Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

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The new new poll: The ads worked! Or, Ipsos Factos

by Paul Wells on Monday, May 25, 2009 10:42pm - 48 Comments

Wipe that smirk off your face, Wells. The rest of Canada is clearly deeply concerned by French French and Algonquin Park envy. The Conservatives surge — in the Greenspon memorial sense of the word “surge,” meaning “to move slightly” — from three points back to two points up on the Liberals Canada-wide. (Bigcitylib will now lead the choir in a hearty round of It’s All Within The Margin of Error.) Quebec numbers, on a wobbly smaller sample, actually closely resemble this morning’s Leger poll.

I know Ekos has been in the field lately too. I know because they robo-called me on my cell phone, with a short questionnaire suggesting, though this is mostly a hunch, a large sample. No idea who the media partner for that one is. We’ll know soon.

Tags: Ipsos, Polls, startling turnarounds

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madeyoulook

Canwest-Global commissioned a poll? I hope Ipsos-Reid insisted on cash up front.

Gene Rayburn

They probably just pushed themselves ahead of the other creditors in preparation for the bankruptcy hearing

http://scottdiatribe.canflag.com Scott Tribe

Well.. I wont say the MOE line.. but I will note most of the movement appears to have come in Ontario.

If it was the attack ads doing this.. you’d think the Liberals drop would be more widespread in other areas, wouldn’t you?

I got robo-called by Ekos too a few days ago.. they didnt ask anything about attack ads though.. just if I supported high speed rail in Southern Ontario and between Edmonton and Calgary (which I said I did).

sbt

“If it was the attack ads doing this.. you’d think the Liberals drop would be more widespread in other areas, wouldn’t you?’

Why would we expect that? If the Liberal vote in Ontario is softer in Ontario than other regions or, if for some reason, a disproportionate number of Liberal voters likely to be affected by the ads live in Ontario then we would see a larger drop in Ontario than other regions. Doesn’t mean that’s what’s happening but there really isn’t any reason to believe that an equivalent drop in Liberal support would be seen across the country.

Dot

I think you should call these poll blogs – plogs.
http://www.chuckercanuck.blogspot.com chuckercanuck

” (Bigcitylib will now lead the choir in a hearty round of It’s All Within The Margin of Error.) ”

followed by [insert favorite grit blogger other than BCL] cautioning we should wait for Nanos to weigh in.

Wascally Wabbit

Yup – I’ll just wait for Nik Nanos to come up with the REAL numbers thank you.
Happy – chucker?

Blues Clair

<i<"This is the same pattern we have seen for the last two or three years now, where Ontario goes up and down like a toilet seat,"
- Darrell Bricker

Strange, but lovely.

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

Ontarians are such gentlemen.
Gene Rayburn

I already saw that being reused by someone over at the National Post; expect that metaphor to be in wide circulation amongst the Canadian politico blogosphere for some time to come

Daryl

Oh yes, everyone wants to know if the ads worked or not, just a few weeks after they started.
Meanwhile North Korea is testing Nukes. Ssshhhh maybe noone will notice.

Paul Wells

You’re right. Everything hinges on whether I blog about the North Korean nukes. I have an awesome power. Thanks, Einstein.

Gene Rayburn

Oppenheimer would have been delightfully more ironic, Paul

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Oppenheimer

lorne

“Now I am become Paul Wells, the destroyer of polls. Listen unto my iPod and abandon all hope.”

Brother Daryl

Good job, Daryl. I too am sick of sick of Paul’s North Korea agenda.

Daryl

Sorry Wells but not everything is about you. But I understand why you think it is. It is your blog.

Larry

As your older brother I am surprised you two can type, let alone talk. See you back at the Cafe.

DT

Damn! I was just going to give you a shot on the poll results and you’re already issuing a mea culpa! That said, I’m sure I’ll regret the attempt with the release of the next poll.
http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

“The Liberals also may be set back by new attack ads against Ignatieff . . .”

Lord, is it too much to ask that pollsters include a question about the ads? E.g. “Has your preference been influenced by the recent Conservative ads about Michael Ignatieff?” Then we could all do the Vulcan salute and call it a night.

Gene Rayburn

More questions? That’ll cost you a couple thousand more, and — as madeyoulook pointed out — Canwest isn’t really in the position to be charitable.

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

What is the financial motive for media organisations to commission polls? Is it an honour system that now the Globe, now the CBC, now Canwest will take a turn partnering with Ipsos, Ekos, Nanos? Is there a grace period in which they don’t report on a competitor’s poll? And do they do it just to have a good story for the cover, or because we dare not go a month without a poll?

Stephen

Content to capture eyeballs and brains to resell to advertisers.

Is this such a mystery?

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

I’m just surprised one story is worth that much outlay, even if you can milk it into more than one bucket.

Stephen

But could you believe the answer? People are not very good at describing their motivations or decision making process. In fact they are nototiously bad at it.

Better question would be…at the end, have you seen the ads? Even then you’ll end up with a number of correlations that may or may not be relevant. Even then, would you believe the answer that self identified Liberals, Dippers or Conservatives gave?

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

Ah, nice, right. Also, “how many times have you seen the ads” — which might not produce accurate answers but would measure how much impact / exposure they’re getting.

kc

Oh my god they’re working! Time for iggy to drag out the seige guns. “SH, closely related to Chris Harper a man who was ” vindictive to a pont beyond all reason.” Why take any more chances? If the current Harper incarnation hasn’t nobbled you yet, it’s only a matter of time…history says so”!
– this message brought to you by the Mad River centre for political studies.

No insult intended but who are those guys? Saw their handle in the G&Ms letter section today, thought it was great.

kc

Er…point…not sure if there’s a pont beyond reason. Or before it for that matter.

RayK

I think it was a no brainer that these ads would play differently in English Canada than in Quebec.

From the linked article: “The Liberals, while significantly ahead of their showing under former leader Stephane Dion, have dropped three points to 33 per cent support of decided voters.”

Nonesense. Dion was in the low thirties until the election. Much as I suggest Ignatieff will be :)–unless things get even worse for him.
tom

EKOS numbers are garbage. Always have been. Don’t know why you like them.

Mulletaur

Quite.

Critical Reasoning

I’ve never been robo-called by Ipsos. I feel left out.

Dot

Polldaddy is working on a robo-call add-on. Be patient.

http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com bigcitylib

Its all within the margin of error and, anyway, its a CanWest poll.
Anon

The poll clearly shows the brilliance of TheStrategist ™.

PolJunkie

Give me a break. Ipsos consistently produce higher numbers for the Tories then everyone else.

Canuckistanian

too true.

Mike514

Speaking of attack ads, what about the attack webpage onprobation.ca? It seems to have been widely ineffective. The evidence is the Liberals’ refusal to update it. The word “beta” still appears below the logo.

http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com bigcitylib

I don’t see the point of “attack websites”. Who visits them more than one time? Ignatieff.me was a mild giggle the 1st time. But why go back?

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

Thanks to your comment, bigcitylib, I just checked out the site for the first time and I have to say it’s rather too clever. What small fraction of the electorate understands enough about this stuff to get half the jokes?

Jarrid

I see many of the usual Liberal commenters busily deconstructing the latest poll.

We had an election 7 short months ago. We’ve had 3 elections in less than 5 years. (The Liberals have fared worse in each of these last three elections BTW.)

Canadians want to see their politicians adressing the economic situation facing this country. So far Canada is doing better than other countries but there are still plenty of problems out there.

Shouldn’t the Liberal Party of Canada be proposing suggestions to the nation’s problems instead of scheming to assume power? The Liberals have been out of power now for three and a half years now but I don’t see any obvious signs of renewal. Everything the Liberals have done since being thrown out of office has been short-term and improvised. To the extent it wasn’t, it was simply wonky, The Green Shift, The Coalition, The Not Having A Leadership Or Policy Convention.

And the Liberals are pining for an election? What ever happened to responsible opposition? There is something indecent about this continuous and unabated lust for power.

Mulletaur

C’mon Jarrid, say it : “The only poll that matters … “
JP

“There is something indecent about this continuous and unabated lust for power.”

You’re a Harper supporter eh Jarrid?
JP

By the way proposing one national standard for EI and a lower number of hours to qualify might be described as a ‘suggestion to the nation’s problems”. You may have noticed the Liberals askibng some questions about this in QP.

You may have also noticed Ignatieff suggesting that he would prefer Parliament do something about this rather than it ending in a non-confidence vote and possible election. Sort of like he opted to vote for the budget after the Conservatives made improvements to it, rather than going with the coalition option.

Don’t want to disrupt your narrative or anything, but you know…you may want to consider some of the conflicting evidence.

Orson Bean

I still wonder about this whole EI reform thing, and specifically whether it’s really the horse that the Liberals ought to be jumping on and riding into an election campaign. For a few reasons:

1. It’s pretty easy for the Tory spinmeisters to spin this as yet another revenue grab from the pockets of ordinary working Canadians to fund a further expansion of an already existing entitlement program.

2. Most voters have jobs, will have jobs at election time, and are not now and will not then be in mortal danger of losing said jobs. If you don’t believe me, check out our unemployment rate.

3. People who have jobs are decidedly more likely to vote than people who don’t. Oh yeah, then there are seniors/retirees, who also are more likely to vote — EI reform does SFA for them.

4. To most people, this looks like something coming from the left end of the political spectrum. The potential problem I see is that the NDP and the Bloc can always out-lefty the Liberals. So I don’t even see how the Liberals would own this as an issue in an election campaign.

I’m not saying EI reform is wrong or right policy-wise. What I wonder about is the politics of it and whether that really favours the Liberals the way the Liberal brain trust seems to (apparently) think.

PolJunkie

Oh please… We are talking about an Ipsos poll, right?
http://www.ipsos.com Darrell Bricker

Thanks for all of the comments. As for PolJunkie, I have no idea what you’re talking about. In our last election poll we actually under-estimated Tory support, so your comment is inaccurate.

Here’s what the poll means – Liberal post-convention momentum has stalled. Based on other research I’ve seen, Ontario’s panic about the economy has subsided a little bit, and that’s probably one reason. But, I also think that the anti-Iggy ads are biting a bit. Can any poll show the independent impact of the ads? I’d doubt it. But, based on experience (remember Dion), informed commentary would have to take them into account.

To me, the big finding, apart from the Liberal stall in the overall numbers, is the relative strength and weakness of the Tories and Grits in Quebec. Even though the Tories are ahead nationally, their weakness in Quebec is a huge problem. And, the Grits look poised to make a breakthrough in Quebec.

Canuckistanian

“As for PolJunkie, I have no idea what you’re talking about. In our last election poll we actually under-estimated Tory support, so your comment is inaccurate. Also, look…over there, a unicorn!” (Hides all polls from before last election showing Ipsos’ tory numbers higher than other polling outfits) ;-)
Stephen

Thats not a fair fight darrell….you’re using facts