News from the Climate Change Skeptic

Bjorn Lomborg has written a challenging article on why Barack Obama should not do…

by Alex Shimo on Thursday, January 15, 2009 12:52pm - 35 Comments

Bjorn Lomborg has written a challenging article on why Barack Obama should not do anything about climate change. Lomborg is probably the most respected of climate change skeptics, and author of two books, The Skeptical Environmentalist and Cool It. He doesn’t dispute that global warming is happening, but argues our money is better spent on other policy goals. He makes the following points.

1) Global food production is expected to decrease with climate change, but only by a small amount: 1.4 per cent. Even under the most pessimistic predictions, advances in technology mean food production can more than keep pace with this slight decrease to feed the world’s hungry.

2) Implementing the Kyoto Protocol will cost $180 billion annually. If we spent $10 billion annually on direct food aid, the United Nations estimates we could help 299 million hungry people now.

3) Sea levels are rising, but they have been rising since the early 1800s. (The last mini Ice age was from 1550-1850, which is why sea levels have been rising for that long. Since 1993, the rate of rise has in fact increased).

4) Coastlines are determined as much by the natural climate as by human intervention. The massive humanitarian disaster caused by Hurricane Katrina was mainly because of the lack of intervention to protect the coast and disorganized and poorly-managed clean up efforts. New Orleans needs to focus on how to protect itself against the next hurricane, as there will be another hurricane of equal ferocity regardless of how the planet is affected by global warming.

Anyway, you can read the full article here. I have some objections to his points, but I’d like to hear from readers first.

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  • Ti-Guy

    I have some objections to his points, but I’d like to hear from readers first.

    Well, this ought to be good… ;)

    • John.K

      If by “good” you mean “repetitive and verging often on hysterical recitation of things the writer doesn’t understand but read on some blog somewhere”.

      • http://macleans.ca kc

        Now,now boys, cynics have to go to the BACK of the line remember.

        • John.K

          You’ll pardon this cynic if he stands in a completely different line, I’m sure.

  • darcymeyers

    I think the recognition of our limited ability to affect climate change is an important point. We have been forced to adapte to natural climate change for thousands of years, and have been pretty effective at survival. Even if we were able to “stabilize” global temps, should we? Take anthroogenic generated climate change out of the equation, and there still will be climate change-we still will require adaptability.
    Recognizing our limitations to inhibit change, and our strengths at adaptability; perhaps he has a point in how we would best utilize our resources.

    • Critical Reasoning

      Very well said. Too bad this kind of common sense was absent from most of the politically-motivated media hyperbole about Kyoto.

  • http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

    How can Bjorn Lomborg be described as a ‘skeptic’ if he believes global warming is occurring?

    Or are ‘skeptics’ people who believe in global warming, but have other priorities, and ‘deniers’ are the actual skeptics?

    And most respected by who? I would say Steve McIntyre and Anthony Watts have a better argument for being respected skeptics, I think, than Lomborg does because they actually question global warming numbers and projections.

    • T. Thwim

      Perhaps a skeptic in that he doesn’t think that global warming is serious or that we should be particularly concerned about it.

      I prefer the term “inactivists” for those type of people myself.

      Of course, Lomborg’s statistics to leave something to be desired. Global rainfall, for instance, is not a good measure, as one of the dangers in global warming is increased local instability of weather. So while total rainfall will increase, when it’s drought in the food producing regions of the country (which tend to be lower and flatter, generally) and flooding in the industrialized regions (near hills and rivers generally) that the total amount of rainfall hasn’t changed that much is of little consolation.

      That the total amount of hurricane energy has decreased is similarly of little value if the total number of hurricanes has decreased more than that — both of which were predicted by climate scientists in peer reviewed journals. In essence having one category 5 hurricane is far worse than having three category 3 hurricanes in a season, even though the total hurricane energy is far less. And this is exactly what the real climate scientists have been predicting in the journals. Fewer storms but those that do form will have higher intensities, and there is an increased likelihood of them forming in areas normally not affected by hurricanes (ergo, not ready for them)

      That said, I now agree with Lomborg that this is not the time for us to be worrying about modifying our effects on the climate. With methane being directly released up in the arctic circle now, I tend to believe any opportunity we had to prevent serious shifts is now lost. So instead we should start spending money on how to adapt to emergency conditions. We need to get in place serious plans on how we are going to prepare for new diseases, deal with localized famines and the resultant violence, and respond to an increasing number of weather related natural disasters hitting our economic centers and coastlines.

    • http://dougsamu.wordpress.com/ dougrogers

      “How can Bjorn Lomborg be described as a ’skeptic’ if he believes global warming is occurring?”

      Skeptic not necessarily = Scientifically illiterate

      • wayne moores

        Couldn’t it be possible that he believes the planet warms and cools as it always has and always will irregardless of what we do or weather we are even here or not. The most annoying thing about the alarmists is that I have never heard from Big Al or Suzuki as to just what the fricken temperature of the planet is supposed to be so they would be happy. Should it be at the temperature the world was at during the mini ice age we had during the late middle ages? Should it be the temperature that occoured during the last “big” ice age when most of the Northern Hemisphere was incased in ice? I can only assume(since they refuse to say) that they don’t want the temperature any higher than it is now even though the Earth has been warmer than it is now and that happened pre industrial revolution. In the 20th century the temp rose .50 of 1C. In the last 10 years the temp has declined .14 of 1C. If the temp went down another .36 of one degree would that be enough? I cannot believe that media or someone is not asking these questions. Gore and others expect average people to radically deminish their standard of living, fork over billions of dollars and just take their word for it. Oh and Big Al isn’t giving up anything. His Tennessee mansion burns up more energy than most subdivions. Bono(another noted environmentalist and “scientist” isn’t giving up his private jet anytime soon) also wants big changes and big bucks…from everyone else. Sorry, call me a denigher if you wish. But damn well wouldn’t be a sucker.

    • TJ Cook

      So we have Bjorn Lomborg (political scientist and statistician), Steve McIntyre (mathematician) and Anthony Watts (not even a meteorologist but certified to read the weather on tv).

      I love a good iconoclast as much as the next guy but jesus, am I really expected to discard the consensus opinion of the world’s climate scientists based on this lot?

      Nobody here is qualified to assess the data directly, so we all have to assess the conclusions of people and organizations based on their credibility. Nobody, nobody, nobody has brought more credibility to the table than the IPCC.

      For that matter, roughly 100% of the qualified (ie actual) scientists that I hear dissenting from the IPCC report are condemning it as too conservative (ie ignoring the unquantified positive feedback loop and only including linear CO2 increases).

      It’s pointless to get down in the weeds of the argument – Methane! Arctic ice! Sunspots! – because none of us can understand these things in context. For the love of god, half the deniers I’ve met point to their experience of local weather as proof that global warming is bunk.

      It’s human nature to cling to what you want to believe. I get that. And there are plenty of people (hello Senator Inhofe!) working overtime to tell the deniers what they want to hear. Just like there are “scientists” working overtime to produce sciencey-sounding “proof” that evolution is bunk. If people want badly enough to believe something, they’re not going to question the source of material that tells them what they want to hear.

      If the deniers want to convince the rest of us, find some real, credible scientists with real, credible arguments and have those arguments successfully peer-reviewed. Until then, you’re the climate equivalent of Intelligent Design Creationists.

      • sf

        There are plenty of credible scientists that you simply refuse to acknowledge. Instead you name the people who have thrown themselves into the media spotlight.

        Then you throw out the word consensus as if repeating that word will somehow make it reality. You ask for credible scientists who are peer-reviewed, and there are many such scientists, yet you claim that they do not exist. It’s really quite easy to find credible names, do a goodle search, then click on any link, and boom, you have a list: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002642.html

        But that would be too much trouble, wouldn’t it?

        The you claim the skeptics are loons, while at the same time half the people posting on these Maclean’s comment threads are skeptics.

        But really, the worst is that on the one hand you claim we are all too stupid to judge for ourselves. Then on the other hand, you claim that you yourself can judge whether a given scientist is credible. Make up your mind, stop contradicting yourself.

      • sf

        Sometimes I wonder why I bother doing this so often, the religionists simply want to believe that the worlds needs to be saved…

        http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=865DBE39-802A-23AD-4949-EE9098538277

        “The conference occurred just months after the release of a blockbuster U.S. Senate Minority Report featuring over 400 prominent scientists who recently disputed man-made global warming claims.”

        “Furthermore, a Canadian survey of scientists released on March 6, 2008 offered even more evidence that the alleged ‘consensus’ is non-existent. A canvass of more than 51,000 scientists with the Association of Professional Engineers, Geologists and Geophysicists of Alberta (APEGGA) found 68% of them disagree with the statement that ‘the debate on the scientific causes of recent climate change is settled.’” According to the survey, only 26% of scientists attributed global warming to “human activity like burning fossil fuels.””

        “The skeptical scientists at the conference presented diverse views on climate change, but generally they rallied around several key points. 1) The Earth is currently well within natural climate variability. 2) Almost all climate fear is generated by unproven computer model predictions. 3) An abundance of peer-reviewed studies continue to debunk rising CO2 fears and, 4) “Consensus” has been manufactured for political, not scientific purposes. ”

        ” A more recent indicator comes from the U.S.-based National Registry of Environmental Professionals, an accrediting organization whose 12,000 environmental practitioners have standing with U.S. government agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy. In a November, 2006, survey of its members, it found that only 59% think human activities are largely responsible for the warming that has occurred, and only 39% make their priority the curbing of carbon emissions.”

        -Geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook, an emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University
        -Atmospheric Physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh and a founding member of the American Society for Mass Spectrometry
        -Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Art V. Douglas, the recently retired Chair of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at Creighton University
        -environmental scientist professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder and director of the Numerical Weather Forecast group
        -Former UN Scientist Dr. Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute in Paris
        -UN IPCC scientist Vincent Gray of New Zealand
        -Canadian Climatologist Dr. Timothy Ball
        -Hurricane expert and Meteorologist Dr. William Gray
        -UK Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn
        -Atmospheric physicist Ferenc Miskolczi, formerly with NASA’s Langley Research Center
        -German Meteorologist Dr. Gerd-Rainer Weber
        -Physics Professor Emeritus Dr. Howard Hayden of the University of Connecticut
        -Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs
        -Richard Lindzen, professor of meteorology in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
        -Dr. Griffin is entitled to think for himself. Apart from his PhD in aerospace engineering, he holds five masters degrees, he is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and the International Academy of Astronautics, he manages a US$1.1-billion climate-research budget and was unanimously confirmed to head NASA by the United States Senate.

        It is SOOOOOO, SOOOOO, SOOOOOO easy to find a credible list of skeptics, yet people like you come along and claim they do not exist.

        • http://macleans.ca kc

          SF I appreciate you wanting to get yr pov over. But you do your case no service by continuing to put forward anything that someone like Inhofe has to say.

          • sf

            Like I said, if you don’t like that Inhofe guy, it’s easy to find a list anywhere! Inhofe did not invent these people! None of the people on that list have any connection to this Inhofe person. You can get lists like these all over the place.

            I could say the same thing about Senator Gore – I could say that every climate change believer ever mentioned by Gore is tainted (which includes every single prominent climate-change-believing scientist). You want me to find a page written by Gore in order to discredit all the people on the other side?

          • sf

            Geez, you believers are nuts. I put up a list with emeritus scientists and phds up the ying yang including the head of NASA, and you claim the list is invalid because of a particular US senator who knows that these people exist.

          • http://macleans.ca kc

            SF
            take a pill man! I didn’t say every one on the list is wrong or invalid. You make a gd pt about all the people associated with Gore being equally bogus. We’re agreed no guilt simply by association. As it happens i wouldn’t take anything Gore says on face value for the same reasons as Inhofe – they’re both politicians -enough said. But don’t try and pretend either that these guys are listed together and it’s somehow irrelevant that inhofe knows about them or cares. He’s a powerful individual and has an agenda, he’s not neutral. In fact he’s been accused of exaggerations and outright fabrications. I know, you’ll say, so’s Gore. Well then i’ll make up my own mind.
            ps. maybe i implied that everyone on that list is tainted, without evidence i shouldn’t. If i was a scientist in this field i’d be wary of either of those two gentlemen.

        • http://darklydreamingdavid.wordpress.com DAVE ID

          The APEGGA is a TRADE Association from ALBERTA who have NO INTERESTS in OIL SANDS whatsoever? No Agenda? Right.

          The consensus on Global Warming is worldwide, your 20-something long list is hardly ying-yang. The only scientists who disagree are often motivated by financial reasons.

          At the very beginning of industrialization scientists stated that increased CO2 would be damaging to the environment. and that was in the 19th century. Thanks to lobbying, the issue is always put on the back-burner.

        • TJ Cook

          You keep using that word “skeptic”. It doesn’t mean what you seem to think it means.

          A skeptic would have invested ten seconds checking his own sources – even if they tell him what he wants to hear – and discovered that Senator Inhofe’s work has been exposed as a transparent fraud. I went through this in detail in a previous Macleans blog conversation. You were there, sf, I debunked this specific report right in front of you.

          A skeptic would never ask me to discard the IPCC based on a list of sciency-sounding quotes stripped of all context. This tactic was invented by the Intelligent Design Creationists, the theory that if you hurl enough bullshit, your “opponents” won’t be able to scrape it off as fast as you throw it, so the uneducated will think it’s sticking for a reason.

          You’re a perfect example of the people I was talking about – you gobble up the material that tells you what you want to hear without questioning it.

          Show me something as credible as the IPCC and we’ll talk.

          Oh, and honestly, please lay off the playground trash talk. Grow the hell up.

  • Wayne

    It is good to see and read about those who are a little saner than the average the world is ending and it’s all our fault crowd. Of course our actions have consequences however it is proven time and time and time and time again that if there is one trait us humans have that other mammals don’t is ‘ Hubris ‘ our planet is homestatic and mother nature has her own agenda and more often than not is all too ready to point this out to us if only we take the time and energy to pay attention – they key is to adapt and pass on our successful adaptation traits to the next generation. This human knee jerk reaction to end of the world scenarios is invariably proven to be non productive and more often than not creates more problems than it ever solves.

  • http://darklydreamingdavid.wordpress.com DAVE ID

    Hmmmm I think with the present population a decrease in 1.4% could be disastrous, considering the hundreds of millions of people that go without water daily. 1.4% Sounds small on paper but how many TONS does that represent? How many unfed people does that realistically represent?

    The skeptics always fall back on natural phenomena. Like we are stupid and don’t know it happens in parallel with the impact of human activity. They are attempting to distract from the reality that is we are causing change to the ecosystem.

    • darcymeyers

      “I think with the present population a decrease in 1.4% could be disastrous, considering the hundreds of millions of people that go without water daily. 1.4% Sounds small on paper but how many TONS does that represent? How many unfed people does that realistically represent?”
      —–
      Which are we more morally obliged to help;
      the future unfed or,
      the present day millions without water?

      • http://darklydreamingdavid.wordpress.com DAVE ID

        Both.

        If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.

  • Oh Boy

    The Copenhagen Consensus Center, Mr. Lobmborg’s organization, is co-sponsored by a single centre-right government and The Economist magazine, with the express hope of finding market-based solutions for the world’s problems. He is also a faculty member at a business school. Not surprisingly, with these bona fides, Lomborg prefers market-based solutions to environmental challenges.

    Also, it should be pointed out that Mr. Lomborg is a political scientist and statistician, not a climate scientist. He has been criticized in the past for misrepresenting the positions of climate scientists and for using data from non-peer-reviewed publications.

    He is a public intellectual — and an intriguing one. He puts forward provocative ideas and we should debate them.

    He is not, however, a credible source of scientific information.

    • Critical Reasoning

      I don’t think that anyone who reads Lomborg’s work is under the impression that he is a climate change scientist. He is a superbly rational pragmatist who looks for common sense solutions. Because we have a market-based economy, it makes sense to look for market-based solutions.

  • oompus boompus

    5) Any new money confiscated and redistributed in the name of ameliorating climate change would be wasted on corrupt and ruinous boondoggles anyways.

    • Critical Reasoning

      I assume you’re talking about the Green Shift? The stupidest public policy initiative at least a decade?

      Carbon tax schemes work well in theory, but the Green Shift was poorly conceived and poorly planned. Sacrificing common sense for political expediency, a small clique in the Liberal Party attemped to twist the Green Shift into some kind of economic panacea, capable of funding income tax cuts and new social programs.

      The viability of these plans depended on assumptions of robust economic growth, so it’s ironic that it was proposed just as the world was teetering on the abyss of a massive recession.

  • wayne moores

    It seems to me the latest economic melt down, thousands of factories shutting down, millions of people out of work should reduce our carbon footprint quite nicely. Same way they reduced their carbon footprint in Russia when the roof fell in there and millions were left freezing in the dark. For sure it will work a lot better than green shift, carbon tax, cap and trade three card monty schemes. Hope you enjoy our new and wonderful reduced carbon footprint. Wonder if Big Al will even notice the misery about to be visited on all the “little people” who don’t own a carbon credit ponzi scheme like he does.

  • kody

    sf,

    you are wasting your time.

    The secular left needs a religion and they have found it.

    To them you are committing blasphemy.

    • http://darklydreamingdavid.wordpress.com DAVE ID

      That’s all it is to you? You are on one side and the side you are on decides for you how to rationalize? There’s the left and there’s the right. Pick a side and fight it out? A lot of thinking went into that one, but then seems the thinking is done for you.

      • Ti-Guy

        Hey, go easy on my little Kody. I’ve invested so much in his welfare, I’m claiming him as an adult dependant on my tax return.

  • sf

    Another fact for “the debate is over” crowd and the “skeptics are loons” crowd.

    At December’s U.N. Global Warming conference in Poznan, Poland, 650 of the world’s top climatologists stood up and said man-made global warming is a media generated myth without basis. Said climatologist Dr. David Gee, Chairman of the International Geological Congress, “For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming?”

    • madeyoulook

      Fear not, Dr. Gee and sf. It’s now called “climate change.” We will thank you for refraining from the obvious juvenile retort that the climate is always changing.

    • T. Thwim

      Good grief, this is another flogging of that same US Minority Senate report being flogged by Inhofe, the one where a number of the scientists being quoted have since said that he took their remarks out of context and that they do not dispute AGW at all, but rather are simply arguing the specific results that other scientists are postulating.

      What’s funny, is while new evidence continues to accumulate demonstrating AGW and the dangers thereof, the inactivists and skeptics have to constantly re-dress the same bunk and try to parade it around again as something original.

  • Ken

    To save the world, there seem to be 2 camps; the “Cap& Trade” promoters like Al Gore and the “Reduce Consumption/Control Population” promoters like Dave Suzuki. Governments do not stand to earn money from the ‘reduce consumption’ idea so you don’t hear politicians talk about that one much, they’re not lining up on the side of poor ol’ Suzuki. But governments stand to earn Billions from Cap& Trade, and so governments are big Cap&Trade believers, they talk it up and they love Al Gore.

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