeks back. I assume that “Liberals” here refers to the Federal Liberals, but someone correct me if they meant the provincial libs. Seems Green Shift is not going over well on the Island.

    The David Suzuki Foundation gave P.E.I. a ranking of fair when it comes to climate change policies. Using the foundation’s own rankings, how would you rank the Liberals on climate change policies? (July 16, 2008 to July 20, 2008)

    Best, with BC 10%

    Very Good, with PQ 5%

    Good, with MN, ON 7%

    Fair, with NB, NS, PE, and NU 30%

    Poor, with NL, YK, NT, and SK 18%

    Worst, with AB 31%

  • Jarrid

    Dot, Tintin and T. Thwim – keep spinning.

    When a person wins a nomination meeting less than 9 months ago, in a safe Liberal riding and then bails for unspecified better options, it’s because he has compared the options. Whether it’s directly attributable to the Green Shift, Dion’s Leadership or the recent trends in the polls: Conservatives trending up, Liberal stagnant, what once was an interesting prospect has become a less interesting one. No one can relish the prospect of being an opposition backbencher for 4 years.

  • Dot

    Jarrid,

    I guess my question to you might be, if the election was not perceived by many as imminent in Nov 2007, why hold a nomination meeting?

    These things are not like sterilized boxed milk for everyone. Surely they have a shelf life, no?

    I guess if I was a candidate, (high profile or not) and the election (and hence my career) were put on permanent hold (now up to two years), if I was self respecting , surely I`d check out more certain options, career and family wise. The clock doesn`t stop or be suspended.

    If that is spin, you`re on an out of control merry-go-round.

  • David

    Jane Purves, Cynthia Downey, Joe Goudie, Norm Doyle, if the rumor mill is correct Loyola Hearn and Greg Thompson.

    Candidates are truly dropping like flies in Atlantic Canada.

    Tory ones.

  • Jarrid

    “By which I mean waiting for some sort of definitive statement from the candidate.”

    I see Kady O’Malley practises the tried and true MSM reporting. If a potentially adverse story involves a left-lib politician phone him up and take his word for it. If he denies it take his word for it, it is only true and becomes a story if he says so.

    It’s sort of like the New York Times approach to John Edwards. They will be reporting today that John Edwards had an affair while his wife was recovering from cancer and while he was a presidential candidate. They will report it because John Edwards admitted it today. Prior to today they didn’t touch the story. With John McCain, they reported as a front page story the unsubstantiated rumour that he was having an affair but they had to back off after they couldn’t prove it, although they threw considerable resources at it. The difference in approach. One was a conservative who are the enemy, the other was a liberal, a fellow traveller.

  • Cool Blue

    Last I recall there were close to 30 Lib MPs who have announced they’re not running again.

  • Dot

    Jarrid,

    Did you and Cool Blue together skip your class on cartesian logic?

    If we accept as fact what you claim, the NY Times would have wished to promote the fortunes of that liberal GW Bush while he contested the noomination of the GOP instead of John McCain, while now, it wishes to, I don`t know, limit the damage to Barack Obama`s campaign because his defeated opponent shagged someone, sometime.

    I`m not commenting anymore on these sophomoric statements. I`ll wait until you both at least become logical equivalents to juniors.

  • Prince Edward Island

    Kady,

    You fight too hard for the Liberal cause.

    Ryan Sparrow has a lot more info on this story than you do, apparently.

    Two things you should be asking for:

    1. Stephane Dion was on PEI a few weeks ago for a forum on the Dion Tax. The Liberal candidate in that stronghold you speak of was on stage behind him. The Liberal Party was videotaping the event. Your Liberal candidate got more and more upset as Dion talked about the tax and it was extremely apparent to everyone there that he felt the carbon tax was going to do him in. Local reporter Wayne Thibodeau commented on it, as did many local Liberals. As a result, Mike Duffy asked to see the video tape, but wouldn’t you know it suddenly the tape had just plum disappeared.

    Check with the Duff, he’ll fill you in.

    2. The polling.

    The Liberal Party did polling on PEI to find out, ya know, what’s up. The results indicated 3 if not all 4 PEI ridings are going Tory blue: and the Carbon Tax was the deciding factor. Lots of “uhh.. hey idiots, our biggest industries are agriculture, fishery, tourism and manufacturing… a carbon tax will throw us even further into the stone ages.”

    So your partisan defence of the Liberals is fair comment, it is nonetheless an uninformed comment. Why don’t you play journalist for a day and see if you can get your hands on that polling and video tape? Then you’d actually have something to blog about.

  • Prince Edward Island

    Just a follow up,

    Peter MacKay has been in PEI approximately 30 times in the last two years. And he’s in weekly contact with local reporter Wayne Thibodeau, not to mention he has a full time employee here and is known to be in regular contact with UPEI’s Conservative Campus Club.

    One might say, he’s got the gossip.

    What are your PEI credentials, might I ask?

  • Cool Blue

    PEI,

    Thanks for bring up that point of the video tape.

    I had heard about an east-coast Lib who was visibly upset on tape during a Dion rally a few weeks ago but I didn’t realize this was the same guy.

    Nothing to see here folks…

  • http://www.macleans.ca Kady O’Malley

    Prince Edward Island (the poster, not the, uh, island): See, a tape showing something like that would be actual evidence. Unfortunately, you suggest that it’s no longer available, but surely one of those local Liberals will eventually come forward, even anonymously, and reveal what they saw, and how it demonstrates that it was discomfort with the Green Shift that led to the candidate’s resignation.

    As for Peter MacKay’s connections, I’m not sure how his ties to local Conservatives would necessarily make him an expert in local Liberal politics.

    I’ll note again, for the benefit of anyone who missed it the first time, that I am not saying that the original Guardian story was incorrect. It may be, for all I know. I’d just like to have something other than the word of the Conservative Party spokesperson to back it up, for obvious reasons.

  • kody

    Kady,

    that incredibly weak response to the excellent points raised by PEI, makes you look like you are starting from a particular proposition/defending one side,

    rather than acting as an impartial truth seeker the media tells us to “trust” day in and day out.

    In short, you can’t be trusted to report. You CAN be relied on to advocate – which is obviously what you are doing here.

    tsk tsk

  • Lord Kitchener’s Own

    Wow,

    Kady’s point is just FLYING over some people’s heads eh?

  • Partisan non-partisan

    More gossip. I saw Greg Thompson in the parking lot of the building behind me loading stuff into a truck a couple of weeks ago. I guess that could corroborate the idea he’s leaving (but why would he, he’s in Cabinet and a safe seat – WAY WAY WAY safer than Egmont).

  • Partisan non-partisan

    And another thing Kady, you could talk to Wayne Thibodeau for more info too.

    I know most of the reporters on PEI and IMHO he’s top notch. Fair, balanced and wouldn’t have run with this story if he didn’t think there was truth to it.

  • Jarrid

    Kady, I don’t think the local PEI press needs any lessons in reporting from Kady O’Malley. Who crowned you a media ombudsman anyway? I know the MSM think they have a god-given right to tell us what we’re supposed to hear but I think you’re taking things to absurd lengths with this post.

    Oh and by the way, condescension – “…how easy it has been to push this story to the local PEI press despite a noticeable lack of independent corroboration” – never looks good on anyone. We bumpkins “outside the Queensway” don’t need lectures on how to do our jobs, especially by people who are apparently having considerable difficulty understanding theirs.

  • Jarrid

    Oh no! Another outside the beltway rube who’s falling for the Tory spin. Stephen Maher in today’s Halifax Chronicle-Herald is reporting:

    “…and this week Robert Morrissey, the nominated Liberal candidate in Egmont, announced he was withdrawing to pursue other opportunities. His news release cited “uncertainty” about election timing.

    Mr. MacKay pointed out Friday that Mr. Morrissey’s reason is odd, since there looks likely to be an election this fall, and suggested Mr. Morrissey had quit because of the Green Shift. If that’s true, and it might be, he wouldn’t want to damage his party by admitting it.”

    Better get on the case Kady and set him straight. (This could end up being a full time job!)

  • http://www.macleans.ca Kady O’Malley

    Jarrid – Maher is an excellent reporter – and, full disclosure, a good friend – who, in the quote you cite, reports MacKay’s comments as exactly what they are: speculation. Is he right (MacKay, that is, not Maher)? He might well be – but we don’t know. I’m not sure how more clearly I can explain it.

  • Ti-Guy

    I’ll note again, for the benefit of anyone who missed it the first time, that I am not saying that the original Guardian story was incorrect. It may be, for all I know. I’d just like to have something other than the word of the Conservative Party spokesperson to back it up, for obvious reasons.

    Got that, shills?

    Oh, never mind.

  • http://www.macleans.ca Kady O’Malley

    Partisan Non Partisan: I’m sure he is a fine reporter — in fact, while I was trying to find another source for the alleged video tape that showed Morrissey looking increasingly askance while on stage behind Dion during his swing through PEI, I found a number of commenters suggesting that he was biased towards the Liberals (although as usual, with no actual evidence).

    That claim actually interests me very much — that this video tape exists, and that Thibodeau has mentioned it, and as such, was obviously aware of it. I don’t quite understand why he wouldn’t have included a reference to *that* in his original article on the resignation — you know, something like, “Morrissey, who looked visibly upset during Dion’s speech last month in Charlottetown” or something like that. Then again, Thibodeau didn’t even cover the Dion townhall for the Guardian, and he doesn’t seem to have mentioned it publicly at all — at least, not that I was able to track down — so for all I know, this tape may be an urban legend.

    Hopefully upon his return from France, Morrissey will have more to say about his decision. It will also be interesting to see how quickly the nomination race to replace him fills up. There were two other contenders when Morrissey ran — if the Tories are right, and the riding is now in play, there may not be as many local Liberals eager to throw their respective hats into the ring.

  • kody

    Kady,

    quick question, but why the complete media blackout on recent research which not only casts serious doubts on the very premise of AGW theory, but actually disproves it?

    When a high level figure in Australia’s AGW crowd comes out and publicly says that AGW is false,

    do the press owe it to us to maybe shed some light on why he might do so, other than on labeling him a heretic??

  • kody

    Or is it that holding the media’s feet to the fire is important when that fire blows in the right direction (pun intended).

  • kody

    Here’s a prediction:

    The myopic academic/leftist worldview that left the media in the US unwilling to cover the Edwards story until it was a fait a complis,

    will be nothing compared to the AGW debunking locomotive that the media will not bother to inform us is racing down the tracks until it’s at the train-crossing a few feet from the proverbial family van.

    You think the major dailies stock declines are bad now?

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