Meeting the new neighbour

Trying to influence Congress represents the grunt work of Canada-U.S. relations. At the opposite extreme are summit meetings of presidents and prime ministers, sometimes as glitzy as Brian Mulroney and Ronald Reagan together in tuxes, sometimes as laid back as Jean Chrétien and Bill Clinton in golf attire. Failing to deliver that sort of symbolism can hurt a PM’s claim to cachet with a president. When George W. Bush was elected, he broke with the tradition, stretching back to Franklin Roosevelt, of making Canada his first visit abroad—sparking heated debate about Canada’s lost clout in Washington. Harper’s top officials are emphasizing that he is focused on substance, not on the symbolism of when or where he first meets Obama. That could well be a prudent exercise in lowering expectations.

Yet there can be no doubt that Canadians will be watching for any sign of a natural rapport—or failure to hit it off—between Harper and Obama. Worried Tories grasp at potential shared perspectives, frequently pointing out, for instance, that the two leaders are close in age. (Harper is 49, while Obama is 47.) But the more obvious questions swirl around their ideological differences. Harper’s roots are hard-core conservative; Obama was among the most liberal U.S. senators. Still, the president-elect has lately tacked to the centre, and Harper recently asked his party, at its policy convention in Winnipeg, to be pragmatic, “not unrealistic or ideological.”

Assuming they don’t let political convictions get in the way, Harper and Obama will have plenty to talk about. Beyond the pressing matter of the auto sector’s future, and Harper’s ambitions for partnership on climate change, the relationship could hinge on a handful of issues. Late last year, a frustrated Harper told Maclean’s the Bush administration wasn’t very open to Canada’s pleas for rethinking post-9/11 security regulations that have “thickened” the Canada-U.S. border, and he held out hope the next president would be more open to streamlining rules that hamper trade and travel.

As for what Obama might want from Canada, his promise to shift U.S. military efforts from Iraq to Afghanistan suggests one obvious possibility. He’ll want more support from U.S. allies. But what would happen if Obama asked Harper to rethink his election promise to pull Canadian troops out of Afghanistan in 2011? Cannon admitted it’s possible that request will come from the new administration, but he said the withdrawal date is not up for negotiation. “The new U.S. position will not change our position. We’ve made that clear,” he said. “But let’s also make it clear that we’re in there until 2011. There’s not going to be any slack. Our commitment is a whole, total, full-court press.”

The auto sector and Afghanistan, border irritants and cross-border emissions trading—the agenda is packed. The question is whether those early political contacts will mature into real working relationships, whether the diplomatic groundwork pays off in workaday access. Although they are downplaying expectations for Harper’s visible relationship with Obama, the Prime Minister’s aides are undoubtedly hoping for a convincing show of that valuable intangible: personal rapport. Failing that, Conservatives need to work hard to deliver the next best thing in Canada-U.S. relations: political results.

With Luiza Ch. Savage and Nicholas Köhler