Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

Shorter Lawrence Martin

by Paul Wells on Friday, January 2, 2009 12:22pm - 70 Comments

What’s it been, three years already? I’m bored; bring me a new prime minister.

Tags: Actually that's shorter everyone these days

More by Paul Wells

Wayne

Lawrence martin : the guy who bought you the latest political prediction in the TGM that says Harper will resign this year! ROFL LMAO – apparently he overlooked the little appreciated fact that Stevie boy has only 12 more seats to go (maybe less if you factor in the bi’-elections) for a majority and any leader who would willingly give up a possible third term with this staring him in the face would be stupid … which though Steve may be many things stupid is definitely not one of them. I for one predict a spring 2010 election as there is no way the Lib’s (nor the CPC) want to let Harper sit for longer than a year and give the Canadian voter a real chance to get to know Iggy and at the same time lay credit to improving economic conditions by that time as the worst should be over with with canada slowly coming out well ahead of where we would have been had we a Lib gov’t and lots opportunities for Stevie to have warm and fuzzy Obama moments. Speaking of which pretty soon we will be having the perennial debate of who Obie wil be visiting first – I predict US with Obie addressing the House of C.
DianeG

How did you make Lawrence Martin (whoever he is) shorter?

There are a few people I’d like to cut down to size so I could use the recipe.

Oh, perhaps you meant his words and not his body.
http://phantomobserver.com PhantomObserver

Yeah, that’s about it, really.

But if we’re going to discuss Harper’s exit from the federal scene, I think it’s more likely to happen in 2014 than in 2009. For the following reasons:

Assuming the Tories manage to stay in power under his leadership, 2014 would mark 8 years as prime minister, or the equivalent of an American president’s constitutionally-allowed tenure in office. That’s usually long enough for the electorate to start grumbling about the need for change in the incumbent government.
Harper will be 55 in 2009, an age when early retirement starts looking like a good option.
By 2014, more Tories with a potential for good leadership will have been identified. So far, the only contenders as Harper’s eventual replacement (in the event of an emergency, for example) are Peter McKay, Jim Prentice, and Stockwell Day (and in Day’s case, only on an interim basis at best). More time is needed to see if other Tories can develop leadership potential..
Jarrid

The smart money says read Lawrence Martin’s political analyses to have a good chuckle and seek your political prognostications elsewhere.

If anyone banked on Lawrence’s Martin’s past political predictions they’d be in the poor house.
William

Oh , Lawrence Martin , Jeffrey Simpson, James Travers,—-You`re like 3 old men sitting around talking about the good old days—-I am so sick of these Toronto centrist writers trying to tell the rest of us how things should be done.
Hey I have an idea—let`s start a rumour that Lawrence Martin is going to retire before everybory realixes he`s always been a Liberal cheerleader.
Harper is not going anywhere, but I know of lots of journalism grads who would be more inciteful and investigative then these old cheerleaders could ever be so move on boys.
Wascally Wabbit

St. Stephen of Calgary sent the cavalry out early this morning – didn’t he?
Lucky you Colleague Wells – that the other Mr. Martin has been rambling somewhat in his last few prognostications. Having listened to him being interviewed several times in the immediate post pro-roguing period – he zigged and zagged and clearly hadn’t a clue (sounded remarkably like his namesake in fact – whither goest!
Now at last he has flipped his coyne (sorry – couldn’t resist – first pun of 2009) – and I tend to agree with him…not in a partisan manner (unlike the Bots who rolled out earlier)…but simply because Ignatieff – by virute of the “Gods looking favourably” image that St. Lawrence scribbled – holds all the cards.
Harper has no inner compass left – he has absolutely no policy wiggle room…he will survive from month to month (as any minority leader should) by doing what is acceptable to the majority opposition parties…until one or the other of them (probably in partnership of at least one other – even though it is not called a coalition per se.) will pull the rug out from Harper’s feet.
And if the CPC loses this year – expect the long Tory knives to come out.

William

—Could you check your Meds.—I do not understand anything you wrote—there must be a blockage somewhere—-that pun wasn`t even little bit funny.

http://macleans.ca kc

As suscint a diagnosis of con-botisim as yr likely to ever come across.

Shenping

Harper’s inner compass still points true to where it always has — himself.

dB

I share your view on the absurdity of this item. I am also thrilled to see Inkless embracing Pundit Accountability! Will you be accepting submissions?

Paul Wells

It’s not clear how I can stop them.

John W

Ridicule.

http://www.maderblog.com David Mader

I wish I could believe it was just boredom, rather than animus. Maybe the one drives the other.
John W

The Ottawa punditry didn’t see the Economic Statement coming and fell for sweaterman, and missed the significance of Giorno (except for Kady).

You’ll never get the guy out of Stornaway, House of Commons, or the Ottawa fish bowl he controls. This cowboy don’t belong in Calgary that’s for sure.

Related or not, I wanted to mention that, leaving aside the racial aspect, isn’t there a lot of Manning, Harris, Harper in today’s Krugman column on the Republican Party’s ideas about competence and success in government? Although I would disagree with Martin, Krugman is saying it’s totally over for these guys, Atwater, Gingrich, Bush, Cheney, etc. Does this apply to our extreme rightists too? If he’s as smart as everybody says, does Harper understand this?

John W

Before someone mentions it,I know Atwater’s dead.

http://prairiewrangler.wordpress.com/ Olaf

See, this is weird. Normally, I tend to agree with PW and (strongly) disagree with Lawrence Martin, but if the latter had forumlated his column as “why Harper should resign” instead of “why Harper will resign”, I would have to agree with him despite all my better judgment and accumulated spite.

I think Harper’s facing a number of obstacles that not even his awesome chess-playing acumen can overcome, including: a) the economy; b) a non-useless Liberal leader; c) his indomitable personality disorder; d) a rather impressive record of obfuscation and dishonesty; and e) VAMPIRE ATTACKS!

In case you were wondering, I added e) in a futile attempt to make my comment less boring.

http://macleans.ca kc

Harper is clearly a were-wolf not a vampire. Ignatieff on the other hand is a vampire. Place yr bets.

http://macleans.ca kc

Stupid me. You clearly do understand the finer distinctions of the underworld.
Have to agree with you that it should be should, rather than will. I enjoy Martin[L[ myself, probably because he mostly tells me what i want to hear. A list of plausible reasons why Harper will stay is about as credible as Martin’s. Indeed the most likely reason is having drunk from the well of Power, he like all politicians wants more. I see no evidence that quibbles like will or should will have any effect on a driven character like Harper. Still it is hard to see how luck can possibly favour SH any more then i already has.
Shenping

Harper’s not a werewolf. His horror-movie analogy is The Blob That Ate Bay Street (or its bankrolling of the Libs at least)

Mike T.

I find him a bit of a ghoul. Although the hair is totally frankenstein.

Kaplan

Shorter Paul Wells: I’m bored and having nothing of note to say today, but I’m grumpy because I didn’t get to play foreign correspondent this week, so let’s have a go at Lawrence Martin, who just, like, really bugs me.

Paul Wells

That’s actually longer.
Ryan Rigby

Who did you say is grumpy?
http://macleans.ca kc

Paul has a right to be as grumpy as…say L. Martin. Still i wonder if a shorter P Wells might have been appropriate near the end of the other Martins reign. Although it wasn’t perhaps boredom then but … [ don't want to put words in PW's mouth ]

Geiseric the Lame

Harper’s passed his best before date. How long he stays on the shelf is anybody’s guess.
Jarrid

Why isn’t the punditry talking about the anointed one: Michael Ignatieff, descendant of a Russian Prince and heir-apparent to the country’s top job?

It’ bad enough that the Liberals back-room elite had a leader installed but you’d think the punditry, which although drawing its same set of cultural assumptions from that same elite, would want to kick the tires somewhat before joining in the anointing process.

I’m sensing nervousness that the Crown Prince may not yet be ready for Prime Time.

Don’t worry folks, Harper will have his feet to the fire before long, one wedge issue at a time.

http://macleans.ca kc

Ok so Ignatieff was annointed [ if he had been voted in i'm sure Jarrid would now be moaning about the antiquated system used and unctuously explaining why even a coronation would have been an improvement ] And SH bought his way into party leadership. Six of one and half a dozen of the other.
madeyoulook

He wasn’t anointed. He was acclaimed from among three candidates. No wait, let me try that again…

kody

Members of the liberal media building a case for our conservative PM’s ouster?

How ironic that the case he’s trying to build is one of boredom of the “same old, same old”.

Tomorrow and every day hence, the sun will rise, the sun will set.

And L. Martin and his liberal cohorts will spin against Harper.

Derek Pearce

You forgot to add your signature tagline- “Today’s progressive tolerant left.”

But yes, the sun will still rise and set, and the National Post and its Conservative cohorts will spin against Ignatieff.

kody

Here, I’ll translate the article from a realist perspective:

“With each successive election, Harper has (contrary to my and other pundits predictions [hopes]) made significant gains: from obscurity, to minority, to near majority. Now he is poised to take a majority against the party that I long to see back in power, but one that is disorganized, has no unifying principles or even platform, is broke and recently destroyed its only remaining brand as defenders of federalism with its deal with the seperatist devil. I therefor prey that, on the cusp of Harper’s apex of power, the party somehow pulls the rug out from under him, so that the party representing my leftist myopic ideals that permeate my (and my fellow media travellers) worldview, will miraculously regain their rightful rule over us.

Please, oh please let this happen.”
Riley

Once again, Wells writes what everybody is thinking. Non-partisan, non-bias.

I know this is probably a dumb question, but is it possible Wells could take over Mike Duffy’s show? Paul Wells Live! Honestly, nobody is better to fill in for that show than Wells.

I’m guessing that Wells wouldn’t want the job, and is happy writing and travelling, but Canadians need a good political-analysis show and we don’t really have it currently. I guarantee a show that was hosted by Paul would generate a lot of viewers.

Paul Wells

They’d have to run it on the Paint-Drying Network.

sf

You mean CBC?
Wascally Wabbit

Take one step to the side PW…you wouldn’t want to get crushed by the Coyne / Gregg (Heck – maybe even Coren) stampede – would you?

Jarrid

I have to think that filling the position of host of Mike Duffy Live would be a high priority appointment for the Conservatives in 2009 and am surprised that they haven’t yet moved on it. Somehow I doubt PW would be on the short list.

Riley

The point is Canada should have a well-thought-out political show that asks interesting questions of pundits, politicians and newsmakers. We don’t have one. Instead we have supper-hour shows that give 3 minutes to each party to blather on about whatever talking point they were given on their blackberry, and then a five minute wrap-up of journalists who barely have enough time to get in a lame joke.

Paul Wells is the only journalist who could actually moderate a thought-provoking hour of discussion. My guess is he wouldn’t just sit there and let people blather on til they are blue in the face, he might actually ask them real questions.

One thing though, if you do host the show Paul; I expect a fancy magic board of riding information tout de suite

Paul Wells

OK, I would totally do it if I could have the Jon King magic politics board. That’s not negotiable.

Critical Reasoning

I’m not sure CTV could afford one of those. Could you make do with a whiteboard and dry erase markers?

Derek Pearce

While in addition to federal politics this show often covers world politics, Queen’s Park politcs, and some business and cultural news, the best political show on TV is TVO’s “The Agenda with Steve Paiken.” It’s thought provoking, shows no bias, and is very in depth. And most episodes are fully available on The Agenda’s website the day after airing. Check it out!

Mike T.

Best Jarrid post ever! I salute you, sir!

http://deleted Nota Bene™

if Wellzie takes the Puffster’s gig at the ole Foyer, does this mean he needs to grow seven chins and sport a pail that precludes his ability to tie his own shoes, as well as, form a circle-jerk to campaign for an Odor of Canada? Because if it does, there is the distinct possibility of him opening himself up for ridicule.
However, that never seemed to bother the Puffster …. AND he did win the “CASH FOR LIFE” !!!

Riley

Does that mean you wouldn’t do it?
Kaplan

I second the idea of Wells taking over Duffy’s show.

And as per my shorter Wells: dammit.
Paul Wells

Hey I got a new avatar. I think everyone should change their avatar every few weeks.

Riley

Don’t change the subject! Let’s start a write-in-campaign to get Wells to host a new CTV show! Paul Wells Live!

write the folks at CTV News at news@ctv.ca and tell them they need a real host and not some cheap-fill-in. They need Wells!

Geiseric the Lame

Since its a proven Senate springboard, not until he proves he can at least sit still during afternoon nap.
sf

How do we know what Wells sounds like? Does he have the voice for a talk show? He might be a James Earl Jones or Clint Eastwood… but on the other hand, he might be a Bobcat Goldthwait, Joe Pesci, or Gilbert Gottfried.

Critical Reasoning

Personally, I would love to hear a political talk show host with a voice like Joe Pesci. It would be great for interviews. “You breakin’ my f—ing balls here?”

archangel

So, next week it’s a volleyball? Paint a smiley on that one, Mr. Wells.

Jack Mitchell

Well, SH is very boring from a policy point of view, though his reign has been quite lively from the animalistic bloodletting point of view.

Funny how Paul Martin was ridiculed (including, to both the Californians who would listen, by me) for wanting to be PM but not really wanting to govern, just to sit on the throne dealing righteous judgment. Now we’ve got another Paul Martin, in the form of SH, who differs only in manner. Yet SH is perceived as a sinister Machiavellian genius. SH’s best trick was showing up when all his Reform rivals, all the PC wet noodles, and all the grown-up Liberals were dead. He’s run from the bear faster than everybody else, but now they’re all devoured and the bear is catching up.

http://macleans.ca kc

Timing is everything. How’s Ignatieffs?
Mike T.

It’s only boring because it’s been going on so long. When Chretien did it back in 93 it was kind of novel.

http://macleans.ca kc

Agreed. To my shame i loved Chretien. I’ll never forget the slap-down of Gomery and those wonderful golf balls. If we must have perfidy lets at least make it entertaining. Somehow Harper even managed to make his’ just whatch me moment’ – denouncing the deal with the devil lifeless.

Two Yen

Here in Japan we’ve had a new prime minister every year for the past three years. The new guy (Taro Aso) is so unpopular he’s only been in office only three months and there is already talk of replacing him. This rotation of prime ministers has done nothing to make Japanese economic policies (or any other policies for that matter) more coherent.

Let’s let Harper stick around for at least five years so we can have some policy stability. Canadians don’t realize how lucky they are to have some who is competent, albeit a bit prickly, as prime minister.

Ah….maybe I should re-phrase that — judging from the polls Canadians understand how lucky we are. It may be just the punditocracy that misses the point that Harper has been dellivering half-decent goverance. Before anyone gets too excited, that I am ready to accept the level of quality being offered by the Harper government as the best there is to offer, let me be clear. I’m not saying he’s been brilliant. I’m just comparing him to the alternatives. Dion anyone? Jumpin’ Jack?

Two Yen

Yeah, yeah, I realize Dion has gone. But Iggy is still in learning curve mode and only the leftie ideologues actually believe he doesn’t need more time to get his act together before we make a call on whether he’s make a decent alternative to Harper.
http://macleans.ca kc

Harper’s competence is very much in question these days. Still Flaherty will probably take a bullet for him. There may very well be no-one else around, but he has so poisoned the waters, who knows? Perhaps the libs will feel less vulnerable now and Harper consequently less compative. I don’t know any one here who believes that.

http://www.frontenachouse.com Ron Wood

Paul: Hope you’re correct in your prediction that the Press Gallery will be a little less breathless when covering confidence votes and give us a little more detail on the reason for the votes. Here in Manyberries we found last year that the drama of vote by vote coverage by the jocks doing the play by play tended to flatten the beer and sour the wine.
Joseph

Lawrence Martin is wrong! Harper isn’t going anywhere but up. A recent Compas Research poll has the Conservatives at 43%, Liberals at 30% and NDP at 13 %. Not a time to change your leader.
Jeff.J

There’s that journalistic mediocrity gene the Martin family (Lawrence, Don, and Patrick) carries rearing its ugly head again. Harper won’t be going over to the other side any time soon. The tax cutting to come in the budget is as conservative as it gets, as is reducing the size of government that is inevitable when temporary deficits have to be paid off. Goodbye CBC, cultural freeloaders, and others who consume wealth rather than create it.

Harper’s boys are years ahead of the indolent hacks at the Globe and The Star.

http://macleans.ca kc

Dream on. harper isn’t listening to you either.

Francien Verhoeven

Lawrence Martin has been trying for some time now to have people jump onto his bandwagon; he will keep pushing this self fulfilling prophecy. It’s all getting a bit old and tiresome, but he hasn’t understood that just yet. Martin doesn’t understand Harper, nor does he want to understand Harper. It’s as simple as that.

http://macleans.ca kc

‘ Martin doesn’t undrstand Harper… ‘ that is true of many of us. Three times [ i think? ] Canadians have sent him to Ottawa with a MINORITY and a mandate to work with the other parties. Times up. He better start listening.