Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

FWIW (ii)

by Paul Wells on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 11:14pm - 57 Comments

David Dodge’s c.v. (emphases added):

Mr. Dodge, appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 1 February 2001 for a term of seven years, retired on 31 January 2008. As Governor, he was Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank.

A native of Toronto, Mr. Dodge received a bachelor’s degree (honours) in economics from Queen’s University, and a PhD in economics from Princeton (1972).

During his academic career, he served as Assistant Professor of Economics at Queen’s University; Associate Professor of Canadian Studies and International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Senior Fellow in the Faculty of Commerce at the University of British Columbia; and Visiting Professor in the Department of Economics at Simon Fraser University. He also served as Director of the International Economics Program of the Institute for Research on Public Policy.

During a distinguished career in the federal public service, Mr. Dodge held senior positions in the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the Anti-Inflation Board, and the Department of Employment and Immigration. After serving in a number of increasingly senior positions at the Department of Finance, including that of G-7 Deputy, Mr. Dodge was appointed Deputy Minister of Finance in 1992. In that role, he served as a member of the Bank’s Board of Directors until 1997.

In 1998, Mr. Dodge was appointed Deputy Minister of Health, a position he held until his appointment as Governor of the Bank of Canada.

Tags: bloody elitist ankle-biters, David Dodge

More by Paul Wells

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

What’s that old joke about not having more than two Governors of the Bank of Canada at a dinner party?

madeyoulook

(in best possible straight man voice)
I don’t know Jack, what is that old joke about not having more than two Governors of the Bank of Canada at a dinner party?

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

Aw, MYL, now I have to think of one. Will you take a cheque?

I just remember being told very firmly by my parents that one economist at a dinner party was fine, two was dangerous, and three was asking for catastrophe.

James Connors

Because, according to George Bernard Shaw, “If all the economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.”

Critical Reasoning

Probably because they’re unfamiliar with being laid end to end… or being laid any other way, for that matter.

Wotcher?

Not to worry. I don’t think there’s more than one economist at this dinner party.

sf

Are we gonna believe Bernanke or Dodge? I guess my point is that there’s a Nobel prize-winning professor emeritus somewhere out there for every position one may wish to take in economics. Even Einstein was wrong once in a while.

Personally, I’m skeptical Dodge is right, although I think he is a very strong economist and he is probably correct about the overly optimistic budget predictions, but I’m more skeptical that Bernanke has the slightest idea what he is doing.

Jenn

Wow, hey sf, I agree with you on something! I think Bernanke, at this point, is the guy you listen to very carefully in order to do exactly the opposite of what he recommends. I think somewhere between Carney and Dodge is probably the more correct view, but I’m not betting anything on it.

Paul Wells

And Truman said what he needed most was a one-handed economist, because he was tired of hearing “on the other hand…”

I was just a little surprised to hear a prime minister who spent the campaign calling himself an economist at every stop showing such little regard for an obviously more qualified economist. Apparently an MA is precisely the right amount of economic training, but if you overdo it you strain your brain muscle. It’s a bit like walking on a hard sidewalk that way.

Andrew (not Potter or Coyne)

I thought that caused evolution.
madeyoulook

Mr. Harper, I refer you back to yesterday’s memo, explaining why Goodyear must be shuffled sooner, not later. All your science guy is good for now is mockery. What are you waiting for?

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

MYL, we just got a new toy and you want to take it away? What, were we bad?

madeyoulook

Well, actually…

There has been more than a little mockery that seemed to smugly and shamelessly adopt bigotry towards a man’s religious beliefs. I submit that it is unwise to let this go on too long. He can legitimately be turfed for incompetence. Let it come to pass soon, before the fact he has scripture read to and interpreted for him on Sunday mornings becomes the bigger issue. Please.

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

But, MYL, it’s my religious belief that Goodyear’s religious beliefs are nonsense. Are you impugning my religious belief? Have you no shame, sir?
madeyoulook

Take note, Mr. Harper. The fundamentalists are starting to get ugly about this. Take Jack’s toy away, please.
Dot

Charlie McCarthy was no dummy.
archangel

“Charlie McCarthy was no dummy.”

But he had a wooden personality.
dan in van

Well, if Harper is entrenched behind his ministers despite some pretty damning evidence, ie Ritz, Bernier (before the public embarrassment), O’Connor, and Flaherty (hey, i dare you to invest in our biggest province! It’s ccrrrraaaaaazzzzzyyyyy!), then i think we can enjoy more Goodyear yucks as time goes on.
dan in van

Well, if Harper is entrenched behind his ministers despite some pretty damning evidence, ie Ritz, Bernier (before the public embarrassment), O’Connor, and Flaherty (hey, i dare you to invest in our biggest province! It’s ccrrrraaaaaazzzzzyyyyy!), then i think we can enjoy more Goodyear yucks as time goes on.

Paul Wells

Conservative press release, Oct. 7 2008: “Who should Canadians trust to reassure the markets, protect their savings and investments, and see Canada through a period of global economic uncertainty? Prime Minister Harper has a graduate degree in economics; Stéphane Dion is a European-trained professor of sociology.”

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

The notion of trusting an MA in Economics to protect Canadians’ savings and investments is so comical you just have to cry.

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

Not that I have anything against MA’s in Economics: what’s laughable (/deplorable) is that it ain’t the PM’s (or Finance Minister’s) job to analyse the economy or protect savings etc. There is an entire department to do that, along with the Bank.

BTW, anyone know if Harper wrote a master’s thesis? If so, on what?

Sisyphus

Shocking as it may seem , he didn’t like Keynes. Even more shocking, the great minds in the UofC economics department concurred with his thesis.

madeyoulook

Prime Minister, it is time to blow some dust off an old thesis and do some reading.

Ted

Yes he did. His MA was on, and this is no joke, the folly of government spending as stimulus. I’ve been trying to get a copy – I’m sure it is an excellent read – but so far all copies seem to have disappeared, even from the University of Calgary, though Don Martin seems to have gotten a copy – http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=1238141&p=1 – and summarizes Harper’s conclusion that “aggressive government intrusions into the free-market economy should be avoided because they are usually just political ploys for re-election”.

Also: “”The record indicates that particularly activist Keynesian policy has been rare in the postwar period. The results indicated that it should remain so.”

cms

Let’s hope that talk of Harper’s self-described ‘political ploy for re-election’ on the backs of vulnerable Canadians will be heard during the next election…

Critical Reasoning

The notion of trusting a _________________ to protect Canadians’ savings and investments is so comical you just have to cry.

A) lawyer, MA in Civil Law
B) lawyer, truck driver from Baie-Comeau
C) lawyer, LSE doctorate in Soviet Government
D) lawyer, little guy from Shawinigan
E) lawyer, BA in history and philosophy
F) MA in Economics

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

Yeah, well, F) looks pretty good.

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

BUT the whole idea is specious, as I opined above. First, because we’ve wisely taken monetary policy out of the Cabinet’s hands. Second, because a minister’s job is to decide on policy among various options and in view of various analyses undertaken by his servants. Cracking open a dusty copy of “The Wealth of Nations” does not enter into it.
Critical Reasoning

I would argue that an MA in Economics makes one more likely to understand an economic analysis generated by one’s underlings, or one’s current BOC governor. Despite its fatuousness, that Tory press release probably made a valid point, because I don’t think Dion understood a thing about economics (c.f. “the Green Shift” economic assumptions).
http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

Well, that’s a good point, though Dot’s (below) is good too. Though I’d also say it doesn’t take a rocket scientist (sorry, Garneau!) to grasp what your DM tells you. I mean, I understand almost nothing about economics and I’ve still got a reasonable handle on the credit crunch, albeit after the fact. Perhaps the real benefit to Harper’s economics training is his ability to explain the situation to US television audiences, which I thought was really quite superb. He sounded like he knew exactly what he was saying.
archangel

” . . .because a minister’s job is to decide on policy among various options and in view of various analyses undertaken by his servants.”

These people mistrust their “servants”so they listen to their not-infrequent “tummy rumbles”.

KOL

Professional background is more important than education when considering a PM or any other executive, in my opnion. Personally, I’d go with the guy who ran the Iron Ore Company or the former minister of Finance, Treasury Board and a pile of other portfolios instead of the guy who worked at a think-tank for a couple of years. I’m also more likely to believe a real, professional economist like David Dodge or John McCallum than someone who studied economics yet has never earned one red cent working as one for a business or government.

archangel

The National Citizen’s Coalition is not a “think tank” — it is a persistent figment of the late Colin M. Brown’s imagination.

Mulletaur

I’m quite curious about the “European trained” part of that quotation. Foreign trained, therefore bringing alien ideas to Canada, is no doubt what the intention was. As if academic knowledge is not universal. Sort of appealing to the intellectual and anti-intellectual at the same time. You know, like economics is an honest Tim Hortons trade, whereas sociology is some high falutin’ foreign concept with no place in Canada. Anyway, it’s not like the current Bank of Canada incumbent hasn’t been infected with foreign ideas. From Wiki :

“Carney completed a bachelor’s degree in economics from Harvard University in 1988. He attended Nuffield College, Oxford, where he received a master’s degree in economics in 1993, and a doctorate in economics in 1995. Before joining the public service, Carney had a thirteen-year career with Goldman Sachs in its London, Tokyo, New York and Toronto offices. His progressively senior positions included co-head of sovereign risk; executive director, emerging debt capital markets; and managing director, investment banking. He worked on South Africa’s post-apartheid venture into international bond markets, and was heavily involved in Goldman Sachs’s work with the 1998 Russian financial crisis.” (with references to CBC and G&M articles).

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

A European- (or at least insular-) trained BoC chairman! Head for the hills!

Dot

I would argue that an MA in Economics makes one more likely to be very skeptical of the certainty of economic forecasts.

Lord Kitchener’s Own

All evidence to the contrary, eh?
catherine

From the one well-known example of a MA in Economics who continually makes economic forecasts, I’m certainly skeptical of anything he says. Assuming the opposite of what he predicts is usually a fairly safe bet.

http://worthwhile.typepad.com Stephen Gordon

Why oh why has this become a he-said-he-said story?

It seems to me as though the bigger story is which forecast is more plausible.

Paul Wells

I like to defer to the economics blogs for that. I presume your analysis is on its way?

As for why this became a he-said-he-said story: for me that began when an anonymous somebody close to the PM called Dodge an “ankle-biter” in the presence of Bob Fife.

catherine

One or more senior Conservatives, close to Stephen “aiming for a million pictures of me” Harper, accuse Dodge of being “ego-driven” and an “ankle-biter” for saying that Harper’s stimulus spending should have focussed on long-lasting infrastructure and he needs to recognize that recovery will take time? It must be a requirement of working with Harper to lose touch with reality.
D

Bob Fife could easily be the one calling Dodge an “ankle biter” based on his ridiculously biased reporting over the last couple of years. I think of him as the New Mike Duffy. Patiently waiting for his appointment as a Conservative senator.

I would accept Dodge’s assessment of the future of our economy over Harper’s any day. The jury’s still out on Carney but his recent flip-flop from optimism to pessimism is a tad unnerving.
http://worthwhile.typepad.com Stephen Gordon

for me that began when an anonymous somebody close to the PM called Dodge an “ankle-biter” in the presence of Bob Fife.

Ah. That I didn’t know, but I guess it shouldn’t have been a surprise, either.

Barry W

All you good folks rushing to judgement. Don’t you think it might be prudent to wait until we actually see who was right. The way you folks are talking, it’s a bit like deciding on the outcome of a game before it starts and firing the coach on the basis of your opinion. This time next year either the recession will have retreated and Harper will be re-elected, or it won’t and he won’t.

Kaplan

I thought the common refrain on the right was that educated folk are, you know, elitist ivory tower snobs. Funny how the conservatives are so quick to point out the prime minister’s roots in the social sciences.

What WAS Harper’s thesis on, anyway? Is it out there, somewhere?

catherine

Harper’s thesis was on a relevant topic – the influence of political cycles in the formation of fiscal policy, but it contradicts everything he is doing, so he has the experience of knowing what it is like to be wrong, either then or now or both times. But what else would one have expected?
Ted

|Harper’s MA was on, and this is no joke, the self-serving folly of government spending as stimulus.

I’ve been trying to get a copy – I’m sure it is an excellent read – but so far all copies seem to have disappeared, even from the University of Calgary, though Don Martin seems to have gotten a copy – http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=1238141&p=1 – and summarizes Harper’s conclusion that “aggressive government intrusions into the free-market economy should be avoided because they are usually just political ploys for re-election”.

Also: “”The record indicates that particularly activist Keynesian policy has been rare in the postwar period. The results indicated that it should remain so.”

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

Hoo nellie.
catherine

A column in Canadian Business said that Harper’s thesis examined whether political parties manipulated fiscal policy during election years to improve their chances of re-election.

It brings back fond memories of the olden days when some years used to not be considered election years.

archangel

That IS divine comedy, catherine. Brava.

Wotcher?

AMICUS No. 27659842 2 Location(s)
Harper, Stephen Joseph. The political business cycle and fiscal policy in Canada / by Stephen Joseph Harper. — Calgary : The Author, c1991.

HJ793 .H367 1991

Available for interlibrary loan from the Library of Canada
Wotcher?

Harper, Stephen Joseph
The political business cycle and fiscal policy in Canada
September 1991
Thesis (M.A.) University of Calgary

AMICUS No. 27659842

HJ793.H367 1991

Available for interlibrary loan.

I tried to cut and paste this info into my previous comment, but it disappeared into the ether.