Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

Massive election-timing-speculation tip!!!

by Paul Wells on Monday, August 25, 2008 3:06pm - 0 Comments

Oooh these next few weeks are going to be SO exciting.

We have all just received a news release from the Bloc Québécois (official slogan: “It’s Taking a While. Stop Giggling”) which reveals that Mr. Gilles Duceppe will be pleased to meet Mr. Stephen Harper on the 5th, 6th, or 7th of September.

But not before. Too busy. So sorry.

This is huge. Why is it huge? It just is. Huge. It is huge because it means that, since the prime minister cannot call an election until he has met with all the opposition leaders in search of The One with whom he can continue to govern in peace and hard-negotiated legislative agenda, then he cannot call an election until after a Sept. 5 meeting, at the earliest. So an election is at least 11 days away. You could almost call it a “fixed election date,” although that would guarantee it would mean nothing, wouldn’t it?

UPDATE: in the comments, Inkless Irregular Boudica speculates, persuasively, that a busy schedule may not be M. Duceppe’s only consideration.

Tags: election speculation, Election Watch, Gilles Duceppe, How about never? Does never work for you?, Stephen Harper

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boudica

Wait a minute…

Let me see if I got this straight.

Paul.

You are telling me that, after doing such a volte-face on his own election promise, after calling 5 sets of by-elections which would then be set aside, after being told by Duceppe’s scheduler that he would essentially not have the GG in town for his dissolution request, after pursuing nonetheless a dissolution of Parliament and calling an election without the GG because he couldn’t wait until she returned from a 4-day trip, after blatantly orchestrating chaos at the Ethics committee…

After all of this…You are saying that Harper does NOT run the risk of taking a hit at the polls?!?!
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com Calgary Grit

Ha ha. Nicely played Gilles. But if Harper’s hell bent on going, he’ll find a way, meeting or not.
Paul Wells

I would certainly never try to tell you anything, Boudica.
Scruffy

This is all very inside baseball. No one cares about the timing or process of the election call.

At most, it’ll be an issue for about 10 minutes before something more interesting comes up.

For example, what do you think matters more to Canadians, the the chance of their heating bills going up or some highly academic constitutional debate.

Self-interest trumps ITQ BS. Plan and simple.
Scruffy

*Plain
Peter

I wonder what the PM and GG talk about when they get together. I’m under the impression they confer on a regular basis.

Presumably he may tell her before she leaves that the outcome of his meeting with Duceppe could “force” him to ask for an election. In that case, she may appoint a deputy to act on her behalf while she is away. I would be happy to offer my services as deputy.

I don’t think the GG has the authority to decide not to go to China unless it’s on the advice of the PM. Also, Harper loves staged announcements/photo ops. So with the GG gone and this being a very wet summer, he won’t have to worry about making the announcement on the steps of Rideau Hall.

On a side note. I’m not a supporter of Stephen Harper but I wanted to point out that he isn’t really as sneaky as everyone suggests.
boudica

“You obviously did not read Ottawa Guy’s post. ”

And you didn’t read mine. What will Harper say to Canadians? What was the urgency here that he couldn’t wait for the GG to return? What was so urgent that he couldn’t wait for the outcome of the by-elections he himself called for?

Of course, he technically doesn’t need the GG but POLITICALLY?? How will he explain himself?

And nevermind the explanation, do you understand that this would be like christmas for the LPC is Harper did this?

Remember, that whole “dysfunction” bit is complete spin and that is oh so easy to demonstrate. No one is buying Harper’s line, not even you.
boudica

“I would certainly never try to tell you anything, Boudica.”

(eye roll)
Jarrid

Boudica, if anyone’s been had it’s Stephane “I have the power” Dion. It doesn’t look like it’s sunk in that the Prime Minister also “had the power” and that he’s decided to use it.

I guess the opposition leaders can try to avoid the inevitable by refusing to take calls from the Prime Minister but the jig will be up on those little games quickly enough – and then we’re likely to find out why the opposition had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the polls.

As I say, I don’t think there is a historical precedent for the type of squeamish opposition as we’re presently witnessing in this 39th Parliament.
Darren Trent

but POLITICALLY??

No one would care. You really think Harper is going to lose the election because of the way he called the election?

Step away from the Cherniak flavoured kool-aid..
Paul Wells

Peter, I’m given to understand the PM and the GG have a decent social relationship — they’re walking-distance neighbours with children of comparable age, after all — but I’d be amazed if they talked business in anything but a formal setting. That may be naive of me — I’ve learned lately, not for the first time, that I can be naive about this guy — but there it is.
Dot

The GPC will be soon to announce that Elizabeth May is available to meet Stephen Harper Aug 25,26,27,28,29,30,31 and Sept 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 but will be unavailable after the 7th as she will be baking bread for the upcoming GPC convention, sometime, elections permitting.
Anon

Harper is not going to call ane election while the Maple Leaf foods thing is still unravelling. He can’t possibly be that reckless. I don’t think they have thought this thing through.
boudica

“No one would care. You really think Harper is going to lose the election because of the way he called the election?”

Yes. Why? Because if I’m Stephane Dion, every time Harper makes a promise during the election, I only have to remind voters how he cannot be trusted to keep his promise as he will have demonstrated to all Canadians by dissolving Parliament. If he actually does it without the GG, that would be the cherry on the sundae for Dion.
Darren Trent

“Yes. Why? Because if I’m Stephane Dion, every time Harper makes a promise during the election, I only have to remind voters how he cannot be trusted to keep his promise as he will have demonstrated to all Canadians by dissolving Parliament. If he actually does it without the GG, that would be the cherry on the sundae for Dion.”

Well I sincerely hope you work as a Liberal strategist. Good luck!
Scruffy

Boudica, you’re full of wishful thinking.

Chretien ran a campaign on cutting GST (an actual pocketbook issue for Canadians)…tell me, how’d he do in the 1997 election?

Oh ya, and how’d that Dalton guy do last September in Ontario?

You’re giving Cherniak a run for his money.
Peter

Boudica, I don’t think he needs to put much energy into explaining anything to Canadians with regard to asking for the dissolution while the GG is away.

Most Canadians don’t understand the role of the GG and most probably don’t even know about the fixed election law. I think most Canadians find out about elections when they see the signs pop up on the road.
Wayne

Hey Dot : sorry Ms May will not be able to fill in the slot as she will be here in Victoria trying to hustle up some votes!
Peter

If the Liberals run a campaign on “Stephen Harper called an election while the GG was out of the country”, it might not resonate that well with Canadians. If the Conservatives run a campaign on “Stephane Dion is not a leader and he wants to put a tax on everything so he can spend more money on criminals and day care centres for rich people”, it will be obnoxious but effective.
Dot

Wayne, I believe the GPC was thinking more in terms of providing advice to Harper on a legislative agenda she could support, but yeah, I could see your interpretation as being also plausible.
Elizabeth

Maybe Duceppe was checking out the catalogue for Les Editions de l’Homme and figured out that pushing back the meeting would increase the chances that Julie Couillard’s book will come out before voting day. http://communities.canada.com/montrealgazette/blogs/onthehill/default.aspx
jad

PW, I believe Harper also had the Chief Justice officiate at one of his cabinet shuffles – I think January 2007, but I could be wrong.

Also,it is normal practice for the PM to meet with all opposition leaders before the start of a session. I doubt they are particularly productive meetings, but they do take place.

In any case, Duceppe has now made it clear that a) he can’t find the time to meet with the PM, and
b) he will bring a no confidence vote asap

so I would conclude that the PM has his answer without the bother of a meeting.
Mike T.

if indeed chess was going on here, Harper has been ?!ing for the past few days, while Duceppe just !!’d.
Ottawa Guy

boudica:

I know this is Paul’s blog, and not Kady’s, but whether a parliament is dissolved by the GG or the CJ is something that no one cares about outside the Queensway. Liberals may wail about broken promises, but with something as mundane as that, no one will care. If it is going to have an impact it would be because the call came “early”, not because of who did the deed.

Broken promises don’t always lead to electoral problems. Chretien managed two more majorities despite the fact I still pay GST.

And just to clarify something for Peter, the GG doesn’t need to appoint a deputy since she already has 9. All judges of the Supreme Court are designated as deputies on their appointment.