Global Warming is Irreversible, study suggests

Climate change is essentially irreversible, according to a sobering study from the National Oceanic…

by Alex Shimo on Thursday, January 29, 2009 6:28pm - 41 Comments

Climate change is essentially irreversible, according to a sobering study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Once the ocean has heated up, it will warm the planet for thousands of years, according to lead author Susan Solomon. If carbon dioxide is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million, it will take millenia for the excess CO2 to dissipate, according to Solomon, with NOAA. The current level of carbon dioxide is 385 parts per million. Currently the oceans are absorbing the excess heat and carbon dioxide, but they will reach a saturation point, according to the study.

Ms. Soloman says the permanence of the predicted changes is not a reason to do very little, but a reason to take immediate action right now.

“If it’s irreversible, it seems all the more reason to do something about it,” she told NPR.

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  • Jarrid

    More AGW tripe based on speculation and conjecture and an absolute dearth of evidence.

    • Northern PoV

      did you even look at the link Mr. Jarrid?

      Why bother eh? Cause it is from that bastion of commies & climate-change radicals:
      National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration …
      part of the US Dept. of Commerce

      • Jarrid

        You mean the same National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that reported that October in the US was marked by 63 record snowfalls and 115 lowest-ever temperatures?

        And which will soon be confirming what we all know, that this has been one of the coldest winters in recent memory.

        • Ti-Guy

          You mean the same National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that reported that October in the US was marked by 63 record snowfalls and 115 lowest-ever temperatures?

          Oh, stop lying, Jarrid. It’s becoming embarrassing.

          • Jarrid

            You know Ti-guy you really must diversify your information sources, I know they probably didn’t report this on CBC or print it in the Toronto Star and the other left-wing media that makes up your sheltered world.

            Ti-guy exemplifies the left’s way of thinking: facts that don’t fit the wacky theory they want to foist on reality are “lies”, people who don’t buy into the nutty theories are deniers. The facts I referred to above were reported last week in the Australian media, an excerpt of which follows

            “Facts debunk global warming alarmism Bob Carter | January 20, 2009

            Article from: The Australian

            THE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that October in the US was marked by 63 record snowfalls and 115 lowest-ever temperatures.

            Over the past few years, similar signs of colder than usual weather have been recorded all over the world, causing many people to question the still fashionable, but now long outdated, global warming alarmism.”

          • Ti-Guy

            No children on the Internet after 8:00 PM.

          • Jarrid

            Great comeback Ti-guy. Actually maybe you should go back and listen to your womb-like CBC before you get a stroke from being forced to look at reality in the face.

  • Daryl

    Yawn….
    Global warming is real…we will all suffer…act now…before its late.
    Spend trillions…take away freedoms
    How many ways can this be said and repeated?

    • Ti-Guy

      “It’s better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt. ”

      Of course, it’s pointless to even point that out, because that bit of common sense is lost on people like Daryl and Jarrid.

      Hmm…”Hi, I’m Jarrid…this is my brother Daryl and this is my other brother Daryl.”

  • http://prairiewrangler.wordpress.com/ Olaf

    I’m kind of relieved, in a way. It’s kind of like after you bomb a test, but there’s nothing you can do about it anymore. Plus, now I can go back to burning my garbage in the fireplace, which was always easier than taking it out to the bin.

    • http://macleans.ca kc

      I really should report you to a moderator you know?

  • Jarrid

    Oh, and Northern PoV,” there are two fundamentally different ways in which computers can be used to project climate. The first is used by the modelling groups that provide climate projections to the IPCC. These groups deploy general circulation models, which use complex partial differential equations to describe the ocean-atmosphere climate system mathematically. When fed with appropriate initial data, these models can calculate possible future climate states. The models presume (wrongly) that we have a complete understanding of the climate system.

    GCMs are subject to the well-known computer phenomenon of GIGO, which translates as “garbage in, God’s-truth out”.:

    You should all have a look at Climat Debate Daily which shows that there is no consensus on AGW. It’s got a great compilation of articles on both sides of the issue.

    Alexandra may have lumped her lot with the AGW crowd if the nature of her posts is any indication and AGW is currently fashionable in certain circles including government circles but the research and science on this is far from settled.

    • Ti-Guy

      “there are two fundamentally different ways in which computers can be used to project climate. The first is used by the modelling groups that provide climate projections to the IPCC. These groups deploy general circulation models, which use complex partial differential equations to describe the ocean-atmosphere climate system mathematically. When fed with appropriate initial data, these models can calculate possible future climate states. The models presume (wrongly) that we have a complete understanding of the climate system.

      GCMs are subject to the well-known computer phenomenon of GIGO, which translates as “garbage in, God’s-truth out”.:”

      Do you even know what this cut ‘n paste means?

      When my 13-year old daughter was caught plagiarising like this, she had to either re-submit or accept a failing grade. Would that your parents were as conservative.

      • Jarrid

        It’s a quote from the same source that I quoted above and you can find the artilce on the website “Climate Debate Daily”. Google it Ti-guy, switch the dial off CBC and find out what’s really going on in the real world as opposed to the cloister-like left-wing media organs.

        • Ti-Guy

          Google it Ti-guy

          I already did. That’s how I discovered your (minor) plagiarism. Now, do you care to explain what it means? You know, to stupid moonbats like me who don’t understand science?

          No? Thought so.

          • Jarrid

            “stupid moonbats like me”

            Self-awareness is the beginning of wisdom. There’s hope for you yet.

  • sf

    One more worthless study because it is based on computer models.

    • madeyoulook

      What? You mean all the email I get on my computer modelling a larger member that’ll “make her scream” is worthless? Why, just yesterday I set up this fantastic Nigerian financing plan so I could afford the neighbours-will-call-the-cops-because-of-the-noise package.

      NOW you tell me computer models are worthless…

      • sf

        You’ve just had bad luck. They’re not all worthless. Just the ones claiming to know what the world will be like 5000 years from now based on the results of a buggy computer program.

        Lots of models are really great.

        All my friends got rich helping out downtrodden Nigerians move their well-earned inheritances into international bank accounts. Just send me your bank account number and a copy of your signature and I’ll hook you up with a trusty Nigerian.

      • sf

        In fact, with Wall street bankers and financiers as trustworthy as they are today, those Nigerian emails look more trustworthy, in comparison, than they used to.

  • John

    OH MY GOD OH MY GOD OH MY GOD

  • madeyoulook

    “If it’s irreversible, it seems all the more reason to do something about it,” she told NPR.

    Weird. Usually I go about only trying to reverse what is actually reversible.

    • Ian

      If you read the article what she meant was essentially: “If we get past the point of no return, which is very close to where we are now, then it will be irreversible. So it seems all the more reason to do something about it.”

      Thus, it’s reversible now but soon it will not be and maybe we should do something before we get to that point.

      • sf

        It’s funny how heating is irreversible and cooling is not. That’s science for you, full of surprises.

        It seems to be the exact opposite of one of the central tenets of thermodynamics, that bodies tend towards minimum enthalpy (ie heating is never irreversible).

        Just the fact that the words irreversible and permanence appear in this study (do they really?) show what garbage the study happens to be.

  • http://unambig.wordpress.com Raphael Alexander

    You know what I like best about global warming? I like how cold it was this year. I like how we had record cold temperatures across Canada and Europe, and that it snowed for the first time in history in some places in the Middle East.

    That’s what I love the most about global warming.

    • Ti-Guy

      like how we had record cold temperatures across Canada and Europe,

      What record cold temperatures?

      Stop lying, you fraud.

      • Jarrid

        Ti-guy and the AGW crowd: please facts and reality go away you’re getting in the way of my cherished unproved theory.

        Yup, that nasty -40 on and off windchill we’ve been experienciing in my neck of the woods is all a big fat lie. That ever-increasing snow wall on both sides of my driveway: a mere mirage. Those media reports of cold-related deaths, a CIA conspiracy.

        If the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports something in favour of my AGW theory it’s the gospel truth, if they report that “October in the US was marked by 63 record snowfalls and 115 lowest-ever temperatures” it’s a big fat lie.

        You’d have a better chance converting a door-knocking Jehovah’s Witness to your faith than getting Ti-guy and his fellow AGW cultists to see the gaping holes in their Mother Earth Armageddon crusade.

        • Patrick

          you don’t understand… the coldest year since the year 2000 or so means nothing. Just cuz you had to shovel more snow off your driveway this year then the one before is completely irrelevant to the trend of warmer temperatures starting and raising abruptly since the 80s and 90s

          • http://unambig.wordpress.com Raphael Alexander

            Completely irrelevant to your preconceived notions, you mean.

  • http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

    Alexandra

    Why do you focus only on those studies that say AGW is happening while completely ignoring people who disagree? Do you consider yourself a journalist or a propagandist? How come you don’t find it curious how unscientific the models used by global warming ‘scientists’ are?

    In the past couple of weeks:

    A recent study by Prof Eric Steig, and the discredited Dr M Mann, on how the Antarctic was warming, despite sea ice coverage being 30% above average last year. Steig’s computer model, through a formula not revealed, was set up to estimate the data that weather stations would have recorded if they had existed. Even AGW fans had a problem with this study: Dr Kevin Trenberth, member of IPPC, said “”it is hard to make data where none exists”.
    ——————-
    NASA atmospheric scientist Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, wrote “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” Theon explained. “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists.”
    ————————-
    Dr J. Scott Armstrong, an expert on forecasting, wrote “Currently, the only forecasts are those based on the opinions of some scientists. Computer modeling was used to create scenarios (i.e., stories) to represent the scientists’ opinions about what might happen. The models were not intended as forecasting models (Trenberth 2007) and they have not been validated for that purpose. Since the publication of our paper, no one has provided evidence to refute our claim that there are no scientific forecasts to support global warming. We conducted an audit of the procedures described in the IPCC report and found that they clearly violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting.”

    • J@ck M!tchell

      Also, bring on the 9/11 Truthers. Some balance, please. And don’t forget Roswell.

      • http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

        Not one of the people I have listed are anywhere near being a 9/11 Truther, Jack M.

        But you are right, some balance would be nice instead of what we get now where pro-AGW propaganda is shoved down our throats all the time but anti-AGW science is entirely ignored and we all have to pretend it doesn’t exist.

        • Ti-Guy

          but anti-AGW science is entirely ignored and we all have to pretend it doesn’t exist.

          If only. The colourful loonies who are at the forefront of taking the slightest evidence that AGW isn’t happening and running around wearing it like a pair of underwear on their heads are simply cannot be ignored.

        • J@ck M!tchell

          What do you care, jwl? Either your great-grandchildren will be moving to higher ground & putting on lots of sunscreen, or they won’t. It’s one thing to get all panicky about global warming, but it’s even sillier to get all panicky about people getting all panicky about global warming. Pick some other issue, this just makes you look like a nutcase.

          • http://macleans.ca kc

            Actually i think it’s better to go back to th oceans. I’m doubling up on my daughter’s swimming lessons, but am having a little difficulty with the gill thingies. Still, that’ll come i’m sure!

  • Jarrid

    jwl – good question, instead Alexandra links to NPR, as close to the CBC as you can get in the States. The related stories to her linked NPR article all point to dire AGW alarmism:

    “Study Busts Antarctica’s Chill On Global Warming

    Trees Dying In The Western U.S.

    Climate Changing Walden Pond’s Flowers

    Study: Global Coral Crisis Is In Full Bloom”

    Alexandra suffers from the same disease as Ti-guy: highly selective source reliance syndrome.

    It’s a disease running rampant on the left of the political spectrum. Some would say it’s endemic.

    • Patrick

      this has nothing to do with the political spectrum. many conservatives and other right-wingers care about the fate and health of our earth.

  • Ti-Guy

    Alexandra suffers from the same disease as Ti-guy: highly selective source reliance syndrome.

    That’s not it at all. I’m suffering psychological discombobulation at the thought that we, as a society, are producing scientific illiterates who are convinced they’re experts in science.

    When it comes to global warming, I’m highly and healthily skeptical (even if it is a dire as some predict, I’m not even that worried). But it’s mighty interesting to note that the deniers are as loony as, or loonier than, the 9/11 Truthers.

    If you want to persuade people that AGW isn’t happening, Jarrid, the best thing you could do is to stop talking about it and copying and pasting things you don’t even understand.

  • Bill Simpson

    There is a lot in common between economists and meteorologists sometimes. Despite their inability to predict anything reliable from one moment to the next, we continue to imagine that we should arrange our whole lives around their prognostications.

    None of the predictions so far made about global warming have so far played out. If it is hot,it’s global warming, if it’s cold its global warming, if it’s a flood it’s global warming, if it’s a drought it’s global warming. If they could not predict today’s weather patterns 10 years ago, why should we believe them about weather patterns 100 years from now.

    Just like economists, they have a host of reasons why things are as they are, and why their predictions were not accurate, but all that makes them is experts in hindsight.

    And as for “irreversible”, what on earth does that mean in a scientific sense? And “millenia for the excess to dissipate”…is that 1,000 years or 1,000,000 years? Is this science?

    • Patrick

      “None of the predictions so far made about global warming have so far played out.”

      Other than raising sea levels
      Other than more erratic weather conditions (such as hurricanes, tropical storms, blizzards, droughts, etc.)
      Other than retreating ice caps

      oh and by following the rest of the logic on this board… I burnt this past summer, my shoulders got all red and lobster-like… didn’t happen last year, therefore, it must be getting warmer!

  • nathan

    hi

From Macleans