You know what we need around here? A fresh opinion poll to dissect!

by kadyomalley on Tuesday, August 11, 2009 8:34am - 71 Comments

Thank you, Globe and Mail/Strategic Counsel! Without your timely intervention, ITQ readers might have been forced to go an entire day — or possibly even two days, since Ekos doesn’t come out until Thursday — without being reminded that, yes, it’s still a “dead heat”/stalemate/gridlock/virtual tie:

Conservatives: 34 (-)

Liberals: 32 (-1)

NDP: 15 (-)

Bloc Quebecois:  10 (-1)

Green: 8 (+1)

ITQ was, alas, forced to dock both of you ten points for failing to put the full details up in conveniently overanalysable PDF format, although the Globe managed to get some of that back for sensibly deciding to ignore the BQ’s all but meaningless national standing in its intro, substituting instead the Quebec number — 44% —  which is far more informative.

Other than that, there’s … just not that much going on here, is there? I mean, that we didn’t already know, that is, from the trickle of nearly identical polls over the last few days, and with a 3.1% margin of error, it seems distinctly possible that even the slight fluctuations – the Liberals down a point, the Greens up one – are merely statistical noise. Without full regional numbers (hint, hint) it’s tough to tell what’s changed since last time around, although Peter Donolo hints that the full survey shows some not uninteresting trends as far as the demographic breakdown: apparently, one in three chicks dig the Conservatives — although that’s still not quite as much as the Liberals, within the margin of error that it may be — and both the NDP and the Tories are leaving the Liberals in the dust when it comes to the much-coveted 18-29 vote.

Anyway, have at it. Maybe y’all can find something more insightful to say about these results than ITQ, who is pretty much ready to go on a pollfast until Parliament resumes. Or something actually changes, of course — which means that she’ll have to keep paying attention, because otherwise, how will she know?

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  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

    That wafer thing sure moved a lot of votes, didn't it.

    • http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com bigcitylib

      You just wait!! That video is being analysed frame-by-frame!

      Anyway, there's lots going on! Its a mudfight down here in the trenches! There's just no progress being made.

      • Wascally_Wabbit

        The Wafergate thing will go the same way as Cadman-gate BCL – stored in the memory banks as yet one more reason why we don't trust this guy…
        and why – however they spin this through the stacked questions in the poles – the two questions they should be asking are…
        1. Do you trust Stephen Harper – I figure somewhere between 60-70% will say NO (the died in the wool blue sheep will always say they love him) and
        2. Do you know what Michael Ignatieff stands for? To which about 60-70% will say – NO…

    • Riley Hennessey

      On the opposite side of the spectrum, all those announcements and spending sprees haven't really helped push the CPC numbers up either. Although maybe they've kept them from going down.

    • Gawd

      he had his wafer and ate it too!!!! OMIGAWD!!!! he accepted something offered and…..consumed it!!!!! scandalous!!!

      what a f#@%in joke

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

      Wafergate probably didn't move many votes, but the indignation stirred up by Wafergate-gate probably raised a lot of funds.

      • Jon Pertwee

        maybe, but we'll know when they release their fundraising figures. Conservatives would donate more money to Harper because of a cracker? Now that's crackers!

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

    ITQ [...] is pretty much ready to go on a pollfast until Parliament resumes.

    MYL is pretty much ready to declare that an ITQ-pollfast is impossible. And yes, you may take that as a tongue-in-cheek dare.

  • Hanging Out

    The remarkable thing everyone overlooks (except me, of course) is the spectacular stability of the NDP. Since their founding in 1961, over almost five decades, they have rarely moved the public support needle more than a couple of points either side of 15 per cent. If there was a Nobel prize for political non-momentum, I believe the NDP would have a drawer full of them.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/M_A_N M_A_N

    Wafer thing – Meh.
    Iggy on vacation? – Meh.

    Anything during the summer short of a beer strike? -Meh

    But please, do consider a poll-fast. I know the pickin's are slim, but you've got a surprise H1N1 committee to cover now…

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

    True, but you have to consider the rise of both the BQ and the Green party during those years. To maintain their vote share in an increasingly crowded pool means they've done more than simply tread water.

    • Hanging Out

      I guess remaining unchanged in popular support for almost half a century while some voters move to emerging parties is a "victory" of sorts. It is perhaps a kind of meta-moral victory for the NDP.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

        There are those who find the power-at-all-costs approach to politics repulsive, and for good reasons. (Do you think 'ordinary' conservative-minded people are happy with the performance of Harper?)

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

          Allowing myself the vanity of self-appointment as an "ordinary" conservative-minded person, I offer up the answer NO!

        • Hanging Out

          I see a big difference between "power at any cost" and "no power ever, whatever the cost."

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

            They've formed governments in five provinces, so far. I'd go so far as to say a more credible leader than Layton could have put them withing shooting distance of official opposition in the last election. And they certainly are running to win at the national level, which is more than we can say about the Bloc.

            They've survived well during three decades of free market worship. Who knows what might happen given the current public penchant for socialism?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

            What's wrong with Layton and who would be better?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

            (1) He comes across as an egocentric smug jackass.

            (2) Someone who does not come across as an egocentric smug jackass.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

            He needs to drop the mustache, to de-smugify.

          • Jon Pertwee

            and the smugness

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

            Don't they all (Harper, Ignatieff and Layton) score fairly high on the egocentric and smug scales?
            But Layton is the clear winner on the jackass scale.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

            You are right for sure but in different ways:

            - Layton in a Kelly Clarkson — won American Idol years ago, fifteen minutes are up but still waddles around on TV kind of way
            - Harper in more of a Ward Cleaver father-knows-best, "Ward weren't you a little hard-on-the-Beaver last-night" "no June I don't think so" emotionless kind of way
            - Ignatieff in a Cheer Bear do-gooder who views Canada as his own personal Care-a-lot waiting to ride a cloud car up to Magical Care-a-lot castle kind of way

            So as you can see, there is a great deal of nuance.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

            Oh yeeah, I'm a big 'supporter' of nuance.

            But apparently I should have been watching a whole lot more TV over the last 4 or 5 decades – what the heck is Care-a-lot?

          • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

            Oh yeah, I'm a big 'supporter' of nuance.

            But apparently I should have been watching a whole lot more TV over the last 4 or 5 decades – what the heck is Care-a-lot?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ
          • Jon Pertwee

            Harper is more like a Xerox machine or DVD player than Ward Cleaver. Ward Cleaver had a personality.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

            What YYZ said. Plus, broadcasting that he's going to vote against budgets before he's even read them makes him come off as a knee-jerk partisan with no aspirations for serious participation in the governing of our nation.

            Also, I believe it was two elections ago when he backed mandatory minumum sentences for gun crimes (there were some horrific shootings in Toronto at the time). In one magnificent stroke of boneheadedness, he managed to make the NDP look like an urban Toronto rump party, and to surrender the NDP's hard earned reputation as a left-leaning party of conscience.

            Who would be better? Hard to think of a name right now, which tells you something about Layton's leadership style. There's lots of folks I admire in the NDP, but I just don't know enough about them to judge if they have leadership potential.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

            And while I'm at it, basing your party's oilsands (tarsands, whatever) policy on what you see out the window of an airplane – as Layton more or less did last election – doesn't inspire an image of a thoughtful, heavyweight leader.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

            Sean, I'm sure you know that thoughtful leaders are so OUT.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

            Sigh. I know. We might as well drop the facade and install Don Cherry as our permanent king.

          • Jon Pertwee

            ugh, as long as we dont have to hear any of Cherry's awful "music" from the 90s. The man's older than dust so I dont suspect he would be PM for long.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

            Regarding Layton's 'broadcasting' the NDP position wrt the budget…

            I understand the preception that is created when Layton states the NDP position before reading a budget document. But who would be fooled if Layton waited a respectable period of time after release of the document, and then issued/read the statement that he had essentially prepared the day before? Why is that facade more palatable? It is arguable less honest.

            Ideally he (hell, all politicians from all parties) would actually read the document, let us know what he likes, what he dislikes, some suggested improvements and which parts he absolutely can't support in any way. I continue to hope, but I'm prepared for more of the same.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

            It's not like I expect him to come out and endorse a Conservative budget, or even vote for it. But, I think your last paragraph hits the nail on the head. Work with the budget that's present – even rhetorically – to show Canadians precisely why you oppose it (not because Sir Dickalot drafted it), what parts you support (even if they don't go far enough), and just what the NDP would do differently were they in the driver's seat.

            I don't think a preformed response could ever do that adequately, and I think it would be healthy for both the party internally, and for their external presentation, to keep their policy chops honed by pragmatically and intelligently opposing the government.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

            Actually, the NDP has been incredibly successful at shaping public policy in Canada over the years, despite being "out there" in left field. Particularly in minority government situations. Reform also had a remarkable influence. Neither NDP nor Reform ever had a credible chance at forming a government.

            Call it pushing your agenda from whatever position of strength you might have (you might even call it punching above your weight). Call it having your best ideas "stolen" by the leading parties. I believe both circumstances have applied to these two example parties.

            So, indeed, stealing a page from the dipper playbook, I would much prefer a credible and principled truly small-C conservative party exert its influence on public policy from opposition benches to this faux-conservative we're-all-Keynesian-now nonsense on offer.

          • Jon Pertwee

            Credible and principled were cut from the Conservative mandate by Harper. They got in the way of his grasp for power.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

      Hey, so if we can get another 5 parties into the pool the NDP will finally emerge as top dog.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/PeteTong PeteTong

    Is it possible that if an election were run today the Conservatives would keep all of their incumbents?

    • Hanging Out

      Doesn't seem likely. if the polls are correct, they would certainly lose seats in Quebec, and probably some in Ontario.

    • Wayne

      well with what is it 143 seats now and the lib's with only 77 = it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what might happen and it wouldn't be pretty for the lib's – the thing is with going into an election with awful numbers in Quebec is the best way to gain seats becuase if they see any party from outside the province doing good they strategically vote them away so what could happen is the lib's could lose seats there and Conservatives gain them from the 3 ways – happens all the time – so hope for more success in Quebec for the lib numbers.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/BCerInToronto BCerInToronto

        (Trying again without the bad word)

        Yes, having "crap" numbers in Quebec is absolutely the best position for the Conservatives to be in going into an election. This is obviously exactly where Harper wants to be. It's all part of his master plan that only you and he have the strategic acumen to understand. Clearly, we're in the first legs of a Conservative majority…

      • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/BCerInToronto BCerInToronto

        Yes, having crap numbers in Quebec is absolutely the best position for the Conservatives to be in going into an election. This is obviously exactly where Harper wants to be. It's all part of his master plan that only you and he have the strategic acumen to understand. Clearly, we're in the first legs of a Conservative majority…

      • jon pertwee

        Geez, Id have needed to fail math to agree with that "theory" wayne.

    • Sea Otter

      Incumbency is incredibly strong, especially with declining voter turnout. In the last election, almost 89% of incumbents from all parties who ran again were re-elected. Even in 2006, when the government changed hands, it was 83%. Incumbents are able to build formidable data bases, enabling them to stay in contact with voters electronically for very little cost. So yes, those Conservative incumbents start out with a tremendous advantage, and the odds are that most of them would be re-elected.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/BCerInToronto BCerInToronto

      Not really. Look beyond the national numbers to the regional breakdowns. CPC strength in the west is masking weakness elsewhere in the country. CPC incumbents on Quebec and Ontario would be in trouble under the numbers we've been seeing consistently across polls for months now.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

    I feel like the numbers have not moved since I was a small child.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

      yep, it's been a year or two. :-)

  • Riley Hennessey

    What were the polls saying last summer at this exact same time? Has anyone done a comparison of the numbers between Summer 2008 versus Summer 2009?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

      A year is a short time in Canadian politics.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

      Nanos Now:
      LP: 34%
      CP: 31%
      NDP: 19%
      BQ: 9%
      GP: 7%

      Nanos a year ago
      LP: 34%
      CP: 33%
      NDP: 15%
      BQ: 11%
      GP: 8%

      • Nathan

        It's like deja vu all over again!

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

          Is it? I see something rather significant in these two sets of polls; something that flies in the face of the established narrative.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

            True the NDP is SKYROCKETING from slightly relevant to slightly relevant.

  • Riley Hennessey

    Thanks Robert.

    I seem to recall multiple polls from Strategic Counsel, Ekos, Harris Decima and Nanos pointing to similar results. Tight race between LPC and CPC within the general margin of error all summer long.

    When it came time for the election, the CPC opened up their lead because people began to pay attention and the CPC had a much stronger and more ready election platform and campaign strategy.

    Does anyone think Ignatieff has spent his summer getting that machine organized?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

      Hold on Riley. For almost the entire campaign the CPC "campaign strategy" was to not actually have an "election platform," other than we're-not-Dion.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/BCerInToronto BCerInToronto

      What platform? The platform they released the last week of the campaign, after everyone was doing stories wondering where their platform was?

      • Riley Hennessey

        No you're totally right BCer and madeyoulook, the CPC was way off its game in the last election and had no platform or strategy and organization. It was the Dion team that won that election right? With their amazing plane and ground game?

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/BCerInToronto BCerInToronto

          And what does that have to do with your statement "the CPC opened up their lead because people began to pay attention and the CPC had a much stronger and more ready election platform" exactly?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

            That's right — it should have read "the CPC opened up their lead because they were much better organized and everybody thought the Liberal leader was a @#!$."

          • Riley Hennessey

            You left out the last three words of my sentence on purpose. "And campaign strategy".

            You may argue that they didn't have a good platform, or a clearly defined platform, but they had one. They rolled it out over a series of weeks. Secondly, they had a campaign strategy, which was to frame the election about competence and Dion.

            I'm not going to debate the merits of the CPC. My point was that at the end of the summer, the CPC were prepared and were ready to capitalize once Canadians started paying attention at the drop of the writ. The Liberals weren't. Has the Liberal party learned from last years lesson?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/BCerInToronto BCerInToronto

            I left it out because I don't take issue with that part of your statement. Rather, I agree that the CPC had better campaign strategy going into the last election, and executed and adjusted better on it during the campaign.

            What I was taking issue with, and still am, was your statement that "the CPC opened up their lead because people began to pay attention and the CPC had a much stronger and more ready election platform" because, in reality, they had no platform to speak of until the last week of the campaign, when the lack of one became an issue.

            That's all I'm saying.

          • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/BCerInToronto BCerInToronto

            I left it out because I don't take issue with that part of your statement. Rather, I agree that the CPC had better campaign strategy going into the last election, and executed and adjusted better on it during the campaign.

            What I was taking issue with, and still am, was your statement that "the CPC opened up their lead because people began to pay attention and the CPC had a much stronger and more ready election platform" because, in reality, they had no platform to speak of until the last week of the campaign, when the lack of one became an issue and they cobbled one together hastily, with very large font and many big photos of Harper.

            That's all I'm saying.

          • Riley Hennessey

            I understand your point that the CPC didn't release their full platform until something like 7 days before the ballot. That doesn't mean they didn't have a platform at all for those 3 weeks prior to the full announcement. From the get-go, they made announcements about fuel taxes, small business taxes, support for disabled, and other minimal announcements. They were minimal because at the time, they were trying to portray themselves as prudent, rigid fiscal managers compared to the glitzy expensive announcements they felt the Liberals were making. Their strategy was tied to their platform. Minimal platform, minimal expenditures = spotlight on Dion and his big promises of carbox tax and spending programs.

            So I get why you are stating they didn't release their full printed copy of the platform until the last week, but it doesn't mean they didn't have one at all until then. They knew from the start that the essential platform would be minimal and they planned as such. Key here is they planned. Liberals did not. Which takes me back to my original rant wondering whether the LPC learned from last years mistake.

            Ya dig?

  • Wascally_Wabbit

    Giorno (and Finley) may have been reading Le Carre (and hoping the rest of us have forgotten.)

    Since North Pole / Russian Bear flyby didn't turn Canadian's collective crank – maybe CSIS (playing the MI6 / CIA role) could create something in Panama that would get Canadians fired up – so Harper can have his own little Falklands war….

    Trouble is – I think the Columbian drug money that pretty well owns Panama these days – probably has a bigger war chest than Peter MacKay…

  • robins111

    How about a poll every 2 hrs, this incessent tracking is a waste of energy, the real polls are an election.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

    Pollstergeist

  • Rob

    Kady, the only poll that matters for Quebec is Crop's monthly. They do provincial and federal, they also ask soverignty question.

    They also let you look at the trend line over the last couple of years of their monthly (well almost monthly, they don't do them in the summer, the latest one is june) surverys.

    Really the best take on Quebec.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

    Was the program code for intensedebate written by a summer intern?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

      I share your pain. OTOH, programming is HARD.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

        Not so hard that you should bugger up the basics like this.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

      It's certainly a work in progress.

  • Hanging Out

    Why is no-one talking about the game-changing free trade agreement with Panama? Straw hats should plummet in price.

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