Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

The rise of the Conservative nanny state

by Paul Wells on Monday, December 15, 2008 6:50am - 239 Comments

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When I wrote my most recent cranky, cranky column for the print magazine — whose thesis is that Stephen Harper so thoroughly despises Parliament and all the… the… people in it that he cannot stand to make the place function — a few commenters replied, in effect, that this was excellent news. A Conservative’s goal should be minimal government, they said. One way to achieve minimal government is, simply, to jam a stick between the spokes.

“Can’t one ‘care about the economy’ even if one doesn’t ‘believe… any government can do anything to affect its course’?” wrote David Mader (whose own blog is a thoughtful home for this sort of sentiment) in our comment board. “Indeed, isn’t the core premise of free-market conservatism that because government can’t really affect the economy’s course, those who really care about it should simply leave it alone?”

Sure. Great. Fine. Whatever. Have at it, brother. Except here’s the funny thing. The problem with Stephen Harper’s recent approach — I’m thinking roughly since smilin’ Guy Giorno came in with a mandate to make the operation “more political” — is that it is so shatteringly inept as to fail consistently to produce any coherent result, including the result the party’s own best advocates might desire. Which is why Colleague Coyne is in such a snit this morning. Having painted himself, all full of swagger and bravado, into a corner, the prime minister is now going to walk out on a carpet of tax dollars. Bail out the auto industry? That was last week’s concession. Now it’s forests and mines. And that cutting-edge sector of the future, boats, under the stewardship of every small-government conservative’s favourite freshly-minted Atlantic Gateway minister. In this context, it is poignant that some of Harper’s defenders still seem to believe the fight is about public funding for political parties. That one didn’t last 48 hours, and that time it was John Baird, who at least likes to play a small-government conservative on TV, who got sent out to swallow the government’s policy whole.

This, then, is the difference between the Mark I Harper, circa 2002 to 2008, and the shiny new malfunctioning Harper T-1000: the old guy used to calmly choose his concessions to statism (supply management? You bet! A bridge for every riding in Quebec? Sure!), whereas the new one blunders into one crisis after another and then uses the Money Gun to fight his way out. Deficits are “essential,” he said in Peru. Not so much to save the Canadian economy, it turns out, as to save his own political shanks.

If the fall update had contained fewer irritants, trivial in dollar amount but lovingly designed to infuriate the opposition parties and their client groups, it could have built the case for principled, effective dissent from the Keynesian orthodoxy driving most Western governments’ response to the crisis. Harper could then perhaps have looked like Angela Merkel, whose reassuring blandness is not merely a fleeting campaign-ad affectation and who, in a polity designed to produce ever-precarious parliamentary coalitions, has managed to set a markedly different course from the rest of panic-spending Europe. Instead Harper went in like Moe from the Three Stooges. And as a direct result, everything he is so proud of defending — the cuts to party funding, the dissent from deficit spending, the sink-or-swim approach to economic management — is falling away.

On his own blog a while ago, David Mader asked how come Liberals are celebrated for being jerks (Jean Chrétien) whereas this Conservative prime minister is pilloried for it. Here’s one answer. While indulging his inner jerk, Chrétien achieved what Liberals wanted. To pay the price for his inner jerk, Harper is about to deliver what Liberals want.

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  • Peter

    Jean Proulx: “Actually, no. Scandinavia was a traditionally a poor region of Europe It was with the rise of the welfare state that they became one of the most prosperous regions on earth (or in human history for that matter) and its people started to enjoy probably the highest quality of life in the world.”

    A quick search of the actual prosperity of countries reveals your argument to not only be facile, but actually refutes your theory.

    Selected countries by GDP per capita:

    USA 6
    Ireland 7
    Canada 12
    Sweded 16

    Leaving the US and Canada out, Ireland was actually the poorest region of Europe, but has risen in only 20 years to one oof it’s wealthiest, by shriniking the welfare state and slashing taxes. Sweden is on the decline, and with it’s oppressive welfare state has reduced the birthrate to near 0, relying exclusively on immigration to replace its citizens. These immigrants have refused to live by Swedish norms, causing massive social strife. Paradise? Please.

  • Peter

    Jean Proulx, more fun with numbers. GDP per capita figures for most of the world from 1969 to 2007 can be downloaded as time series in Excel. Very easy to rank and sort, compare growth rates, etc. as you no doubt know.

    Sweden’s growth rate over this period of 38 years is the third lowest in Europe, behind only the Netherlands and Denmark. Good old socialism at work in the progressive paradises? Your argument that Scandanavia was traditionally poor region is bogus. In the 60′s it was the wealthiest part of Europe, but has been caught and passed by less “progressive” regions. You just pulled that out of your hat and hoped, didn’t you?

    Ireland growth rate during this period was the highest in Europe, over double Swedens, and vaulted them from 4th worst to 2nd best in Europe in this same period.

  • http://withoutanetcanada.blogspot.com/ Without A Net (Jean Proulx)

    Peter – These immigrants have refused to live by Swedish norms, causing massive social strife.

    ———–

    Thank you for educating me Peter. I did not realize Stockholm was on fire.

  • http://withoutanetcanada.blogspot.com/ Without A Net (Jean Proulx)

    Peter – More fun with numbers. GDP per capita figures for most of the world from 1969 to 2007 can be downloaded as time series in Excel. Very easy to rank and sort, compare growth rates, etc. as you no doubt know…Your argument that Scandanavia was traditionally poor region is bogus. In the 60’s it was the wealthiest part of Europe, but has been caught and passed by less “progressive” regions. You just pulled that out of your hat and hoped, didn’t you?
    ———-

    Oh Peter, I know all about having fun with numbers and I agree that’s what you are doing. You see its all which numbers you use. You conveniently choose to start looking beginning at 1969 once Scandinvaia was already very wealthy.

    Your confusion is related to the fact that I used the word “traditionally” and you assumed this implied only going back 40 years. I am, of course, looking at a larger historical tableaux than you. If you back before the 20th century, you will see that Scandinavia was economically marginal (compared to countries such as Great Britain, France, Germany, etc.) It was only with the embrace of the welfare system (yes, well before 1969 my number-manipulating friend) that the region started to become so fabulously prosperous. Actually Canada presents a similar case study. Was the welfare state the ONLY reason for this prosperity? I would not go that far. But it certainly is conspicuous and it certainly does not appear to have hurt :)

    And I’m sorry I don’t have time series data for you. I instead rely on an elementary knowledge of history. By all means though, continue playing with your calculator.

  • Peter

    Jean Proulx: ” I instead rely on an elementary knowledge of history.” That is one of your more accurate statements, no doubt about it. I only spent enough time to find numbers back 40 years, they are very much at odds with your all too elementary knowledge. Where is Swedens vaunted prosperity? It has been caught and passed by countries which value hard work rather than punish it.

    What say you on Ireland? Its GDP per capita was one third of Sweden’s 40 years ago, and today is larger.

  • T. Thwim

    Peter: With respect to Ireland, examine their post-secondary system. They may have reduced taxes, but they did so in concert with a massive reduction in tuitions as well.

    However, at this stage, I’d be careful at looking at what anybody’s supposed “productivity” is.. especially because that number contains financial transactions as well, and I think we need to see what the shake-out is after this financial bubble has popped.

  • madeyoulook

    How naive, Peter. You expect to change a closed mind with actual factual evidence? Good luck with that.

    Hey, I mean all that in a good way…

  • Brad Sallows

    For several years in succession each federal government has become the greatest spender over all its predecessors. However, as a measure of %GDP the CPC government has held its spending approximately steady. In dollars, program expenses took a jump in the 2008 budget (over 2007) by a little under $7B. Transfers to other levels of government increased by just over $4B – which is where most of the past few years of spending growth has occurred – and about $1.5B was new initiatives. There is also year-over-year inflation to be accounted; I can’t find an exact measure but on a base amount of $200B+ it must be worth a couple of $B. I obtained those numbers from the fin.gc.ca website.

    If former governments broke the deficit by downloading expenses, we should be satisfied that current and recent governments have been making restitution.

    The “structural deficit” is easy to fix – cut some spending. Not much needs to be cut to make up the difference. But for those who support the Liberal/NDP spending proposals – please cleanly admit that $30B in combined revenue (tax) cuts and spending increases is not something that can be swept under the carpet as a “tiny deficit” or balanced out with “modest cuts”. No one who desires a Liberal or Liberal/NDP government based on their current platforms has much basis for criticizing the Conservatives for overspending or undertaxing.

  • T. Thwim

    Brad, you won’t find a liberal or NDP supporter criticizing the conservative government for overspending. That’s simply a straw-man you’ve made up.

    You will find them criticizing the conservatives for promising one thing, and then delivering completely another. And if you want to be really accurate, what’s actually being criticized is the blind willingness of the conservative supporter to swallow the load and say it was the tasty treat they were expecting all along. The criticism is at the average conservative voter who is so far into their partisanship that any disconnect between what the conservative party promises and what the conservative party does is simply glossed over.

    That worries us. It worries us because it suggests that conservative supporters are willing to ignore being repeatedly lied to by their party and we find ourselves asking, “Why? What on earth makes these people happy to see conservative government governing like Liberals other than the fact that it’s called a conservative government” and when you start thinking along those lines the mind quickly turns to things like bill C-10, C-61, C-484, and the various other bills pointing the way to social conservatives legislatively oppressing their beliefs and values upon others.

  • Peter

    T. Twit:“Brad, you won’t find a liberal or NDP supporter criticizing the conservative government for overspending. That’s simply a straw-man you’ve made up.”

    Fer Chrissakes Twit, check bac 20-30 posts in this same thread, the exact criticism you claim isn’t there is right infront of your face.

  • Brad Sallows

    >Brad, you won’t find a liberal or NDP supporter criticizing the conservative government for overspending. That’s simply a straw-man you’ve made up.

    It is not. There are plenty of bloggers and commenters who accept what they’re told – that the Conservative government has set a new high watermark for budget expenditures (true) – and run with it on face value. Basically, it’s the “tu quoque” bandwagon, but with a convenient memory hole for how Liberals have governed and a willingness to ignore the implications of what exactly the Liberals and NDP propose. I’m not entirely satisfied with the Conservative approach to spending, but I try to temper it with an understanding of which spending is worthy and which is just cheap politics.

    The “disconnect” is the understanding that what the government must do in the interests of all Canadians including those who didn’t vote CPC is not always going to align with what I prefer. Sometimes the government will not favour my interests because it is deliberately courting votes. I accept that. “Not one step back” and “NIMBY” are not helpful principles to follow if we are to have a society rather than clans. So from where I sit, much of the criticism being levelled by Liberal and NDP supporters is self-criticism. They are making ad hominem arguments (in the proper sense: arguing “to the person” that he should stand by his principles), but those can only be vacuous appeals to anyone who is not a rigid ideologue.

    Who is the “us” whose favoured party does not also lie and subscribe to weak economic tenets and practices?

  • T. Thwim

    Peter, go back to the kids table, please. When you can come back with something other than name calling, perhaps the grown-ups will speak to you.

    Brad, fair points. I would suggest however that the length and breadth of the lies espoused by the conservative party are unrivalled by other parties in Canada to date. Typically, the lie of a political party is to promise one thing and then not do it. However, when it comes to Mr. Harper, his lying has quite often being promising one thing, and then actively doing the exact opposite. What is more, the overarching theme of his ’06 campaign wasn’t on the policy/day announcements, but rather that he was going to govern differently and better than the Liberals. I think it’s fairly obvious at this point that his governing style has not been a bit different, except for the ways in which it is nastier and more wasteful (ie 10 percenters, the two year “Not-a-leader” non-election election campaign, etc.)

    Perhaps I’m not as into the blogging scene as some, but, at least for me, I’ve never approached the issue without an understanding that the Liberals and NDP also spent more.. but the difference is that the supporters of these parties typically approve of these things. Hell, there was a lot of grumbling amongst Liberals when Martin started announcing his cuts.

    So this brings me back to what I was saying before. The party continues to support Mr. Harper — quite loudly and robustly — despite his repeated betrayals of the supposed financial principles of the conservative ideology. This brings up the question of “Why?” and the answers are not pleasant. I’m pretty strong in believing that were their more grumbles being heard from the conservative party about Mr. Harper’s governance, the vitriol held against him by the opposition would not be nearly as loud. I really wish there were more conservative supporters like you who were willing to say “Yeah, that stuff sucks, but I still like him better because of this, this, and this” rather than the fingers-in-ears “lalala, everything he does is wunnerful” mentality that seems to pervade most of the party.

    After all, it’s only by acknowledging the failures that we can be assured they won’t happen again. I’d really like to see Conservatives taking Mr. Harper to task when he lies on things like softwood lumber negotiations, income trusts, or unelected senators, but then still supporting him. Help make him a better leader by telling him not to make those kind of mistakes rather than encouraging him to go further and further (ie fixed election dates)

  • Mulletaur

    Peter, so in character for you to cut words out of context to make a point which is so off-topic it doesn’t even have the honour of being wrong. A 2% GST cut makes a big difference to the deficit, which is now structural because no matter how hot the economy is, the federal government will not be able to cover expenditures with revenues without borrowing. It also undoubtedly encouraged some consumers to spend on big ticket items. For example, a few more people would have purchased automobiles as a result … oops, I guess that didn’t work so well, did it ?

    In fact, the GST cut did nothing to increase consumption in any significant way in the economy. Conservatives can repeat the contrary as much as they want, but they have no numbers to back it up. Consumption taxes are regressive – reducing the rate of consumption taxes is equally regressive. That is why the GST didn’t help – it didn’t put any money in the hands of people who would have spent it. Starting the personal exemption for income tax at $20,000 per year (that’s somebody working on average 2000 hours at $10/hour) would. That is where taxes should have been cut, not the GST. Now there is no flexibility to do that due to the GST cut. Our economist Prime Minister apparently doesn’t get this. Harper – Not A Leader.

  • Sojourner

    The lack of polling information this week is deafening! Give me some good polling stats please. And don’t tell me they don’t have the data and didn’t run polls over the weekend. The idea is absurd.

    If I don’t get a poll result damned soon, I shall have to conclude the last polling stats have been turned on their head. Have Canadians finally come to their senses? One can only hope.

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