Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

Tuesday's North Bay nugget was a fellow named Dion

by Paul Wells on Wednesday, October 8, 2008 5:00pm - 49 Comments

Yet another Inkless videoblog, this time from a Tuesday-night rally in the riding of incumbent Liberal MP Tony Rota. Whatever Dion ate on the plane before this event, the Liberals will want to keep feeding it to him.

Tags: North Bay, Nugget, Stéphane Dion

More by Paul Wells

http://arandomprocess.blogspot.com/ Andrew E

So, let’s say the Conservatives get a plurality of seats next week, but the Liberals + NDP together form a majority. What happens then? Status quo ante, or Layton gets to be the finance minister in Dion’s government?
KRB

I’m wondering the same thing myself. No doubt that Dion would adopt most of the NDP platform (i.e. no carbon tax) to become PM.

I think it’s still not likely that Libs + NDP > 154, but it’s definitely possible that Libs + NDP > CPC. However, in that scenario the Libs would have to be reasonably close in seat totals to the CPC (like 120 to 110) … otherwise the NDP gains a lot of power in that government. If it’s that scenario (120 to 110), then perhaps the Libs can get the NDP to support them via an agreement, much like Rae-Peterson in Ontario circa ’85. If it’s a bigger gap (say 125-100), then the NDP would likely demand to be a part of any gov’t, with a minister in at least one big portfolio.

Having said all this, if they do not form a majority between them, then to form a gov’t requires explicit or tacit go-ahead from the Bloc, and that could be a bridge too far to travel for either party. Needing the seperatist party to ensure your gov’ts stability is pretty radioactive stuff. It wouldn’t play well in English Canada, and it would be hard for the Bloc to support the federalist party with the biggest centralizing tendencies, without losing face in their own province.
DR

Did you follow him to MuchMusic too? I only ask because I’m shallow and I want to know if Hannah is just as lovely in person.
Andrew

You mean like Harper in this past parliament? I don’t see the difference.
de

Can someone break out the numbers whereby a party that gets 30% of the vote, much of it highly concentrated in a couple of locations, gets the “plurality” of the seats. I don’t have another theory about what will happen. This is starting to look very complicated. I don’t think national polls tell us much.

Harper suddenly looks confused and tired and Dion has inexplicably picked up momentum. Layton has wind in his sails. Duceppe will win the battle for Quebec. Is it not beginning to look like a disasterous reversal for the Cons?

Just curious.
Jack Mitchell

Tony Rota really has that Justin Trudeau look going. Or is Trudeau stalking Dion around the country?
http://arandomprocess.blogspot.com/ Andrew E

I find it very unlikely that the Bloc would play ball with Dion, given the Clarity Act.

The Peterson-Rae government formed a majority in the Ontario legislature. I don’t think Rae or any NDP member had a cabinet post, so I’m not sure what exactly they got out of it.

As far as I know, a coalition government, where the entire coalition had only a minority of seats, would be unprecedented in Canada. Also, note that you need not have a plurality of seats in Parliament to be the Prime Minister. Here’s how it could play out: Harper faces parliament after the election and immediately loses a confidence vote. The GG, by tradition, then approaches the leader of the second party, Dion. Dion could continue to govern with the tacit approval of the opposition parties and hope that Harper resigns as Conservative leader, after a disappointing campaign, which would give him about a year to govern.

One wonders if there is a requirement for parliament to meet within a certain amount of time of the election? I can also imagine Harper putting that off as long as possible.
Pete

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Sure, Dion looks pimp-tastic, but that doesn’t mean he’ll win. I still think Harper will take the minority, but maybe weaker, and Dion might get to keep his job.
Sophie-Marie

I am curious- is a con-lib tie physically possible (my question mark won’t work)
If so, what happens (question mark)
kody

Meanwhile the Globe says in its headline that

a “Defensive” Harper stands by his economic plan.

Editorializing against Harper,

today’s agenda driven media.
Charles H

Sophie-Marie: Of course it’s physically possible.

In such a situation, what I’d expect would be that Harper, having formed the previous government, would be given the option of trying to form the new one. I’d also expect to see a showdown over who exactly becomes Speaker of the House, as in that situation neither party would be wanting to lose a vote by having one of their MPs as Speaker.
kody

If you believe the polls right now, and the trends,

Dion
http://arandomprocess.blogspot.com/ Andrew E

It is physically possible, though with 308 seats it’s pretty unlikely. A tie happens at the provincial level from time to time. The most recent one that I’m aware of is in 1998 in Nova Scotia, where the Liberals and Conservatives tied with 19 seats each, and the NDP trailed with 14. Traditionally, the previous governing party gets first shot at forming a government. So if the Liberals and Conservatives tied, Stephen Harper would still be the Prime Minister.
Charles H

kody: I finally get it! I finally get your posts! They’re meant to be poetry!

It explains everything: the over-use of newlines, the sentence fragments, everything!
kody

If you believe the polls right now, and the trends,

Dion WILL win the election, by a nose.

The game plan of keeping Harper to a minority, ousting Dion for a stronger leader, and winning a majority after taking Harper down at the first opportunity,

is being replaced by,

Dion staying in power, having the fragilist minority in history, with a CPC party flush with cash, and having a new more charismatic leader (perhaps Bernard Lord???), and a trigger on taking Dion down, in the midst of an economic meltdown.

60% of Liberals right now are desperately worried that Dion ekes out a slight win.
http://arandomprocess.blogspot.com/ Andrew E

Say I’m a Conservative backbencher, from a safe Conservative seat. I’ve been letting the PMO walk all over me because this was a minority situation — I’ve been staying out of the media, letting the PM make announcements germane to my riding, and so on. Then the leader pulls the plug at a time of his choosing, looking like he can finally score the coveted majority against an opposition leader who makes buttered toast look charismatic, and then not only does he lose the majority, but loses seats. Am I going to toe the line for another couple of years, or am I going to start looking around for someone who can deliver?
kody

Funny, I’ve made this point in previous threads and its met by a very telling silence by the partisan liberals that inhabit this blog.

The professor with his wacky sociology like experiments on our economy at a time of economic uncertainty,

with a bare, bare lead, and a conservative party flush with cash and invigorated by a new leader.

Some would argue this is the best route to a conservative majority in a long, long time.

Joe Clark anyone????
KRB

Sophie, Harper remains the PM until he resigns or is defeated. Theoretically, Paul Martin could’ve reconvened the House after the last election to test whether he still had the confidence of the House. Thankfully, our leaders don’t drag out the inevitable, and so if they’re beaten they resign soon afterwards.

But the current PM always has first shot at testing the House after an election.
Sophie-Marie

Oh, okay.
But there’s no precedent at the federal level, correct^
Dave

“Dion staying in power, having the fragilist minority in history, with a CPC party flush with cash, and having a new more charismatic leader (perhaps Bernard Lord???), and a trigger on taking Dion down, in the midst of an economic meltdown.”

In case you haven’t been paying attention, Dion seems to thrive in challenging situations. If he wins a minority government, I would expect he’ll be very successful at compromising to gain the support of the other parties.

If the Conservatives lose, I agree that Harper could be pushed out. But after the way he’s run that party, I think they’d find themselves in utter chaos at that point.
Ian

kody, if we’re playing “what if”, what if it’s a stable minority (NDP + Green? agree to prop up the Libs) and Dion does something completely wacky and respects the fixed-election date legislation? Maybe unlikely, but if so you’ve got 4 years of waiting.
Charles H

kody: I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: Bernard Lord? Charismatic? Ha!

Photogenic? Yes. Charismatic or even more importantly a good leader/campaigner? I laugh.

I’ve posted it elsewhere, but a brief history of Bernard Lord, Premier of NB:

To start with, he only managed to get elected the first time because the electorate was ticked at the Liberal Party of New Brunswick over a highway toll. Not charisma, not major plans — he got voted in by opposing what the previous government (in power for over 10 years, so there was a degree of fatigue as well) had done. He then royally screwed the pooch financially on the highway toll issue once in power, but that’s another story.

A second election came around, and he only barely held on power. “Skin of his teeth” doesn’t begin to describe it. Then, roughly 3 years in, he needed to call a by-election which he almost certainly wouldn’t win — there were fairly large protests against his govt.’s policies on the front lawn of the legislature around this time — so he called a general election instead. (A by-election loss would have meant a minority.)

As for the results of that election, well… There’s a reason why he’s not leader of the NB PC Party anymore.
http://arandomprocess.blogspot.com/ Andrew E

Forget Bernard Lord. Myron Thompson is tanned, rested, and ready.
Ian

Incidentally, am I imagining things or has Dion’s Worst Nightmare talking point been changed from “crushing defeat in 2008″ to “pathetic win, followed by crushing defeat in 2009 after the CPC dumps Harper for someone better”.
Hazzard

Kody, short of an outright majority for the Liberals which still seems impossible. I just don’t see the Conservatives ousting Harper unless he ousts himself. If Harper doesn’t win a majority, his core support will remain what it’s always been…..Alberta…..Reform. And that core isn’t going to drop an “Albertan” for Bernard Lord or anyone else from any parts east of Medicine Hat!