Amy – Estonia is an ethnocracy. One third of population is effectively disenfranchised and deprived of the right to use their own language in public affairs. Mind you that Russian language did not just appear there yesterday, but was the language of state for almost 300 years (since 1721, with an interruption between world wars). Despite of the rubbish Edward Lucas, a notorious raving Russophobe wrote in his pamphlet, “Baltic States” are not a part of the West, but a troubled, ethnocratic statelets. Nobody’s security depends on them.

Unlike US that is fermenting troubles in the former Soviet Union, arming outright fascists (as in Georgia) and financing ethnocracies, Russia is operating within its historic and cultural sphere of influence. It does so with consent and approval of both its own population and most of people in the territories where it is acting thus meeting the ultimate democratic criteria (not that it matters in any way).

As per Edward Lucas, Russian manipulation might look like this:

“The key to the West’s future security is the security of the Baltic states. Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians have thrown in their lot with us and we must not let them down. Consider this scenario. Imagine that Estonian extremists start intimidating local Russians (who amount to around a third of the Estonian population). Russia can easily stoke this covertly, while demanding publicly that Estonia crack down. Then imagine that Russian activists (again, backed, discreetly, by Moscow) set up “self-defence units” which start patrols, and set up checkpoints. When the Estonian authorities try to stop this, the Kremlin complains; Russian military “volunteers” start mustering across the border, proclaiming their intention to defend compatriots from “fascism”. The Russian media report this with wild enthusiasm; the Russian authorities say they cannot indefinitely restrain the spontaneous patriotic sentiments of their citizens.”

http://edwardlucas.blogspot.com/2008/11/daily-telegraph-rant-today.html

We have to be very careful not to underestimate the Kremlin’s ability to quickly deplete that impressive $500 billion of currency reserves. The authoritarian system they have build is very expensive to maintain, and in the absence of functioning rule of law, the business sector relies on personal relationships with the powers to settle all kinds of disputes. The economic crisis is dramatically amplifying the number of disputes, and the government is going to have a very tough time paying everybody off.

The revolution never starts at the bottom, but always with a split among the elite.