Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

HILARIOUSLY UPDATED: Your Monday Af-Pak briefing: No quiet on the Durand front

by Paul Wells on Monday, February 16, 2009 9:44am - 19 Comments

It was a busy weekend on the Afghanistan/Pakistan file. First, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari told 60 Minutes what a lot of people in Western capitals have been eager to hear: Not that the Taliban pose an existential threat to the survival of the Pakistan state—lots of folks already knew that—but that Zardari gets it. Here’s the video:

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Much of the 60 Minutes report deals with the Swat Valley, northwest of Islamabad. On a whirlwind trip through the region, U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke told the Indians that what happens in Swat is as dangerous to India as it is to Pakistan, Afghanistan or the U.S. (Holbrooke is also eagerly messaging to Iran during this trip.)

Visits from high-level U.S. envoys are news wherever they happen; in Pakistan, visits from U.S. drone-mounted heavy ordinance are becoming closer to routine.

In Munich, Holbrooke leaned heavily on the Obama administration’s new emphasis on treating Afghanistan and Pakistan as  a single regional problem. Hence his own mandate. And now, key U.S. allies are following suit: The UK and Germany have both named a single contact person for Holbrooke with responsibility for the whole region. “I assume that other European countries will do the same,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s foreign minister, tells Reuters.

And what of Canada? Last autumn I heard that Canadian officials, including our ambassador to Kabul and our high commissioner to Islamabad, are working more closely together. Will Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon be naming an Af-Pak interlocutor? Did you sigh, as I did, at the sight of the phrase “Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon”?

Here I’m going to open up a brief digression. I’ll tell you one guy who doesn’t care what Canada does: Frank-Walter Steinmeier. In German politics the foreign minister is normally considered the Number 2 person in government after the Chancellor. And in a coalition, the foreign minister is normally the leader of the opposition. So Steinmeier will be leading the Socialist Democrats when he runs for Chancellor against Angela Merkel this autumn. So Steinmeier could be Chancellor of Germany before the end of the year. Two weeks ago he became the second foreign minister to meet Hillary Clinton in Washington. He made no inquiries about whether he could stop in Ottawa on the way there or back, as foreign dignitaries once routinely did. Ottawa is a handy place to tackle jet lag, frankly, and while you’re there you can chat with a government that understands U.S. files better than most.

But a year ago, Frank-Walter Steinmeier put in a telephone call to Canada’s foreign minister, who at the time — and here you need to check your calendar because these things change quickly — was David Emerson. So here’s Germany’s foreign minister on the line, waiting waiting waiting, and the receptionist comes back with, “Minister Emerson is a bit busy at the moment, sir.” Well, Steinmeier says, when won’t he be busy? Pause. “Minister Emerson doesn’t like talking to other foreign ministers on the telephone.” So that’s why Germany’s foreign minister doesn’t much care what happens in Canada now.

Where was I? Ah yes, Holbrooke. The Globe had a fascinating piece on the weekend by a former U.S. diplomat, Thomas Schweich, who is no fan of Holbrooke’s. I’ve read critiques of Schweich’s earlier sorties on assorted U.S. blogs, so I’m not sure what to make of every detail of his op-ed. But much of Schweich’s critique of the “convoluted hierarchy” Obama has erected to handle foreign policy, and especially the Afghanistan war, is well taken. His point is that throwing bodies at a problem is not only not-a-solution, it can hinder a solution if lines of authority aren’t clear and everyone spends precious time infighting. It’s clear that Obama wants to get Afghanistan — sorry, Afghanistan-and-Pakistan — right, but will is not a solution. Paul Martin wanted to improve relations with the Bush administration, and for a few weeks, Canada-U.S. offices and mandates and committees and special representatives were sprouting like mushrooms in Ottawa and Washington. A cautionary tale.

As is this video a Guardian reporter shot while embedded with U.S. troops in one thoroughly nasty corner of Afghanistan. Harrowing stuff, especially in the last minute of the video.

UPDATE: Here’s your chance to debate whether Obama is showing careful deliberation, or dithering. He’s taking much longer to decide on the scale of a supplementary U.S. deployment on Afghanistan than some of his own military commanders expected. This latest Politico story is consistent with something Joe Klein reported a few weeks back: “Asked about the persistent reports from the Pentagon that up to 30,000 more troops are scheduled for Afghanistan, a senior Obama aide said, ‘No — repeat, no — decision has been made about troop levels in Afghanistan, and anyone at the Pentagon who says otherwise should be fired.’” The second half of that sentence is what makes this a very interesting quote.

UPDATE: And now that David Emerson has more time on his hands, he’s discovered that Canada is “less visible” in world affairs than it used to be. Hey thanks, Einstein!

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  • Jenn

    The rest of your policy-heavy post will take time to digest, but the part I understand is shocking to me.

    Surely you jest that the receptionist for any Canadian foreign minister would come out with “he doesn’t like speaking to other foreign ministers on the phone.” Even if true, there is no more tactful way to handle it?

    And the one giving this receptionist the order not to disturb him with foreign minister riff-raff–Emerson? Isn’t he the guy that ran for the Liberals, then immediately switched sides so the country could benefit from his vast knowledge and experience in cabinet? That Emerson?

    Okay, let me put this another way. Is there a story in Canadian politics that ISN’T one big , unfunny joke from beginning to end?

  • Mulletaur

    Quoting from the 60 minutes piece : “Now, Pakistan is facing a monster it helped create, and has been forced to act.”

    That’s the most hilarious piece of (what I assume to be) unintentional irony that I’ve seen in a long time.

  • http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

    I can look at photos of afghanis for hours, they are evocative and all seem to have a thousand yard stare.

    Not sure why we are supposed to be vexed that foreign dignitaries no longer use Canada as a way-station while preparing for the main event, US meetings. Does it really matter that Germany’s foreign affairs minister no longer visits and wastes our minister’s time?

    And, so far, I am willing to give Obama some slack about his delaying a decision on what to do about Af-Pak. He has his hands full trying to get stimulus bill passed but he’s going to have to start looking after foreign affairs soon, which is supposed to be his main focus. However, as Obama said, the president needs to be able to focus on more than one thing at a time so he better start making decisions soon or else people are going to start wondering if his love of voting ‘present’ is hindering his ability to make decisions.

    • Paul Wells

      The best way to make sure nobody wastes our foreign minister’s time, I suppose, is not to have one. And with his latest selection, Stephen Harper has come tantalizingly close to that goal.

      • Critical Reasoning

        Did you hear the Steinmeier story in Munich, Paul? You should give that story a wider audience by putting it in your print column. It’s absolutely embarrassing. Someone needs to be fired – the receptionist, at the very least. It seems like we are taking a minimalist – that is to say, minimally competent – approach to foreign affairs. Cannon must go.

        • Jenn

          Gotta jump in here to the defence of a fellow receptionist (even though I think a more tactful way of saying it must exist, it frankly escapes me at the moment, and I’ve had longer to think about it than she did.)

          Why is it a receptionist’s responsibility to lie for her employer? What other job in existence (other than, possibly an MP, and my don’t we get upset about it) includes as its job description “you must be honest and trustworthy–except when we tell you to lie, in which case that is acceptable.” Do you want an honest employee or don’t you? And since receptionist is rarely a person’s only area of responsibility, do be careful of what you wish for.

          • Critical Reasoning

            Well, we can’t exactly punish Emerson, so the next best thing is to take a closer look at the receptionist and her immediate superior(s).

            After all, it was the receptionist who gave the German Foreign Minister the iciest reception since the days of Von Ribbentrop.

        • Derek Pearce

          What difference would it make if Cannon went– to be replaced by….? I think the underlying lesson from this is that Emerson was too scared to take a phone call from Steinmeier without Harper’s permission and direction. Either Harper should take on the role of Foreign Minister himself or let somebody have a normal degree of latitude to do their job. But the former isn’t possible, as the PM is too busy doing every minister’s job while keeping tabs on them to focus on one single Ministry.

          • Kenneth

            Bingo

  • Sisyphus

    I read a report recently that the Taliban had declared a 10 day cease-fire in Swat.

    I’m sure everybody feels better already.

    Scott Taylor’s latest:

    http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/1106807.html

  • Mike G

    It is increasingly frustrating to see the growing chasm between Canada’s foreign policy potential and what we actually get done on the world stage.

  • Anon

    And remember, Paul — David Emerson was considered the most competent of all of Harper’s ministers.

    I wonder if Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s role as the leader of the left-of-centre German party may have something to do with Emerson’s reluctance.

    But then again, it’s hard to believe anybody can be that daft as to tell his receptionist to inform another G7 foreign minister that he does not like speaking to Foreign Ministers on the phone. Maybe this receptionist was a holdover from the Bernier era?

  • Jenn

    “and avoid the “dangerous” trend of letting leaders be dominated by tiny groups of partisan advisers.”
    like, say, fr’instance, Harper?

    Oh, my. It’s becoming a funny joke, after all!

  • http://macleans.ca kc

    What is it with some of our elite business community? I see Emerson still doesn’t get why his constituents were so incensed over his defection. He seems to feel that respect is simply his due, rather than something he has to earn just like any other individual. If Emerson was the best they had, and was indeed responsible for the telephone fiasco, then we are in trouble. Emerson while comptent in some regards is a good illustration of why high-powered businessmen often fail to make the grade in politics.

  • Sage

    It was well known that Emerson avoided meetings with anyone like the plague.

  • Sceptical

    Paul,

    I find that tale about the German foreign Minister a little bit too tall. So the German Foreign Minister just up and called the Minister’s general office number at DFAIT? What, did he find it when he was looking up Emerson on GEDS?

  • Mulletaur

    Does Zardari really get it ? Didn’t he just hand over Swat to the Taliban ?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7891955.stm

    Allowing the Taliban to impose Sharia law in Swat in exchange for laying down their arms, supposedly “permanently”, doesn’t sound like a very smart move to me. Sounds more like surrender …

  • matt

    there is a theory that the best way to get people opposed to sharia law is to give them a taste of sharia law. no pants touching the ground and no tomoatoes next to the cucumbers or else, etc. etc. In what one hopes is rather short order the residents of the swat valley will look upon a hopeless and hopelessly corrupt secular administraation as some form of nirvana compared to the on the ground implementation of the diktats of a 1600 year old holy book

  • Mulletaur

    Nice idea, Matt – problem is that the Taliban have already been imposing their version of Sharia in that region of Pakistan for some time. Destroying schools for girls and beheading people that don’t have their strict idea of Islamic morality, that sort of thing. Once the Taliban rule an area, nobody is going to try to oppose them – the fear is too great. They are simply fascists. They must be totally routed.

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