What a long, strange trip it’s be — hey, wait a second. This looks oddly familiar:
Conservatives: 34.2 (+1.2)
Liberals: 26.7 (+0.7)
NDP: 21.4 (-0.6)
Greens: 8.2 (-0.8)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.5 (-0.5)
Undecided: 17 (-1)
Mix in the last numbers from Harris Decima (34/26/19/9/11) — but don’t forget Strategic Counsel (33/28/18/11/10) which came out last night, but I was too busy with other stuff to post – sorry about that, guys. Finally, check out the latest projections from Democratic Space (128/92/34/52/2) and the Election Prediction Project (125/94/36/51/2) – and once you’ve digested all that, and exhausted your favourite seat projector, be sure to post your picks to the ITQ prediction thread before 9 p.m. EST.
UPDATE: Okay, I couldn’t resist. According to the H&K Seat Projector, the pollsters are predicting the following results:
NANOS: 122/83/52/51/0
HARRIS DECIMA: 129/81/41/56/1
STRATEGIC COUNSEL: 118/103/33/54/0
EKOS: 133/83/38/53/1
Note that the Independent Star Factor (ISF) is not taken into account in these calculations, so feel free to tweak accordingly. (I take one from the Tories and one from the Bloc Quebecois to make up the difference, but that may not be, strictly speaking, scientific.)
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Yeah, a riding specific-call by a pollster who uses such small sample sizes (but claims to make up for it with extra-accurate methodology) is a little suspect.
Margo the Psychic on NewsWorld says that we will have a majority but not this election. Probably the next election …. next week ?
She says we will be “pleasantly surprised” and that when the majority comes “the world will be very happy for us” because the world will see that government as “very good for the world”.
Imagine the possibilities if Margo the Psychic is right and, you know, …… psychic.
David Akin has a nice item on the prominent ridings in play on his blog.
Agree with BCVOR. The Oracle of Nanos’s reputation survives Tuesday. If all the pollsters are close he points to his 3 day sample. If the Cons exceed he points to a small one day sample.
He who polls last laughs best.
[...] gamble pay off? We won’t know until tomorrow, of course. But none of the final public opinion polls released today put the Conservatives in majority territory (although a substantial number of [...]