Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Can't catch Nortel in a bottle

by Paul Wells on Wednesday, July 29, 2009 2:01pm - 34 Comments

Can't catch Nortel in a bottleIt’s at times like this, with the future of Nortel’s coveted wireless technology up for grabs and billions of dollars at stake, that I like to recall the wise counsel of old John C. Lobb. He was a jowly fellow who became the president of Northern Electric, Nortel’s predecessor, in 1971. He picked that dusty old company up by the scruff of its neck and shook it wide awake. Profits tripled in his first year and doubled again in his second. He used to ask employees what the company made. They’d tell him it made telephone switching equipment. He’d bellow, “We don’t make switching, God damn it! We make money.”

I love those great Canadian success stories. John Lobb, incidentally, was a lawyer from Minneapolis who ran Crucible Steel of Pittsburgh before he moved north, and who died in Pennsylvania.

All of which teaches us two lessons that may be appropriate to the current fuss over ownership of Nortel assets.

First, Nortel has flown international flags of convenience many times in its long corporate life. It would be easier to get swept up in the sudden mania for “keeping Nortel Canadian” if the company had been more thoroughly Canadian for more of that time, and if the advantage to Canadians of Canadian ownership were clearer.

Second, it is never wise, when managing in a fast-moving environment, to fixate on the product. Lobb’s lusty joke about money stretched things only a little: Northern Electric’s most important product wasn’t switches in 1971, it was communications expertise. And despite today’s bidding war and the resulting yelps of outrage from Research in Motion CEO Jim Balsillie, who feels he’s been unfairly shut out, the most important asset left at Nortel isn’t its next-generation LTE wireless technology. The most important asset at Nortel is its people. And they can work anywhere.

Yet there’s a clamour for the federal government to Do Something about the Nortel fire sale, and in particular about RIM’s inability to get in on the bidding process alongside Sweden’s Ericsson and other foreign firms. This will probably have some effect. Lord knows the Harper government is attentive to clamours.

There would certainly be precedent. Barely 15 months ago the feds blocked the sale of MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates’ space division to an American firm. “We need to own our technology and the intellectual property that comes with it,” Jim Prentice, Tony Clement’s predecessor as Industry Minister, said then. “If we do not do this, we will not reap the benefits of our work and our investments.”

Well, surely if reaping the benefits of our work was enough to justify blocking a tech firm’s selloff then, it will be enough now. All the more so since the defenders of a Canadian Rump Nortel have come up with another argument: The government bailed out GM and Chrysler, so why can’t they bail out Nortel too?

Let’s take these arguments in order. First, if you must know, I have a lot of sympathy for the argument that having a branch plant of a foreign-held firm is not as beneficial for a county as having the head office. Evidence suggests this is more than nationalist fantasy. The latest report by the Council of Canadian Academies shows that Canadian-held multinationals, a rare species indeed, perform more R&D in Canada than do Canadian branches of foreign-held multinationals.

But it’s simply not obvious that Nortel’s LTE technology is vital to RIM’s success. Indeed, given RIM’s tardy entry into the bidding war and the extended vacation Balsillie himself took to shop for a hockey team, it doesn’t even appear to have been obvious to RIM. RIM’s direct competitors, Apple, Google, Palm and Microsoft, don’t own their own wireless technology and aren’t in a hurry to get some.

That’s at least partly because the relevant patents won’t be worth much for long. This field changes fast: LTE is the third generation of wireless technology in seven years. While a technology is hot, it’ll be licensed to all comers. And while it’s hot, engineers around the world will be scrambling to come up with the next generation. Rigging the game so RIM gets LTE will give RIM barely any advantage this year, and none at all in three years when the next generation comes on line.

That next generation will come from one place: the minds of smart engineers, prized and prodded while they try to come up with the next game-changing idea. Which brings us to why Nortel isn’t — must not be — like GM. The only argument for saving the car companies was that their employees couldn’t go anywhere else. That’s a risible argument when it comes to telecomms engineers, and not just in the abstract. The economy absorbed previous waves of Nortel layoffs with little trouble. RIM hired them, or they started their own companies. When I visited Sweden in 2004 I visited all sorts of start-up companies. In every case, the founder was an Ericsson engineer who’d been left to his or her own devices when that company laid off thousands in 2000. Policy wonks have spent decades wishing the fisheries and car plants were staffed with superbly adaptable, highly-educated knowledge workers. Then they wouldn’t need bailouts. That’s Nortel.

If Tony Clement determines that RIM was unfairly left out of the Nortel bidding process, he should get it back in. But then its bid should stand or fall on the merits. The best way to ensure competitiveness is to ensure competition.

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  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Harbles Harbles

    I have heard it said (and I repeat unsubstantiated rumor here) that Rim is not after the wireless technology as such but the patents that Nortel holds that will come up for bid in future sell offs. This noise is just to set the stage for that.

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Harbles Harbles

    I have heard it said that Rim is not after the wireless technology as such but the patents that Nortel holds that will come up for bid in future sell offs. This noise is just to set the stage for that.

    • Mulletaur

      If that were a profitable proposition, RIM should have put in a serious bid from the beginning rather than playing the nationalist card to try to get the feds to bankroll them. I may be wrong, but I think that's Wells' point.

  • Mulletaur

    "The best way to ensure competitiveness is to ensure competition."

    Yup.

    • RayK

      This is just wrong headed.

      If we want Canadian companies to be "competitive"–i.e. profitable–then we need market power, not more competition from others. Competition is what's best for the market place as a whole, it's NOT what's best for an individual business or country. That's why don't see US insurance companies encouraging more competition from, say, a public option.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Lord_Bob Lord Bob

        There's no such thing as a fair competition between a private company and a public company, because the private company is not bankrolled by force of law from the entire taxpaying population and responsible to elected political masters rather than those hired to make money.

      • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Lord_Bob Lord Bob

        There's no such thing as a fair competition between a private company and a state-run company, because the private company is not bankrolled by force of law from the entire taxpaying population and responsible to elected political masters rather than those hired to make money.

        • Matthew Fletcher

          You're right, that's really not fair to the public company.

      • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/JustinWordswrth JustinWordswrth

        Ah, yes. You want the sort of competition in which one goes uncontested. That's called Olympic Women's Hockey.

        • Mulletaur

          LOL, nice. Careful about walking down any dark alleys where our female hockey team members may be lurking.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/GeoffM GeoffM

    Remember how the big hurdle to free trade with Europe was the provinces? And how Harper has been scolding the Americans about protectionism? Har har.

    Has anyone asked Nortel employees which overlord they prefer? If they even care? As a working professional, I always assess these management changes by a simple standard: can I maneuver a summer in Stockholm out of this? Vs a summer in Waterloo? Whatever I decide, I like to think the Government of Canada is willing to willing to piss off our trade partners or screw over shareholders in consideration of my travel plans.

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/GeoffM GeoffM

    Remember how the big hurdle to free trade with Europe was the provinces? And how Harper has been scolding the Americans about protectionism? Har har.

    Has anyone asked Nortel employees which overlord they prefer? If they even care? As a working professional, I always assess these management changes by a simple standard: can I maneuver a summer in Stockholm out of this? Vs a summer in Waterloo? Whatever I decide, I like to hope the Government of Canada is willing to piss off our trade partners or screw over shareholders in consideration of my travel plans.

  • RayK

    The problem with your argument is captured by Jim Prentice's statement above (though Prentice had it backwards): we need to own our intellectual property so that we own technology that comes with it.

    Patents are, by definition, an anti-market device that gives the patent holder monopoly rights over a non-rival, non-excludable product in order to create an artificial market for intellectual property and thus encourage investment in the development of new technologies. In other words, patents are a necessary evil–necessary to make investment in research and development profitable but evil because they do so by creating monopoly control over the inventions they cover. In that monopoly environment the normal rules of the market–and trade–cease to apply.

  • RayK

    In this case, the patent holder will charge monopoly–i.e. above market–rates for licensing its patents. That means fewer outside competitors will be able to make a profit selling products based on those patents than would otherwise be the case. That in turn leaves a much bigger chunk of the market up for grabs by the actual patent holder. Let's get that bigger chunk of the market!

    Furthermore, your argument that technologies like LTE will soon be obsolete themselves is true, but largely irrelevant. Nortel holds the patents on many of the underlying inventions that will be used as the basis for technologies yet to come and thus pay dividends for (technological) generations. This is analogous to inventing the unicycle but as a result owning the patent on the wheel. It's the patent on the wheel that's gonna make you all your money.

    That being said, let's have more pieces like this one and more discussion on these issues. We need to craft a vision the 21st century economy and how we understand the "market" for intellectual property will play a major role in that discussion.

  • shouldIsellyourwheat

    The general ignorance of the media and politicians with regards to Nortel is stunning. John Manley was sitting on the BOD of Nortel and approved Mike Zafirovski's business plan of cost cutting and shipping Ottawa jobs to Turkey, cost cutting and shipping Ottawa jobs to Mexico, cost cutting and shipping Ottawa jobs to China.

    RIM primarily wants two things from Nortel
    1) The LTE patents — most important
    2) The LTE engineers — less important

    In the current auction of the CDMA/LTE division, CDMA patents (old technology) and licenses to use LTE patents were supposedly included (but not the LTE patents themselves). All the LTE engineers were "included"…included meaning if the acquiring company wanted them..

    The way the Nortel auctions are structured if RIM bid now to get the LTE engineers, it would disqualify itself from a future auction for the LTE patents, which is why it is upset.

    RIM's strategy then is to position itself to make sure it gets the LTE patents, which will come up for auction at some future date. By making a fuss now, it activates the clueless media and politicians, and waves a red flag against anyone (i.e. foreign coimpany) who might want to bid in the future auction for the LTE patents. It also serves as a big advertisiing campaign directed at Nortel engineers that RIM wants them in the future when RIM wins the auction for the LTE patents.

    The Ericsson bid is actually better for saving more jobs in Canada because RIM wasn't particularly interested in the legacy parts of the current auction. Nokia Siemens would have even been better for Canada than the Ericsson bid in the long run, but Ericsson won the auction.

    So from Canada's best interests, the government should okay the Ericsson takeover, but now be prepared to intervene for Canada's and RIM's benefit when the future auction for Nortel's LTE patents occurs.

    • G Betts

      Good read, with a smart solution. Put the border around the patents.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

      Nicely explained. And also answers why RIM went in and refused to sign the NDA's required to actually get in the auction.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/dilip dilip

      Why exactly was the NSN bid better than Ericsson? Nokia Siemens Networks talked about picking up 850 employees vs. 2500 from Ericsson.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

    Then again, it seems the feds are "bankrolling" everybody …..

    http://thestar.blogs.com/recession/2009/07/wtf.ht…

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

    Good article.

    I'm in complete agreement that the only thing that matters is the people, and the people are smart and versatile enough to land on their feet. The problem is, they may go elsewhere (i.e. the US). The last time this happened en mass was when Avro Canada got wiped out. The result was the total destruction of the Canadian aerospace industry as most of our talent moved to NASA.

    I'm not in favour of bailouts (even for the less versatile auto workers) since I believe just about anyone can adapt when the chips are down. But bailouts aside, there is good reason to think that something, whatever that may be, needs to be done to keep these guys from leaving the country and taking a good chunk of Canada's telecom expertise with them.

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

    Good article.

    I'm in complete agreement that the only thing that matters is the people, and the people are smart and versatile enough to land on their feet. The problem is, they may go elsewhere (i.e. the US). The last time this happened en masse was when Avro Canada got wiped out. The result was the total destruction of the Canadian aerospace industry as most of our talent moved to NASA.

    I'm not in favour of bailouts (even for the less versatile auto workers) since I believe just about anyone can adapt when the chips are down. But bailouts aside, there is good reason to think that something, whatever that may be, needs to be done to keep these guys from leaving the country and taking a good chunk of Canada's telecom expertise with them.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/DeliciousLattes DeliciousLattes

    I agree with almost all of this. Shouldn't this be a matter for the Competition Commissioner rather than the Minister of Industry?

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

    Nortel: 14 Comments. Wafergate: several hundred comments. It's a sad little world we live in. For the record, I though Wells's piece was excellent, and I completely agree that the most important asset at Nortel was its skilled employees, and the RIM bid should stand or fall on its own merits.

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

    Nortel: 14 Comments. Wafergate: several hundred comments. It's a sad little world we live in. For the record, I thought Wells's piece was excellent, and I completely agree that the most important asset at Nortel was its skilled employees, and the RIM bid should stand or fall on its own merits.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/macf macf

      I'd rather read 14 quality comments as opposed to 100+ of the other kind

      • Mulletaur

        Yes, but CR and agree more or less agree on the issues raised by Wells here : we can have so much more fun poking sticks in each other's eyes over Wafergate. Or Wafergate-Gate.

  • http://theplaceofbiff.blogspot.com biff

    Hey, we have laws that protect intellectual property rights. Intellectual property, is…well… property, and therefore cannot be "stolen".

    Obviously, this is grounds for greater public control over private businesses.

    Additionally, I like to keep my grass cut a little longer on hot days so the lawn doesn't dry out. Ergo, I must be in favour of more government controls over our economy.

    To some, all roads lead to more government.

    • Matthew Fletcher

      Actually, it sounds like to you all roads lead to more government.

  • andy

    "The best way to ensure competitiveness is to ensure competition."

    Just sayin'…Isn't that actually a pretty good argument for having propped up GM and Chrysler (esp. since Japan was pouring out big $$$ to prop up Nissan and Mazda)? To ensure competition in the auto industry? If a GM-led oligopoly wasn't in consumers' best interests, why would a Toyota-led oligopoly have been better?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

      Actually, it is an argument for letting GM and Chrysler fail and having their assets sold to others who think they can take a run at Toyota, not by allowing them to compete on the back of the taxpayer.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/icenfire icenfire

    This Nortel debate just bugs the heck out of me!

    1. Nortel laid off most of it's best R&D minds in the earlier layoffs offs in 2000-2002.

    2. Nortel was in the business of buying up Patents in it's run up to $120/share (now $1200/share). They didn't bring most of those devices to market. They did hold up all those Patents/devices as the reason for everyone to invest in the stock… but in truth they were worthless. (This certainly isn't the Avro-arrow folks!!)

    3. Nortel has had it's bail-out. Industry Canada or whatever the name was at the time guaranteed millions of dollars of loans to keep Nortel in business.

    As a taxpayer, lets sell the company for as much as we can get so we may get back some of the money for the loan guarantees that are already on the books. Let's free up all the R&D minds that are left in the company to do their own research, and Canada will be far ahead of where we are now.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

      Excellent points all. But what do we do to keep whatever talent is left (after the 2000 bubble-burst layoffs) in country?

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/dilip dilip

    You may be right that the next generation of technology will come from the engineers, but the corporate structure itself, and those patents are important to the development too.

    The patents available today allow for either lower licensing costs for the LTE handsets that RIM would like to make, or allow for revenues (if properly exploited) that help pay for the research that will develop the next generation technologies. Telecommunications is not like software in that the next big thing is very hard to develop out of a small company with limited resources. 2 guys in a basement can develop the next big social media sensation, but the testing equipment and laboratories needed to test ideas in the wireless (and the optical) networking fields put this sort of research in the hands of the big players.

    The reason you want to keep the head office in Canada is that big research projects are not send to far off research labs so much as they are given the lab next to the head office. If we want the jobs associated with cutting edge telecommunications we may need to keep a head office or two.

  • g. edwards

    nortel is just a tax rite-off for rim they get the patents they want plus the tax write off. the canadians lose taxes . rim wins.

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