The Tories are in trouble

by Andrew Coyne on Sunday, October 5, 2008 3:24pm - 134 Comments

Ignore the daily squiggles of each individual poll — they’re meaningless noise. But average them all together, track them over time, and a picture emerges. And it adds up to trouble for the Conservatives.

It’s disturbing enough that both Harris-Decima and Nanos now have them at 34% — the first time either pollster has put them below 35% since the campaign began. A week ago, Harris had them at 39, Nanos at 38.

But it’s the overall trend that should really have Tories worried. The chart below tracks the daily average of all of the polls taken since the first days of the campaign. It doesn’t take a statistician to see what’s been happening.

I know, I know: a few days ago I was pointing out that all the parties were within a percentage point of where they started. But that’s no longer true of the Tories, and in any case the better comparison point may be with where the parties were after the first week. Both the Tories and the Liberals have dropped several points since then — the difference being that the Liberals seem to have arrested their slide. (The NDP and Bloc started badly, but have both come on since then — only to hit their apparent ceilings.)

Another warning sign for the Tories: Stephen Harper’s leadership edge over his rivals, once the Tories’ ace in the hole, is eroding. Nanos, Harris, even Angus Reid (who puts the Tories at 40%) all show the same thing. Here, first, is a graph of Nanos’s composite leadership “scorecard” over time:

Still a ways ahead, but Dion and Layton are closing.

Now here’s Nanos’s “best prime minister” data:

 

Again, a slow deterioration, with Dion’s numbers recovering.

Now here’s data from Harris-Decima, showing “positive feelings” towards the various leaders:

Harper’s the blue line in the middle. While this chart is less favourable to Dion, the striking thing is that Harper’s numbers are the only ones to have declined in the course of the campaign. Angus Reid’s numbers show the same.  

The debates don’t seem to have helped: even in the English debate, which Harper was said to have “won,” respondents in Ipsos’s instant poll said they had a lower opinion of him as a result of his debate showing  – the only leader to suffer such a fall.

I don’t want to make too much of this. But if you’re running a policy-lite “leadership” campaign, and the air is leaking out of your leader, you better hope you can get to election day without crashing.

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  • centreman

    Historically the Liberals are brilliant, they own Canada. They fragmented it, French / English, so they could reinvent it in their vision, 1982 constitution, Charter, stacked Supreme Court. Intensified the fragmentation East / West (NEP) and then present themselves as the only solution to the political problems they created.

    It really is quite brilliant. People should just get used to the fact that the Liberals own Canada. No other party has controlled a modern western democracy as long as the Liberal party. They have been in power for a longer period of time overall in Canada then the Communists in Russia from Lenin to the end of the Soviet Union.

    The bottom line is that any idea that diverges from Liberal dogma is anti-Canadian, once a political party pulls the mind trick off on the majority of people they own the country. Once you realize that fundamental point, everything makes sense in Canada’s political landscape.

    Personally I wish the Conservatives OR the NDP would win a majority just because Canada needs new ideas for the future which are unique to Canada and not imported European ideas like the Green shift. But it isn’t going to happen.

    Conservative minority “MAYBE” but don’t discount the power of the tax payer funded CBC, like Prada in the USSR to swing even more votes back to the Liberals…

  • Charles H

    centreman: Prada? In the USSR? Who knew that high-end Italian fashion labels had such a role in the affairs of the Soviet Politburo.

    (Which is to say: I think you’re missing a ‘v’.)

  • centreman

    Charles H: LOL (at myself) I can laugh at myself, good point : )

  • Alan Asselstine

    It is a short election process but it seems to be bring out the leader and party characteristics. As a retiree living in Ottawa, I was aware of the extensive controls that the Harper government imposed on all government activities with every thing requiring PMO (Prime Minister Office) approval. The firing of Lynda Keene as the nuclear watch dog and the absence of the Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer leadership in the Listeriosis outbreak. It is all about control not leadership and it is stifling the government. Now, it is stifling the Conservatives campaign.

  • Calgary Junkie

    “…don’t discount the power of the tax payer funded CBC, like Prada in the USSR to swing even more votes back to the Liberals”

    The most surprising thing about this campaign so far to me is the extent of the attacks by the
    anti-Harper groups. The Toronto Star editorials are becoming all pro-Liberal all the time, with barely a good thing to say about the NDP.
    Everything is now getting thrown into the fear mix–Bush, Iraq, de-regulation, jobs, the banks, etc etc.

    How much does fear of A motivate someone to vote B (instead of C or D or E …) ? The Libs forumla still has A = Harper, B = Liberal. The NDP forumla has switched to A = Dion, B = Layton (and fear replaced by, I would say, “who deserves your vote/who has earned it”).

    Looks like an air wars tag-team effort by the CPC and NDP for the rest of the campaign. Is there also a tag team effort behind the scenes on the ground in key ridings ? A scary thought for Liberal supporters.

  • Thomas

    Here is some non-partisan info on the merits of a carbon tax.

    http://www.carbontax.org/

    Even Google (yes, Google) has a better plan than the Conservatives for the economy and the environment.

    http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20081002-clean-energy-2030-googles-plan-to-save-the-planet.html

  • Thomas

    Okay, so we’re down to the last 10 days. At least 65% of Canadians do not want the Conservatives in power. It’s time to pick a side people. How many of you really want the NDP or the Green party to be the national government of Canada? May was smokin’ over the 2 nights. Every time Harper said something silly, she challenged him (that’s why she was talking so much!). Layton had some moments too but there are sides to the NDP’s economic and environmental plans that I am less comfortable with.

    In terms of the recent history of Canada, the Liberals have been the party which has kept Canada humming when some of the other countries in the G8 were suffering.

    Canadians have been very proud and almost smug when we compare ourselves to our USA friends. We have laughed at them for voting for Bush thinking that we would never fall into the same trap of supporting a government that is so militant, negative and wrong for the economy and the environment.

    How many of us have laughed at the USA through Rick Mercer’s Report, the Air Farce, This Hour has 22 Minutes not to mention the other comedy shows such as the Daily Show and the Colbert Report? We collectively said “Not us. We’d never be that gullible”. Yet here we are. How many of us watched the CBC documentaries on George Bush, Dick Cheney and the War in Iraq and said, “We’d never be in their shoes!”? Well, we’re pretty close to being the butt of our own joke.

    It’s time to step on the ice and put our votes where our laughter has been. If Canadians really think that the USA got it so wrong with a government that has been such a nightmare not only to its own citizens but to other countries in the world, how can we vote for the Conservatives who represent the same values as the USA Republicans?

    Let’s hope that all of us who really do not want a Conservative government will get behind the Liberals and do the centrist thing!

  • Mandur

    I don’t think the Conservatives truly understood the free ride they were given by the media in the last two elections. Now that they’re in power they’re getting a taste of what the Liberals received and they’re clearly unprepared for it. I think they truly bought into the liberal.
    The nedia still playing by the Conservative they are not fare yet with Liberal but th etime will tell when will go to under deficit.
    it’s all in thebooks they Surplus they are showing just wait and watch

  • Francien Verhoeven

    Ryan D. “Also, whether you like the Shift or not it is not nearly as simple as the massive tax grab the Tories were making it out to be. ”

    You’re right: it isn’t. However, the target levels do differ between the Green Shift and the Conservative proposed plan. Follow the complete story.

    Centreman says: “Canada needs new ideas for the future which are unique to Canada and not imported European ideas like the Green shift.”

    Canada will never be able to fit into an European manifold. But pretending to do so will look good on the international stage. Let’s have a look at what the Europeans are up to now. Let’s have a look at their funny backtracking. Second thoughts come to mind. But Canada will once again perform, well,… as “Johnny come lately”.

    We have no Canadian voice. Such voice was long ago silenced by pretending that being ‘nice’ can do the job. My point: The Liberal Green Shift once again pretends that the Canadian economy will not be hurt.

    Harper claims the opposite, even admits that the milder Conservative plan will hurt Canadians. But his voice isn’t ‘nice’ enough. His voice had been overed by anti-Preston, anti-American, anti-rational slurring long before he had a chance to speak.

    Liberals unite! We’ve almost completed our task of taking the liberal out of Liberal.

    Heil Harper (may Bush be with him)

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  • Two Cents

    Andrew,

    Is there no shame on this Board?

    A post above by a “progressive” blogger uses the phrase Quote “Heil Harper (may Bush be with him)”unquote.

    The use of words like this is disgusting. Can we not agree to put a stop to this trash?

  • Andrew

    Yes. The ungrounded Hitler comparisons don’t help the case of progressives.

  • http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/ nbt

    The Big Question

    If Harper can’t win a majority against a very weak leader and poor campaigner like Dion, will he ever??

    The Bigger Question

    Who will be the next Dalton Camp to dislodge him is he doesn’t?

  • Francien Verhoeven

    Come on Andrew and Two Cents,give me a break. For a week now I’ve been trying so hard to break on through to the other side and this morning my mind could finally do it.

    It ain’t easy shedding one’s belief that honest debate could win the day. I want to be as progressive as the best of them.

    Yahoo Harper (May Bush be pleased with him). Down with debate!

    “Hayya ‘alal-falah”

  • Pete

    Francien Verhoeven
    “Yahoo Harper (May Bush be pleased with him). Down with debate!

    “Hayya ‘alal-falah””

    Dude, stop this. You’re as bad as the ConBots like Kody and Bob Whatshisface. I actually don’t even know what your point is.

  • Charles H

    Pete: I’ve never been able to figure out if FV seriously believed the stuff they’re posting, or it’s all meant as a troll.

    I use the word incoherent too much, but at least I can see what kody’s getting at even if there’s no logic to it.

  • Francien Verhoeven

    Pete,

    ” I actually don’t even know what your point is.”

    What do you mean? I have been very clear on this. For most of the past week I have been trying to break through to the other side and this morning I could finally feel like being part of this wave overcoming us.

    What do you think Duceppe wants me to do? Harper is a liar, Harper is a cheater. That’s what he says. But I could swear that not that long ago he kept mentioning Bush’s name when talking about Harper. Oh, wait, that might have been Layton. Sorry, sometimes I get them all mixed up. I apologize.

  • KRB

    I always expected the polls to tighten up in this election. I guess I just didn’t expect it to happen this late in the game. But the debate (which was held late in the campaign) was a big part of that. My expectation (before this campaign, and still today) is that the CPC will again pull away after that tightening, but it will be touch-and-go whether they get a majority or not.

    The last couple of elections the Libs got a bounce in the last 2 days, or even at the polling booth. I don’t know if that was a switch because of Liberal party brand strength, or whether it was a stick-with-the-incumbent gain. If it’s the latter, then Harper can expect another 1-2% swing from it.

    I was fretting bigtime while the polls weren’t moving. I was in for $500 for All Other Outcomes (i.e. a minority gov’t result) on the UBC Election Stock Market, at 62 cents. It went down as far as 54 cents, and I thought for awhile there that I was screwed. But the last two days AOO’s has rocketed up, going over 80 cents yesterday. I’m out now, with a nice ‘n’ tidy profit. Though Conservative majority at 20 cents looks like it’s worth a $20 bet, to make $100.

    It would be nice to know how much each campaign has spent, relative to the spending limit, at this juncture. Apparently the CPC will be bombing the airwaves this week; just don’t know if I believe that bit of news. I guess we’ll see.

  • KRB

    Geez, just saw that Bush-Harper ad along the top … that surely is the kitchen sink from the Liberals, eh?! Frig, they’re gonna miss him.

  • Russell

    Go ahead and vote liberal. You will find out what high food and fuel prices are. Carbon green plan will only drive us into money problems. We will follow the US. economy real quick spending all that money on food and fuel. I farm and will tell you that there will not be a farmer left under the liberal goverment. Harper is the only choice in Canada right now. We must give him a majority.

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  • kurrenteventz

    If Dion is like his predecessors,we are in trouble. See why at

    http://beingcanadian.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/they-screwed-up-our-future-who-are-they/

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  • Dirk Brinkman

    The reasons for Harper’s slide is perhaps less obvious to voters too young to have watched Nixon. They would not hear the echoe of Nixon’s repeated “Let me be clear..” in Harper’s frequent use of the same phrase. They would also not make the nick name association between Nixon and Harper, with opponents calling one “tricky Dick” the other “deceiven Stephen”.
    They may however have seen Nixon’s amazing smile which became completely disassociated from his true emotions, emblamatic with two fingered victory salut as he smilingly left the white house permanently and in disgrace. What has this to do with Harper? In the leaders debate, more than any other moment, the camera caught the disconnect between Harper’s near smirk smile, which appearred no matter what an opponent said. This smile was at many times a lie, especially when the opposition leaders, Elizabeth May most penetratingly, reminded voters who Harper was not too many years ago, a Reform leader who characterized universal medicare as eveidence that Canada was a failed socialist state. The smile, or in that context, near smirk, did not change. Harper comes across as inauthentic. People are not buying the sales pitch that the road to power has made him moderate. And it is the revealing inauthenticity of the smirk/smile that triggers the emotional response that his are calculated remarks, not spoken from the heart. Contrast that with Dion’s authenticity, which shines through despite his language problem, and you have the explanation of why Harpers polls are falling while Dion’s are rising.

  • clancop

    I think in the end we will be left with another Conservative minority especially with Liberal voters, like myself and others I am close to, are disgusted with Dion himself. I don’t trust a man who couldn’t cut it in Environment Canada to be Prime Minister. I stood behind Paul Martin, and I will continue to defend him as a Prime Minister I believed in, but I won’t simply follow party lines and vote for a man who has split the Liberals.

    http://clancop.wordpress.com

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