Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

UPDATED: Those tough-on-crime Quebecers

by Paul Wells on Thursday, August 6, 2009 11:42am - 105 Comments

(The UPDATE at the bottom of this post goes out, with all my love, to everyone who said I was extrapolating too much from one poll. – pw)

ITQ has already told you in a separate post about the election-related results of the new Ekos poll (hint: not breathtaking) and the CBC is going with the old ask-a-technical-question-to-a-general-audience angle, but I was struck by the results Ekos got when they went fishing on another issue area, crime. (Full poll results are under “Related” on this page.)

Crime’s not really the issue area that normally turns my policy-wonk crank, but in late June, Colleague Deux Maudits Anglais (Toronto Branch) noted some pretty lurid direct-mail pieces the Conservatives were sending to Bloc ridings accusing the Bloc of being the only party to vote against “minimal sentences for criminals who go after children.” “I guess the Conservatives figure they can’t do much worse in Quebec so they might as well go whole-hog on the gutter politics,” Colleague DMA (TB) wrote. “There’s already a chasm between the Tories and Quebecers when it comes to all this “tough on crime” nonsense.”

Let’s go to the Ekos poll. Some of it supports the idea that Quebec is a — what’s a novel way to put this? — distinct society when it comes to perception of crime. Quebecers are more likely than in any other region to perceive crime levels as decreasing over the past decade (30.1% in Quebec vs. a 26.1% national average) and less likely (38.8% vs. 47.7%) to believe crime is increasing. (Saskatchewan and Manitoba, polled as one region, are the anti-Quebec on this axis: least likely to believe crime is decreasing and most likely to believe it’s increasing.)

But what should governments do about crime? Ekos asked respondents what they feel is “the best way to adress violent crime in Canada,” and gave four options: Longer jail terms, more cops, more emphasis on rehabilitation, and greater emphasis on programs to prevent crime and deal with its social causes. Bloc voters — both those who say they voted Bloc in 2008 and the slightly different sample who expect to vote Bloc in the next election — are more likely than the average voter to support longer jail terms (36.4% vs. 33.1%). So were Quebecers generally (37.9% vs. 33.1%). Quebec respondents were also less likely to support crime prevention and social-causes approaches (29.3% vs. 32.6%).

In fact, Quebec leads the country in support for longer jail terms, and Quebec respondents’ view of prevention and social work more closely resembles the view of respondents in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta than the far more prevention-oriented respondents in Ontario and British Columbia. This attitude seems to be led by Quebecers outside Montreal, although Montreal respondents were less likely than Ottawans, Torontonians and Vancouverites to support a social approach to crime and more likely than Ottawans and Torontonians to support longer jail terms.

Finally, Ekos analyzed these results by the language respondents chose to take the poll questions. French-speaking respondents were markedly likelier to support longer jail terms (38.1% vs. 31.6%) and markedly less likely to support a social response (29.4% vs. 33.5%) than English-speaking respondents.

I have never seen a poll on public attitudes toward crime that did not produce similar results in Quebec, and I have been following the polling data on attitudes toward crime for more than a decade, beginning when Allan Rock was the justice minister and he was trying to resist a panicky get-tough attitude by the Bloc Québécois during the worst of the Quebec biker wars. You’ll note that when Colleague Phil wanted to demonstrate a “chasm between Tories and Quebecers” on crime in the post I link above, he linked to an article from last autumn’s election that quotes only Quebecers who teach criminology at universities or write editorials for newspapers. Polling data consistently demonstrates that on perceptions of the appropriate response to crime, the most easily demonstrable chasm is between Quebecers who write editorials for a living and Quebecers who don’t.

What’s it all mean? The Conservatives still have a tough row to hoe in Quebec. I would discourage them from counting on major seat gains there in the next election, although I suspect they don’t need me to tell them that.

But the last Ekos poll before they started letter-bombing Bloc ridings with their mailers was released on June 18. It showed the Conservatives at 14.8% in Quebec, the Liberals at 31.2%, the NDP at 9.6% and the Bloc at 35.6%. Today’s Ekos shows the Conservatives up 4.6 points at 19.4%, the Liberals steady at 31.0%, the NDP up 4.4 points at 14.0%, and the Bloc down 5.7 points at 29.9%. That puts the Conservatives back close to the score that allowed them to hold 10 Quebec seats last October, after months of truly dismal support. It also puts the Bloc well below the lowest level of support they have received in any federal election since 1993.

UPDATE:

From L’actualité, March 2005: “Some questions traditionally assciated with the right in Europe, the United States and the rest of Canada — including security and immigration — are nevertheless almost absent from the political discourse in Quebec. On the right as on the left, preference is given to rehabilitation of criminals, especially young offenders, rather than coercion. And immigration is believed to be necessary to counteract the effects of an aging population and low birthrate.

“Yet these two themes preoccupy Quebecers. According to the CROP-l’Actualité poll, 83% support heavier criminal penalties; 75% want more rigorous controls over immigration. … ‘This could also be a reflection of a profound gap between the official discourse and what people think in their households,’ suggests Jean-Herman Guay, professor of political science at l’Université de Sherbrooke.”

From Le Devoir, November 2007: (After noting that Conservative environmental policy and the Afghanistan war were hurting the party’s support in Quebec) “The Conservatives nevertheless receive the support of a majority of Quebecers on two other files. In fact, 62% of respondents approve the recognition of the Québécois nation… the crime bill is also supported by Quebecers in a proportion of 46% against 36% who say they are dissatisfied by it.”

Léger Marketing poll, March 2002 (.pdf): “More than Eight Canadians out of Ten Find that the Judicial System is not Strict Enough When it Comes to Crimes of a Sexual Nature
“84% of Canadians believe that the judicial system is not strict enough in cases of rape and
crimes of a sexual nature, while 10% find it strict enough and 1% find it too strict.
“Moreover, 83% of the population feels that the judicial system also is not strict enough when it
comes to cases of pedophilia, while 10% find it just strict enough and 1% too strict.
“When it comes to both of these types of sexual crimes, it is mostly in Quebec that the judicial
system is deemed not strict enough with 91% and 90% respectively holding this view….
“Question: In your view, is the justice system TOO STRICT, JUST STRICT ENOUGH or NOT STRICT ENOUGH
in cases of…

“…rape and sexual crimes? (Canadian average, 84% reply ‘not strict enough;’ highest provincial average response is Quebec, 91%)

“… acts of pedophilia? (Canadian average, 83% reply ‘not strict enough;’ highest provincial average response is Quebec, 93%)”

(This Léger poll also showed support was higher in Quebec than in any other region for abolishing parole for violent offenders; abolishing parole, period; systematically castrating pedophiles; systematically castrating sexual offenders in general; and making prisoners pay the cost of their incarceration. The only such extraordinarily harsh measure that was not supported more strongly by Quebec respondents than by respondents in other regions was for the death penalty for murders where the victim was a police officer. – pw)

And one final word.

On just about all of these questions, I prefer prevention and social approaches that make crime a less attractive behaviour in general, instead of harsher penalties. I am, and have been for a long time, very nearly as soft as soft can be on crime matters. I am, for instance, an advocate of giving judges plenty of latitude to decide sentences, because judges know the particulars of each case in a way legislators can’t.

I am, however, unable to ignore or blithely argue away the inconvenient evidence that a hell of a lot of people disagree with me. There’s a gap between what I wish were true, and what is. Shrinking that gap is the very stuff of politics; ignoring it would be some other stuff entirely.

Tags: Crime, Ekos, polls are for dogs, Quebec

More by Paul Wells

Witness Protection

I would be very hesitant to attribute a marginal boost in the Conservatives poling numbers in Quebec to that disgusting mailer they sent out about the Bloc. Classic case of mistaking correlation with causation. A much more likely explanation is the same trends we've seen in the rest of the country. Namely that the Liberals lost a few points to the benefit of the Conservatives when Ignatieff wavered over whether or not to defeat the govt over EI.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

Sure, whatever. All I know is that the confident prediction a month ago was that those mailers would dig the Conservatives into an even deeper hole, and it doesn't seem to have managed to do that.

Of course, perhaps the Conservatives would be at 40% in Quebec if they hadn't sent those mailers out. I can buy that. I'm left wondering why Quebecers consistently, over many years, report higher support for "tough on crime" measures than Canadians in other jurisdictions do.

http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

You seem a little surlier than usual lately…something grinding your gears?

Kaplan

Are there still no comments on his posting about the NAC (or whatever it was)?

That could be the culprit.

Derek Pearce

What I'd like to know, is why do Quebecers report higher support for "tough on crime" measures while at the same time <i/> perceiving the crime rate to be falling? That's interesting.

sbt

"A much more likely explanation is the same trends we've seen in the rest of the country. Namely that the Liberals lost a few points to the benefit of the Conservatives when Ignatieff wavered over whether or not to defeat the govt over EI."

In what world does Ignatieff's waffling over EI cause Bloc support to drop?
Davey

Liberals lost no points so the "Iggy wavering" does not hold water. The BQ lost points so maybe pointing out their weakness did work.

matt

Perhaps not causation, but interesting. Is there a rural/urban split for the Quebec results? I wonder if you'd get a more law and order approach from rural Quebecers and a more sissy-pants "nothing a little youth counselling won't fix" approach from urbanistas, as you would expect to see in Ontario as well.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

Ekos pulls out separate numbers for Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary; the results are pretty consistently less tough-on-crime for Montreal than the broader Quebec numbers, but Ekos didn't break a "rural Quebec" or "rest-of-Quebec" figure out for these questions. Even then, Montreal respondents, as I've noted above, are kind of in the middle of the country in their attitudes, and markedly less social-response-oriented than Ottawans and Torontonians.
Witness Protection

Beats me, and doesn't jibe with what I hear when I speak with people or the dominant media discourse. In my experience Quebecers often define themselves by contrast with the Americans (like other Canadians, only more so). I would think there would be a natural tendency to want to take a different approach on crime than the Americans.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

Do you normally have these conversations with Quebecers who live more than three kilometres from Parc Lafontaine? I seem to have read somewhere that there are some Quebecers who actually like to spend part of their winter vacations in the United States.

Witness Protection

No Paul. I talk exclusively to bohemians who live in the Plateau and shun my relatives in the hinterlands. You are so perceptive.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

Goodness.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

There are people in the world who live more than three kilometres from Parc Lafontaine?

http://intensedebate.com/people/sea_n_mountains sea_n_mountains

There is a Parc Lafontaine?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

LOL, that's the true voice of the Main!
http://intensedebate.com/people/sea_n_mountains sea_n_mountains

lol. nice.

Blammo

Whatever Quebeckers' response when asked about tougher sentencing for crime, it's obviously not a critical determinant when they mark their X at the ballot box. Their fave parties over the last umpteen elections have been the Bloc and Libs, neither of whom cloak themselves in the 'tough on crime' dress. Maybe Quebeckers don't really care that much about crime.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Great piece! Way to debunk everybody's preconceptions about Quebecois and crime.

I wonder if the Bloc is significantly to the left of many in their own base. At the provincial level, many souverainistes were put off by the sharp leftward drift of the PQ under Boisclair. I'm sure that on the federal level, many conservative-leaning souverainistes feel similarly disenfranchised. Perhaps this is the basis of the Tories' new Quebec strategy: go after these traditional Bloc voters. Duceppe could face a two-front war against the federalistes in the next election!

sbt

"I wonder if the Bloc is significantly to the left of many in their own base."

In a word, yes. The main thing that keeps the Bloc together is the pro-sovereignty agenda. Being a sovereigntist doesn't make you a leftist.

"Perhaps this is the basis of the Tories' new Quebec strategy: go after these traditional Bloc voters."

New Quebec strategy? That's what open federalism and Quebecois nation resolution was all about. The Tories are just trying to slowly rebuild their shattered Quebec base that fell apart during the last election.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Agreed, but maybe this time they are targeting conservative-leaning Bloc voters directly, through social policy, rather than using feel-good nation resolutions and exorbitant federal bribes.

In Quebec, the Conservatives have already been painted thousands of times as mouth-breathing right-wing extremists, so it's not like the Conservatives have anything to lose when they send out those lurid direct-mails hammering the Bloc on crime issues. They're just playing to type. And maybe it could work out for them (or at least allow them to retain their ten seats.)

http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

I've always thought of 'tough-on-crime' vs. 'not-tough-on-crime' as one of the more unnatural "left" vs. "right" dividers. It's not a complete anomaly…but to me the dichomoty is less pure than being fiscally left or right and socially left or right.

Clearly tough-on-crime is a Conservative stance…I'm just not sure it's a right-wing one.

Examining the Ekos options:

Longer jail terms, more cops, more emphasis on rehabilitation, and greater emphasis on programs to prevent crime and deal with its social causes. <i/>!

I think you could be a member of any party or put yourself anywhere on the spectrum and believe that all four options are necessary and that a portfolio approach is best.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

I've always thought of 'tough-on-crime' vs. 'not-tough-on-crime' as one of the more unnatural "left" vs. "right" dividers. It's not a complete anomaly…but to me the dichomoty is less pure than being fiscally left or right and socially left or right.

Clearly tough-on-crime is a Conservative stance…I'm just not sure it's a right-wing one.

Examining the Ekos options:

Longer jail terms, more cops, more emphasis on rehabilitation, and greater emphasis on programs to prevent crime and deal with its social causes.

I think you could be a member of any party or put yourself anywhere on the spectrum and believe that all four options are necessary and that a portfolio approach is best.

Orson Bean

"Clearly tough-on-crime is a Conservative stance…I'm just not sure it's a right-wing one."

Yup. Agreed. Just ask some NDP-supporting soccer mom in a minivan what she thinks we should do with child molesters. I don't think she'd advocate giving them hugs and empathy.

This goes to one of the huge myths that prevails out there in many political quarters, i.e., the myth that all NDP voters, or all left-leaning voters, are social liberals. Complete and utter crap. Especially when you get outside of our inner cities. The (excellent) Canadian Election Study done on the 1993 federal election was compelling proof of this, as it demonstrated that there was a huge movement of voters in Western Canada (especially in BC, Sask & Man) over from the NDP to Reform.

http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

I remember attending an all candidates debate in London North Centre when I was at Western – Nancy Branscombe was the Canadian Alliance candidate, Joe Fontana for the Liberals and two other women (one NDP one PC – I forget their names).

Someone asked all of them to say if they were pro-life or pro-choice. The only one who did not say pro-choice was the NDP candidate – she was pro-life…because she was catholic. It was a good political lesson for me.

Orson Bean

Another example of that was the fact that THE most prominent pro-life (or anti-abortion, depending on your outlook) federal MP for many years was a Liberal Party MP from an urban riding, namely Tom Wappel. Other more socially liberal members of the Liberal Party conveniently forgot about or ignored this fact (sort of like your crazy uncle that you've locked in the attic), while claiming that the Tories were a grave threat to women's right to choose.
matt

Because I live in London and the 2000 election was the first one i voted in here I had to go get the data. NanBran is now angling to run for Mayor, but may pull the trigger only if the incumbent does not run again.

London North Centre/
London-Centre-Nord

Joe Fontana (Lib.) ** 22 795
Nancy Branscombe (Alliance) 9 062
Lorie Johnson (P.C./P.-C.) 7 305
Colleen Redmond (N.D.P./N.P.D.) 3 936
Jeremy McNaughton (G.P./P.V.) 681
Tim Berg (M.P./P.M.) 453
Albert Smith (M.-L.) 65

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

Interesting.

Has crime actually decreased in Quebec? Or is that plurality perception just ignorance?
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

Interesting.

Has crime actually decreased in Quebec? Or is that perception by many Quebecois just ignorance?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

There is no necessary connection between crime rate trends and approach to crime. It can relate to long-held perceptions on inadequacies within the justice system (e.g. Canadian judicial system has always been too easy on the worst offenders). It can also relate to a perceived trend in the justice system (e.g. the Courts continue to get more lenient toward the worst offenders).

scf

Fantastic post Paul, this is one of your strengths, debunking the "conventional wisdom" that is demonstrably false, or at least lacking evidence.
I especially like the line "Polling data consistently demonstrates that on perceptions of the appropriate response to crime, the most easily demonstrable chasm is between Quebecers who write editorials for a living and Quebecers who don’t".
Who'd a thunk it? There are conservatives in Quebec, and to win their votes, the Conservative party needs to demonstrate conservative policies in Quebec, rather than listening to the editorialists and artists who wish to deny that their fellow citizens exist.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

That really paid off last time, eh?

Orson Bean

You're into some complex territory there, because if you're referring to the meltdown in Tory support over the Arts funding issue, that was a case where it was the ultimate red blanket that you could wave at Quebec's elites. So Quebec's elites really mobilized over that one, and the result was a communications bombardment by those elites. Of course that's likely to move opinion in Quebec, and it did. Plus I'm hardly the first person to observe this — it has always appeared that Quebecers are more likely to listen to and heed the advice of their elites, partly because of the homogeneity of their culture, and the feeling among Quebecers that they must necessarily stick together in the face of the Anglo threat, etc.

Still, I think scf is on to something, and that is that there are more social conservatives in Quebec than generally assumed, and also that urban-based media elites in this country do tend to self-servingly assume that everyone shares their (typically) socially liberal outlook. And I say that as a social liberal.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

I agree there are lots of social conservatives in Quebec, but the problem is that that conservative outlook is also tied to nationalism, so the Quebec elite can spin almost anything as an attack on the Quebec model. If there were another sort of Quiet Revolution-style uprising against the liberal-minded elite, that would be one thing — but that would be internal to Quebec, very long-term, etc.: in the meantime Harper (or the CPC, it may be too late for Harper himself) can't bypass the Quebec elite as he bypasses the ROC elite. His French isn't good enough.

scf

Whether you are a Liberal or a Conservative, NDP or other, if you are in favour of the end of this string of minorities, then this poll is heartening, because the BQ is the single biggest obstacle for any party to reach a majority.

Gene Rayburn

Indeed, but I'm personally skeptical of all mid-summer polls, so it's hard to know how concrete of a shift this is. Hopefully though, it is a sign that Quebeckers are realising the uselessness of the BQ — I mean, I'm sure they're hating the whole once-a-year federal elections thing as much as the rest of us, right?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Hopefully the three federalist parties will now attack the Bloc with renewed vigour. The Bloc's loss is Canada's gain.

D-R

I suspect French Quebec supports tough on crime nonsense for roughly the same reason that white southerners do.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Why? Because they're dumb hicks? I disagree.
André

Screw you as well Orangist.

*Had an encounter with the censor, my previous version was more colourful

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Polling data consistently demonstrates that on perceptions of the appropriate response to crime, the most easily demonstrable chasm is between Quebecers who write editorials for a living and Quebecers who don’t.

Classic.>
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Polling data consistently demonstrates that on perceptions of the appropriate response to crime, the most easily demonstrable chasm is between Quebecers who write editorials for a living and Quebecers who don’t.

Classic.
Bob

Maybe it is that Clarity Act thing all over again. Quebecers, as usual, just do not understand the question and, more generally, policy issues like crime. Let us do as usual by not caring at all what they think about anything in the first place. Let's cut all public funds to the Bloc. Vive le Canada!!!!
http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

You're two steps ahead of me here Sweeney. I don't even know what the crime rate trend in Quebec is, let alone whether it correlates to the approach to crime, let alone whether any correlation is causative. That's why I'm asking.

http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2009003/art…

The overall crime rate is down in almost all provinces. Violent crime is more mixed although generally less severe. The overall crime rate is down in Quebec'07 to '08. Violent crime is flat.

Just one year obviously, but interesting nonetheless.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

That is also consistent with the long term effects of demographics. An aging population is less inclined toward crime.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

And yet Garth Drabinsky…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

chalk it up to an artistic temperament. Exceptions must be made.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

chalk it up to an artistic temperament. Allowances must be made.
Kate

Agreed, but are you referring to graft or lurid musicals?

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

My main point is that it doesn't necessarily point to ignorance on the part of the Quebecois. In fact, after a (very) little research, I think there is a case to be made that despite increased media reporting on crime, Quebecois have a declining interest on the issue, which would be consistent with a perception that crime rate is dropping.

Google Trends

-And when excluding the Ottawa area, Hull and Gatineau, this effect is even more pronounced.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

I think we've now established that I am at least as ignorant as the most ignorant Quebecois with respect to crime trends. That's a step forward…I guess…

So my understanding, such as it is, is that some Quebecois rightly believe that crime is decreasing, and this percentage outweighs that of other provinces. However a plurality of Quebecois wrongly believe that crime is increasing, which suggests a certain measure of widespread ignorance with respect to the facts, yes?
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

I think we've now established that I am at least as ignorant as the most ignorant Quebecois with respect to crime trends. That's a step forward…I guess…

So my current understanding, such as it is, is that some Quebecois rightly believe that crime is decreasing, and this percentage outweighs that of other provinces. However a plurality of Quebecois wrongly believe that crime is increasing, which suggests a certain measure of widespread ignorance with respect to the facts, yes?
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

I think we've now established that I am at least as ignorant as the most ignorant Quebecois with respect to crime trends in Quebec. That's a step forward…I guess…

So my current understanding, such as it is, is that some Quebecois rightly believe that crime is decreasing, and this percentage outweighs that of other provinces. However a plurality of Quebecois wrongly believe that crime is increasing, which suggests a certain measure of widespread ignorance with respect to the facts, yes?
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

I think we've now established that I am at least as ignorant as the most ignorant Quebecois with respect to crime trends in Quebec. That's a step forward…I think…

So my current understanding, such as it is, is that some Quebecois rightly believe that crime is decreasing, and this percentage outweighs that of other provinces. However a plurality of Quebecois wrongly believe that crime is increasing, which suggests a certain measure of widespread ignorance with respect to the facts, yes?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

I missed the part where we established the a plurality of Quebecois wrongly believe that crime is increasing. From the EKOs poll it looks like 38% think it is increasing, which is the lowest of all the regions by a 10% margin.

… and that's it for dime store analysis… till something else perks my interest anyway.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

I missed the part where we established that a plurality of Quebecois wrongly believe that crime is increasing. From the EKOs poll it looks like 38% think it is increasing, which is the lowest of all the regions by a 10% margin.

… and that's it for dime store analysis… till something else perks my interest anyway.

Anon

Crap journalism. Wells uses one poll to support widespread sociological observations.

sbt

No, he didn't. He used the poll to make his point and added the following: "I have never seen a poll on public attitudes toward crime that did not produce similar results in Quebec, and I have been following the polling data on attitudes toward crime for more than a decade".

Anon

""I have never seen a poll on public attitudes toward crime that did not produce similar results in Quebec, and I have been following the polling data on attitudes toward crime for more than a decade."

Anyone can say that.

sbt

But it would be a pretty stupid thing to say if there were a bunch of polls published over the last decade showing the opposite trend. All anyone would have to do is produce one and Wells' credibility would take a hit.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

It sure would. (Waiting attentively for my comeuppance, if there is to be one.)
http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

See Update to original post. Hugs and kisses, Anon; you are certainly consistent.
http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

Paul, please stop using "data" to refute "widespread sociological observations."

edncda

"…..French-speaking respondents were markedly likelier to support longer jail terms (38.1% vs. 31.6%) and markedly less likely to support a social response (29.4% vs. 33.5%) than English-speaking respondents….."
which clearly shows that people who are more likely to read the Toronto Star are more likely to be soft on crime……..
How wonderful it must be to do this sort of thing and get paid for it too.
Embee

Didn't I read somewhere that the Canadian media have a liberal bias? Hmmm.
jacques noel

Easy to understand: VINCENT LACROIX. Québécois are mad because the bastard only maked 14 months for a fraud of 100 million on 9200 people. Stupid Canadian Justice. A good reason to become independant…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Good point, except for the last sentence. The Tories should also focus their Quebec direct-mail on white-collar crime, if they haven't done so already.

Jenn

What I find disturbing is that "tough on crime" doesn't focus. Do I want someone with an ounce of pot serving twenty years in my taxpayer-funded prisons? No, I do not. Do I want child molesters to rot forever? Yes, I do. Do I want the criminals with the power and the money to bilk thousands of people out of their life savings to attend a country-club minimum security camp? No, I would much prefer if they were put into the cells with the most depraved of our other criminals, thank you very much.

It's not tough on crime so much as tougher on the proper crimes. And I'll include the judge who gives fourteen months of house arrest to a child molester in a position of trust, too, although I'm not completely comfortable with mandatory sentences. Or at least, mandatory sentences with no flexible range to them.

But as usual, we don't get that for a choice. We get tougher all around or not tougher at all.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

So do you support Mandatory Minimum Sentences for convicted child molesters and mini-Madoffs?
sbt

"Do I want someone with an ounce of pot serving twenty years in my taxpayer-funded prisons?"

Is anyone actually proposing that?

"But as usual, we don't get that for a choice. We get tougher all around or not tougher at all."

Actually, we do. Mandatory minimums cover violent offenders, not jaywalkers and shoplifters.

BCer in Mtl

Canadian justice? These people were supposedly regulated by the province of Quebec, which turned out to be a spectactular failure. Montreal is the capital of telemarketing scams, thanks to, that's correct, Quebec's lenient laws.

What we need is a national securities regulator

http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

Agreed. In a market where the talent base has sufficient expertise to do a good job…hmm…uhhh….that's….oh yeah.

TORONTO.

scf

I have to agree with you. For the guy to serve 2 years for stealing 100 million, that is a travesty of justice.

zamprelli

I know perception is nine tenths blah blah blah, but is anyone else bothered by the fact that in every region of the country more people believe crime is increasing than believe it is decreasing, even though that's patently false?

Conservatives are fond of saying they don't govern based on statistics. But it appears they do, as long as those statistics measure perception as opposed to reality.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

And a failure to learn from the experience of others ….

http://calitics.com/diary/9780/the-reaction-tough…

I doubt that it would ever come to that extreme here, but still …
Orson Bean

That was one of the most depressing things I discovered as soon as I got involved in federal politics (in my case, at the local riding level): the fact that crime seems to be this issue that's like crack cocaine to politicians and the public — they're just addicted to it, and there seems to be no limit to how much you can flog the issue. Every time I discussed "the issues that are important to constituents" with the more seasoned political pros, they always (cynically in a way) would mention this — that the easiest, surest way to court votes was to flog the tough-on-crime line.

A related observation: I suspect it has at least something to do with the fact that seniors are understandably more concerned than the rest of us with "safety" issues and the potential for being victims of violent crime, purse snatchings and the like, as they're more physically vulnerable. And seniors vote in significantly greater relative numbers than young people do, which is why politicians tend to kowtow to seniors' concerns.

Embee

'Seniors are understandably more concerned' — True. In addition worries relate to recent events. My neighbour, 82 years old, had never been a victim of crime until 2 weeks ago — his shed was broken into, items taken, other items destroyed/damaged, and the structure damaged. Ask him 3 weeks ago, he would probably have said crime was no problem, ask him today and he will say crime is a major problem. Ask his family members, friends and neighbours and their impressions have no doubt also changed.

Orson Bean

Reminds me of that old saying: a liberal is a conservative who has been arrested; a conservative is a liberal who has been mugged.

Embee

Let's see. The then-conservative was arrested for mugging the then-liberal — episode causes each to change political views. The now-conservative pushes for harsher sentences, resulting in the now-liberal spending more time in jail, unable to vote. AHA it was all a conspiracy by the evil conservatives to ensure a majority government! Does this explain the decrease in crime AND the inability of the conservatives to form a majority government? Some of those old sayings are so profound.

http://intensedebate.com/people/PoliticalPundit PoliticalPundit

Check out today's, 6 August 2009 Nik Nanos Poll!!

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/133

Committed Voters – Canada (N=781, MoE ± 3.5%, 19 times out of 20)

* Liberal Party 36% (-1)
* Conservative Party 32% (NC)
* NDP 17% (+1)
* BQ 10% (+2)
* Green Party 5% (-2) (*Note: Undecided 22%)

Harper Impression Question: Do you have a positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or negative impression of Stephen Harper?

Net Impression Scores*

* Canada: -14.8
* Atlantic Canada: -28.6
* Quebec: -33.3
* Ontario: -13.9
* Prairies: +9.1
* British Columbia: -8.4

Ignatieff Impression Question: Do you have a positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or negative impression of Michael Ignatieff?

Net Impression Scores*

* Canada: +5.2
* Atlantic Canada: +18.0
* Quebec: +12.9
* Ontario: +5.6
* Prairies: -11.1
* British Columbia: +4.5

It is far too soon to be making any reliable prognostications! Less Yada, Yada, Yada, and more analysis is needed concerning what is happening to the Canadian economy, sector by sector, region be region, class by class, and Canadians' mixed perceptions of the recession's impact on their lives.

All the rest is wasted speculative spin!

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

That link is for a poll that was completed June 21, with a much higher margin for error than the EKOs poll.

The trends you cite are for the period May to June. The MoE's on the regional numbers are probably ridiculously high. You shouldn't debase your credible point about more analysis being needing, with misleading statistics and claims of spin.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

That link is for a poll that was completed June 21, with a much higher margin of error than the EKOs poll.

The trends you cite are for the period May to June. The MoE's on the regional numbers are probably ridiculously high. You shouldn't debase your credible point about more analysis being needing, with misleading statistics and claims of spin.
wilson

Sorry PP, but That Nanos survey appears to be from June 17th and June 21st, 2009.
Very confusing how todays date always appears at the top of Nanos surveys.

http://intensedebate.com/people/PoliticalPundit PoliticalPundit

On this issue of some Québécois et Québécoises and the crime issue, I tend to agree with Mr. Wells.

Small town, rural, and suburban Québécois families are as concerned about crime, and the perceptions of crime, as are similarly situated Canadians in other regions of Canada.

The Harper government's taxpayer funded attack on the Bloc is based on the Conservatives' unfounded perception the Bloc and its urban supporters are far too soft on crime and the attack will garner some votes.

The only way Duceppe and the Bloc can counter this attack is to undertake their own nasty attack. I suspect their counter attack will be forthcoming this fall.

Harper, if his government is to save its 10 hard won but fragile seats in Quebec, has decided that it has no alternative but to go nuclear on the crime issue.

It is a very high risk strategy because the Bloc will portray the attack as an attack on all Québécois and Québécoises rather than on a particular social class of the Québécois community.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Please explain how it is a high risk strategy. Other than the part where a Bloc counter-offensive is sure to follow, because clearly the Conservatives want to more in Quebec. How could a tough on crime message be spun as an attack on all Quebecois?
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Please explain how it is a high risk strategy. Other than the part where a Bloc counter-offensive is sure to follow, because clearly that would be true of any issue. How could a tough on crime message be spun as an attack on all Quebecois?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

How could a tough on crime message be spun as an attack on all Quebecois?

Knowing the Bloc, they'll manage to find a way. They always do. Last election, they pretended that the Conservatives wanted to throw thirteen-year olds into adult prison for stealing candy.

Mulletaur

I see nobody has raised the question of question order in the EKOS poll and how that could affect the results for voting intention. Let's see, bombard Quebec with stuff about pedophiles, then have EKOS ask some questions about crime before questions about political support … hmmm.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

EKOS are professionals. They get paid lots of money for polls like this. I assume they know how to do their job. But sure, blame the messenger if you don't like the message.

Mulletaur

They can be professional as you like. But if they skew the poll by opening with two questions on crime which are bound to get respondents in a certain frame of mind before asking the voting intention question, the poll results have to be taken with more than a few grains of salt. This is not a matter of opinion, it is a scientific fact. It is exactly why some political parties use 'push polling' – actually, come to think of it, only Conservative parties in Canada use push polling.

http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

Any reputable polling firm, and Ekos would certainly be one of them, would ask Vote before any politically charged questions.

Mulletaur

Good. Let them say what their question order is then. They have nothing to hide.
http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

Any firm worth their salt knows what they're doing in this regard. They don't need to release their questionnaire. What you're suggesting goes completely against industry practice and norms. You're the one who would have to provide proof for your musings.
Mulletaur

Nope, all I have to do is question their methods. And all they have to do is release their questionnaire to prove me wrong.

Olivier

The poster alluding to Vincent Lacroix and other Ponzi schemer getting away with what is presented as too-soft setences is onto something.

I'd also wage that, Quebecer's understanding is that they live in a society whose apporach of crime is already distinctively oriented toward the "softer" methods and that harsher sentences and such might not be a bad thing in that context.

I didn't use the D-word casually. My guess is is that to Quebecers, Québec-as-a-society (as in not-a-culture, as in that-place-we-all-live-in, including-those-who-are-culturally-different-and-not-identifiable-as-"Québécois") is the context, not canadian society. That is why, even tough it supposedly tries to pile onto something, having mail-bombs from the Ontario Caucus (that is, from people who are out of context and thus aren't from the start assumed to understand what the context is) is something that will give plenty of ammo to the Bloc Québécois (who may be too soft, or lefty-leaning, but who at least are in-context and thus less likely to acquiesce to stupid, out-of left field legislations).

More importantly, I don't understand the Tories fixation with mud-sligning politics against the bloc; when it comes to campaigning, the BQ, Duceppe being the first amongst them, are experts at fighting in the gutter and sligning mud. Just ask those grits who went up against them in the post-sponsorships campaigns.
catherine

Congratulations on your update – very important to have this kind of analysis – I am soft on crime in the sense that I don't see the overall answer as lying in enacting rigid punishment rules – So it is important to expose Quebec as not being more enlightened than the rest of Canada on this point – still, there is likely a Montreal/ROQ division of opinion here.