From last week’s debate:
Canada is not the U.S., Mr. Harper said, adding that Canadians are not in danger of losing their homes or their jobs.Mr. Dion shot back that Mr. Harper’s do-nothing attitude is endangering Canadian prosperity…
“The economy is not fine and if you talk to Canadians that’s what they’ll tell you. Either you don’t care or you’re incompetent. Which is it?” NDP leader Jack Layton charged, scoffing at Harper’s suggestion that Canadians are more worried about the plummeting stock market than losing their homes…
‘You’re so out of touch with people when you say they’re not worried about losing their jobs and losing their homes,’ Ms. May said after Harper suggested Canadians are worried about the stock market drop, not about jobs…
From the Globe and Mail, via Worthwhile Canadian Initiative:
An estimated 20,000 to 25,000 Canadian home owners are currently in arrears, said Will Dunning, chief economist at the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP), in a report released Monday.This means about 0.3 per cent of Canada’s 8.05 million home owners are behind on their mortgages by three months or more, he said.
By contrast, arrears in Canada hit about 0.7 per cent in 1992, as the effects of the housing bubble in the late 1980s and early 1990s worked their way through the mortgage market, Mr. Dunning said….
The closest comparison to Canadian arrears levels in the United States are 90-day mortgage delinquencies, Mr. Tal said. They are now in the 2 to 3 per cent range, meaning that about 1.5 million U.S. home owners are currently in delinquency.
In August, the last month for which data were available, one in every 416 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing, a 12 per cent increase from July and a 27 per cent increase from August, 2007.
National foreclosure statistics aren’t available in Canada, but lenders say the rate is low, and hasn’t shown an appreciable increase over last year.
At 70 per cent, the equity Canadians have in their homes has also been increasing over the past decade, while in the United States that level has slipped to below 50 per cent, Mr. Dunning said.
The U.S. housing collapse was a crisis brought on by overuse of subprime mortgages. Thus, Mr. Tal said, it’s important to remember that at its peak risky mortgages made up 5 per cent of the market in Canada, compared with 33 per cent in the U.S.
When will this Prime Minister do something show he cares about this avalanche entirely unremarkable rate of foreclosures?
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So who all is buying these days? Like piling your cash into the markets these days? Could Harper make a more emphatic statement than showing his investment portfolio to the public and on it have a swath of big buys from the last couple days. It won’t happen of course….and I doubt there are any purchases anyway. Same with Coyne and most other Con supporters here.
Bush et al were telling Americans everything was okay too. RIght up until it all fell out from beneath them. Canada is in better shape, but we’d be naive not to think the US troubles won’t spill over and cause more grief up here. Long term investors have the luxury of capitalizing on this moment. Folks like my Dad (64 years old and pondering retirement) and my inlaws (already retired) don’t quite have that luxury do they?
I think the real issue with Harper and the economy is his inability to express an understanding of what Canadians are feeling.
If that’s the case, if that is what Canadians are basing their votes upon, then we are all doomed… forever. The day I vote according to how well a candidate expresses “what I’m feeling” is the day I should have my voting rights stripped from me.
Serendipity, seniors were forced into the care of their families due to the income trust decision? Did you post that with a straight face?
Lots of red on my IPhone stocks widget. Could the Dow…*shriek*…drop below 9000?
Be back in 20 minutes with a much-anticipated update.
I’m actually convinced that I’m supposed to be panicking, I just can’t decide what I’m supposed to be panicking about.
The opposition parties tell me that the economy is in such a fragile state that I should panic in that Harper’s not going to do anything to save it.
The government tells me that the economy is in such a fragile state that I should panic, because if the Liberals get elected it will destroy the economy.
It seems to me that ALL of our political parties are interested in getting me all worked up and worried about an upcoming catastrophe. They just have different notions of what horrible future I should fear. The Harper message, imho, isn’t so much “Don’t panic”. It’s “Don’t panic about THAT, panic about THIS!”
Luckily, as I think they’re all full of it, for now, I think I’ll forgo panicking.
*cough* *cough*
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/politicalbytes/2008/10/a_change_of_tune.html
Ti-Guy,
Little red, little green, it will vary throughout the day. Best described as sideways, movements up and down are pretty much under 1%….normal noise.
Days like this indicate market is looking for info and direction or a bottom or top is reached. In this case people would be looking for a bottom.
Point being it looks like the storm is pausing. But my point is, and you and others demonstrate it well, the Libs and Dippers need to find bad ews, you are invested in bad news, the poitical equivalent of short sellers.
When things dont look like bad then the narrative is undercut, a short squeeze….a couple of sideways days and reassurring noises will put the squeeze on. But who knows if that will happen, this was a major bubble burst and there will be effects. But to call them unprecendented, to not recognize the strength in Canada and its position risks being caught in the short squeeze.
The squeeze may not happen till after the election and then the Dippers and Lib strategy will have been successful. Once again we shall see.
But Canada has been a relative island of calm in all of this. I think you would be hard pressed to find another country that doesnt wish it was in Canada’s position.
Relative vs absolute arguments are tough to make, so the cons have an uphill battle.
Yep Coyne, and what happens when those US homeowners who are in arrears stop buying stuff, you know, like cars and lumber from up North.
Eh? You know as well as everyone that there is a time lag between the US sneezing and Canada catching a cold, to use a well worn analogy.
I can tell you that this issue is ALL anyone at work talks about, and I work for a gas utility, the most stable employers there are. It’s all my parents talk about, and one’s a professor and the other is a teacher. So you can imagine what’s going through the head of someone who’s a technician at a manufacturing plant in Ontario.
Davy,
The rest of Flaherty’s statement reinforces Harper’s message that the Canadian economy and financial sector are sound and the Conservative government took early action to protect this:
the IMF predicts that Canada will lead the G7 in growth in 2009…Canada is in a strong position to deal with this global crisis.
Canada’s banks and financial systems are sound and well capitalized and are less leveraged than their international peers.
Our financial system is strongly regulated and our mortgage system is sound…We announced additional steps this summer to further protect and strengthen our housing market.
…our approach—to the supervision of financial institutions, to deposit insurance and to mortgage finance—has served us well.
we have taken a number of actions that have allowed us to weather the storm better than most G7 countries up until this point.
we will continue to take strong action with prudent decisions and policies, and will take any additional measures that are necessary to ensure that we can navigate through these turbulent waters.
Who listens to the IMF anymore?
Here is a good discussion of Libor….and a decent recent history lesson on what has happened and what is happening. Well worth the read
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aAm0SVGQnyFU&refer=home
Pete, will the waters keep rising and affect us, a definite possibility. Is there much more the government can do over and above what it is doing, thats open for debate.
Thanksgiving Dinner is the important one as this gets hashed out amongst families and friends, as is the lead in.
What happens in the US and world markets on Monday might just drive this election. Cons hoping for a no news or slow news day on the markets and the Libs and NDP hoping for a slaughter.
Libor is canary in the coal mine economically. As it returns to normal levels then things will be start back on the mend.
“Canada’s banks and financial systems are sound and well capitalized and are less leveraged than their international peers. ”
Oh, yeah, that’s real rich coming from you neo-cons and Coyne himself. Real rich.
The ONLY reason Canada’s banks are as strong as they are is because they were denied mergers in the 90’s, and because they are regulated up the wazoo.
Who was in favour of deregulating the banking industry in Canada? Would that be you, Andrew Coyne? Who was in favour of the bank mergers in principle? Mr. Coyne?
From your column on Wednesday, December 16th, 1998.
“Reform financial services regulation. Take away the banks’ protections. Then let them merge. ”
From June 1999
“The consumer interest is best protected not by regulation, but by competition. The intent is the same in either case: to bend capital in the service of the public interest, for which the consumer interest is usually (though not always) a reliable proxy. But between the two, regulation most often comes a poor second. ”
Hmm. Canadian banks – regulated. U.S. banks – competetive. Who came out on top?
“But my point is, and you and others demonstrate it well, the Libs and Dippers need to find bad ews, you are invested in bad news, the poitical equivalent of short sellers.”
Stephen, that generalised comment removes you from “the moment.” It’s important in to say in character.
Look…More green! Everything’s comin’ up roses!
Ti-Guy: “Who listens to the IMF anymore?”
Weren’t Dion and Layton quoting it when the forecast was bad for Canada? When will you stop your relentless attacks on Dion’s character?
What on earth is wrong with everybody? Why can’t you see this very simple, very clear situation?
We all know the banks are strong (although I actually thought they were stronger than they are–in that I didn’t know we had ANY sub-prime type mortgages). That’s great, but that doesn’t mean our jobs won’t be affected because of the U.S. recession. With our customers unable to buy our stuff, that means layoffs. With a credit squeeze for our businesses, that just makes it worse. If you lose your job and can’t get another, similar one in a reasonable period of time (like in a recession) that means it affects your ability to stay in your home.
“Average” Canadians can see this stuff coming. “Average” Canadians worry about stuff they see coming EVEN IF THEY ARE FINE AT THIS EXACT MOMENT. And we are voting for who will be our Prime Minister for the next 2? 4? years–not who will be Prime Minister for the next day or week.
Oh come on, Jenn. Mr Harper has already said that he can’t proceed in a minority parliament with no assurance as to when the other parties are going to pull the plug.
Therefore, if Mr. Harper gets elected with another minority, he’ll obviously be calling another election within a day or a week. So everything’s fine.. honest. Hey, would he lie to you?
Jenn,
Yes, but beyond hand-wringing and convincing posing (“I feel your pain”) by our esteemed leaders, what do you want them to do?
Good point, T. Thwimm, but spending another 3.1 million or whatever an election costs us, isn’t my idea of doing something to minimize the coming recession.
I simply want them to recognize that “losing their homes” is a very real worry. I want them to look at what, if any, possibilities there are to reduce the impact.
Personally, I think now is a good time to deal with our aging infrastructure–yes, it will put us in a deficit position but I suspect we’ll end up there anyway, and at least we might as well get something out of it. This is not to say that I don’t want them to do everything possible to minimize the amount of deficit (like, for example, spa treatments or an unneccesary election). Mind you, I’m not an expert on governmental budgets or an economist. But I do know you’ll never find a solution if you don’t look for one.
Oh, and when I say “now” I don’t mean right this minute. I mean over the next year or two.
Jenn,
Are you saying a huge new tax on carbon, followed by a massive jump in social spending isn’t going to help…? Say it isn’t so….
JCL
I’m gonna go ahead and say that if people start to lose jobs because of a recession (and yes, we’re now using the ‘R’ word), it’s fair to say that people will be unable to maintain mortgage payments. Ergo, the talk about Canadians worrying about losing their housing is quite relevant.
You truly see the world through blue-coloured glasses.
Message for Mr. Coyne! Message for Mr. Andrew Coyne?
Mr. Coyne, your readership invites you to take the rest of the night off. There will be no need for any discussion of real FACTS on the nation’s economic shape today; Macleans.ca is currently pre-occupied with more important issues: present vs. future tenses in the English language and the despicability of a journalist.
That is all sir, if you could sign next to the red X. Thank you, the yellow copy is yours. Good night, sir!
Mr Layton in the big league!
After years of pointing fingers and attaching everyone in power, it has become an obsession. He might be more interested in a big opposition than governance. Jack has been stealing tag lines from his idol the US democratic Obama and has been stealing the green colour of the Green party. Kitchen table issues!
I wonder if the old socialist has anything of his own to say. Maybe he realizes that it is easier to be in opposition for life than to govern for two years! Or maybe he realized that his socialist, union mentality of treating the most incompetent and the most productive the same does not work.
However, about 20% of Canadians don’t seem to see through him. Perhaps power corrupts, even virtual power. Does Ontario remember the NDP government of Mr Ray? N.D.P. No Damn Progress!