Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

Massive election-timing-speculation tip!!!

by Paul Wells on Monday, August 25, 2008 3:06pm - 0 Comments

Oooh these next few weeks are going to be SO exciting.

We have all just received a news release from the Bloc Québécois (official slogan: “It’s Taking a While. Stop Giggling”) which reveals that Mr. Gilles Duceppe will be pleased to meet Mr. Stephen Harper on the 5th, 6th, or 7th of September.

But not before. Too busy. So sorry.

This is huge. Why is it huge? It just is. Huge. It is huge because it means that, since the prime minister cannot call an election until he has met with all the opposition leaders in search of The One with whom he can continue to govern in peace and hard-negotiated legislative agenda, then he cannot call an election until after a Sept. 5 meeting, at the earliest. So an election is at least 11 days away. You could almost call it a “fixed election date,” although that would guarantee it would mean nothing, wouldn’t it?

UPDATE: in the comments, Inkless Irregular Boudica speculates, persuasively, that a busy schedule may not be M. Duceppe’s only consideration.

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  • Ottawa Guy

    And I suppose I should revise what I said — she already has 8 deputies, given the present vacancy on the Court.

  • sandra

    I find it quite amusing that until recently the opposition and the media were wailing that nothing was getting done and Harper had no direction other than his 5 promises.

    Now when Harper agrees and reiterates that parliament is dysfunctional then all of a sudden the pundits are proclaiming all of the bills passed and totally reversing themselves.

    I’m a little rusty on my Psychiatric terminology but there is definitely a mental illness for that kind of disillusional behavior. Either that or they are the actions of a two year old. Cheers.

  • T. Thwim

    They’re not that contradictory. Nothing is getting done, and Harper is passing his bills. The problem is, as we see with the fixed election law, his bills mean nothing.

  • Darren Trent

    Now Dion refuses to talk to Harper until September 8th. Not even a phone call..the opposition has gone AWOL!

    Isn’t that a defacto vote of non-confidence?

    Election for sure, and the opposition is going to wear it for refusing to communicate with the government.

  • Darren Trent

    the opposition is going to wear it for refusing to communicate with the government.

    not that it really matters that much.

  • T. Thwim

    Has anybody remembered that it’s summer? Parliament is out of session. Besides, if witnesses can refuse to show up for a Parliamentary summons until the day they feel available, I’m not sure why on earth a party leader must turn up immediately for the PM.

  • 2eyedjack

    What a bunch of hooey on these commentaries.
    The Opposition will not meet with the PM — Duceppe gives dates after the 5th, and Dion’s spokesthing says no meeting until the 15th — so, the PMSH doesn’t need a meet. He’s got the answer. Parliament is indeed dysfunctional. It is time to blow up this session of Parliament and have an election…

    BTW, I put a lot of the blame on Dion for opening his trap a few weeks ago and saying that, Canadians are telling me that they think they are ready for an election. BIG MISTAKE, it gave Harper the opening he needed to take down carbon tax man.

    Plus, Jack Layton is a hypocrite, saying for months it is time for an election and now saying, What harper is doing is undemocratic. You either want an election, Jack, or not. Which is it?

  • T. Thwim

    I keep coming in here and seeing people who are unable to get their minds around more than one shiny thing at a time.

    It’s both. It is time for an election, AND what Harper is doing is undemocratic. Why? Because the House passed a law. If Harper wants an election, the democratic way to do it is to put forward a vote of non-confidence in the House and either not vote, thus allowing the Bloc and NDP to carry the day, or to vote for it. Only this way do we have proper and legal affirmation that the entire House wants the election. Heck, if he does the former, he can even say “We chose not to vote, as we are obviously biased in thinking we’re doing a fine job. We’re relying on the rest of the House to either affirm that or send us to an election.”

    madeyoulook’s examination of previous minority government elections is interesting, and I’m quite surprised at how many have been called by the minority leader. Personally, I’m a bit bothered by that. Why should a minority party have the ability to terminate the government, against the wishes of the majority? That’s not democracy, in my eyes.

  • Darren Trent

    Because the House passed a law.

    There’s a shiny little intro to that law you should read.

  • madeyoulook

    T, thanks, I too was surprised to learn that 4 out of 9 completed minority-government Parliaments ended because the PM “advised” the GG to pull the plug (anyone who is down this far in the comments, and still interested, will find more — excrutiating? — detail in the “She can say no” post chez Coyne), after durations of as short as 3.5 months (Dief’s snap call in response to Pearson’s suggestion that the Liberals should retain power despite winning fewer seats).

    And, for any parliamentary democracy ner-, uh, experts, out there, I left hanging a few Q’s about the Governer General’s legal and “convention” powers and duties when a minority-govt PM come calling to dissolve. Help wanted!

    Thanks.

  • madeyoulook

    Personally, I’m a bit bothered by that. Why should a minority party have the ability to terminate the government, against the wishes of the majority? That’s not democracy, in my eyes.

    I see your point only partially, on that one, T. In such an instance, there was no vote held in the House, so it cannot be concluded that a majority voted to maintain the government. I do see that you object that the House would not even be given that opportunity, however…

    Government House Leader:
    Mr. Speaker, I am honoured to submit for first reading Bill C-double-oh, An Act to Call on Her Excellency the Governor General to Dissolve the Current Parliament and to Proceed Forthwith with a General Election. Let it be known by all Honourable Members that every vote on this Bill shall be treated as an expression of confidence in this government: Failure to pass this Bill as exactly worded (stretches out to hand a single page to the Page) shall immediately provoke the fall of this government.

    Some Honourable Members:
    What the —

    Speaker of the House:
    We shall proceed to the vote on the First Reading of Act C-Zero, uh, Zero, An Act to Call on Her Excellency the Governor General…

    Some Honourable Members:
    Hey wait a minute, those buggers just…

    Speaker of the House:
    …to Dissolve the Current Parliament and to Proceed Forthwith…

    Some Honourable Members:
    Boss, is it curtains time again? What the hell are we supposed…

    Speaker of the House:
    …with a General Election.

    (The bells ring. Some Honourable Members cry. Vulcan chess-boy cracks a — very small — smile).

  • Calgary Junkie

    I’m dying to see what kind of campaign Dion runs, and how he performs on the campaign trail.

    I suspect he is woefully unprepared in many areas, and will be just as mediocre at campaigning as he’s been at everything else.

  • http://artsminds.blogspot.com/ marta

    heh Don’t piss off the EMP-ERROR !!!! Firing squad is arranged….lololol

  • T. Thwim

    madeyoulook: Except I don’t think that can happen. You can’t forestall the possibility of amendment by saying “If you amend, it’s against confidence”, all you can do is try to keep the amendments out, and if they get in anyway, vote against it yourself. Even the budget has these opportunities for amendments.

    That said, even if it did go down exactly that way, to me it’s far preferable to the Governor General deciding to go against the wishes of the majority as previously expressed in C-16 without any formal indication that the majority has changed its’ mind.

    One thing I keep coming back to is that the Government of Canada, in my eyes, is not just the party in power, but the entire House of Commons. I wish all the occupants thereof would actually act that way, but the “dirty tricks book” of the conservatives suggests that no matter what happens, it’s not going to.

  • T. Thwim

    Followup, of course another reason that that wouldn’t happen is that Mr. Harper himself has said: “There seems to be an attitude in the Liberal government – that they can go in, be deliberately defeated and call an election – that’s not how our constitutional system works. The government has a minority – it has an obligation to demonstrate to Canadians that it can govern. That it can form a majority in the House of Commons. If it can’t form a majority, we look at other options, we don’t just concede to the government’s request to make it dysfunctional,” and he wouldn’t go back on his word.. would he?

  • madeyoulook

    T, thank you for offering a serious analysis to my whimsical flight of fancy from Hansard-in-Wonderland last night. You offered that fictional scenario a legitimacy it did not deserve.

    The GG can do as she pleases with or without the (non-)fixed date law, AFAIK no law could constrain her anyways, and subsection 1 says so. Most of us would see that subsection as recognizing and allowing the fall of a minority government to lead to a surprise election, no more. Harper wants us to believe it renders everything else in the law moot, at least for minority Parliaments, but for the fact that October 2009 was fixed right there in the text itself. Hypocrisy score goes up indeed.

    What, if anything, by law or convention, would stop GG from saying: “Françoise, Mr. Harper doesn’t want to play anymore, please get M. Dion on the line,” rather than reflexively drop the writ.

    And I wonder if Stéphane would be a little less rude and answer the bloody phone for that call…

  • madeyoulook

    Re-reading that, I suppose I should clarify that “fall of a minority government” implied “by loss of confidence in the House.”

  • T. Thwim

    If the GG picked up the phone and called the other party leaders, that works just fine for me as well. Basically, so long as she’s ensured that she has the backing of the majority of the House when she calls for the dissolution of Parliament, I think democracy, and the legitimacy of the GG, has been properly served.

    Of course, if it takes a while to reach them, then it takes a while. If conservative MPs can’t answer a parliamentary summons at the time requested, I really don’t see why the leader of any party has to jump at a time requested by the PMO.

  • madeyoulook

    Looks like ol’ Gilles found some time in his sched after all.

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