Another front-burner issue is the Middle East, thanks to the crisis in Gaza. On Jan. 26, Clinton sent a second envoy, George Mitchell, to the region. Mitchell is a former senator and diplomat credited with arranging the peace accord in Northern Ireland during the Clinton administration. Mitchell’s trip took him to Europe, Egypt, Israel, the West Bank, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Among Mitchell’s goals was to hammer the strained ceasefire in Gaza into something more permanent, to help prevent Hamas from using smuggling tunnels to rearm, and to provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in Gaza. Oh . . . and reinvigorate the peace process. It’s been a slow start. Mitchell did call for the border crossings to Gaza to be reopened to allow the free flow of goods, but the Israelis have so far refused.
“What I’ve told him is start by listening,” Obama said on Al Arabiya. “All too often the U.S. starts by dictating—in the past on some of these issues—and we don’t always know all the factors that are involved. So let’s listen. He’s going to be speaking to all the major parties involved. And he will then report back to me. From there we will formulate a specific response.”
The envoy is, at the very least, a world-class listener. “I know George well and my sense is that the quality he brought to the Northern Ireland conversation is clearly one he’ll bring to this situation,” says Barton. “He is a true American statesman and has a high level of patience. He indulges people their favourite arguments until they start to be embarrassed by their own behaviour—and there is a lot of opportunity for that in this one, too. They look around and realize the most important guy in the room is the one that is not talking.”
But one group Mitchell won’t be listening to is Hamas. At her confirmation hearing, Clinton ruled out direct talks with Hamas until the group renounces violence. (Egypt is brokering indirect talks between Hamas and Israel.) “When it comes to non-state actors like Hamas, there are conditions,” she said. “Hamas must renounce violence. They must recognize Israel, and they must agree to abide by all previous agreements. There are conditions that are usually part of the preliminary discussion that would lead to any kind of negotiation.”
Clinton’s staunch support of Israel in the U.S. Senate and during her campaign may enhance her currency with Israelis, while Obama’s appeal to Arab public opinion could grab attention there. But Mitchell’s task remains a daunting one. There are two Palestinian rivals for power—the Palestinian Authority of the West Bank led by Fatah and President Mahmoud Abbas, who is recognized by the U.S. and Israel, and Hamas in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel is preparing for an election on Feb. 10, resulting in a power vacuum now and the potential for a change in government that could further complicate matters. And on key issues, from borders to refugees to control of Jerusalem, Israelis and Palestinians remain far apart.
“We are nowhere,” says Aaron Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator and author of The Much Too Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace. “Israel has no decision-maker for the next weeks and there is a dysfunctional Palestinian house with two armies, two polities, and two negotiating positions.” Add to that other elements, such as needing the Egyptians to take a lead role in a permanent ceasefire, and Mitchell is facing “a lot of moving pieces—none of which will be bolted down for some months,” says Miller, now a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, a foreign policy think tank in Washington. “We are at the beginning of a long movie.”
Another pressing issue facing Clinton is how to deal with Iran, which continues on its nuclear trajectory. Obama elaborated on a theme from his inaugural address, telling Al Arabiya, “If countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” Clinton quickly let it be known that the first move was up to Tehran. “There is a clear opportunity for the Iranians, as the President expressed in his interview, to demonstrate some willingness to engage meaningfully with the international community,” Clinton told reporters. “Whether or not that hand becomes less clenched is really up to them.”
