Hardly Decimated: (32/27/19/12/8)

by kadyomalley on Thursday, October 9, 2008 11:11am - 47 Comments

Sneak peek at today’s offering from Harris Decima, which has something for everyone to dismiss as unreliable, inconsistent and the result of a rogue poll. Except for BlocWatchers, since my dealer didn’t have that number. I’ll update with a link to the full data as soon as it goes up, but this will tide us over for now:

Conservatives: 32 (+1)

Liberals: 27 (-)

NDP: 19 (-1)

Bloc Quebecois: 8 (-)

Greens: 12 (-)

UPDATE: A little more detail.

UPDATEDIER: Finally! All the details!

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  • http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com Scott Tribe

    On the Star story, the BQ is listed at 8% (which translates in this poll to leading with 36%)

  • boudica

    The NDP and Greens are holding steady. Not good for the Libs. Not good at all.

  • http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com Scott Tribe

    …in Quebec

  • http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com Scott Tribe

    Hardly devastating however, Boudica, considering where these #’s were -considering this poll showed a 15 point Cons lead a week ago, I’m not exactly scared by a 5 point one. We still have a few days to go.. and voters from those two parties historically switch to the Liberals on election day.

  • http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

    Did you change the numbers, Kady. I would have sworn Cons were 36%(+4) a few minutes ago. Was that a different poll?

  • Wascally Wabbit

    Now you see it – now you don’t!
    Boudica – Jack is throwing everything including the kitchen sink into his ads. at the mo – AND BLEEDING WOMEN SUPPORTERS…
    According to the friendly grey haired guy (whose name I forget) the movement among the subgroups are very interesting – Harper’s uptick today is almost exclusively male – he has been steadily losing women and voters over 50+ – precisely the ones guaranteed to come out to the polls…so – his Sweater Boy image obviously did not convince the target market he was seeking to convert.

  • http://www.macleans.ca Kady O’Malley

    Yes, I was looking at the wrong data. Apologies! As soon as I realized it, I corrected my numbers, but I wasn’t fast enough for the likes of you.

  • Wascally Wabbit

    Oops – I meant the grey haired guy on CBC Newsworld..
    And as for Jack – women are the core of his party – not good for Jack…

  • Wascally Wabbit

    At this rate – based upon the differences of the methodology – I fully expect Nik to show the Libs level or even slightly ahead today across Canada…I was originally forecasting a stastistical tie – within the +/- 3.1 Margin of error..
    now I fully expect to see someothing like CPC 32 Libs 32…+/- 1

    OK Jarrid and bub – take a kick at that!

  • http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

    No problems Kady. I was hoping that was another national poll you were looking at but no such luck, I guess.

    I find it awfully weird that supporters seem to be moving between Libs&Green or Con&NDP. I assume they are one issue voters and see things that I clearly don’t.

  • Dot

    one, two, three, four, five, six, nine, and ten.
    money can’t buy you back the love that you had then.
    one, two, three, four, five, six, nine, and ten.
    money can’t buy you back the love that you had then.
    oh, oh, oh,
    you’re changing your heart.
    oh, oh, oh,
    you know who you are.
    oh, oh, oh,
    you’re changing your heart.
    oh, oh, oh,
    you know who you are.

  • Pete

    “comment by boudica on Thursday, October 9, 2008 at 11:13 am:

    The NDP and Greens are holding steady. Not good for the Libs. Not good at all.”

    Who’s to say? I think it’s better for the Libs to lose this election to a Harper minority, and install Ignatieff as leader.

    The nightmare scenario for me was a Harper majority. No way that’s happening now.

    Besides, another 1.5-2 years of Harper minority might just convince Green and NDP supporters that they need to give the Libs a shot.

  • dan in van

    Those NdP and Greens who are serious about stopping Harper have to consider the man’s own words, spoken just a few days ago (I’m assuming Harper was using his own words!) that a second minority mandate would be taken as even a stronger approval… Unlike a mandate, which would be superdillyiciously strongest!
    There remains some fluidity, but we’re getting close to core numbers here.

  • Jim

    Liberals deleriously happy about running 1% below their all time worst showing in history.

    Here’s something weird…

    “Leadership-Positive Feelings”: Duceppe highest at 59% for Canada. May and Layton in low 50s, Harper at 42, Dion at 40.

  • T. Thwim

    Pete: I don’t think the Liberal party can handle a leadership convention at the moment. The costs of it would basically make it completely impossible for them to oppose the conservatives (again) when the inevitable confidence votes start to push through.

    Flanagan even pointed this out as being part of Harper’s larger strategy. A liberal leadership convention will not only give the conservatives a de facto majority this term, but quite possibly for many years thereafter.

  • Jobu

    Wow… LPC is tied with the Greens in 3rd/4th place in BC. Wouldn’t that be something if the LPC finished 4th!

  • Two Cents

    The leadership numbers simply prove that voters aren’t really paying attention when they comment on May or Duceppe. Since voters do not expect May or Duceppe ever to hold power they are held to entirely different standards than the leaders of real parties.

  • BC Voice of Reason

    Just saw the Q&A in Halifax where Dion was asked tougher questions and interupted when he started his “family of 4 making 60,000 will get $1400 income tax (about half of the beer and popcorn child support)”.

    Mansbridge started open season when he gave Dion the opportunity to delay Green shift with the global economic crisis… but the professor said that even though he needs the advice of the experts to reduce the amount withdrawn from the RRIFs, the Green Shift was all systems go to save the economy. As well he said Canada would be a lot better if they put Green Shift in 10 years ago. When will someone call him on this as being a critism of the greatest Finance Minister in the History of Canada. Obviously in Dion’s world Martin screwed up big time with this missed opportunit. Through the blame at the environment Minister and Chretien as well.

    At the press conference he basically called Kevin Page’s Afganistan incremental cost presentaion a lie. He said the real numbers would be revealed when he was Prime Minister. Does he not get along or believe the the competence / integrity of the Civil service?

    I think and hope the free ride is over. Up until now the media has handled Dion with kid gloves, but the spectre of PM Dion must have scared them into doing due diligence in vetting his credentials.

  • T. Thwim

    BC: Kevin Page called his own incremental cost presentation a lie. He said quite specifically that he wasn’t able to get the numbers from the various government departments he needed in order to do a fully rigorous analysis.

  • BC Voice of Reason

    On the real incremental Afghanistan costs:

    Mr. Page seemed satisfied with his numbers and was pleased with the quality and effort of his team.

    Should the Linda Keen level bureaucrats that were unable or couldn’t provide the numbers be held accountable and replaced? There will be a list of Green Shift supporting economists looking for deputy minister appointments :).
    Is that how Dion will get the real numbers? Or will the unavailable numbers just magically come out because the civil service just likes the Liberals? Either way sounds like there is something wrong when it takes 6 months to extract this info.

    I haven’t seen the list of the hundred or so economists supporting the Green shift. I wonder if their credentials stand up as well as those of the 5000 or so scientists whose petition says that man has negligible impact on Global warming.

  • http://www.299bloorcallcontrol.com Laurence

    Latest Nanos is up:

    http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-9-2008E.pdf

    No change from day before (33/29/20/10/7)

  • http://www.299bloorcallcontrol.com Laurence

    Interesting to note that Dion’s trust and competence, and vision ratings are going up, while Harper is down on all of them.

  • BC Voice of Reason

    I have been multi-tasking: watching the markets and the election coverage at the same time. Every time Dion and/or Layton have a Press conference, where they invariably support an economic doomsday scenario and Green Shift or tax the successful businesses until they need direct focused Government support, the TSX plummets. When Harper talks the Markets recover. This proves that the economic crisis is Harper’s fault. Why can’t he keep talking!!!

  • stewacide

    The possibility of a Liberal-NDP coalition government really has me scared for the future of the country. Considering how slim the Conservatives plurality was last time I think that’s a real possibility now.

    The first truly leftist and green federal government in Canadian history implementing wildly populist and recklessly experimental policies against the backdrop of an unprecedented global economic downturn (which Canada is in good position to weather due to decades of prudent small-c-conservative government)… I’m concerned :(

    What I find hardest to understand is how so many sane, centrist Liberals (the Chretiens, Martins, Manleys, etc. types) are sticking with the party despite it’s radical shift leftward and green-ward under Dion. Do these people have that much attachment to some meaningless ‘brand’ that they’d follow it over a cliff?

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