Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

The short version

by Paul Wells on Thursday, November 27, 2008 9:32pm - 85 Comments

Harper will back down.

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  • KRB

    Ok, isn’t the convention that the GG would turn to the Leader of the Opposition and ask him/her if they could form a government? That is the first person the GG is obliged to turn to.

    If that person refuses the option, then we’re into grey area. If the Leader of the Opposition doesn’t feel they can command the confidence of the House, it’s hardly logical for the GG, following parliamentary convention, to believe that anyone else would be able to. Thus would follow an election.

    Once Harper resigns, and Dion refuses, and the GG orders an election, it’s not as though the opposition can then say “oh nevermind”. An election will happen.

  • Don Smith

    Isn’t there a difference between a Prime Minister going to the GG and asking Parliament to be dissolved, and the Government being defeated on a confidence measure?

    I thought that if the PM asks, the GG could ask if anyone else could form a government, but if the Gov loses a confidence vote, its an automatic election.

    No?

  • Wildrose

    Harper has made a massive tactical blunder.

    In the short term Harper will back down, but the seed has been planted regarding the funding issue in the minds of the opposition. For them it’s a death sentence.

    They will bide their time and take down the government at some point. By then Chrysler will be bankrupt ( G.M. possibly too) , life in Ontario will be miserable.

    Desperate times calls for desperate measures. The 3 centre left parties in English Canada unite under a coalition ” We have to save the country from financial oblivion banner” Strange. Perhaps, but I never thought I’d see the day where Republicans would nationalize banks either.

    This would be a disaster for the Blue. In the last election, about 45-50 conservative seats were won on the centre- left vote split, take this out of the equation ( and oddly maintain the Bloc hold on Quebec) and we’re talking a centre-left , blame Alberta for our woes, majority government.

    Harper, may have well been too cute in all of his machinations.

  • Van Centre

    “about 45-50 conservative seats were won on the centre- left vote split,”

    Why do people continue to think that blue grits would prefer to support a coalition with Jack Layton to supporting the Conservatives? People in the 905 are allergic to the NDP. Their 2nd vote preference is Conservative. If the grits form an alliance with the NDP, they can write off the 905 and other surburban ridings across the country.

  • KRB

    I’m sure there are examples out there in countries where coalition gov’t is the norm, but I still would say it’s a rare occurence that the senior party in a governing coalition would not even have over a quarter of the seats in the legislature, nevermind half!!! 77/308 is a dead-on 25%.

    Explicitly needing the Bloc’s support should be a five-alarm danger sign to any federalist politician. They are a restless party, and you can be assured that they will only go along for the ride for so long before exacting big concessions for their continued support … and the lib/ndp gov’t in this case will be so deathly afraid to face the electorate after such a brazen grab for power, that they would likely give in to them (remember the Martin gov’t in its death throes? This would be worse).

    Even the combined Lib/NDP numbers would be the smallest government in our history (37%).

    No comparison to the Peterson/Rae pact in Ontario in 1985 holds. There, Peterson had actually won the popular vote, and only 4 seats less than the Frank Miller’s PC’s. The Libs/NDP there garnered 61.7% of the vote, and won 58% of the seats. The Libs/NDP of today garnered only 44% in the last vote (quick question: has there ever been another coalition government formed, in any other Western democracy, ever, that didn’t together garner a majority of the popular vote in the previous election?), and only 37% of the seats!!!

    Any such Lib/NDP coalition gov’t, if it happens, will shatter all precedents!! Let’s remember, that when Byng caused a constitutional crisis in 1926 by calling on the Conservatives to form a gov’t after MacKenzie-King resigned, he was calling on a party that had actually won 17 more seats and 6% more support (46% in total) in the previous election!!!

  • Wildrose

    “People in the 905 are allergic to the NDP. ”

    Perhaps. This is why it probably would have to be an Iggy led Liberal-NDP / Green coalition with emphasis on his ” centerist” ideology.

    I know many people in the 905. if every second business is closing around them, I really doubt they’d cast their lot in with the governing right wing party who rightly/wrongly will be blamed for the economic malaise.

  • shawn

    I love this country….why is my tax dollars going to a party who stated goal is to “separate from Canada”…political parties should rely on donations from Canadians which means having grass root support and having a ground game….sound familiar yes BARACK OBAMA used that same model……if conservatives, liberals, ndp or greens want my support i will listen to their ideas and whichever agrees with my personal beliefs i will given they my vote and if they want a donation i will consider it….i don’t want tax payer money involved….that’s the democratic way i CHOOSE whether to donate or not….

  • KRB

    Canada. Home of the first coalition minority government in modern Western political history.

    Coalition minority … isn’t that an oxymoron? Isn’t the whole purpose of coalition government to gain majority support? Surely the gallery will come up with an appropriate analogy.

  • Sunny12

    apparently they kind of already backed down by taking it out of the ways and means motion on Monday. Now I know that taking away the right to strike (for public servants) is to be in a piece of legislation but I’m still surprised that the parties have said little on that issue. They look incredibly petty to be focussed on the subsidy issue.

  • DCT

    I was napping..is Harper gone now? Is Dion PM?

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