Regardless of the election results, it is clear that Abdullah will not fade from Afghanistan’s political scene. Even Karzai has acknowledged that Abdullah cannot be sidelined or ignored. Karzai has promised to offer his rival a job in his government should he win.
Arguably, however, what matters most is not the election results, but that they are seen as legitimate and representative. This is not a sure thing, given the evident corruption and the weak security situation that almost certainly reduced voter turnout—especially in the Pashtun south where the insurgency is most fierce. The Taliban stepped up its attacks in the days leading up to the election, while the BBC discovered that thousands of voting cards were offered for sale. Tribal leaders have also reported being offered large bribes in exchange for their endorsements.
“It is going to be difficult to have an election that’s pristine,” says Marvin Weinbaum, a former Afghanistan analyst at the U.S. State Department who is now a scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute. He spoke to Maclean’s from Kabul, where is observing the election process on behalf of Democracy International. “But there’s a serious effort on the part of local and international observers to keep people on their toes to avoid some of the more outrageous attempts to fix the process.”
The real test will come when preliminary results are announced on Sept. 3, followed by formal results two weeks after that. Political power has rarely been transferred or, for that matter, perpetuated peacefully in Afghanistan. If that happens this time, the elections may be considered a moderate success.
