Débat des chefs: premières réactions

by Andrew Coyne on Thursday, October 2, 2008 12:25am - 34 Comments

Ipsos is first out of the gates with the insta-poll. Winner? Dion, by a wide margin. But Jack gets most “visually attractive”…

French Leaders Debate Audience Says Dion Clear Winner

1 in 5 (20%) Viewers Say They Changed Their Mind

Toronto, ON — The results of a near instantaneous Ipsos Reid/CanWest News Service survey of French-speaking Canadian voters who watched Wednesday night’s French-language leaders’ debate has revealed:

The Winner…

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion emerges as the clear winner of Wednesday’s debate with 40% of Canadian voters who viewed the French language debate saying he won, compared with 24% who feel that Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe won, 16% who feel that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper emerged victorious, 11% who feel that NDP Leader Jack Layton won, and just 1% who feel Green Leader Elizabeth May won.

Being Prime Ministerial…

Nearly four in ten (36%) found Stephane Dion (up 21 points) to be the leader who sounds and acts most like a Prime Minister, placing him ahead of Prime Minister Harper (31%, down 14 points). Gilles Duceppe was next (17%, up 4 points), followed by Jack Layton (12%, down 4 points) and Elizabeth May (1%, unchanged).

The Best Ideas and Policies…

According to 41% (up 15 points since pre-debate poll) of voters, Stephane Dion offered the best policies and ideas during the debate. In second place was Gilles Duceppe (22%, up 6 points), followed by Jack Layton (19%, down 5 points), Stephen Harper (13%, down 9 points) and Elizabeth May (1%, down 1 point).

Likeability of the Leaders…

Jack Layton scored the best in terms of likeability with 46% of viewers (down 12 points) saying that he was the most likeable and the person they’d most like to go out for a beer or coffee with. Next was Gilles Duceppe (18%, up 1 point), Stephan Dion (14%, up 5 points), Stephen Harper (10%, up 2 points) and finally Elizabeth May (9%, up 6 points).

Impressions of the Leaders…

Subtracting worsened impressions from improved impressions, opinions of Stephane Dion improved (net +56) the most as a result of the debate, while Jack Layton (net +48) also fared well. Gilles Duceppe (net +30) also had a solid performance, according to those who watched the debate, as did Elizabeth May (net +18). Opinions of Stephen Harper plummeted (net -39) among those who viewed the debate.

Improved Worsened
Stephen Harper 14% 53%
Stephane Dion 67% 11%
Jack Layton 55% 7%
Gilles Duceppe 41% 11%
Elizabeth May 42% 24%

Most Visually Attractive

One in three (33%) who viewed the debate found Jack Layton to be the most visually attractive (down 7 points), followed by Gilles Duceppe (22%, up 2 points), Stephane Dion (19%, up 13 points), Stephen Harper (15%, down 5 points), and finally Elizabeth May (5%, unchanged).

Effect of Debate on Vote…

Overall, the effect of this debate on voters’ intentions has not been insignificant. Two in ten (20%) French-speaking Canadians who watched the debate say that they have changed their mind about who to vote for on October 14 as a result of viewing the debate.

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  • Jack Mitchell

    I agree it would be nice to see, Brian, but it can’t happen with the political climate we have in Quebec right now. Even Dion’s saying “we Canadians” a couple of times was pushing the limit. Oh for the days of Trudeau.

  • Don Mitchell

    The left in this country have proved time and time again that they would much rather have sepratists as the official opposition then having conservatives as the government.

  • http://economics.about.com Mike Moffatt

    “The left in this country have proved time and time again that they would much rather have sepratists as the official opposition then having conservatives as the government…”

    and have the separatists as cabiner ministers.

    Have we forgotten the Mulroney years already? Have you forgotten where the Bloc came from?

    Yeah, I’d rather have separatists in opposition than in power. Hardly see how that makes me a bad Canadian.

  • John D

    Brian, I think it’s better to *not* hammer Duceppe, because it shows he’s not a credible-enough threat to deal with.

  • Don Mitchell

    Bloc came mainly from the PC, but there was a few libs as well. BTW listening to the debates and to the commentary from CBC and CTV, pretty much all of Quebec is seperatist in one form or another.

    But once again only Liberal values are Canadian values.

  • http://economics.about.com Mike Moffatt

    “Bloc came mainly from the PC, but there was a few libs as well.”

    The Liberals aren’t completely blameless here either… Hi Jean Lapierre!… but that being said, which party do you think is doing more to court separatist voters – the Liberals or the Conservatives?

    (Not being a supporter in either party, I don’t really have a dog in this fight)

  • DR

    Muldoon had the Parti quebecois organizing for him in Quebec when he was running. There is NO comparison.

  • KRB

    Disclosure: I’m not a francophone, so it is a bit harder to gauge who won the debate last night, when you only have the translated answers & comments, and you miss the subtle inflections of language, etc.

    Having said that, I believe Dion did well, but I would have to say that Duceppe won that debate. He was never really touched, and never really on the back foot, ever. I would rack up the “Dion wins debate” sentiment to the fact that he beat the pre-debate expectations more than any other (well, I expected him to do well here – it is his mother tongue, after all – but the overall public sentiment was down on him going into these).

    Harper was trying his best not to lose it on anyone there … it must’ve been hard (and for you too, Coyne) for him to have to listen to the likes of Layton, Duceppe and May expound on how to properly manage the economy, given their shared idiotic ideas and general naivete in that department. Listening to them was like reading all those idealistic “What I would do as PM” essays sent in by students still without a sense of the real world. No doubt Harper could’ve destroyed every fanciful economic argument advanced by the opposition leaders, but then he’d come off as a know-it-all.

    May was the anti-Harper. It was funny seeing her squirm trying to say some nice things about Harper.

    The English debate tonight is the big one. There will, I suspect, be zingers that were purposely saved for tonight’s bigger audience.

    p.s. the First-30-days plan is just so much garbage. Not as bad as Martin’s “we’ll take out the Notwithstanding clause, but it’s up there.

  • ronb

    “No doubt Harper could’ve destroyed every fanciful economic argument advanced by the opposition leaders, but then he’d come off as a know-it-all.”

    Yeah, his whole tax cuts/trickle down/deregulate mantra is really knocking ‘em dead in the land o’ Friedman these days.

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