Beyond The Commons

Beyond The Commons

Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Fantasy government

by Aaron Wherry on Monday, December 1, 2008 2:25am - 37 Comments

Latest reports put a coalition cabinet at 24 members—18 Liberal, 6 NDP.

Consider this a rough draft (uninformed by any inside information and based only on personal speculation).

For the sake of argument, let’s set aside the three Liberal leadership contenders. For one, they might be too fraught with political implications to be included. For another, they might be too busy promoting their leadership campaigns to be decent cabinet ministers anyway. For the record, if they weren’t embroiled in a leadership race, they’d all be in cabinet.

Prime Minister Stephane Dion
Deputy Prime Minister Jack Layton
House Leader Ralph Goodale
Finance John McCallum
Environment Thomas Mulcair
Defence Scott Brison
Foreign Affairs Irwin Cotler
Immigration Olivia Chow
Indian Affairs Todd Russell
Heritage Charlie Angus
Industry Joe Comartin
Agriculture Wayne Easter
Fisheries Siobhan Coady
Public Works Gerard Kennedy
Health Libby Davies
Justice Anthony Rota
Public Safety Ujjal Dosanjh
Transport Mark Holland
Natural Resources David McGuinty
Revenue Martha Hall Findlay
Trade Mark Eyking
Human Resources Ken Dryden
Intergovernmental Affairs Judy Sgro
Labour Carolyn Bennett 

For the sake of comparison, here’s how the Conservatives line-up along roughly the same positions.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper
House Leader Jay Hill
Finance Jim Flaherty
Environment Jim Prentice
Defence Peter MacKay
Foreign Affairs Lawrence Cannon
Immigration Jason Kenney
Indian Affairs Chuck Strahl
Heritage James Moore
Industry Tony Clement
Agriculture Gerry Ritz
Fisheries Gail Shea
Public Works Christian Paradis
Health Leona Aglukkaq
Justice Rob Nicholson
Public Safety Peter Van Loan
Transport John Baird
Natural Resources Lisa Raitt
Revenue Jean-Pierre Blackburn
Trade Stockwell Day
Human Resources Diane Finley
Intergovernmental Affairs Josee Verner
Labour Rona Ambrose

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  • tobywhite

    Please, don’t pretend that ‘farmers’ are against the Wheat Board. It is insulting to farmers and insulting to Canadians’ intelligence.

    Just keep yelling “socialists!” It worked well for the McCain team.

  • Terry86

    ” I guess this new paradise must surely exclude Vancouver (my home), Victoria, Nanaimo, western Kootenays, Bulkey Valley, downtown Edmonton, parts of Regina and Saskatoon, and Winnipeg, right? Because a majority of ‘westerners’ in these places voted for the NDP or the Liberals – and have the seats to prove it.”

    Talk about hyperbole. In Edmonton there was one NDP eleceted compared to at least 5 conservatives.

    I think Premier Ed might be well-considered to call a referendum on separation if the coalition of losers manages to come to power.

  • Robert

    Terry 86:

    How does anything I said constitute hyberbole, pray tell?

    Note that I said ‘downtown Edmonton’ – by this I mean something approximating the central core of the city, which includes the ridings of Edmonton Centre, Edmonton East and Edmonton-Strathcona.

    In these three ridings, the NDP won one seat (E-S) and the Conservatives the other two. Overall, the Liberals and the NDP combined for 61,793 votes in these three ridings and the Conservatives 63,408. If you factor the Greens (9,194) into the non-Conservative equation, the total is 70,987 who didn’t vote for the Conservative Party in central Edmonton.

    Once again, you like many of your angry Conservative bretheren, quickly retreat to your safe zone when confronted with counterfactual evidence. Premier Ed should call a referendum on separation? Oh, so now you folks are running with the ‘western alienation’ is really all about ‘Alberta Conservative anger’ card again?

    Thanks, that helps us ‘other’ westerners to achieve the clarification we are seeking.

  • Terry

    My father lives under the rules of the Wheat board. My father’s neighbours live under the Wheat Board. You know people who actually farm for a living, instead of having it as a side job.

    So don’t you insult my intelligence. The polling done by left wing governments (such as the much trumpeted Manitoba plebiscite) and the CWB itself does little to convince me that general sentiment in in the farms around my home town is somehow aberrant. There is a reason why my home electoral district used to be called “red square” and isn’t anymore.

    The simple fact of the matter is that even if the majority of farmers supported the wheat board, there simply is no justification for a pseudo-governmental organization to force you to sell your property to them. All that does is piss us off, and ensure that you will never get our votes.

    I hate you left of center supporters for that attitude that you don’t have to respect our basic property rights because we’re dumb farmers who don’t know our best interests. It makes me shake with anger.

  • Robert

    Terry:

    Unfortunately, the last two paragraphs of your post highlight the problem.

    First, you note the possibility that farmers in support of the Wheat Board might actually represent a majority (I appreciate you are posing this as a hypothetical and not a fact).

    Then, you proceed to make the claim that what you, personally, are really angry about is that “there simply is no justification for a pseudo-governmental organization to force you to sell your property to them.” Fair enough if that’s your own argument.

    But then you proceed to pull out of your hat a statement laced with invective claiming that supporters of the Wheat Board simply ‘don’t respect property rights,’ think ‘farmers’ are ‘dumb’ and that said farmers don’t know their own interests.

    See the problem?

    The issue is that some people (admittedly not you) think that a majority of farmers in western Canada DO support single-desk selling. And, if a majority do, that it is legitimate to continue the practice.

    Said argument carries with it no assumptions about the intelligence of farmers or questioning of their own competency to make decisions.

  • Terry

    Robert> There is no other way to explain the fact why farmers simply can’t convince the left wing supporters of urban areas about why the Wheat Board is useless and unjust.

    They don’t know anything about what influences commodity prices, what the opportunities are for marketing, what the opportunities are for value added local industry, or even what services the wheat board provides.

    Yet they presume to tell my father, despite running his own farm for over 40 years that he just doesn’t know enough to realize that the wheat board monopoly is good for farmers.

    So if it isn’t class based condescension, what is it?

  • Shenping

    I thought I’d weigh in on the wheat board & farm politics since I’ve done about three thousand or so farm tax returns & spent three years talking to farmers about their finances. I’ve never been on a farm myself other than school trips & to visit relatives, so you have to consider that this is through my filter.

    I partly agree with Terry. Not with his economic arguments, but with the perception of paternalistic condensation & contempt that central Canada treats them with. I come from & currently live in Regina, but I’ve lived in Ottawa & spent time in Toronto & Montreal. I’ve had much better experiences in northern Ontario (northern being anything 100km north of Toronto, I suppose), but, for example, when I was younger and had to show ID to buy a beer, I’d be shown the door about one time in five when I showed a Saskatchewan drivers license. Yes, my father comes from Moose Jaw. It’s a Cree name. Making fun of it is racist. Regina starts with an R. Not a V. Deal with it. The majority of Ontarians & Quebecors aren’t like this, but there’s enough of them to make our experiences in central Canada extremely unpleasant. Yes, we do have television (cable, even). Yes, we have home heating. Yes, there are roads. More than in the east. It’s probably the same when people from Toronto come east. The east/west divide cuts both ways. It’s not just farmers, Terry — I’m from a city, I speak three languages & have studied abroad on a full scholarship. They treat me the same as they do your father. Most people in the east are pretty much hard-working decent family people, and the CPC is as hostile to them as the Liberals have been to us. Conservatives hate employees. And they massively outvote you. Ontario has almost double the population of the prairies.

    In my experience, the Wheat Board consistently pays about ten percent more for number 1 & 2 high-protein red spring wheat than the spot price in the states, if you count the initial payment & the post-sale top-up. Number three & lower & anything under about 12.5% protein gets you less than the cost of producing, no matter who pays you for it.

    High-quality feed barley generally gets a lower price at the Board than elsewhere, but “feed grade” isn’t a very exact term, and it’s hard to quantify.

    It’s hard to find comparisons for durums (semolinas for non-Western-Canadians), since the Canadian prairies & the Board are such a huge percentage of the world market, but high-grade high-protein durums generally go at a 30% premium over other types of high-grade wheat. (Durums & other semolinas are high-gluten wheats used in pasta-making.)

    The flip side of this is that at point-of-delivery, the Board pays an initial price which is always lower than the spot price in the states. Down the road when the wheat is sold, you get a final payment based on the sale price. Since the board tends to hold its stock until prices are favourable, you don’t know when the second payment is coming or how much it is. You can’t use it as collateral for a loan.

    Also a note that the Wheat Board only covers wheat & barley, which are two of the less profitable crops no matter which marketing system you have in place. If you want to grow other grains, oilseeds & whatever other crops, you can sell them however you like. There are some people who say that if you don’t like the Board, grow one of the 90-plus-% of crops they don’t sell. However, I’m sure Terry will point out that this isn’t feasible for most farmers, because wheat/durum is the only crop which consistently has a harvest on the prairies. If you grow chick peas, you will make more money on average, but have a lot more crop failures. The threshold where a farm is big enough to manage this type of cash flow is over a quarter of a million dollars of annual sales & close to 20 quarters. Most farms aren’t at this level. Wheat makes less money, but has a bankable cash flow.

    In support of us city-based leftists, though, when you drive into town to go to the big-box retailers and see all those big houses & SUV’s, that’s not me. That’s about 20% at most of urbanites. Probably less. And they are the ones who vote with you. I live in an inner-city basement suite. With a university education I can’t afford the $1,000 rent I need for an apartment & the $800/month for student loans. The “leftist” policies are necessary for my survival.

    But while I may disagree strongly with Terry, I fully respect that he’s earned his right to have them. Some background:

    Support for Conservatives among farmers is probably more due to really long memories than as a result of policy. Back in the 80′s, the dying Devine Sask PC’s announced a subsidy to farmers amounting to something like $50,000 per farm. The Romanow NDP cancelled the payments after a lot of farmers borrowed money using them as collateral. Remember that the prairies were at the end of an eight-year drought, and a lot of farmers hadn’t had much of a harvest for a few years and were very short of cash. At the same time the NDP sharply reduced provincial corporate tax rates. Urban one, rural zero.

    Towards the end of his tenure, Chretien cancelled the Crow subsidy. In order to get support (& funding) for the CPR from business in the Toronto area, Sir John A established the Crow subsidy to reduce the cost of shipping grain & some other commodities east. While this essentially killed the development of any kind of value-added industry in the prairies (which was what it was intended to do), it was very profitable for farmers. After the Crow was abolished, the shipping costs reduced what farmers got per ton by up to a third on even high-grade wheat, and made it extremely difficult to sell low- to medium-grade wheat. Urban two, rural zero.

    So farmers mostly support the Conservatives because the (provincial) NDP & Liberals have royally screwed them in living memory. There’s also a perception among farmers that the federal government serves the interest of Ontario & Quebec at the expense of the west, so when a Conservative candidate comes along & promises to represent them, the message gets heard. My own opinion is that it is a lie, but the other parties have already proved their promises to farmers to be lies. All political parties lie to farmers.

    As for the National Energy Policy, I think enough has been said about the NEP & Alberta. It was probably a good idea, but it was badly implemented. It doesn’t get talked about as much, but at the beginning of the NEP, Saskatchewan was the only province other than Alberta to be a net contributor to the federal coffers. A lot of people (myself included) believe that the NEP was one of the major reasons Saskatchewan became a have-not province for the next thirty years. (The Devine Tories are probably a much bigger reason, & are why most Sask urbanites hate conservatives.)

    As a final note, the Liberals have gerrymandered the urban vote in Saskatchewan for decades to prevent NDP candidates from being elected. Regina, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw & a few other cities which make up about 50% of Saskatchewan’s population consistently vote about 70% NDP. These are broken up & combined with rural ridings which vote about 90% conservative. If seats were proportionally to the vote, Saskatchewan should have about five NDP to nine CPC, instead of thirteen CPC & one Liberal.

  • Robert

    Terry – Honestly, I think now we’re getting to the crux of the whole issue, particularly in western Canada.

    I don’t pretend to know enough about farmers’ politics to weigh in decisively on what they think about the Wheat Board – any evidence I can glean is largely inconclusive – but I think your comments highlight (even if inadvertently) that there is a noticeable and increasing divide between many citizens of this country in core urban and rural/suburban/small town communities.

    That, to me, is where the faultlines are most compelling, politically-speaking. This talk about ‘western alienation’ belies the fact that westerners in large cities (particularly in BC and Manitoba) tend to vote, as a majority, with parties other than the Conservatives (Calgary, in particular, excluded). More importantly, it belies the fact the trend is similar elsewhere in the country.

    In Ontario, for instance, people in Central/Southwestern/Eastern Ontario (i.e the province’s rural heartland) are voting Conservative in numbers that are not significantly different from people in southern Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and Central/Eastern/Northwestern British Columbia. Similarly, people in small cities/suburban communities in Ontario (the 905 region surrounding Toronto, Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge, etc.) are voting for the Conservatives, just like people in small cities/suburban communities in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

    The trend holds roughly throughout the Atlantic provinces, too.

    The only reason this all gets made into such a ‘regional’ issue, particularly out West, is because the aforementioned cities in Ontario have such a significant proportion of the population vis-a-vis the rest of the country. This invariably skews the representation of parties (the NDP and Liberals) that tend to be supported in higher numbers in these areas across the country precisely because the population concentrated in urban Ontario dictates that it gets more seats.

    Make no mistake though, these parties are well supported in cities throughout the country. Much like the Conservatives are in rural/suburban/small town communities throughout the country.

  • Robert

    Er, I meant ‘Central/Eastern/NORTHEASTERN British Columbia’ in the fourth paragraph.

  • Terry

    Shenping> I think you are almost there on the traditional grievances that western farmers have with the NDP and the Liberals, though you are wrong on the specifics. I would hardly call 1995-1996 late in Jean Chretien’s tenure for example. But you have actually taken the time to learn and listen, and understand that there is a reason for widespread anger in rural areas towards the parties of the left for policies they implemented and refuse to acknowledge did lasting harm. However that was in the past. The farmers who largely supported the left also largely dried up because they couldn’t adjust to running a business independently. Those that couldn’t do without the subsidies and market their own grain with the modern tools available are gone now. That’s why 20+ quarter sections are the norm now, and anyone who has less than 7 or 8 quarters simply isn’t making a living at it. They still get to vote though on whether the Wheat Board should be mandatory, even if they are making their living as teachers… or are dead, or are Wheat Board Employees, or haven’t farmed a crop in almost a decade. The CWB has been making some half-hearted efforts to look like their implementing reforms, but it is hard to make them do so when they haven’t got to compete for our business. If we don’t like the way they are managing our affairs, or they can’t change to cope with modern realities, we can’t vote with our feet. The state ensures that we must obey, or they will fine us, seize our equipment, and if necessary throw us in jail for contempt. This is the reason the Wheat Board hasn’t been able to adapt and develop a system that can adequately handle organic farming, an issue of concern for over 20 years.

    The Wheat Board occasionally does provide higher prices than the Americans, but just as often it provides lower prices. It all depends on who is buying, who is selling, what the crop conditions are in various countries, and of course the price of corn which drives all the other commodities. The Wheat Board does not pay above market rate for crops and neither does the Wheat Board command enough of a monopoly on world wheat markets to influence world prices. Sure the Wheat Board will claim to have “specific customers with relationships developed over time” which makes their market share larger than it would appear. However, what they don’t tell you is that their specific customers are largely just the few multinationals that ship it for export.

    Remember the Crow Rate you mentioned that killed any chance of value-added development on the prairies? Well business still continues on as usual, with the CWB selling to multinationals only the farmers pay for it instead of the government. Since the farmers pay the shipping, there is no incentive for either the CWB or the multinationals to change, so there is no local value added industry. If value added industry were to be created, it would have to be started by Co-op’s or farmer founded corporations. However, any competitive edge these farmer-run interests would have is cut off at the knees because you have to sell your own crop to the CWB and then buy it back again. So there is lots of smaller industries trading in all sorts of commodities on the prairies, but Wheat remains an export crop.

    Any advantage the Wheat Board gives as a monopoly serves primarily the interests of the Board itself, not the farmers who it is supposed to serve. That is why it is the stumbling block for two of the emergent market trends of organic food and local food. That is because it doesn’t have to listen, it doesn’t have to reform its electoral process, it doesn’t have to change and grow to keep the business of farmers. The state will always be there with the fist.

    As for both you and Robert, yeah I understand that rural and urban areas have different interests. Rural areas have a larger number of self-employed people who produce resources, and urban areas are made up of wage earning professionals who consume them. But I don’t think anyone is served by the CWB, either consumer or producer. I am btw, one of those urban wage-earning professionals and trust me, it is much easier and less stressful to achieve a decent standard of living that way than through farming. I had the student loans and I’m still not earning a great deal of money, but as long as I live within my means the state coddles me. I don’t have my own house yet, I don’t have a new car, but I can pretty much expect to live fairly well on an 8 hour day (plus overtime in these days of course).

    I would never have the time to blow on commenting on blogs if I was in my father’s line of work, and the debt load I would have to take on to revitalize his farm which is winding down just wouldn’t be worth it for the standard of living I’m going to accrue. That’s what urban professionals who don’t own their own businesses seem to not understand. For every dollar you spend outside of your business (tax or personal) is a dollar you can’t use to reinvest and grow your business. If you don’t replace your equipment, buy more land, buy more expertise, change methods of farming… your farm will shrivel up and die.

    The CWB neither serves the producer nor the consumer. The farmer does not achieve a higher price for wheat and malt barley, and he is denied access on those two commodities to both local markets and markets outside of the CWB’s “preferred customers”. The consumer doesn’t benefit, because he doesn’t get a better product or a cheaper product and the CWB is a stumbling block to achieving either.

    What is frustrating is that there is no way to get free of the CWB except through a Conservative majority. It makes one feel so helpless then to have your arguments and concerns thrown back in your face and derided as evil to boot. But I guess it is true that the powerful don’t know the powerless, and the powerless understand the powerful intimately.

  • http://www.scenesofacity.blogspot.com/ Jessica

    I think all your picks for a coalition cabinet are probably accurate and well-chosen, except I’d like to see Scott Brison in Finance, Ignatieff in Defense or Foreign Affairs, and Martha Hall Findlay in Justice.

  • Tom

    A plethora of pale portly reformers parading around parliament hill pointing out the plight they are in. What an image! Your complaints about regional representation can be made (with more validity) by other areas of the country today. Harper is a reform/aliant wolf in conservative clothing. Moderate conservatives are blinded by the Tory and will vote for the marketing strategy that is the federal Conservatives. There are no PC’s left anymore. They have sold their soul to the devil to get a grip on political power and are unable to think of anything else. Least among their worries if the fate of the country under the leadership of one of the most partisan, hypocritical, and devisive PM’s this country has ever seen.

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