Haven't we done this whole Layton/Harper meeting before?

by kadyomalley on Tuesday, August 25, 2009 12:20pm - 35 Comments

No, really: ITQ was there — although not liveblogging for some reason. She has berrypics of the whole thing, even!

Which isn’t to say that she won’t be hanging around outside Langevin this afternoon, of course, but it seems to her that this is just the start of the recent tradition of pre-session meet-and-greet-and-pretend-we’re-all-trying-to-make-parliament-work between the prime minister and the various opposition leaders.

Which means that unless the PM is on one of his periodic ‘This government will never negotiate with separatists’ kicks, Gilles Duceppe will almost certainly be next on the invite list for a cosy one-on-one-chat, with a Ignatieff/Harper tete a tete as the grand finale, likely sometime late next week, just before the pre-Labour Day round of Senate appointments.

Oops. Should I have put that in spoilertext? Sorry about that.

Anyway, ITQ will also be heading to the National Press Theatre for Layton’s post-meeting media availability, so check back later for the designated liveblogging thread.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, in Yellowknife, Ignatieff is “[trying] to dispel rumours of a fall election,” according to Canadian Press, with vague platitudes about wanting “good government, not an election”, and then immediately falling into a self-dug logic hole by pointing out the “50 billion deficit and 1.5 million unemployed,” and saying that “the Harper government isn’t doing enough to deal with the situation.”

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  • anonymoose

    As I said in Wherry's blog, My guess is that Jacko will come out and stand at his press conference, look at the assembled press person, put on a long face and bemoan the fact that Harper won't bend to his will. Then Mr. Scrubbing Bubbles will get fired up and say that HE won't vote to support the government. It is the only way he can be seen to be relevant.

  • scf

    It's the old divide and conquer routine.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      Although it's probably worth noting that last time, it ended up in a writ drop, so I wouldn't assume that any one of the leaders is prepared to back down before the House even gets back to work. That would just be silly.

      • Sea Otter

        Kady, I respectfully disagree. In fact, I think the first opposition leader who comes out and publicly opposes a Fall election will immediately get a spike in his approval rating. Canadians have clearly indicated that they do not want an election right now. Therefore, the first opposition leader to pick up on that, and pledge to diligently hold the government to account without triggering a fall vote, will meet with great public approval.

        Ignatieff should have done that – this late summer tour of his would have been the perfect opportunity to flatly rule out a Fall election. He would have looked all statesmanlike, and the constant, "will he or won't he" questions would have been put aside. Alas, Iggy is frozen with indecision as the hawks and doves in the senior Liberal ranks duke it out.

        • Hanging Out

          I respectfully disagree with the notion that there is any political benefit associated with either forcing or not forcing an election. In our political culture, before an election is called, most people are conditioned to think/say an election is bad idea. Once it gets called, people move on. The question of why there is an election lasts about 24 hours into the campaign, and then it's gone.

          • tobyornottoby

            With a possible exception for the party that formed the government, which can be seen as opportunisitic for manipulating an election (depending on the circumstances) I think you're right that too much is made of this.

  • Anon

    No, Harper is going to offer Layton a Cabinet post for support through the next three years of Parliament.

    • anonymoose

      you just made me shoot coffee through my nose!

  • Amateur Hour

    Jack's in a rough spot. His "oppose the Liberals at all costs" approach has garnered him press coverage, but left the NDP with a mishmash of policy positions, some of which abandon decades of NDP tradition (like support for NATO, UN missions, etc.). He led the vote to bring down Martin and put Harper into power, but got no love from Harper in return. He then tried to climb into bed with the Liberals and Bloc, but that failed to get him a cabinet seat, too. Now he's staring at a possible fall vote.

    What exactly are his options? Play nice with the guy he's demonized (Harper), or lead the NDP to a SEVENTH consecutive fourth place finish?

  • wilson

    Unless Libs are offering Jack a cabinet position…..

  • http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com bigcitylib

    Kady, you keep appeling to "logic". "Logic" this and "logic" that. Its terribly misguided. Set your mind free.

    • http://fullyoffset.blogspot.com Jon

      BCL is (surprisingly) right on this one. Politics has nothing to do with logic… you know that.

  • Hanging Out

    Jack and Steve have a common cause, which is humiliating Ignatieff whenever possible, as much as possible. Today's meeting provides them with an opportunity to explore mutual approaches to making the minority Parliament work so this can happen in the new session.

    For his part, Jack needs to be given a way to block any attempt by Iggy to force an election without losing face. This means Steve has to give him some policy trinket he can claim as a victory. Reform in the area of EI would probably be best for both of them, as it would give Jack a credible talking point, and maximize Iggy's humiliation in being unable to force an election over his own chosen issue.

    Whatever be the specific policy giveaway, I'm confident Jack and Steve can work something out, unless either of them actually wants an election this fall, which seems unlikely. There will be no hint of this collaboration today, however, but we should all listen clsoely to Jack to see what issue he picks allegedly to make his stand. This will be the Layton demand that Harper has agreed to accede to when the time comes.

    • KRB

      Harper will not give Layton any EI reform angle, and Layton won't budge from the inane 360 hr stance. That is a winning issue for Harper in any fall election (him on one side; everyone else on the other), so why would he give Jack a "win" on that? And truth be told, it might take an election to bury that just-won't-die-monster (the 360 proposal) once and for all.

  • wilson

    I'm baffled that the media has not at least considered that PMSH WANTS an election, but just pulled on his blue sweater so as the focus in on MI…

    • Hanging Out

      I don't understand why the PM would want an election, since the best-case result for him would be another minority. He's better to wait and see if the economy gets better, maybe he catches a break, maybe Iggy stumbles big time. He has nothing to gain by going now.

      • KRB

        Sure he does. This whole it-will-be-a-minority-guaranteed groupthink is too dogmatic. Things can happen in elections campaigns, and big breaks are ALWAYS possible. This next election will without doubt be a watershed election in Canadian politics.

        We have had over 5 years of minority government (I believe the longest prior stretch was between 1962-1968), and we've never elected 4 minority Parliaments in a row. There's a reason for that, and that is a strong undercurrent running through our politics right now, and is a feeling easily tapped into during a campaign.

        People have to get away from this idea that b/c the situation seems all calm and steady right now, that it would remain so through a campaign. Not gonna happen …

  • Dakota

    What a waste of time for the chance to say "I tried." Everyone knows that these two couldn't agree on what kind of pizza to have for lunch let alone on any kind of national policies.

    Harper and Ignatieff basically agree on most policy and will come to some sort of arrangement in September to keep the government from falling.

    Does anyone still really believe that there will be a fall election?

    • anonymoose

      do you believe that Iggy is in control of his party? If you were Bob Rae and company (and, by extention, cretien) you are sitting back not caring if iggy goes and loses in the fall. he is then the leader. and has time to do an actual rebuild of the party….in cretien's image. do I think there will be an election? I am leaning 70-30 yes.

    • Hanging Out

      You ask: "Does anyone still really believe that there will be a fall election?"

      I don't think there will be an election, but it won't be for lack of trying by Ignatieff, who is no doubt now beginning to understand the magnitude of his rookie error last January, when he refused to move into 24 Sussex.

    • KRB

      I would go even further than anonymoose and say it's 80-20 on.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

      Jack: Well, let's order a vegetarian pizza with organic cheese made by an ordinary Candian family.

      Steve: I'd prefer a meat lovers pizza — Let me be perfectly clear — Alberta Beef and seal pepperoni

      Mike: What's a pizza?

  • Observant

    Kady !!!! … Have you no empathy for semi-socialist Jack Layton in his geo-political quandary??? Who is he to offer his hand of support … Liberal crypto-fascist USian Ignatieff backed by defrocked Dipper BobRae … or all-Canadian rightwing Conservative Harper backed by wise old PC Tories…???!!!

    Come on, Kady … Jacko is not yet dead (politically) and he's attempting to breath some life into an informal working coalition to spare Canadians an unwanted federal election … so give him a break..!!!

  • Casual Observer

    The worst political and strategic mistake PM Harper could do, is "give" Jack Layton anything, except a boot in the derriere. For current CPC voters, ceding anything to Dopey the dwarf, would be considered treason, and the current supporters would punish Harper for it. On the other hand, Dopey the dwarf has been known to blackmail and extort promises of billions from minority leaders, and just when they are about to be implemented, then be the one who forces an election, ensuring that they are basically scrapped – remember Paul Martin and the Kelowna Accord, and national Day Care program? extorted by Dopey the NDP dwarf from Martin – then, as soon as Dopey thought he might get a taste of power, tossed them aside for an election – when it was well-known that the conservatives would win, and not spend on the Kelowna and national day care. Somehow, after this and numerous other blunders, Dopey the dwarf keeps the job as Head of the Dippers. For the Liberals, Greens and CPC, Dopey the dwarf is the gift that keeps on giving.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/BCVoiceOfReason BCVoiceOfReason

    Part 1 of 2

    PMSH: Jack you are an ass, but I will miss you when you’re gone. I least I usually know where you stand. I won’t miss Iggy at all.

    Jack: Me either! He took away the cabinet spot Rae promised me.

    PMSH: We just can`t deal with Iggy because he doesn`t even know what he wants. I am pretty sure that in his heart of hearts he knows that 320 hrs is a non-starter.. Nobody wants to turn the country into Newfoundland.

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Harbles Harbles

    It's like deja-vu all over again.

    Meanwhile in Yellowknife, The photo album.

    • Buy your ads, cheapo

      You should buy Google ads to promote this like everybody else. Moderators?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/hollinm hollinm

      So now Iggy is publicly wearing glasses so he can look like Harper. Their policies are virtually the same might as well look alike.
      Trouble is Iggy gives the impression he is the absent minded professor. Just look at some of his pictures. He really needs to be coached to control his mannerisms. Some of the pictures are God awful and will probably appear in an election whenever it is called.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/hollinm hollinm

    That's the problem Kady….Iggy outthinks himself. Most of his pronouncements don't make sense if you listen really carefully. Harper/Layton will have coffee agree to disagree and Layton will call a press conference where calls the PM names.
    Wouldn't it blow the socks off the lefties if Harper/Layton form a quasi coalition where the NDP agrees to support the Conservatives for the next year. Harper would have to buy off the used car salesman but its been done before so precedent has been set.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

      Dear hollinm,

      I don't think Iggy is in full control of his party anymore. The meltdown in June, spending half his summer trying to "learn the ropes" in Ottawa has taken the shine off the "new" leader. The weekly leaks from in stories from "anonymous" liberals is a pattern we have seen for years. I remember it started with John Turner and has continued to the present. (The "internal revolt" for me )

      Some Polls show the Liberals are the only party that appear to have a potential lift of nearly 6% if EVERYTHING went well. Disclaimer: When you have the worst results in 100 years an improvement of 3% would be wonderful. The NDP according to the sames Polls to be the biggest loser in overall seats.

      Jack may be calling on Steve hoping to win some concessions to keep his gains from October 2008. It looks like Steve is holding a good "hand" and is not interested in enriching the stimulus, EI, OR any NDP issue to give Jack any way out. I think he also warned the Liberals he would not save the Liberals from themselves regarding the 360 EI proposal.

      Is Harper calling their bluff? Is that Ispos Reid Poll an outlier or a confirmation of their own internal polling?

      Take Care nice to see you fighting with Parnel multiple aliases.

      In 27 days the opposition will have an opportunity to vote a non-confidence motion.

    • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

      Dear hollinm,

      I don't think Iggy is in full control of his party anymore. The meltdown in June, spending half his summer trying to "learn the ropes" in Ottawa has taken the shine off the "new" leader. The weekly leaks from stories from "anonymous" liberals is a pattern we have seen for years. I remember it started with John Turner and has continued to the present. (The "internal revolt" for me )

      Some Polls show the Liberals are the only party that appear to have a potential lift of nearly 6% if EVERYTHING went well. Disclaimer: When you have the worst results in 100 years an improvement of 3% would be wonderful. The NDP according to the sames Polls to be the biggest loser in overall seats.

      Jack may be calling on Steve hoping to win some concessions to keep his gains from October 2008. It looks like Steve is holding a good "hand" and is not interested in enriching the stimulus, EI, OR any NDP issue to give Jack any way out. I think he also warned the Liberals he would not save the Liberals from themselves regarding the 360 EI proposal.

      Is Harper calling their bluff? Is that Ispos Reid Poll an outlier or a confirmation of their own internal polling?

      Take Care nice to see you fighting with Parnel multiple aliases.

      In 27 days the opposition will have an opportunity to vote a non-confidence motion.

  • KRB

    If Jack and the NDP were smart, they would see that the endgame involves the NDP pushing the Liberals and Conservatives together, and replacing the Liberals as the centre-left option.

    That's what happened in BC, Sask. and Manitoba, the places where the NDP are serious contenders for government.

    I guess his immediate objective is to force his way in to a Lib-NDP coalition government (forget Ignatieff's "arrangement" business, Jack will insist on cabinet spots), gain some governmental experience that way, and then claim that they're the ones that keep the Libs from tacking right (claiming Libs are just Conservatives with red ties, etc.), and hopefully gaining support in elections that way.

    Would take an awfully nimble leader to pull it off. I don't think Jack's that nimble (or quick).

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/BCVoiceOfReason BCVoiceOfReason

    part 2 of 2
    Jack: What can we do to help the down-trodden masses and screw Iggy at the same time?

    PMSH: Let’s say we give the laid off manufacturing workers that have qualified for EI by working and contributing for years a break and extend the benefits by 6-8 weeks. This helps the cities that are going to be taking a kick to the nads with the welfare costs and I swear I’ll have Baird drop Miller if I hear any more whining about how he is over spending and not getting wheelbarrows of cash.

    Jack: That fits with me. Can I take credit for coming up with it?

    PMSH: Sure Jack so long as you slant it like we worked this out grown up style and are working for a better deal for Canadians and point out that Iggy has never even come close to trying. AND you just sit down during the non-confidence votes for a year… until we have this recession totally beat.

    Jack: I get to stay leader and say that I did something concrete for poor working Canadians AND get to make Iggy look like an anal retentive jerk. Sh!t, I know I will never be the Minister of Finance again… Maybe , just maybe, I will be moving into Stornoway in a year or two.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/BCVoiceOfReason BCVoiceOfReason

      So I was wrong… Jack once again misses an opportunity to achieve any part of his agenda. Why does anyone ever vote for him?

  • Dick Richards

    Socialists UNITE!!!

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