Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

UPDATED AGAIN: Shuffleuffagus v2.0 – It begins!

by kadyomalley on Wednesday, October 29, 2008 4:08pm - 64 Comments

Scroll down for the latest updates!

To nobody’s surprise (except possibly Stockwell Day), Lawrence Cannon is headed to Foreign Affairs (link courtesy of NNW). This post will be updated as further news leaks out.

UPDATE: It’s a cornocopia of (seemingly) informed speculation over at CanWest! Baird or Prentice (really? Prentice?) to Transport, which will apparently be “central” to the government’s efforts to “avoid a recession” with billions of dollars for infrastructure. Everyone loves bridges and tunnels! And hockey arenas! And wharfs! Oh, and Clement might end up with International Trade, which would be — different; does anyone else have trouble imagining him as anything other than Health Minister? It’s like, his entire political identity at this point.

Jason Kenney may get Citizenship and Immigration – which I totally called earlier this week, by the way, only in my scenario, Peter Kent took over the Canadian Identity portfoliette – and James Moore could be bumped up to Canadian Heritage or Environment. The former would let him keep the Vancouver Olympics too, since Heritage is now not so much about arts and all about sports. (And human rights museums, but y’all have heard that rant more than enough times already, so I’ll spare you the rest.) (Seriously, though – Winnipeg? WINNIPEG? Oh well, at least we’re not going to buy them a football arena too, right? Right? Hello?)

Oh, and Josee Verner gets the Rona Ambrose Memorial Naughty Chair for failing to sell PMO’s culture war in Quebec. I wonder if she’ll get to go to next month’s first ministers’ meeting? Probably not – I’m pretty sure Rona wasn’t invited to the last one.

STILL MORE UPDATEY GOODNESS: L. Ian MacDonald has Baird taking over Transport, which is being spun as a plum assignment because of all that lovely cash to spread around deserving ridings, but sounds more like an attempt to spin it as Not A Demotion for whoever lands there – well, if it’s someone currently on the A-List like Baird or Prentice, anyway. Then there’s the idea of Peter Van Loan taking over Environment. Pivvle the Pit Bull as Mr. Corner Turning Cap and Trader? Is the PM worried that there may be one or two environmental groups out there that his government hasn’t yet antagonized?

Moving on, Jay Hill as House Leader actually does make some sense, although I still think they’d be better off with Diane Ablonczy, who – as per L. Ian – will get Health. He also has Lynn Yelich headed to Revenue – and Gordon O’Connor replacing Hill as Whip, which seems like an odd pairing – and boldly predicts that Gerry Ritz will be booted from Agriculture, with one of ITQ’s very favourite Conservative MPs, Ted Menzies, as a contender to replace him. (Go Ted!)

BECAUSE WE’RE ALREADY CHATTERING ABOUT IT IN THE COMMENTS UPDATE: Stephen Taylor, on the other hand, is getting a markedly different story on who is going where from his source(s), including the tantalizing rumour that a Quebec Liberal may Emerson up and cross the floor for a cabinet job. Oooooeeeeoooo. (ITQ suspects this may be mischievous disinfo from the Sun Tzu division of the Conservative Resource Group; if that’s the case, we can only say – well played, sirs!)

THANK GOODNESS FOR CANADIAN PRESS UPDATE: The overhaul will be “sweeping”, Alex Panetta assures us. Well, good. The last one was a bit of a snoozer, although admittedly, it was primarily to deal with that Bernier-shaped hole in the wall at Fort Pearson. Many of the same names show up in the CP piece – most of the big kids staying where they are – Prentice, Flaherty, MacKay, Day – Kenney to Citizenship (CALLED IT! FEELING SMUG! YES, I HAVE WITNESSES! PLEASE IGNORE THIS IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE WRONG!), Baird to Transport, Jay Hill as House Leader (oddly, no mention of Pivvle), Verner to the Room of No Longer Required-ment, Ambrose to HRDC, Clement to Trade, Duncan or Gerald Keddy to Fisheries, Shea to ACOA (sorry, Peter – no more pork gravy for you), Leona Aglukkaq to a newly created northern development secretary of stateship, and her fellow newbies Bob Dechert and Peter Kent to various unspecified junior mint jobs.

Tags: dear quebec: does this help?, La Presse, lawrence cannon, leaky goodness, shuffleuffagus v.2

More by kadyomalley

http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

Kady

I reckon alls fair in love and war. What I find most intriguing is if Bernier makes it back to Cabinet. There are good arguments for both pro/con.
http://caiti-online.blogspot.com/ Transcanada

Does it really matter who the new cab members are? You got the grand-strategist-sweater-guy pulling the strings from above anyway.

But I guess putting a new line of Conservative-puppet-ministers is just good marketing.
Darrell

Don’t know him personally, but I could see Massimo Pacetti being tempted by an economic portfolio (don’t know if Harper has them to give out).

Frank Scarpallegia has demonstrated some right wing leanings, so he’s another one who could jump. Also has an economic background.

My money, though, is on Garneau. Would be Emerson all over again – he’s known, he’s got specific expertise (and executive experience) in an area that Harper can argue does not exist in his own caucus, and he’d solve the Montreal area problem.

It’d be a huge blow to the Liberals, and Iggy in particular.
http://www.macleans.ca Kady O’Malley

Darrell – The big difference between Garneau and Emerson is that Garneau doesn’t have previous ministerial, or even Commons experience – if he gets to jump the queue as a rookie MP, it might cause some serious grumbling amongst Quebec backbenchers like Steve Blaney or Sylvie Boucher.
dB

I lived in Ontario between 1995 and 2003, so yes, I can imagine many jobs other than health minister for Tony Clement. Many of them are unpleasant jobs.
Two Cents

Emerson, who was pretty much a non-partisan schooled in BC where Liberals and Conservatives have always mixed together in the Social Credit Party or the BC Liberal Party. On the other hand, Garneau actually gives the impression he thinks of himself as a Liberal. I think it would be very difficult for Garneau to jump parties. Scarpeleggia, who I know well, was an original Dion supporter. It’s highly unlikely he’d move. I’d be verysuprised if this Quebec Liberal rumour is true.

John Duncan as Fisheries Minister makes a lot of sense. The PM needs to add at least one BC minister to replace Emerson and to reflect teh extra seats in BC. John Weston or Alice Wong also may get a junior portfolio for this reason.
Jack Mitchell

If Garneau, Lord save us, were actually to attempt the Great Commons Spacewalk literally within days of being elected for the first time, he would instantly be marked as one of the most cynical and ungrateful politicians since the dawn of space travel. The Liberal Party has bent over backwards, Canadarm-style, for that fellow.

Still, it’s probably just a stupid rumour, eh?
Jarrid

Scarpaleggia was one of only two Quebec MP’s to back Dion in the Leadership race. I’m not sure if that makes him more likely or less likely to jump ship.
madeyoulook

ITQ: Which is why it would most likely be someone nearing the end of his or her political career, and no plans to run again. That, or a frightening level of naivete — so either a rookie, or a veteran.

End of career, not running again, frightening level of naivete. Holy Green Shift Batman, Harper’s bagged Dion!!!
http://www.macleans.ca Kady O’Malley

MYL – “Stephane Dion: Not A Leader – Which, As It Turns Out, Makes Him The Perfect Cabinet Minister!”*

*Line stolen shamelessly from the person with whom I was joking about that very same possibility earlier today.
madeyoulook

Actually Kady, as designated op-ed writer under le p’tit gars he was a pretty good cabinet minister. Maybe Harper sees some constitutional reopening rumblings and remembered that poaching a Liberal early in the last mandate netted him a decent minister, so…
tc

chuckercanuck makes a pretty strong case for Francis Scarpalleggia.. its riding too apparently.
tc

*his* riding
AMM

Kady,

Ssssshhhh! Just because no one listened to your original inane rant about the “audacity” of the Human Rights Museum being built in Winnipeg, doesn’t mean we will listen when you continue to beat your point into the ground. The Museum is being built in Winnipeg, it will be an attraction that garners attention the world over (regardless of what some random polls and surveys say), and Canada will be better off for it being built. When it’s ready, come to Winnipeg and enjoy the world class attraction the museum will be. I’ll even buy you your first round of drinks!
http://www.macleans.ca Kady O’Malley

I just can’t help myself. I’m sorry. For some reason, it just sends me into the stratosphere, and suddenly, I turn into one of those people who calls into talk radio shows. The weird thing is that I love museums! And human rights! I’ve never been to Winnipeg, but I’m sure I’d love it too. It’s just the combination that brings on the rage blackout.
Riley Hennessey

If Jay Hill is House Leader, where does Peter Van Loan go?? After showing how absolutely steadfast partisan he is, could he really be responsible for an actual ministry?
http://mikewatkins.ca/ Michael Watkins

Jon obviously knows nothing about Vancouver-Kingsway. Emerson would not have won had he returned, but him showing up would have galvanized an anti-Conservative movement in Vancouver that would infect other city ridings. Standing aside was always his only choice.

As for “almost” winning, if your definition of close is 3,500 votes then it was close. What you saw is “peak” votes for the Conservatives in this riding. Some Liberals drifted to the Conservatives; only a few would have drifted to the NDP.

Bottom line: the Conservatives and Liberals are now splitting some of the same votes in the riding and should they continue to do so, the NDP will keep on winning.

Race in Vancouver-Kingsway: Not close at all.

Anti-Emerson sentiment never left the riding, a reality the Liberal candidate is probably lamenting. Floor-crossers did not do well in this last go around. Of the memorable: Emerson: Gone. Wilson: Gone. Khan: Gone. Turner: Gone.

Any newly elected or re-elected member considering “pulling an Emerson” had better think hard about it. Is perhaps a couple of years in a minority parliament followed by the end of one’s political career worth it?
AMM

Kady, i promise you that if you spend anytime in Winnipeg you will love the city and most importantly its people. Ask some of your hill-ite friends if they know anyone from Winnipeg. They will speak fawningly about them. Gooooo Museeeeeeum!
Brian

Kady:

I’m interested to hear why you oppose the Human Rights Museum in Winnipeg? If you love museums and human rights, then your opposition must be based on its Winnipeg location (outside the NCR) and that the Aspers are behind it (despite having put up $20 million).
Marty

will Alice Wong be making it into cabinet? or will they wait to put Wai Young, if she wins the appeal of the recount of the review of the spoiled ballots, randomly sampled?

Better yet, put Oda, Wong and Young in cabinet: some major pc points for the (xP)C’s.

still disappointed Mayencourt didn’t pull it off, and end up sitting next to d-u-f-n Lukiwoski from Sask!
Brian

Not to mention the $40 million put up by the provincial government, $20 million by the city government and another $20 million put up by local donors including.

Just curious…
Darrell

Kady -

True that Garneau has no Ministerial experience, but he does have experience with the CSA, at a level equivalent of a Deputy Minister.

I think his prospects of crossing the floor into Industry are doubtful, though. It would only make sense if CSA were somehow being split from Industry.

There have been rumours about changes to the Industry portfolio (like putting Trade in the portfolio), so it’s not inconceivable that he could be put in a secretary of state type role managing the agency.

The other thing working against this theory, though, is that Garneau is very unlikely to win his riding as a Conservative.

It could always be a Senator, too.
L

I don’t know how to break it to you, dear Kady, but the title of your post should be UPDATED AGAIN: Shuffleupagus. It’s a “g”, not an “ff”. Really.

http://www.sesamestreet.org/onair/characters/snuffy

It’s a great party trick to try to understand why some say Snuffleu*ff*agus and others say Snuffleu*p*agus.

Sad, I know. This is what Cabinet speculation does to me.
Jack Mitchell

L, your post is more jarring than the thought of Jason Kenney as Minister of Finance.

Snuffleupagus he may be, but I swear to God he calls himself Snuffleuffagus in his debut (1:14 mark).

Still, I am not convinced that Snuffleupagus even exists.
http://haltonwatch.blogspot.com Jennifer Smith

Baird? Puhleese! Everyone in Halton knows that Lisa Raitt was tapped from Day One to be Transport Minister.

She brought Harper the head of Garth Turner on a platter, she was (and still is, technically) head of the Toronto Port Authority, and ever since she was floated into the riding on a puffy pink cloud she’s been pitching the pork value of having our very own highly-placed Conservative MP.

Hell, we might even get the western branch of the Train to Nowhere!

Besides, she’s got that whole Ann Coulter thing going for her.