Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

Since Coyne's on vacation…

by Paul Wells on Friday, July 10, 2009 5:11pm - 27 Comments

…it falls to me to do the pained, more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger gloating he would be doing now if he were on deck:

Understand: there will be no going back from this, for the party or for the country. Whatever the budget’s soothing talk of “temporary” this and “extraordinary” that, and for all its well-mannered charts showing spending obediently returning to its pen, deficits meekly subsiding, multi-billion dollar “investments” repaid in full, we are in fact headed somewhere we have never been before. We are on course towards a massive and permanent increase in the size and scope of government: record spending, sky-high borrowing, and — inevitably — higher taxes…

If everything the budget foretells comes to pass, we might not come out too badly. A $34-billion deficit, after all, is only 2% of GDP, and even four years of deficits, if the budget’s projections hold, would barely budge our debt-to-GDP ratio. But if they do not — if the economy fails to recover on cue; if inflation spikes when it does, and interest rates soon after; if all those billions in new spending, once in place, do not prove so easy to trim back; if the assets the government acquires with all of its borrowed money do not turn out to be worth what they cost — then we will head into the approaching demographic storm loaded down to the gunwhales. It’s a monumental, even reckless gamble…

A. Columnist, Maclean’s, Jan. 29, 2009

And indeed it is so. Why, in no time at all, a five-year timeline for getting out of deficit has gone from a budget-speech promise to an idea derided by Our Economist Prime Minister as “dumb.”

Recall that a few weeks ago, when Michael Ignatieff was still messing with Harper, he put four double-dare deal-breaker questions/demands/ultimata to the big guy. Only one was about improving EI by assigning Pierre Polilievre and Ryan Sparrow to the file (actually, it wasn’t even about that, though that’s the way the Prime Minister heard it); another was a demand/question/ultimatum that Harper explain how he planned to dig out of these immense deficits.

Now we have our answer. He won’t even bother to try. I believe it was Chantal Hébert who first wrote that, while many Canadian politicians claim to be socially progressive and fiscally conservative, Harper is turning out to be the opposite on both scales.

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  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Douglass Douglass

    "He won’t even bother to try. "
    It's terrifying to hear it so plainly, but I believe you both are right.

  • Dot

    Does this mean you will follow the lead of Don Newman and interview/debate with yourself on the vlog?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

      I believe I'll hold off. But if you like that sort of thing, this should tide you over:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFE2CCfAP1o

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

        That Rose piece is priceless.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Geiseric Geiseric

      If you don't mind McVety ranting about it, they still give grants for that sort of thing.

  • Canuckistanian

    "…it falls to me to do the pained, more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger…"

    gotta love that about AC.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

    "while many Canadian politicians claim to be socially progressive and fiscally conservative, Harper is turning out to be the opposite on both scales."

    It is a great line, whoever came up with it.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

      If someone could explain what is so "progressive" about theft, no scratch that, MASSIVE theft from future generations…

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Lord_Bob Lord Bob

        Each generation will have progressively less money than the previous?

        I can't believe I'm saying this, but every day in every way I miss Paul Martin more and more.

        • Matt in Vancouver

          Paul Martin? Nah! He's the one who started this latest round of drunken sailor-esque spending when he was PM.

          I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm starting to miss Jean Chretien (with Martin on a cabinet leash) more and more.

          My only concern with throwing out these Paris-Hiltons-with-daddy's-credit-carders is whether or not it will actually be any better with any of the other options running the show. I think our elected officials of all stripes have completely bought into the neo-keynesian mantra of mortgaging our future away.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

            I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm starting to miss Jean Chretien (with Martin on a cabinet leash) more and more.

            I have a feeling that duo won't be teaming up again. Just a hunch, mind you…

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

    See, from the blog headline I had my money on you subbing Coyne v. Wells with a karaoke bit. Yourself singing Billie Jean into the computer or something like that…

  • Wayne

    I am trying wrap my head around fiscally progressive and socially conservative = hmmm I kind of like it Paul it works. As to what is happening in the world right now of course it doesn't fit in well with past narratives – when we lost more than 30% of the global value in all of our economies and all at once literally overnight a few months ago the world changed, the solutions will be new and different if at all and the media is going to have find a new narrative! all bets are off all models wrong and all methods of predictive analuysis are obsolete (you should see the innards of provincial gov't and so called financial experts running around in circles in the prov gov'ts right now as nothing adds up and all the numbers are basically imaginary when it comes to projections and everyone knows it but no one wants to talk about it ) -clinging to old modes of thought is redundant and as they say adapt or die …

    • Scott M.

      So… you're saying fiscally progressive and socially conservative is a good mix?

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/futurepm matthew

        It is if you're a fan of a particular brand of Harper/Bush-style conservatism.

        Of course, if you like government being run by people whose whole ideology doesn't run contrary to the point of the institution, then you probably won't. But people like Wayne are fun with that kind of intellectual discordance.

  • Mike T.

    To be more like Mr. Coyne, please begin your posts by describing a number of important arguments against your point of view as "not the issue".

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

    Gee, will Mr. Coyne be even righter ( he he ) if inflation and interest rates actually do increase ?

  • –dB

    I hope someone has the courtesy to ask the Prime Minister what his policy prescription is, and ensure he doesn't begin his answer with, "Well, I'll tell you what we're NOT going to do, is…"

    Can I place my bets on supply-side craziness now? And if so, what odds will you give me?

  • Stephen

    while many Canadian politicians claim to be socially progressive and fiscally conservative, Harper is turning out to be the opposite on both scales

    Not sure how the word "opposite" is being used here.

    There's nothing progressive–socially or otherwise–about being fiscally and economically irresponsible.

    I'd say that Stephen Harper–incompetent and dishonourable–is being both socially regressive and economically reckless.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/truemuse truemuse

    I am loaded to the gunwhales with Admiration for Andrew Coyne. His monumental (even reckless) prediction, however "temporal" is "extra-ordinary", like Him. If everything He foretells comes to pass (but even if it doesn't) still, Indeed, It Is So.

  • orval

    By responding to Page like he did, he set a trap for Ignatieff. Page's argument is "this deficit is sooooo big, we'll have to raise taxes or cut spending or both." Basically what Ignatieff said at Cambridge, Ont recently (i.e. the"gaffe"). Harper has called the Page/Ignatieff position "dumb." If Ignatieff defends Page, Harper can say "you see, he wants to raise taxes." If Ignatieff doesn't defend Page, Harper can say "you see, Ignatieff actually likes and supports my view, so why change?"

    Either way, Ignatieff is euchred, again.

    • RayK

      I think that's largely right.

      I think Harper went a little over the top in seeming to criticize Page, but the basic idea seems to be to say "No matter how long it takes we're going to grow ourselves out of these deficits. Michael Ignatieff can blame us for taking on a little debt if he wants, but then he has to propose an alternative."

  • john g

    "since Coyne's on vacation" my muppet ass. He hasn't blogged anything since May anyways, don't pretend you're covering his vacation.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

      Well, there was the little event of the car accident that nearly killed him. I trust it is indeed just a vacation, and that all is well.

      • john g

        Really? I had no idea. I hope Coyne is all right and that no-one was offended by my comment.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

          Oh have no fear john g. He wasn't even scratched. New car didn't fare so well. Continue as before.

  • Katherine

    *blink* One knows partisanship has overwhelmed all other considerations when Canadian Liberals are sounding like American Republicans. Something has changed since Harper's early statements on a deficit: through no fault of Canada's, the world has entered a deep recession.

    What would you have Harper do? Raise taxes and slash spending during a recession, purposely defeating the purpose of the stimulus? Then you could happily condemn him as the next RB Bennet. I am not a conservative – I am a New Democrat – but a little intellectual honestly would be appreciated.

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