Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

If it's Thursday, it must be time for … the latest EKOS weekly tracking poll!

by kadyomalley on Thursday, July 2, 2009 10:03am - 24 Comments

LPC 32.2/CPC 31.0/NDP 16.2/BQ 9/Green11.5

EKOS:

After having taken a

hit with the public over their election threats at

the end of the parliamentary session, the Liberals

have rebounded into the narrowest of leads over

the ruling Conservative Party. This reversal in

fortunes has more to do with the disappearance

of a short-term bump in Conservative support

that occurred at the end of the session than any

change in Liberal fortunes.

After having taken a hit with the public over their election threats at the end of the parliamentary session, the Liberals have rebounded into the narrowest of leads over the ruling Conservative Party. This reversal in fortunes has more to do with the disappearance of a short-term bump in Conservative support that occurred at the end of the session than any change in Liberal fortunes.

Actually, if you check today’s numbers against the results from June 25th, it looks like both parties have fallen off a bit — the Conservatives shedding just over 3% support – from 34.8 to 31.0 — and the Liberals also down from last week, sliding from 32.6 to 32.2. The NDP, meanwhile, crept up nearly two full percentage points, from 14.3 to 16.2; the Greens, meanwhile, soared from 9.3 to 11.5%. What any of this actually means — if it means anything at all — is, alas, unclear.

ITQ would also like to register her deep disappointment over the decision by EKOS to drop the weekday tracking graph, which, during previous weeks, would provide her, and poll junkies like her, with hour after hour of geeky delight as she would attempt to link random current events with rises and falls in the nightly numbers. (Which, she now realizes, may be exactly why they’re no longer offering that particular tasty little datasnack to the public. We are why we can’t have nice things.)

Tags: Ekos, pollistic medicine

More by kadyomalley

Smith

Kady, I believe you are channeling Walt Kelly.
"We are why we can’t have nice things." a great line, pogoesque in its impact.
Joffré

Am I missing something, or isn't the third graph on page three of the poll you linked to the exact daily tracking graph you complained was missing?

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Yes, but it only covers the last three days — check the June 25th report, and you'll see the difference.

Joffré

Well, they didn't include the data from the previous period, but June 25th, 26th and 29th are the only three days this poll was in the field. We have the same amount of data and everything. All their graphs are notably less snazzy, actually, I'm wondering if they had some intern do the reports.

Sean S.

well we know for sure that these numbers mean that the NDP, after 40 years, is finally heading for irrelevance and obscurity…yep, any day now!
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Pollster: Liberals have rebounded into the narrowest of leads over the ruling Conservative Party.

Translation: Statistically, it's a perfect tie.

Pollster: This reversal in fortunes has more to do with the disappearance of a short-term bump in Conservative support that occurred at the end of the session than any change in Liberal fortunes.

Translation: It was a tie back then and it's still a tie now. They've been tied for months. All this horse-race stuff about "narrowest of leads" and "short-term bumps" is basically just filler to cover up the fact that they're tied.

http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com bigcitylib

Tied means Lib minority. Efficiency of the Lib vote, and so forth.

Booyah!

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Needless to say, the "perfect tie" holding pattern will break as soon as the writ is dropped (sometime in 2010). Then we'll find out what voters really think (it seems like most Canadians have tuned out federal politics for the moment).
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Needless to say, the "perfect tie" holding pattern will break as soon as the writ is dropped (sometime in 2010). Then we'll find out what voters really think (it seems like most Canadians have tuned out federal politics, for the moment).
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Needless to say, the "perfect tie" holding pattern will break as soon as the writ is dropped (sometime in 2010). Then we'll find out what voters really think (it seems like most Canadians have tuned out of federal politics, for the moment).
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Needless to say, the "perfect tie" holding pattern will break as soon as the writ is dropped (sometime in 2010). Then we'll find out what voters really think (it seems like most Canadians have tuned out of federal politics for the moment).

Charles

Basically.

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Pollster: Liberals have rebounded into the narrowest of leads over the ruling Conservative Party.

Translation: Statistically, it's a perfect tie.

Pollster: This reversal in fortunes has more to do with the disappearance of a short-term bump in Conservative support that occurred at the end of the session than any change in Liberal fortunes.

Translation: It was a tie back then and it's still a tie now. They've been tied for months. All this horse-race stuff about "narrowest of leads" and "short-term bumps" is basically just filler to cover up the fact that they're tied.
Charles

I'm still intrigued by the NDP's rise to second place in Atlantic Canada, which no longer seems to be a blip. Would love to know how that was broken down to see how much of it was tied to Dexter's big win in Nova Scotia.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

Trying to break out Atlantic Canada from a national poll just doesn't work very well.

And if there is a Dexter "effect" it's because he campaigned as a Red Tory.
Which is the basic default position in Atlantic Canada, whichever party label is
attached to it.

Dee

I just find it amazing that EKOS gets paid to pontificate on the deep meaning of statistical noise. The Libs and Cons were statistically tied last week. And they're tied again this week. In other words, EKOS could have replaced all that inflated news release verbiage with: "Nothing happened." Ho-hum, pass the bbq sauce.

http://intensedebate.com/people/JPro JPro

"Nothing happened."

Ha, now that would be a polling firm I could respect.
Blues Clair

Nice Work If You Can Get It

http://intensedebate.com/people/janfromthebruce janfromthebruce

Kady, you described gains made by the NDP as "crept up" in comparison to gains made by the Greens as "soared." Considering that the NDP gained 1.90 percentage points and the Greens gained 2.2 percentage points, with the overall difference in gains between the two smaller parties as only .3 percentage points, it obviously appears that one is hyping one party's performance gains and under describing the other party's performance gains. .3 would not be considered statistically significant for comparison purposes to merit either remark of these parties performance. So either both parties soared or both parties crept using your lingo.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

1.9 percentage points = 13% gain in popularity for NDP.
2.2 percentage poinst = 23% gain in popularity for Greens.

Crept up might not be the appropriate word for the NDP rise, but becoming 23% more popular in a week? That probably counts as soaring.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

1.9 percentage points = 13% gain in popularity for NDP.
2.2 percentage points = 23% gain in popularity for Greens.

Crept up might not be the appropriate word for the NDP rise, but becoming 23% more popular in a week? That probably counts as soaring.

Dee

The margin of error on the national party preference numbers is +/- 2.3%. So, the new NDP and Greens numbers are also consistent with absolutely nothing changing from last week.

http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

Methinks they poll too, too often. One thing – Harper generally polls better/well when parliament is out.
jarrid

I see nearly every commenter on this thread is a Liberal or left/lib in political orientation.

I also see that not to many people have commented on this thread at all.

Canadians aren't interested in an election at this juncture and so the polls are entirely moot.

Even if Canadians could stomach another election, the Liberals apparently don't have the stomach for one anyways.

I'll refrain from commenting on polls until that changes. Folks, commenting on polls is a dubious exercise at the best of times. Commenting on polls at this point in time is an exercise in insanity.