Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

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Sarah Palin is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life

by Paul Wells on Wednesday, September 3, 2008 11:23pm - 112 Comments

With Gallup’s help, let me predict and explain all the reaction, pro and con, you’re going to hear over the next little while to Sarah Palin’s convention speech, her selection, and the various controversies that append thereto:

She excites the Republican base and turns off everyone else. She’s like Keith’s: Those who like it, like it a lot. She’s like that line George Will likes to quote: If you like this sort of thing, this is the sort of thing you’ll like.

Small problem: in 2008, the Republican base isn’t wide enough to win a presidential election. But tonight, as our Luiza has been chronicling from the centre of it all, the base is very happy.

Tags: Sarah Palin

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nbg127

Posted earlier:
“From the same polling Wells looks at (or another poll I saw today somewhere):

66% of Americans have no opinion on Ms. Palin. And 23% of the 33% who do look upon her favourably.

She is going to do fine among the white suburban women she was supposed to.”

NOT this white suburban woman!!!!!! Yuck.
Steve Wart

nbg127 now you know how guys felt about Bill Clinton :)
kody

Paul,

you seem to be confusing my unwillingness to buy into your nuanced leftist approach with a lack of reading comprehension. That you don’t appreciate how I’m “comprehending” your message may have more to do with your myopic leftist world view, than any intellectual shortcomings on my part.
Chris Sastre

“nuanced leftist approach”
“myopic leftist world view”

Yep, kody, Paul was _way_ off base with his insane observation that Palin is only scratching that Baby-Jesus-Loving (and don’t you DARE insinuate that the Baby J was a Community Organizer!) itch. That leftist, commie, pinko, Uncle-Joe loving, coffee-slurpin’ egghead sure whiffed on _that_ one. Moderates of the world are flocking to the banner of conservative Jody Vance. What was that left-wing, criminal-loving, Trudeau worshipping soft swab thinking? With the titanic mountain of problems facing the flatlining and foreclosing US, their borrow-bilions-a-day economy and oil-glugging stealth bombers and nation-building armies, the whole undecided middle has been waiting with baited breath for a fresh face to spout more hot-air about fambly values, elitist black men, abortion, school prayer and other desperately vital flashpoint issues from the Karl Rove playbook.

Shame on you Paul.
Jack Mitchell

I wonder, kody, are people to the right of you myopic leftists too, or are you using it as an objective term?
Anshu

I think the data contained in this post nearly completely refutes the argument Paul Wells tried to make regarding Palin’s appeal to the non-core.

http://tigerinexile.wordpress.com/2008/09/05/little-indicators/
yyc

Wells, The latest Rasmussen’s say her appeal to the swing voters went right over your head. Palin is one up on Obama and 10 up on Biden and within the polling margin of Obama on experience.

Media campaigning against Palin 51%

Favourable Ratings

Palin 58% (Ind 59%)
Obama, McCain 57%
Biden 48%.

More experienced
Obama 48 (Ind 45%)
Palin 44 (Ind 42%)
http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

Joan Tintor

I thought Newman/Champ were disgraceful yesterday, Newman actually said it was like pass the hot potato. But I can’t say I was surprised because, like Wells points out in a non-specific way, we all know how ‘sophisticated’ they are at the CBC.
Shenping

I think it’s pretty accepted in American politics that national-level polls are meaningless.

The way things work is that there are a total of something like 540 “Electoral College” seats, divided among states according to population. If you win a state, you get all the seats from that state. To win, you need to win 270 seats.

California is the biggest with 55 seats, which looks securely Democrat. The Republicans have Texas’s 34, which is more or less balanced by New York’s 31 for the Dems. Florida has 27 seats & could go either way, so both parties will spend a lot of time there. Illinois is a biggie & is securely Dem. New England together add up to a lot & are mostly Dem.

With current state-level polls, the Dems are up by 207 to 174 seats with 157 undecided. The GOP will probably carry more states, but the Dems lead in states with large populations (other than Texas). How the votes are distributed is as important as the total count. Expect to see lots of campaigning in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Florida, and to a lesser extent, Virginia & North Carolina, because these states will determine the next president.
noway

The majority of the country doesn’t support such an extreme pro-life position as Sarah Palin where there is no exception for cases of rape and incest. Even in conservative South Dakota, the voters overturned the state’s decision to ban all abortion in 2006.

Sarah Palin’s families absolutely should be off limit to criticism. I feel sorry for Bristol and I think it was not great of Sarah and Todd to throw her into the national spotlight in her current situation. And I think it’s creepy that some on the right talk about how excited her pregnany made them. It gives me the willies thinking about Rush Limbaugh giggling wih elation at the thought of teenagers having sex.

That said, when the right finally lets the media interview Sarah Palin (which they are not doing right now— why so secretive???) I think she will lose more and more of the moderates and indies. She and McCain have laid forth no policies to help the unemployed, people strugglnig with home foreclosures, people without healthcare, kids who cannot afford college, and others struggling financially in this country due to a DISASTROUS last 8 years under a Bush administration and a Republican led Congress for 6.5 of the 8 years. Even today the news is out that the unemplyment rate has risen. The economy is the number issue for most voters (I guess most of us are just gloomy gus’s).

McCain has offered no economic relief. Barack’s plan proposes immediate stimulus packages of around $500-$1,000 for the average family that will be paid for by taxing oil companies record-breaking windfall profits.

As for women- I don’t think they’ll vote for a man who says he’ll overturn Roe v. Wade and voted against the equal pay for equal work act- saying that would mean too many lawsuits.

Also, as much as (some) people like Sarah Palin, let’s remember who’s on the top of the ticket. And that guy can’t break 45% in the polls yet.

P.S. Rudy Giuliani may not know what a community organizer is now, but he will soon when community organizers put Obama in the White House!
yyc

Obama’s “50 states” claim was that he was more likely than Hilary to pick up states like Colorado and Virginia and that Hilary’s only chance was to carry Ohio.

Obama will compete for Virginia and North Carolina and the McCain will compete for Pennsylvania but won’t expect flips in a nailbiter. McCain looks very good in Florida and the Western red states will be like home for Palin.

In the end this may just come down to which mid west and rust belt states can be flipped either way. The Dems might have been better off with Hilary in those states.

Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.
True Canadian

After seeing the CNN report on Palin’s lies and semi-truths I wonder if she is more of a liability to McCain rather than a plus to the campaign.