Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

Oh, Nanos, you mercurial scamp:(38/27/21/8/6)

by kadyomalley on Tuesday, September 23, 2008 2:09pm - 37 Comments

What was that about a Liberal bias in his methodology? Over/undersampling? Just being wrong?

Regionals, analysis, pretty graphics here for the clicking.

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  • Savant

    “The latest rolling Canadian Press Harris/Decima surveys reveal nationally, over the last four nights, the Conservatives lead with 37%, followed by the Liberals with 24%, the NDP 17%, the Green Party 11% and the BQ with 8%”

    http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downloads/pdf/news_releases/080923E.pdf

  • Wascally Wabbit

    Yawn – ALW is correct – Nanos IS the Gold Standard…
    Me – I’m waiting for tomorrow – when David Olive’s little bombshell that Harper is holding an FTA negotiation card behind his hand a la the card sharp he is – while the big boys from Europe are scheduled to come to Quebec City to kick off negotiations on OCTOBER 17th smells like he’s worried that he’ll get the Mulroney Hook…and he will – hits the headlines!
    Tra La La…

  • Ryan

    1) As far as events in life that can be quantified, elections are very rare indeed. You can’t say one pollster is the gold standard based on two elections any more than you can say the Leafs will win the Cup if they win their first two games of the year. In previous elections, Nanos polls would have been accurate anywhere within their margin of error. That they were right on the mark is little more than luck, as Nanos himself knows, otherwise they would have a margin of error of 0.

    2) Spinning polls is pointless. The nice thing about elections is that we get the real results in a few weeks, and you can’t spin the sample size or margin of error for that.

  • Jarrid

    Live by the Nanos, die by the Nanos.

  • madeyoulook

    If all pollsters would be honest and put “error bars” above and below each data point, the regional breakouts would become a well-deserved cloud of irrelevance.

    But go ahead, partisans, explain how wobbles inside the margin of error, on laughably small samples, is some giant display of your team’s invincibility and the other morons’ uselessness. Have fun with it. Then go back to school and take a stats course.

  • kody

    Thwimm,

    I see you’ve entered the final stage of losing as a Liberal:

    acceptance.

    This is a good thing. The “denial” and “anger” stages seemed to go on forever.

    Don’t you feel at peace now?

  • T. Thwim

    kody, if I were a Liberal, you might be right.

    I’m just ABC.. well.. not even that really. ABH more like. Before he took over, the PC’s had some good ideas.

  • kody

    Walk to the light, Thwim.

    The beautiful, beautiful light that is conservatism.

  • Ryan

    T. Thwim, if the federal PCs of the second Joe Clark era had an idea, good or bad, this is the first I’ve heard of it.

  • KRB

    T. Thwim: “But having to push forward now with the anti-gay, anti-abortionist, anti-rehabilitation, pro-gun, pro-punishment agenda of the so-cons would be too soon.”

    Yeah, that’s not inflammatory! Give it a rest. Seriously, it must take some energy to keep going with that narrative, in spite of the record of the government. Must be absolutely draining for you …

  • Wayne

    Hey T. next stop Step 12 of the program for PJA (political junkies anonymous) = Having had a political awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other political junkies to practice these principles in all our affairs.

  • T. Thwim

    KRB: Record? You mean like bill C-484, the so called “Kicking Abortion’s Ass” bill? Or like promises to abolishing the gun registry, eliminate house arrest for a variety of offences, releasing young offender names to taint their employment prospects forever?

    You mean in spite of that record?

    Wayne: Political awakening? Please, I’ve been living in Alberta my entire life. I’m quite aware of what real conservatives stand for and
    very aware of how that party that stood for fiscal responsibility and personal freedoms has been destroyed by the bastard love child fathered by Peter McKay and Stephen Harper. That’s why I’ll personally support any result that puts those two out to pasture for the long term.. even if it involves swallowing their vile spunk for the short term.

    Ryan: Joe Clark was the first one to come up with a type of carbon tax, as he recognized what science has been saying for years.

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