Categories: Paul Wells

The actors are ready, the Kabuki is about to begin

Ignatieff will play the front-runner. He reassures. He denies he is the front-runner.

by Paul Wells on Monday, November 24, 2008 5:00pm - 16 Comments

Dominic LeBlanc is the spoiler. He can win only on a complicated bank shot. He needs the front-runner to lose so spectacularly he takes the challenger with him. The good news is that it actually worked last time, for Stéphane Dion. The bad news has the good news outnumbered. First, after it worked for Dion, everything else stopped working. Second, Dion had candidates behind him who could rally to him. LeBlanc has nobody to rally to him except himself. Because he really needs Ignatieff and Rae to screw up big time, he will be saddened to discover that everything they do is evidence of their folly. He will often be heard clucking mournfully.

There is a fourth player, stationed just offstage. The three contestants mention him often and cast worried glances in his direction. He is Stephen Harper. Does he have a favourite? Each new clue contradicts the last. Perhaps a centre-right figure like Ignatieff could mow the electoral lawn under the Harper Conservatives. Maybe an old New Democrat like Rae could end vote-splitting on the left. Maybe young LeBlanc could make Harper look like yesterday’s man. Or perhaps the incumbent could crush them all.

Like any menace, Harper becomes more terrible in his opponents’ imagination with every passing month. Once they called him their best guarantee of success. Now he has become the first national Conservative leader since Sir John A. Macdonald to defeat two different Liberal opponents. Can nobody stop him?

These are the characters and the shape of the stage. The play will last until delegates are selected in March for the May convention. Ignatieff must be gentle and all-embracing so he can grow toward a majority of delegates. LeBlanc must be gentle and all-embracing in case Ignatieff’s shtick doesn’t work. Rae needs to goad Ignatieff. He will be hounded at every turn by the front-runner’s supporters, who love when their man talks and are badly upset when anyone talks back.

Probably Ignatieff will win. Probably this is the last time the Liberals will surrender to the increasingly dubious charms of a delegated convention. Will Harper crush a third Liberal? I’m sure I couldn’t begin to guess.

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  • Anon

    So. you’re saying that both Rae and LeBlanc will hang on until after Christmas?

  • Paul Wells

    No, I’m going to wait until you make a prediction, Anon, and then bet against it, because you’ve been wrong 90 times already. Want me to go through the list again?

  • Toby

    NO ONE loves a good narrative like the Liberals.

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  • john g

    Well you only stated one fact in the whole damn article so it wasn’t hard to track down which one you got wrong. :)

    Diefenbaker beat 2 Liberal leaders; Louis St Laurent in 1957 & Lester Pearson in 1958

  • Paul Wells

    john g is right!

    Sigh.

  • John

    If only Charles Bird were to run; he would surely crush them all.

  • stephen

    The problem with fighting yesterday’s battle is that was yesterday…..it appears to me the Liberal’s are caught in a time warp, not much different than the when they were caught in a time warp when they elected Turner and when they elected Martin.

    Their problem is I dont know if they have much of a choice. The only benefit is that whoever wins, Rae or Ignatieff are of such an age that this is the last battle for the leadership for either of them. The Liberals get to change generations after either losing the next election or two elections from now (assuming they win the next one).

    In the interests of seeing a functioning political system in this country one hopes they elect a leader who knows how to build policy, brand and fundraising…none of which are short term things by the way……

    Watching with interest from the sidelines.

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  • Ted

    Love the post. Accurately highlights the fears and nervousness of Ignatieff and the arrogance and emptiness of Rae.

  • http://whatdoiknowgrit.blogspot.com James Curran

    Emptiness?

    I’m no empty vessel Ted.

  • Magruder

    Wells, who is sometimes glib and often cryptic, really nailed this one. rotflmmfaho!

  • jm

    Actually, I don’t think LeBlanc’s “bank shot” is that Ignatieff loses so spectacularly that he takes Rae with him. The only way LeBlanc can possibly win is if he’s not eliminated on the first ballot. And that only happens if he gets more delegates than either Rae or Ignatieff… It seems more likely at this point that LeBlanc can inch ahead of Rae. Then, on the second ballot, he gathers up the Challenger’s indignant supporters to (once again) deny the front-runner of the prize.

    Does this count as two errors in the piece? Or am I missing something…

  • Wascally Wabbit

    Mr. Wells is focusing on the irrelevant – which is beginning to form a pattern.
    What really is the issue is not the personalities and how they play out in some Japanese drama (nice imagery Paul) but whether the party (THIS version of the party) can do anything to inspire jaded supporters and more importantly voters!
    Barack Obama wins on his personality and an inspiring vision…but does he sit back and wait for a coronation? Nope – he gathers around him a most impressive team because he knows leadership is all about inspiring others to follow and want to participate.
    This lot thus far – are competing more for how many “place-holders” in the caucus they can attract – and frankly those place-holders – plus the current slate of riding executives (mostly planted by Martin / Earnscliffe) do not look at all inspirational (and this is a Liberal writing).
    All I am looking for right now is the lesser of the two evils (much as the voters have in the last three elections) and I will judge that by how few former Earnscliffe principals each candidate has surrounded himself with!

  • Rudy

    @jm

    For LeBlanc to win, and I think our author is right, people have to vote against “their choices” which is exactly what happened when they chose Dion. Grassroot Liberal activists said to themselves, ‘Neither Rae nor Ignatieff has been a Liberal as long as I have. The same party bigwigs that tried to herd us into “Chretien” or “Martin” camps for the past decade are trying to cram these two down our throats. They’re telling us the only “responsible” choice is to pick between some guy who backs W Bush and hates his own country and a guy who spent most of his life in another party and sucked at it. Screw it. I’m going with my heart.’ And they picked either Kennedy, Hall-Findlay or Dion. All of whom emraced a strategy of coming up the middle. One of whom succeeded.

    Having gone with their hearts once they won’t likely do it again – which makes LeBlanc’s candidacy a long shot. Not to mention you can’t “come up the middle” when there’s only three slots. You’re either first, second or kingmaker.

    LeBlanc denies he wants to be kingmaker. In which case, you’re right, he has to pass either Ignatieff or Rae. Of the two I’d say Rae is the one to pick. But kicking the snot out of Rae makes it unlikely that you’ll win his delegates at convention. And not kicking the snot out of him makes passing him unlikely.

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