Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

Penny for your thoughts or any carbon-intensive activities that result therefrom

by Paul Wells on Sunday, December 28, 2008 6:49pm - 163 Comments

Tom Friedman’s column in the Sunday New York Times begins the way all Tom Friedman columns do — Hi! I’ve got a Big Idea™ and I’m just going to type like a dervish until you catch up with me about halfway down the column! — but eventually it turns out to be… well, poignant, if you’re a Canadian reader. For Friedman is today urging President-Elect Obama “to increase the federal gasoline tax or impose an economy-wide carbon tax.”

Friedman holds out no great hope that Obama will actually do such a thing. Obama didn’t campaign on a carbon-tax promise after all. The Democrat’s preferred choice of mechanism is a cap-and-trade scheme closer to Stephen Harper’s: massively interventionist, cumbersome, harrowingly difficult to design, prone to loopholes and investor confusion, destined to take forever to implement — in a word, French. It’s easy to see why Stephen Harper and John Baird would have cooked up such a plan: they were banking on delay and eventual failure. Massively awful program design was a feature for them, not a bug. It’s also easy to understand why Stéphane Dion preferred cap-and-trade at first, because as we’ve all learned, Canada’s new coalition prime minister has a soft spot for cumbersome solutions that don’t actually work.

It’s less clear why Obama is in the cap-and-trade business, unless some Obama fans are right when they worry that Obama’s “moderation” is actually a prelude to exquisitely even-handed difference-splitting that will  produce no real change. Whatever the case, the questions and challenges Friedman puts in this column are also worth putting to anyone who claims to want to address climate change with anything resembling the fierce urgency of now. People like, say, this guy:

Michael Ignatieff, after all, was the first of the 2006-vintage Liberal leadership candidates to propose a carbon tax. I’m not saying that in a blame-y way, and unlike Ryan Sparrow I do not now plan to dismiss everything the Liberal sort-of-leader proposes from now on as the ramblings of a carbon taxer. It’s fair of Ignatieff to say, as Bob Rae and Dominic LeBlanc were saying when they still thought there would be a leadership campaign, that the voters were asked their opinion of carbon taxes in October and they gave a firm answer.

But that leaves a question hanging. If you believe climate change is real and catastrophic; that human agency can inflect its course; that Canada has something to contribute to the search for a solution; and that dawdling is no longer permissible — then what better idea do you have?

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  • Cdn in Europe

    Folks, GW is not a matter of opinion. It is a matter of atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing. For folks like KC, the nutter posting in this thread who has been consistently repeating the bizarre claim that the Earth has been cooling for ten years, this blog’s fpr you: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/instrumental-record/

    Now get this clear: RealClimate.org is written by bona fide, working professional climate scientists. I know some of them personally, and have worked closely with one of them for more than a year (a scientist who goes to Antarctica and various glaciers drilling ice cores, and who has a whole labful of analytic chemistry equipment to analyse those cores). Let me be absolutely clear: If these people are “perpetrating a hoax”, they have been diabolically clever about it. They have managed to conceal any such hoaxy intentions not only from the world, and from their scientific peers, and from their employers at several of the world’s finest universities, but from me personally. The idea that KC and nutters of his type carry around is: “RealClimate.org is written by people who do not agree with my obsessive belief that GW is a hoax; therefore it is a “biased” source that should be ignored.” KC, try to achieve a moment of clarity: You, not these world-class scientists, are the punk here. YOU are the biased source. You have a blind belief, and you keep feeding it pre-filtered crap, repeating only the pseudoscientific crap that justifies you in your obsessive belief.

    As for Dick Lindzen, Roger Pielke et al.: There are very few bona fide working climate scientists who cast doubt on the impact of rising CO2 levels on global temperature projections (remember, there’s a time lag of decades before we’ll feel the full effects of increased GHGs, because of the thermial inertia of the oceans). There are, however, a few. Why? No matter what the subject, for any scientific question of complexity, you’ll find some people taking extreme positions, and contrasting this with the mainstream scientific view – or, more cannily, staking out no clear position of their own, and just casting doubt on the mainstream instead. Sometimes this is from a stubborn obsession with the idea that they know the Truth that everyone else has overlooked; sometimes it’s a love of notoriety – today, the easiest way to get undeserved celebrity as a climate scientist is to take some kind of “skeptic” position, since you’ll become an instant hero to the KCs of the world; sometimes it’s just crackpottiness, since it turns out even some folks with PhDs aren’t immune to the same kind of obsessive insistence that the world as they imagine they’d like it to be is the world that must be. What is clear is this: If you understand anything about how the enterprise of science works, how its peer review and professional status system works, you will know that the idea there’s some kind of a vast conspiracy amongst climate scientists to hide The Truth is not only laughable, it is actually impossible. Moreover, you will understand that you should be far more skeptical of what scientists on the fringe of the mainstream consensus say than of the mainstream scientists. Mainstream science is mainstream for a reason. It’s overwhelmingly more likely to be accurate, especially, as in this case, where multiple independent lines of evidence ranging from paleoclimate data to direct measurements of the transparency of various atmospheric gases to visible light and to infrared light all converge on the same conclusion: Massive climate change due to GW is in the pipeline because CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide are transparent to visible light but opaque to infrared (unlike N2 and O2, which are transparent to both).

    Try to understand that atmospheric chemistry is not a matter of political opinion. Insisting it’s a hoax doesn’t make it a hoax. There is no rule other than Rush Limbaugh’s Rule of Right-wing Sheep Following Opinion Leaders Blindly that says “conservatives” should deny mainstream scientific opinions they are not qualified to judge, simply because a few right-wing opinion leaders paid off by the oil and coal industries have parrotted some talking points for their clueless listeners to obsessively repeat. If you think mainstream climate science is a hoax, you are a clueless sucker. Sorry to break the harsh news to ya. Happy new year.

    • John.K

      Right on, but perhaps you have confused KC with SF?

      • http://macleans.ca kc

        thanks john. i was dreading getting into a slanging match with cie. he’s informative but a little too windy for me.

      • Cdn in Europe

        Sorry, I think I was confusing KC and Kody. But SF and Kody are pretty much interchangeable. My apologies to KC.

        • http://macleans.ca kc

          Apology accepted. I had a look at Piekkes site ; he didn’t seem a nutter to me. Healthy skepticisim of mainstream ideas are both healthy and necessary. I empathise with yr frustration with the Kody’s/sf’s of this world, but resorting to mud-slinging will simply get us all covered in mud. Something i’m sure will delight the Exxons of this world. I’ve said earlier in the thread, that i think , for whatever reason, allowing the debate to be recast in moral/ gaia terms [ emoitional ] has been a stategic error. I have much symphathy with the enviro agenda, but a sensible, practicable communication strategy is an imperitive. ‘ Habit is not to be thrown out of the window by any man, but has to be coaxed down stairs one step at a time’ Twain.

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