Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

EKOS/CBC: Man, those voters are a volatile bunch, aren't they?

by kadyomalley on Thursday, June 25, 2009 11:25am - 48 Comments

CPC 34.8/LIBS 32.6/NDP 14.3/BQ 9.0/GRN 9.3
Well, the latest CBC/EKOS numbers are out, and – as foreshadowed by last week’s results, it would seem to be bad news for the Liberals, who have fallen behind the Conservatives for the first time in months.

Here’s what EKOS pollologist-in-chief Frank Graves has to say:

votersaremoody

The Conservative Party has edged ahead of the Liberal Party after months of lagging behind, according to the latest EKOS poll, released exclusively to cbc.ca. The Liberal Party and its leader, Michael Ignatieff, appear to have paid a price for threatening to take the country to the polls this summer. EKOS’ daily tracking shows that they nose-dived after making the threat last week.

Although the Liberals may have recovered some of that ground once they made a deal with Prime Minister Harper to avoid an election after all, it has nonetheless been a bad week for them. At the same time, the Conservatives are benefitting from rising optimism about the economy among some Canadians – those affected more directly by the economic news or stock and real estate markets than by the labour market, which continues to deteriorate.

The Liberals may well recover from this short-term political setback,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “At least that has been the pattern of the last six months when purely political events have rocked Canadians’ voting intentions.” “More hopeful for the Conservatives and worrisome for the Liberals is the rising optimism on the economy, which is clearly behind some of the movement back to the Conservatives from the Liberals in recent weeks. This might have the makings of a more enduring trend.” The principal movement in this most recent poll took place in Ontario. For several months the Liberals have enjoyed an advantage in the province, often reaching into the double-digits. Now, they are neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in Canada’s largest province.

Honestly, y’all, I just don’t know what to make of these numbers — I mean, yes, it does appear to back up the contention that Canadians were, to put it mildly, some ticked by Ignatieff’s brief but lively foray into electoral brinksmanship – but if that’s the case, why the extreme slumpage at the end of the week, when the danger had passed, and the Liberals — having backed down two days prior — were voting with the government to pass the last bits of the budget bill while counting down the minutes til the House would adjourn for the summer? As for the Conservatives, with the exception of that weird one-day plunge last Thursday, the determinedly upwards trendline has to be encouraging, but if – as Graves suggests – it’s mostly to do with the economy, doesn’t that mean any such gains could be wiped out in the future by a weeks’ worth of less-than-cheery headlines? And what’s behind the apparent flatlining by the NDP?

Over to you, commenters. Thoughts, theories, wild speculation?

Tags: Ekos, poll-y poll-y homefree

More by kadyomalley

Trillium

This is just up and down on the news cycle, so anything can change it from day to day.

Choosing a govt is a different matter tho, and will depend on policies stated at election time.

At the moment it's just 6 of one, and half a dozen of the other.

Flip-a-coin time.
Richard Peregrino

The mustache's numbers kinda look like the big dipper in your trendline snapshot. Coincidence?
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Polls generate more idle musings than anything in politics. The analyses often assume that there is collective consciousness, and they totally over-represented very temporary whims held by respondents.

That said, it is kinda like a watching a horse race, and you don't really know which horse is holding something in reserve without doing a Rosenstone forecast.

My own opinion about this poll, is that those dreaded Conservative attack ads on Iggy's character, plus his own actions that brought home the fact that he is a politician after all, have served as a one-two punch.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Polls generate more idle musings than anything in politics. The analyses often assume that there is collective consciousness, and they totally over-represent very temporary whims held by respondents.

That said, it is kinda like a watching a horse race, and you don't really know which horse is holding something in reserve without doing a Rosenstone forecast.

My own opinion about this poll, is that those dreaded Conservative attack ads on Iggy's character, plus his own actions that brought home the fact that he is a politician after all, have served as a one-two punch.

cwe

I'm going to go with what you said, Mr. Sweeney, but seeing as it's such a nice day for idle musings, I think I'm going to spend some extra time doing exactly that…maybe Canadians did actually want a summer election, and they're punishing Ignatieff for not giving it to them…maybe, given that the risk of an election was already past by the time the poll was taken, people think their chances of Ignatieff showing up at their bbq with stories about his relative who originally explored the area containing the backyard they occupy back in 17something or other, are better if he's down a couple of points…or maybe again, with the risk of an election in the past by the time the questions were asked, the respondents sort of didn't care how they answered…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

poll-wreckers, yeah I know a few who do it purposefully, their own little piece of anarchistic glory. Bravo!

Polls – the National Enquirer form of political commentary. A lot of fun with not much substance. I would love to have Iggy over for a bbq, but I think I would prefer to talk to him about his uncle George. Maybe kid him about how well George's writings hold up, while those of his detractors (not naming names, Michael), well, not so much.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

poll-wreckers, yeah I know a few who do it purposefully, their own little piece of anarchistic glory. Bravo!

Polls – the National Enquirer form of political commentary. A lot of fun with not much substance. I would love to have Iggy over for a bbq, but I think I would prefer to talk to him about his uncle George. Maybe kid him about how well George's writings hold up, while those of his detractors (not naming names, Michael), well, not so much.

…And I can't tell you how heartening it is, to have Fozzy Bear on-side with me. Thanks, Fozzy

http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

I'd argue the slump is from the fact the Liberals backed off their rhetoric. When you list 4 key things you wanted to see out of this Conservative government, and you end up not getting anything for 3 key demands and getting a compromise on your 4th position.. and the media notices that and hammers on the Liberals for being wishy-washy – and the public notice that.. that's where the slump comes from.

Charles

If the NDP numbers had stayed up, I would agree.

One interesting thing in the crosstabs – NDP is in second place in Atlantic Canada, at 31.6%. Are we seeing a bump from Dexter's election in Nova Scotia, maybe?

http://intensedebate.com/people/mrgenier mrgenier

Scott_Tribe stole my thunder!
He's got the explanation spot on.
Stephen

Scott and Mr Grenier,

I would speculate that your explaination makes sense if the support went to the NDP…..that it went to the conservatives….probably a combination that of election threat and back down made Iggy look less than stellar.

The threat on its own was probably unwelcome and when combined with the backdown and the re-emergence of reasonable sweater steve then voters went back to the devil they know can drive.

MI needs the summer and likely longer to define himself, and get his party in shape, money and more importatnly policy wise. Spring 2010 might be the next realiastic window. By that time voters will either have warmed to Iggy, or Harper will be able to pull the plug.

I am sure Harper would rather wait till post summer 2010 though, he gets to host a G8 meeting. And who wouldnt want to do that?
William

Those of us who knew that the adverts about Iggy`s absenteeism would soon filter to the voter`s minds are not surprised by these poll results. And I suppose you could say that the idle threats and preachiness of Iggy the past few weeks would annoy most anyone.

However if the next poll shows the Liberals dropping further then the Liberals may have a real problem on their hands. If they can`t outpoll the gov`t now when they have a new leader, when we are in a major recession, and when PM Harper isn`t exactly cruising on an Obamaian popularity, then when will they ?

Somebody over at the LIberal Party should be looking at the long term future of the Party instead of focusing on their perceived greatness of their past and their negativity of the present.
Mulletaur

The results of a single snapshot poll do not a trend make. Nevertheless, it does demonstrate that the Liberals have not yet solidified their lead. Those who were desparate for a summer election should draw the appropriate conclusions.

Charles

True, esp. when the Lib/Con numbers seem to move back and forth each day. We may just be seeing a lot of noise here that masks what we knew already – the race is basically tied.

D-R

Iggy is a bigger wuss than Dion ever was. Who would vote for that?
swhh

One would presume that the NDP would be experiencing some jump with frustrated left-of-centre Liberals fed up with their continued propping up…
That is the most confusing part of this, you think the ndp would be gaining from frustration with liberals, not the conservatives.

Charles

My guess is that more people are switching to "undecided", but that's not shown here.

http://intensedebate.com/people/BCerInToronto BCerInToronto

I'd speculate an election possibility and a week of bad media coverage caused some folks to decide while the like the idea of Ignatieff, they're not ready to buy-in and hand him the keys yet. They didn't go NDP because is was an ineffective week for Jack too, and they don't see him as a viable PM anyway. So some movement back to the CPC, because in a storm better the devil you know. The vote remains soft, but the Libs are going to need to give them some meat if they're going to grab and keep it.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Yeah, ineffective week for Jack too. He is more effective as a rabblerouser.

http://liberalvideodepot.blogspot.com Ted

I'll ask an outlier question: what Liberal dip? There is a whopping difference of 0.9% over the course of a month and 1.1% from last week. If you split the 1000 people surveyed into two groups of 500, you'd get a differential greater than that between the two groups I'd bet.

I am not saying that there is no dip, but you just can't tell from this poll.

Charles

True – it's within the margin of error. I'm inclined to say that this is just the noise you get when the two parties are basically tied.

Earth Man

easy to explain – The lIbs stance on C-15 and caving to Pm (regardless of verité of that). I have Lib but the C-15 thing is becoming a straw that broke this back and afew others as well within the party methinks.

Why vote for an ersatz Right Wing Party controlled by Bay Street – the Libs, when you can vote for a real Right Wing Party, the CPC?

Iggy needs to glom on to the decrim decrim decrim message or he will go the way of the dodo. They are either Liberals or they are not – currently they do not appear to follow anything like a liberal doctrine.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Well they have certainly been following a NEO-liberal doctrine for the past, say 25, years. By decrim do you mean marijuana? Do you think that is huge issue, or do you mean as a symbol that they are not just another right wing party?

Earth Man

as a budgetary measure what we are doing – mandatory minimums for drug offences just exacerbate the situation – even the UN now is okay for decrim. It;s a money/leadership issue.

Do you have any sense? is the question this issue answers.

States are back-pedaling on these laws as they become increasing too expensive to fund – can you imagine jailing something 65 percent (here in BC) of the population wants to be legalized.

At some point, laws that criminalize 10 – 50 percent of the population at any one time are not enforceable.

It can be the issue if someone has the courage to bring it up frankly when asked.

http://liberalvideodepot.blogspot.com Ted

Right. And the NDP numbers going prove that you are… er, um, nevermind.

Earth Man

the dippers are dying because of the anti-profit/succes pro-jihadi Marxist Leninists.

It's a question of dollars and sense, well out of the hippy range in 2009.

Dee

Nothing to see hear folks… show's over…

The thing I find hilarious about these poll news releases is how the pollster in question expounds for about two pages about what the latest numbers MEAN. The reality is they are making it up as they go…

There is little that is new that can be gleaned from a poll such as this (particularly the regional/city/age-group/yadda-yadda breakdowns that are small statistical samples with large errors).

If I was to summarize the numbers (as someone with a vague understanding of statistics, unlike more than a few journalists, judging from the breathless reports of polls that I have read in the media) it would be as follows:

-the Liberals and Conservatives have been essentially statistically tied since early May… this continues.

-Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff have similar approval/disapproval ratings (with a few more voters currently disapproving of Harper). The change since Jan. has been a slight decrease in disapproval of Harper and a slightly larger decrease in approval of Ignatieff. This was probably due to the threat of an election that nobody wanted which Ignatieff wisely backed down on. Or it could be due to god knows what…

Who should I send my invoice to?
wilson

We are coming out of this recession, by the beginning of the 3rd Q,
just as PMSH/Flahrety said we would, back in January.
The media/opposition doom and gloom just faded away.

What did Liberals contribute except "Harper gets to wear this recession"..
Then in the last week the House sat, MI makes an attempt to do 'something' so as PMSH doesn't 'wear the recovery'.

It's call 'fair play',
same thing you saw when the coalition tried to seize the government.

Mulletaur

"We are coming out of this recession, by the beginning of the 3rd Q, just as PMSH/Flahrety said we would, back in January."

Um, no we aren't. Try to stick to fact rather than PMO-inspired fantasy.

Wascally Wabbit

Hopefully – the benefit of this up and down is – Michael Ignatieff will dispense with the myriad of advisors and decide what HE wants to do.
If he wants to be perceived as a gentleman among fools and political charlatans – he had better step back – think what he learnt in the mano a mano stuff a couple of weeks ago – and play mean next time!
He should bounce some ideas off Jean Cretien about when to go – and then go for it – issue the platform – that better clearly show he is to the left of Harper – and maybe – riding on the wave of media musings about the lack of democracy in Parliament – and how Harper actually lies about what is legitimate in our parliamentary rules – look at arranging some kind of centre left coalition BEFORE the writ is dropped!

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

how wascally, first tell him to dispense of the political charlatans and then tell him to get some advice from Chretien. Same breath, the old one-two. You wascally wabbit.

Earth Man

the man who stands up first in the House on this issue is the one whose name will be in history books.

William

Where`s Aaron today ?—oh doing a story on Ralph Benmenergui—that figures.
——read an interesting bit earlier about historical voting preferences—-Liberal popular vote was one-million fewer in 2008 then 1974 even though our population is 11 million greater now. It is just getting so difficult to find a reason to vote Liberal.

Dee

"It is just getting so difficult to find a reason to vote Liberal."

One good reason: Stephen Harper.

Anon

I wish I could find that quote I came across recently about pounding it home with any journalist who implies, even unwittingly, that perception is everything. I think about it any time these polls are highlighted. Unless the pollster furnishes survey data as evidence of what motivates the responses they get, the polls mean everything and nothing, except to the margin of voters who will "back a winner" above all else, or who wouldn't be caught dead voting "fringe."
http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

Yes, it's much better to vote for a liar and petty partisan liar isn't it.
http://www.TennisVagabond.com Big Dave S

Bloom County riffin', Kady?
Anon

Harper's not been in public recently. Canadians like that. His party is benefiting from that absence.
PEM

Judging from the numbers, a Liberal arts degree from a Canadian university actually teaches people to vote Liberal, whereas (without being formed by 4 years of uniform Liberal-style politics & moral relativism), people tend to vote Conservative. If the Conservatives want to be successful in the long-run they should drastically shift funding towards community colleges and science degrees. It also wouldn't hurt the economy if citizens could actually use their degrees to get productive jobs.

*note* I'm not against arts degrees in general, just the intellectually dishonest, uniformly liberal garbage that passes for an arts education in most universities.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

Go deeper into the statistics. People have noticed this long enough that they've done research. As it turns out, the people who graduate from university haven't changed their stated political leanings very much from when they entered.

So no, a Liberal Arts degree doesn't teach people to vote Liberal, it simply turns out that wanting to be educated is a Liberal trait.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

You are equating a Liberal Arts degree with being educated. Back to Philosophy 100, thwim!

Charles

The NDP numbers make sense up to about the 18th (moving more or less in tandem with the Liberals), but then there's just a crazy drop without anything happening (to my knowledge) that would explain it. I almost wonder if we're just seeing noise at the end of the data set.
William

And another thing, There seems to be a lack of focus on LIberal journalists and commenters on what is meaningful to voters. All this venom and anger is spewed toward, for example, David Emerson and Mike Duffy, and Why—-because of the sense of entitlement and arrogance that only Liberals should receive appointments.

Get over it—the people don`t care—they do not see the difference between paying Don Newman`s salary for 40 years and paying to keep Duffy in the Senate for a few years.
http://liberalvideodepot.blogspot.com Ted

Seems to make sense to me. The NDP claim that they want to make Parliament work, but then automatically reject anything the Liberals or Conservatives propose. Whatever you think of Harper or Ignatieff, at the end of this session of Parliament, it became completely clear to all that Layton and the NDP are pretty irrelevant to Parliament, or to any discussion of relevant issues dealt with in Parliament.
Mark

I agree with the C-15 comment. Why bother supporting the Liberals if they vote for a right wing crime bill like that. If Ignatieff keeps it up he will loose the confidence of many people who support left leaning social policy combined with right leaning fiscal policies. Harper's religous right Agenda just progressed quite nicely with Iggy's help. I think their are still some genuine liberal minded people in the Senate though who should be able to keep the bill dead until the fall election call. Then it will die. This is why we have a senate folks. Lousy laws of any stripe can be struck down. This bill would be terrible for Canada. The failed policies of the US criminal justice system should not be slipped in. Iggy should understand that many people who dislike Harper dislike him mainly because of his social and foriegn policy.
http://www.rata.ca russell barth

the liberals are spineless fops. the tories passed c-15 because they are Orwellian scum who pander to their mypoic, hateful, stupid, punishment-fetishist voter base. they KNOW canadians are too dumb to understand the 3rd-grade-level math needed to understand prohibition.
the liberals simply don;t have enough respect for canadians and just sort of went along with c-15 to pander to the same votrers.

buy then Mandatory sentences will scare off the mom-'n'-pop pot growers, who represent direct market competition to the gangsters. With the little guys out of the game, the big guys will get more business and profit. This will lead to more violence, which the police and government will use as justification for even more draconian laws, more cops with bigger budgets and more powers, and further suppression of our civil rights and liberties.

The whole thing is a scam designed to make it necessary to hire more cops, build more jails and spend more taxpayers' dollars on a policy that further subsidizes organized crime. The media-addled public is being duped once again.
Charles

True, though the NDP decline seems to coincide with some craziness with the Liberal and Conservative numbers. Maybe NDP voters are moving to the Grits as Grits are moving to the Tories? Or maybe the number of undecided increased, but we're not seeing that, since this is just the decided voters (and numbers add up to 100).
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Kudos, someone has found that there is, after all, a purpose to the Senate.

Shame that the sum total amounts to filibustering by political pork rinds.