Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

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A decisive, patriotic Canadian, able to deal with tough economic times

by Paul Wells on Sunday, May 31, 2009 2:59pm - 34 Comments

By a hefty margin, that’s how Canadians outside Quebec seem to view Stephen Harper, at least in comparison to Michael Ignatieff. (The numbers are, by and large, reversed in Quebec, where the Conservatives are comically unable to reverse their momentum — but where the Liberals would gain perhaps a dozen of the 60-odd seats they need to form a government, if the recent horse-race polls bore out.)

To say the least, it seems significant that Harper’s greatest margin over Ignatieff (still outside Quebec) is on whether each leader is seen as “a patriotic Canadian.” Harper’s margin there is 34 points, nearly double his next-widest margin. Those ads seem to have succeeded in popping Ignatieff squarely on the snoot. But have no fear, Liberals: I hear the leader and his entourage are preparing to spend another two weeks vigorously threatening to do something about it all. If you mess with me, I will mess with you until I’m done, just as soon as I start.

Here’s an email I received three days after the Conservatives started airing the Just Visiting ads:

ON BACKGROUND…IF YOU CHOOSE TO USE…”SENIOR CONSERVATIVE” IS FINE.
The simple fact that we are debating the “Canadianness” of the Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada is a victory for Conservatives. Iggy is now playing defence on the #1 brand attribute of the Liberal Party. Even after the sponsorship scandal the Liberals still owned being the “Canada Party”. The party with the pan-Canadian vision. The party best able to keep the country together. The party with the independent foreign policy. Having a Liberal play defence on his “Canada” credentials is as bad as a Republican having to defend his commitment to the U.S. military or a New Democrat having to defend her commitment the labour movement. Attacks on Iggy related to ”arrogance and elitism” (e.g. the “arrogance spot”) and/or “tax and spend” (e.g. the “economy” spot) are standard operating procedure – the personalization of negative brand attributes associated with the party itself. But the attacks on Ignatieff’s long-term commitment to the country are much deeper and much more problematic for a Liberal.

Of course it’s just an email from the side that would, of course, be saying stuff like this. Of course there are all kinds of reasons to take this poll result with a grain of salt. These sorts of “underlying numbers” often lag party preference — one guy looks like the prime minister until you decide he won’t be prime minister, at which point the guy who looked like a zhlub suddenly starts to clean up nicely. But 34 points… well, it suggests there was a reason why the Liberal leader picked True Patriot Love for his book title. The rest of the anthem’s lyrics may come in handy for swiftly-written sequels.

Tags: Michael Ignatieff, polls are for dogs, Stephen Harper

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http://dredtory.blogspot.com/ Sir Francis

Heh. "Senior Conservative". I love it! What does it take to be a "senior" member of a five-and-a-half-year-old party? Is it enough to have graduated from Le Chateau to Harry Rosen?

At all events, when he/she says, "we are debating the “Canadianness” of the Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada," it is accurate as long as the "we" stands for "the media". And by "the media", I mean "even Rick Salutin". Sadly.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack_Mitchell

"Is it enough to have graduated from Le Chateau to Harry Rosen?"

LOL
avr

What does it take to be a "senior" member of a five-and-a-half-year-old party?

Don't be obtuse; you're clearly better than that.
avr

1. This new comment interface is exceptionally awkward.
2. Relying on 24/7 manual comment approvals that have to go through one person's iPhone is pretty lame, as such things go.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack_Mitchell

Dude, the thing's only been installed for 24 hours.
http://intensedebate.com/people/EdCoyne EdCoyne

I've used IntenseDebate on a few of my blogs. It looked cool and I thought it might generate more discussions. It doesn't, so I removed it.

http://www.jackmitchell.ca Jack Mitchell

What about "Ceint de fleurons glorieux"? 'Twould leap off the shelves at Parchemin, I ween.
matt

"IGNATIEFF: Thy Son's Command"
avr

Those ads seem to have succeeded in popping Ignatieff squarely on the snoot.

But…but…they were going to backfire! Badly! Everyone said so! What kind of world do we live in when the high-minded snobs of the professional Canadian commentatariat are just plain wrong about such things, I ask you?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack_Mitchell

Or in which the low-minded cynics are proved right?

Austin So

I'd like to know whether the sampling is based on population distribution or regional distribution…but whatever makes the CPC feel good about itself…
http://intensedebate.com/people/SophiaGeffros SophiaGeffros

This just proves one thing: We have no right to complain about the tone of our political discourse if we keep proving that it's in a party's best interests to lower said debate. If it works, they will continue to do it.
And that is a shame.

Conan

Sopia, of course we have a right to complain. Possibly a duty. Low-brow demagoguery and political victories secured by defamation and character assassination — has always worked, in myriad cultures throughout history, and likely always will, when people stoop to it. The only reason it isn't universally applied 24/7 is that members of elites in some political subcultures think themselves above this sort of awfulness – or think they wouldn't be able to get away with it, because "it just isn't done" or "it simply won't do" among their peer group. We should continue to insist that politicians listen to their better angels, and we should make plain our visceral rejection of those who would import Karl Rove's Way into our country.

Anon

Of course there are all kinds of reasons to take this poll result with a grain of salt.

Yes. Online poll, for one.

Senior Conservative — Tom Flanagan? Sounds like him :-)
J.P.

Yep, I agree that sounds like Flanagan..or possible Ian Brodie, one of those professional cynics who are destroying Canadian politics.

Orson Bean

Unlike those paragons of virtue on the other side, like Warren Kinsella . . .

Calgary Junkie

This past Tuesday on Ottawa's CFRA radio:

Rob Snow: … And we saw [NDPer] Brad Lavigne … say the attack ads … are probably going to be effective. Do you think they are going to be effective ?

Nik Nanos: It's a little too early to tell, but in my experience it takes two things for attack ads to move the numbers. First of all the attack ads have to be good and very focused. Second of all they need the target, whoever the target is to validate them … what they would need is for Michael Ignatieff to say or do something at this point in time to validate what the Conservatives are saying .

link: http://www.cfra.com/interviews/default.asp

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack_Mitchell

Nik Nanos is very wise.

Mulletaur

Ah yes, another 'poll' by the Evil Council. They backed Master Pain a.k.a. Betty, and we all know how that ended.
Luke

“Able to deal with tough economic times” Was this poll taking before Flaherty changed his deficit numbers to a historical level of 50 billion? Four months ago the deficit was 33 billion. How to deal with tough economic times, pretend to shovel money out the door?
How much of this deficit is stimulus money and how much is this government’s mismanagement on the finance file?
Ted

One thing I wonder about these ads as compared to the Dion ads that I have not seen discussed is where they lead.

With the personal attack ads on Ignatieff, they have relayed a fact. Not to dismiss the importance or to claim its relevance, but that Ignatieff has been away from Canada is a single fact. OK, Canadians know that now. It either makes no difference to you or it means you could never vote for him or it makes you go 'hmmm'. But what next? Once you know that fact, how do you reinforce the message? Everything that Iggy does as leader, campaigning, writing, showing up at local events, etc. for those that are unsure now, there is nothing on this issue to really nudge them further since he's not going to be acting less patriotic, he won't have been any more away.

The ball is in Ignatieff's court on this one, but I think the issue is – even if "won" simply by talking about it – is a whole lot of effort and hundreds of thousands of dollars for little effect and one that is easily chipped away simply with the passage of time, let alone concerted effort.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack_Mitchell

Excellent point, Ted.
Calgary Junkie

Where do the ads lead ?

A lot depends on what Iggy does next. One thing about politcs, is that no matter what a Party or leader does, the other guys will spin it in a negative light. So, for example, if Iggy tables a non-confidence motion in June, the Tories are probably going to spin it along the lines of what Wilson says–"Here we are in the middle of a difficult recession, with all that stimulus money still on the table, and so much more to be done, yet here is Iggy wanting an election so soon ?!?—like we said in the ads, he's not in it for Canada, he's only in it for himself

Whether that Tory spin will resonate with voters is hard to tell. But there is no doubt that Iggy will have to produce his ownspin on why he is forcing an election. The best I can come up for him is something along the lines of "Harper is ignoring the will of the majority, to make the changes to EI that are so badly needed".

Ted

"A lot depends on what Iggy does next. "

Sorta kinda what I meant by "the ball is in Ignatieff's court on this one".

Critical Reasoning

I would love to poll blog commenters on how they feel about the changes, but unfortunately the "IntenseDebate" plugin has brought my nascent polling career to a crashing halt.
wilson

The ads took the shine off of MI's 'out of country accomplishments' Ted. And that was supposed to have been one of the aces he held to counter his lack of politcal experience.
Can he now boast about anything he did while out of Canda, without bringing to mind the ads?

Will Canadians think ''he's in it for himself'' if Libs table a non-confidence motion, trying to precipitate an election Canadians don't want?

kcm

Canadians think all of them are in it for themselves. Nice one…chessmaster!
Calgary Junkie

Yes, that is one of the dangers for Iggy, if he tries to initiate an early election. The obvious spin from the Tories is that "Canadians don't want an election, so soon after the last one, in the middle of a recession, with all that stimulus money on the table … so like we said, Iggy isn't in it for Canada, he's only in it for himself"

I remember before Harper called the last election, the pundits correctly predicted that Harper's reason for calling the election would be an issue. But nobody knew what kind of legs it would have, whether the Libs and media could keep that issue going. It lasted a couple of days.

It's going to be the same thing at the start of a summer election. Iggy will have some explaining to do. The unknown is whether that issue will have legs, or resonate with voters.

kcm

These are sad times. As C. Hebert [ i gotta find a new fav pundit] says: Each man is desperately hoping we'll be looking at the other one's faults, and not his. I'm close to quitting on fed elections. I can't look myself in the mirror anymore.
Sam

It's sad that the bar keeps getting lowered, ever so lower and lower….

brick tamlin

LIMBOOOO!

Wayne

This fight is shaping up to be better than I originally thought it would . I am especially impressed with the liberals managing to stay in the game and even score a few minor points here and there. Iggy is far superior a fighter compared to Dion and there is no doubt on that point – what I find quite interesting are the amount of posts now on various web forums such as CBC, TGM and the Star where a fair amount of people see no difference between Harper or Iggy .. this is an interesting area for exploration I think and if anyone reports on the analysis of this I will certainly read the article.
http://farnwide.blogspot.com/ SteveV

Funny, I haven't noticed Iggy playing "defence". More like mocking the government for focusing on partisan attacks while were in the midst of this economic mess. I have, however, heard many Conservative commentators "defending" these ads, against all the negative feedback. I also find it curious now, that the new frame from Conservatives, which some in the media are now parroting- this is a long term exercise, don't expect results immediately. Hmmm, I remember Kerry diving almost immediately, and didn't the polls show a change within a month or two of "not a leader"?
http://www.remembernovember11th.com/juno-beach/ Proud Canadian

http://www.remembernovember11th.com/juno-beach/

For all proud Canadians….