Débat des chefs: premières réactions

First post.

Huge news. May not be all that great for Dion, but devastating for Harper.

Virtually every study that tracks “immediate response” polls to actual results show one thing:

the “immediate response” invariably turns out to not to follow the result.

Also,

the media’s desperation in wanting this to be a horse race is becoming a tad obvious.

You mean to tell me the guy who literally put his life on the line continually arguing for Canada in hostile arenas (French media, university “conférences”, talk shows, etc.) while Harper was sulking in Calgary, the guy who argued Bouchard, Landry, Turp, & all comers into the ground while Harper was proposing firewalls, the guy who’s written tons of books and articles and speeches by his own hand while Harper was repeating the prefab Bush party line via Howard, the guy who won more arguments in cabinet & caucus than any other minister, the guy who won the debates in the Liberal leadership race in his shaky 2nd language against worthies like Rae & Iggy, the guy who likes nothing better than open forums and has had about a million in this campaign while Harper hasn’t had one unfiltered question from the public…you mean that guy won?

But I thought he wasn’t a leader?
Isn’t he some weak weedy “frog” professor?
What’s he ever done in his life (see “Saving Canada, 1996-2003″)?

Geez, how to explain it? In a fair fight, mano a mano, Dion wiped the floor with the rest?

Dion great, Harper a paper tiger?

What a surprise!

Dirty liberal ordinary citizens, I say.

Unleash the blogbots!

Virtually every study that tracks “immediate response” polls to actual results show one thing:

Do you have link to one of these studies?

I’ll take that bet, kody.

Here’s one:

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2748296

This one analysis the Carter Ford debate, and refers to a “sleeper effect” in opinion formation by various social scientists to attribute the underlying reason for the difference.

Several studies within that study are cited.

Of course this is just one of many.

But forget about all that for the moment, and enjoy this evening.

The next thirteen days are going to be very rough for the Liberals as the undecideds will almost surely break for the CPC (for a whole host of reasons) leading to a significant CPC majority.

But you’ve got tonight.

There’s no tomorrow.

Paul,

CROP will publish one next week.

As will Leger.

The Washington Post on “instant polls”:

“Seeking to find answers about how much (or little) credence we should put in such polls, The Fix sought out several of the nation’s leading survey research scholars to get their opinions.

By and large, the experts said these insta-polls (for lack of a better word) are interesting but ultimately not predictive of any long-term trends. “They are of limited value because there’s a fair body of public opinion and communications research that shows that on many topics … the measurement of quick public opinion often differs from what we might call measured public opinions,” said Michael Traugott, a research professor at the University of Michigan.

Andy Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, cited a survey he conducted for Newsweek immediately following the U.S. invasion of Grenada in 1983. “People hadn’t thought about and hadn’t been affected by the way the story was unfolding,” Kohut recalled. As a result, the poll “completely underestimated” the boost the invasion had for President Ronald Reagan, he added.

There are several reasons why these insta-polls should not be used to draw sweeping conclusions, which, in fairness, neither they — nor the pollsters behind them — claim they do.”

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2748296

You are an undergrad polysci dweeb that regards plagiarism as a useful skill, and you randomly assign references because you *think* that padding your bibliography makes your 10 page essay better, right?

Did you even *read* the article?

The point was that impressions of the outcome of a debate become “polluted” with media impressions.

Sheesh.

Do you actually enjoy these public displays of your stupidity? Or are you blissfully unaware of it?

Austin

And we’ve reached stage five of ConBot propaganda…whining. Kody even inserted the tried and true “progressive tolerance” trope.

Too bad on this blog that we can not see ALL the posts of a blogger. If we could we could detect a shill for say the CONs

PS. I find the result of this “insta-poll” fascinating, no matter whether it will “stand” or not.

And finally as an aside I too would not really wanna have a beer with Harper! I’d be worried about getting stuck with the edntire tab, as I doubt that Harper would EVER belly up to the bar!!!

A better critique would be to say crosstabs crosstabs crosstabs*. However, whether this poll is valid or not it is valid because it (and another I saw in La Presse) will set the tone of the coverage, at least in Quebec, where Dion wins is the story.

Harper has nobody to blame for that than himself – while his performance was fine given the circumstances, his entire campaign has been about presenting himself as a strong leader and Dion as a mouse. The Liberals have accelerated that by largely keeping Dion out of the limelight.

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/10/pre-debate-survey/
Ekos did a poll on expectations, in Quebec it looked like this:
Who will do best in the debates?
Harper: 20%
Layton: 27%
Duceppe: 29%
May: 2%
Dion: 7%

By that token Layton was the biggest loser, Dion the biggest winner. Harper and Duceppe were moderate losers.

*Also, the “who won”/”who is the most ___” questions are more valid than the improved/worsened ones. If the 67% of Quebec voters that will never vote for Harper decided their opinion of him worsened, it doesn’t affect his chances – a question like that is likely to make Harper look bad, but does not reflect how the election will play out since there is a 4-way vote split on the left. Of real concern should be those people who previously called Harper prime ministerial and who thought he had the best ideas who have since changed their minds.

Harper should think twice before starting the English debate by using the 20 minutes on the economy he requested to say “everything is fine”. He needs ideas that will make Dion’s silly “if elected I will have meetings” look bad by comparison.