Inkless Wells

 Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

Pakistan slides closer to hell

by Paul Wells on Wednesday, April 22, 2009 10:06pm - 25 Comments

Remember the Swat Valley, where the Pakistan government traded Sharia law for peace with the Taliban? The Taliban have used their new secure Swat base as a staging ground for their assault on Buner, the province next door — and that much closer to Islamabad. (Gee, if only somebody had seen this coming. Say, somebody like our own Adnan Khan, with a fantastic cover story in Maclean’s three weeks ago.) Hillary Clinton accuses the Pak regime of “basically abdicating to the extremists.” The man who had hoped to land her job wonders whether Clinton and Obama have any real plan for Pakistan. Three weeks ago I concocted an apocalyptic scenario that does not seem less likely today. Nothing in the world is more dangerous than what’s happening right now in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state on the brink of violent failure. That’s why Canada’s Parliament will hold a thoughtful debate about the situation tomorrow. You’re right, I’m just kidding about that last part.

Tags: ,

Bookmark and Share
  • sf

    Are you kidding me? Obama doesn’t have the stomach for a bar-fight.

    First it was Iraq and Afghanistan, now it’s Iran and Pakistan. Look for problems from Egypt or Syria in the future. But the anti-war hopey-changers don’t want to pull their heads out of the sand.

    • kc

      Pakistan wont be no bar fight, not unless you can find one that holds 100+ million people – looks to me like no one knows which way this ball’s going to break!

    • de

      I don’t know whether or not he has the stomach for an endless conflict with Iran, Pakistan, Syria and Egypt but he certainly doesn’t have the pocketbook.

      • sf

        The problem is that sometimes the conflict comes to you, whether you like it or not. Nuclear warheads can travel a long way.

  • Sean Stokholm

    Paul, have you read anything that ballparks the size and nature of forces that would be needed, at least at a minimum, for any sort of intervention of a meaningful type? Or is it too speculative to consider?

  • JFD

    This is a dangerious world. Violence and revolution seem to be staring civilization in the face.

    We will soon find out if President Obama has the courage to do what has to be done to protect all that is worth protecting.

  • Mulletaur

    Yes, I seem to remember at the time you linked to this story on your blog that I said it seemed like a surrender to me, but I can’t find the link now.

  • http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

    I would speculate that if the new Taliban offensive makes real headway, the Pakistani army will act — to overthrow the democracy in the cities and to brutally assault the Taliban in the mountains. That would of course be profoundly destabilising, but surely there’s no chance that radical Islamists will end up with nukes: maybe there are radical Muslims in the ISI, but I was under the impression that the main part of the army is, if not secular, anti-radical.

  • Al Heck Brakes

    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than what’s happening right now in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state on the brink of violent failure.”

    Gee Paul, you say “violent failure” like it’s some kind of bad thing. I tell you, it ain’t. The people who have been driving US and NATO policy in the middle east and central Asia have been hoping for this all along. Not merely hoping for it, diligently striving for it. This is their dream come true.

    In order to spark a perpetual war and seize the savings and credit of hundreds of millions of people, and spy on them and control their financial transactions and limit where and how they travel – for their protection of course – it was necessary to stir up a lot of trouble. Crazy extremists had to be riled up, and created out of thin air where necessary. The most odious and unpopular foreign dictators had to be given billions of dollars of aid so that they could oppress their own people and whip up the undying hatred of even the most tolerant and reasonable of their citizens. Hundreds of innocent people had to be whisked away to be tortured and thousands of women and children had to be blown to smithereens by air-launched missiles because information was received that the extremists were, you know, using them for cover.

    Now they are enjoying the sweet smell of victory – an insane, violent, extremist faction with the broad backing of tens of millions of muslims is about to sweep down and seize a stockpile of “nucular” weapons. No more having to lie about WMDs being “in danger of becoming imminent”. We’re on the brink of a dangerous crisis. Or as Rahm Emanuel calls them, “opportunities”.

    Thank you, neocons. Thank you, ignorant, egotistical politicians. You wanted a clash of civilizations, but it’s too bad you had to destroy your own civilization to get it.

    • CAPS

      We finally really did it.

      You maniacs!

      You blew it up!

      God damn you!

      God damn you all to hell!

  • Mike G

    Dohoho, thoughtful debate in Parliament.

    Who’s our FM right now? Ha– wait, no, he’s the PM, isn’t he? I get so confused!

    • Chris B

      I can just picture this now….

      MIchael Ignatieff: What is the response of Canada to the Taliban threat in Pakistan (excpet his question would really be four paragraphs)…

      Pierre Poilevre: Well, whatever we do, we will not raise taxes for Canadians, like the member from Etobicoke-Lakeshore has promised to do.

  • http://myblahg.com Robert McClelland

    Nothing in the world is more dangerous than what’s happening right now in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state on the brink of violent failure.

    Are we talking about the same Taliban that could barely hold off the Northern Alliance to maintain power in Afghanistan?

    • Lord Kitchener’s Own

      Are we talking about the same Taliban that could barely hold off the Northern Alliance to maintain power in Afghanistan?

      Well, yes and no, but I think you’re missing the point. I don’t think anyone’s arguing that the Taliban are really in a position to take, let alone hold, Pakistan. I do think they’re probably in a position to throw Pakistan into total chaos though. The problem is more tactical than strategic, in a sense. And all the more dangerous for it, I’d say. I’m not really worried about the Taliban wresting control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal from the army, I’m worried about them getting their hands on just one or two nukes (or, almost as dangerous, a bit of nuclear material).

      It’s not the fanatics who want to overthrow a government and get their hands on dozens of nuclear weapons that you really need to be scared of, it’s the fanatics who only want to get their hands on one (or, more apropos, the fanatics who can only get their hands on just one, and are then immediately in danger of losing it). I’m not scared of the Taliban getting control of Pakistan. I’m pretty terrified of the Taliban getting (likely fleeting) control of just one facility in Pakistan. If they managed to do that, they wouldn’t have much time to do something with it, and a group of nuts with a nuke and a deadline ought to scare anyone.

      • Just Visiting

        I find it hard to believe that the U.S. doesn’t know the exact locations of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and wouldn’t take out these facilities quickly and effectively before extremist elements actually took over, or totally destabilized, the Pak government. I think most people everywhere would approve of this kind of preemptive action (even hardcore peaceniks like me!).

        - JV

        • Scott M.

          I don’t find that hard to believe at all. The Pakistani government probably doesn’t want that information shared, and probably has one or two sites that aren’t on the USA’s radar.

        • Chris B

          … unless the Taliban were to somehow co-opt the Pakistani military guarding one site and get a weapon before the US or the Pakistani government was able to respond. Just one out of a million scenarios that are possible.

          How about another – India, so concerned about the Taliban getting a nuclear device that THEY launch pre-emptive strikes? Or, India deciding to use the confusion to try and take control of Kashmir? Or Taliban extremists using their new safe haven to try and provoke India? And hey look, that is China just over the mountains there.

          All of which is to say, that I don’t think we can pin our hopes on a US white knight riding into the rescue.

      • http://myblahg.com Robert McClelland

        I’m more concerned, LKO, that a faction of the military will use the threat of the Taliban to to install a hard line military dictatorship that wants war with India.

        • Mulletaur

          That can be contained and negotiated. A Pakistan ruled by the Taliban, not so much.

  • http://carnewsandviews.com jwl

    Hard to believe I agree with Kerry about anything but I think he’s spot on about Obama/Clinton and ‘not a real strategy’. Obama has no foreign affairs plan, he is just going to see what happens while everyone calls him a genius for doing nothing. Obama is doing an impression of Chauncey Gardiner when it comes to foreign affairs.

  • SAB

    There was an article in New Yorker (link to the abstract below) recently that actually explicitly laid out the Pakistan strategy: Convince the government, military, and various other players in Pakistan that their biggest threat is not India — it’s extremist insurgents in Pakistan.

    The article is fascinating, the strategy is incredibly coherent and logical, and might even work. The fact that India did not retailiate against Pakistan after the Mumbai bombing is evidence that it is working.

    But it’s slow.

    I have no idea if it truly is working or if it will work – but it is clearly a Pakistan strategy.

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/03/02/090302fa_fact_coll

  • The Hoot Owl

    If only Wajid Khan were still around to grace us with his wisdom and foresight.

  • Northern PoV

    So much ill informed opinion displayed here – right from the top of the page.

    Now for some informed comment on Pakistan:

    http://www.juancole.com/2009/04/readers-have-written-me-asking-what-i.html

  • kim

    Ehy you guys are not worried about falling nukes into extremist hindus hans in india.We are tired about the drama and stupid guesses of the danger of falling those nukes into extremist hands.Remember last year one of the american b-52 had flown all over states with live nukes on.That is the level of the security and safeguards of american nukes.

Previous

Next

From Macleans