Comments on: UPDATED: Behold the tyrannanosity of the majority (34.2/26.7/21.4/8.2/9.5))

By: A politically expedient payoff? « echenblog

A politically expedient payoff? « echenblog — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 07:01:52 +0000

[...] gamble pay off? We won’t know until tomorrow, of course. But none of the final public opinion polls released today put the Conservatives in majority territory (although a substantial number of [...]

By: Michael

Michael — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 02:12:10 +0000

Agree with BCVOR. The Oracle of Nanos’s reputation survives Tuesday. If all the pollsters are close he points to his 3 day sample. If the Cons exceed he points to a small one day sample.

He who polls last laughs best.

By: Sisyphus

Sisyphus — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 01:12:02 +0000

David Akin has a nice item on the prominent ridings in play on his blog.

By: Sisyphus

Sisyphus — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 01:09:40 +0000

Margo the Psychic on NewsWorld says that we will have a majority but not this election. Probably the next election …. next week ?
She says we will be “pleasantly surprised” and that when the majority comes “the world will be very happy for us” because the world will see that government as “very good for the world”.

Imagine the possibilities if Margo the Psychic is right and, you know, …… psychic.

By: Mike T.

Mike T. — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 00:04:39 +0000

Yeah, a riding specific-call by a pollster who uses such small sample sizes (but claims to make up for it with extra-accurate methodology) is a little suspect.

By: Mark Bourrie

Mark Bourrie — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 00:00:43 +0000

Nanos and Strategic Counsel say Highway Bill Casey’s not coming back?!? I don’t buy that.

By: A reader

A reader — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 23:59:15 +0000

Ooops. Wrong thread.

By: A reader

A reader — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 23:52:26 +0000

Pr___C___L___N___B__G__I
————————
NL___1___4___2__________
PE___2___2______________
NS___2___5___3______0__1
NB___7___2___1__________
QC___7__11___4__52_____1
ON__45__34__27__________
MB___9___1___4__________
SK__10___1___3__________
AB__27_______1__________
BC__18___2__16__________
NU___________1__________
NT___________1__________
YT_______1______________
————————
CA_128__63__63__52__0__2

Con: 126
Lib: 63
NDP: 63
BlQ: 52
Grn: 0
Ind: 2 – Casey, Arthur

The Liberals are going to lose seats in Ontario that all the prediction models don’t catch, I believe.

Numbers like these would make for a very interesting Parliament …

By: DLF

DLF — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 23:33:09 +0000

Any body know what happened to DemocraticSpace?

Their site account has been suspended.

Bandwidth over, maybe?

By: Jim

Jim — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 22:52:29 +0000

So the Liberal hired expert says Cadman tapes WERE altered.

By: michele

michele — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:13:41 +0000

sorry…he is supporting ndp to stop Liberals.

By: michele

michele — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:12:43 +0000

In CP 24 lunch online show…conservative that has a condidate in his riding that wont win is supporting NDP

By: Wascally Wabbit

Wascally Wabbit — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 19:47:10 +0000

Yup – let’s let the Friedman-iacs back into power – ‘cos THEY know the trickle down hands off free the marketplace way to do things…
Now – let me get my calculator out – how much has that sadly condemned economic ideology cost poor suckers around the world this last month…and Canadians think that four more years of the same is the risk-free choice?
Time to get out the single malt (and THAT’s about the ONLY thing I have in common with Scott Reid)

By: Jay L

Jay L — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 19:20:36 +0000

Don’t count on the undecideds – at this point, for the most part, undecided = won’t vote. I predict a record low voter turnout.

Looks like we’ll be right back where we started, and the story on Oct. 15 with be WHAT THE **** WAS THIS ELECTION FOR????

By: Mike514

Mike514 — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 19:06:54 +0000

…unless US stocks plunge in the remaining few hours of trading today. It wouldn’t help Tories to have tomorrow’s newspapers screaming about stocks sliding further.

By: Mike514

Mike514 — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 19:05:19 +0000

News in tomorrow’s paper that the US stock market has gone up today will probably help boost the Tories. Confidence in the economy will shift some undecideds into the Tory column.

By: Mike Moffatt

Mike Moffatt — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:57:31 +0000

“I think NDP turnout will be very close to what the polls say (20-21%), their supporters seem to be very enthusiastic, but Green total will drop down to around 6%.”

As a Green supporter, I fear that you’re probably right.

A reasonable goal for the Greens would be to get 1,000,000 votes this election. Depending on turnout, they’ll need just a shade under 7% to accomplish that. I hope they get there.

By: jwl

jwl — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:49:41 +0000

Thank god this is the penultimate poll, I assume Ekos will do last one tonight, and we can all get back to normal in a few days. Wondering what the daily polls mean, despite knowing they mean very little, is doing my head in.

Mike M

I think NDP turnout will be very close to what the polls say (20-21%), their supporters seem to be very enthusiastic, but Green total will drop down to around 6%.

By: cms

cms — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:45:45 +0000

Dot, all that pi has me hungry.

By: WDM

WDM — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:45:16 +0000

Random Question, is there still a blackout on releasing results until the polls are closed nationwide? Or will I be able to satisfy my curiosity with Atlantic Canada results as I wait for polls to close elsewhere.

By: BC Voice of Reason

BC Voice of Reason — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:35:37 +0000

When an ongoing “study” chnages it’s reporting methodology on the last sample to me it indicates that there is something fishy. After looking at the pdf at Nik’s site with the actual Oct 12 data boken out (first for that) that shows a Cons jump of 5% and a spread increase to 10% from the previous published 5% spread, Nik is covering his bases. If the Cons come in with a major he is able say that the trend line showed this. If there is a Con Minority it is exactly what he called. If the Liberals come clser he will be able to point the the large undecided.

In summary he shows Con support from 32 to 37 or 55 % and Liberal from 27 to 42 %.. all bases covered

By: from the boonies

from the boonies — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:29:59 +0000

The percentages and seat numbers might be the same, but I have every confidence that we will be moving from a dysfunctional parliament to a functional parliament.

I’ve enjoyed checking in regularly through the ethics committee hearings and the election campaign, Katy O’; mulled over yr comments, and those of various posters.

By: Geiseric the Lame

Geiseric the Lame — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:20:50 +0000

Again the undecideds are underrepresented. What I’m curious about is who the no-shows hurt.

By: Mike Moffatt

Mike Moffatt — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:18:43 +0000

Most of the polls have the Conservatives in the 34-35 range and the combined Liberal+NDP+Green vote in the 55 ballpark.

The big question is – how much of that ~55 is going to go to the Greens and NDP? If it ends up being roughly 30 (and thus 25 for the Grits), it’s going to be a long, long night for the Liberals.

Would be curious to hear from those of you who think the Conservatives are going to do well (i.e. majority) what percentage of the vote the NDP and Greens will get. My gut says 19% and 8% respectively.

Kody: Nanos has the Conservatives *higher* than Harris Decima and Strategic Counsel do. So can’t the only way he have a ‘downfall’ is if the Conservative do particularly badly on Tuesday?

Or is throwing far too much logic on the discussion?

By: BC Voice of Reason

BC Voice of Reason — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:16:17 +0000

The part about being a former card carrying Liberal is true. Many years ago friend’s dad bought me a membership in a failed attempt to fix a Liberal nomination meeting for the Manitoba Liberals.

By: BC Voice of Reason

BC Voice of Reason — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:13:29 +0000

A a former card carrying Liberal I am so relieved that Nik has come out and shown that there will be no CON Majority. I was planning to get up early and scour the “RED ZONE” for likely liberal voters who might be induced to get a morning fix (coffee of course) after casting their ballot. Now I can sleep in and have sweet dreams of Harper’s failed bid for Majority :)

By: kody

kody — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:10:04 +0000

Now releasing to the tenth of a percentage point????

Wow, that’s rather cheeky. We need to know to the tenth of a percentage what Nanos says will happen???

Like I said, his downfall this election will be hard.

This tenth of a percentage stuff will make the landing all that harder.

BTW, while cons traditionally under-poll on weekends, its far, far more extreme on holiday weekends.

Over and out,

have a great election gang,

and Kady thanks for the poll blogging, it was fun. I’ll be back after the vote is counted.

And remember, when they ask about him,

and they will ask about him,

remember the name……..

K O D Y.

By: Dot

Dot — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:08:30 +0000

Now, if you were to divide each number by Pi (3.14159265358979323846), you would get (with rounding to only eight decimal places):

Conservatives: 10.88619811 Pi(s)

Liberals: 8.498873961 Pi(s)

NDP: 6.811831564 Pi(s)

Greens: 2.610141067 Pi(s)

Bloc Quebecois: 3.023943919 Pi(s)

By: matt

matt — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:07:54 +0000

Interesting change:

Last nights polling results, per NANOs, compared to Saturday nights polling results:

Conservative: 37.1% (32.6%)
Liberal: 26.7% (26.7%)
NDP: 20.3%(22.1%)
BQ: 8.7% (9.7%)
Green: 7.1% (9.0%)

By: Wascally Wabbit

Wascally Wabbit — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:05:50 +0000

I’m still hanging my hat on the percentage of the 16% undecided as of the 12th – that are disgruntled former Cretien Liberals that sat on their hands through all this.
Let’s see how many of them actually get out to vote.