Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

UPDATED: Confirmed! Gary Doer heads to DC.

by kadyomalley on Friday, August 28, 2009 7:29am - 68 Comments

Pack your bags, soon-to-be-former Ambassador Wilson!

9:30 a.m. – Prime Minister Stephen Harper will meet with the new Ambassador-designate of Canada to the United States of America.

Office of the Prime Minister

Centre Block

Eerily sharp-eyed early riser that he is, National NewsWatch has already dubbed it “DoerWatch”, which makes ITQ feel terribly out of the loop. When did we-the-media-and-assorted-Hill-gossips peg the outgoing premier as the likely next ambassador? Was it yesterday, while she was entirely preoccupied by imminent Senate appointments and Langevinian intrigue? What happened to the David Emerson theory? Or Tom Flanagan! Wouldn’t that be fun? Anyway, I’ll post an update as soon as we’ve got confirmation of his (or her) identity. Whee!

UPDATE: Well, if it turns out to be true, the Winnipeg Free Press’s Don Lett gets to feel pretty darned smug, since he predicted it — well, gave space to the rumour, which was apparently swirling amongst the “well-heeled Lake Winnipeg martini crowd” — in a column earlier this week.

So, did anyone spot the Challenger idling on the Winnipeg airport runway late last night? Or, being a fiscally conservative Dipper, would Doer have flown the proletariat skies?

AND ANOTHER UPDATE: CJOB reports, and CBC is confirming, that Doer is, in fact, headed to DC, and the Globe’s Jeffrey Simpson gets an ITQ Prescience Only Counts When You Say It In Public Point for suggesting, as a “pure guess,” in today’s column, that Doer would do well as “consul-general in a place such as Los Angeles or Denver or Seattle.”

TWO ITQ POCWYSIIP points for Don Martin!

Quick, everyone! Wikipedia update race!

I can’t seem to track down a transcript of Doer’s speech at the NDP convention in Halifax, but the video is available via CPAC, and might be worth rewatching (y’all did watch it the first time around, right?) in light of recent developments.

The video is available on Youtube, too!

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: So, is anyone else feeling kind of bad for Rodney MacDonald today? First he loses out on that Nova Scotia senate seat, now this. What does a former PC premier have to do to get some love from Ottawa?

Okay, ITQ is ready to make a not-remotely-bold prediction that Gary Doer’s appointment is going to be universally supported — perhaps, in some cases, through slightly gritted teeth, but still supported — by the very same opposition parties who were howling with outrage over yesterday’s Senate appointment binge. I honestly don’t see a down side for anyone. Oh, and for the record, you can also make a decent case that Harper’s previous ambassadorial pick — Michael Wilson — as a crosspartisan gesture of sorts, since he was, of course, from the Progressive Conservative wing of the party, which is still – despite what some spinny types might tell you — a distinct subculture within the CPC.

FINAL UPDATE: And it’s official: we’re sending our least terrifying theoretically socialist politician to Washington. Will he bring his Tommy Douglas poster? And will he be dragged into the health care debate?

AFTERMATHDATE: Colleague Wells has the official reaction from NDP HQ.

A teaser:

Just a few weeks ago, Premier Doer spoke at our National Convention in Halifax, Nova Scotia. He spoke of the balance between principle and power, saying that winning government and enacting good, progressive policies was the right thing to do. Premier Doer and his government stayed true to their principles and made lives better in every corner of Manitoba.

New Democrats feel honoured to have one of our most effective leaders chosen to play this significant role on behalf all Canadians. On behalf of our caucus in Ottawa and New Democrats across Canada, I wish my friend Gary and his wife Ginny well in this new opportunity to serve Canada.

Tags: canada/us relations, Michael Wilson, oh or how about ian brodie? get your speculation fix while you still can

More by kadyomalley

mungman

Heh he's like to the proletariat what the Queen of England is the the homeless.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Harbles Harbles

Sort of what happened to Ed Schreyer. An effective popular politician looking for new challenges is diverted from possibly causing problems on the federal scene by the powers that be in Ottawa is offered a posting he can't refuse to get him out of the politics for a while at least. Not the GG but ambassador to US no slouch gig. Best wishes in his new posting, I think we'll see him back in a few years though.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Harbles Harbles

Sort of what happened to Ed Schreyer. An effective popular politician looking for new challenges is diverted from possibly causing problems on the federal scene by the powers that be in Ottawa, offered a posting he can't refuse to get him out of politics for a while at least. Not the GG but ambassador to US no slouch gig. Best wishes in his new posting, I think we'll see him back in a few years though.
http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

Okay, that's even better.
Dot

I knew something was in the works when Layton left that meeting with the PM a few days ago. Whats the quid for his pro quo?

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

I'm not sure if this helps or hurts Layton or the federal NDP in the slightest, so that doesn't make all that much sense, really.

Dot

I'd rank it with the appointment of Stephen Lewis to UN ambassador, and the pulpit it gave them. Suddenly, for some, the NDP didn't quite sound like they were fully of extremeists, which, I would suggest, is important for Layton and the NDP brand. So, we differ.
mman

Doer has been talking retirement from the premiership for awhile, and apparantly learning French. So, ya if I were Layton I'd be worried.

http://intensedebate.com/people/hollinm hollinm

Harper never ceases to amaze. First it was John Manley on the Afghanistan mission now Doer who has been an NDPer all his adult life I suspect. Doer is a pragmatic politician and knows how to smooze with the best of them. If true, it will be a feather in Harper's cap and the discussion about the 9 Senate appointments of yesterday will disappear. Of course much to the chagrin of the Liberals.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Actually, I suspect the Liberals will laud this appointment – genuinely, even.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

I'm one of those Liberal supporters that do – Doer is a good pick and will work well with President Obama – but it still doesn't distract from the fact that Harper's 27 patronage crony appointments in less then 8 months is the most by any Canadian Prime Minister since 1917 and Robert Borden's 26.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Man, I dunno about the rest of you, but I can’t hear that “most ever appointments in a single year” talking point enough! Seriously, y’all (and by y’all, I mean those of the Liberal persuasion): Stephen Harper didn’t magick those vacancies into existence. Senators retired. The fact that he’s had to appoint 26 of them is a function of the passage of time, not a nefarious plot. He has a constitutional obligation to fill the seats, although not – you could argue and look slightly less disingenuous (not you personally, Scott, but some of your ilk) – with crankily diabolical Scots-born political operative.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

Some of that was of his own making of course – he refused for the longest time to fill these seats, then did so in a panic when it looked liek hr might be defeated.

Form my point of view, I'm going after him – and many other bloggers – not for the patronage appointments per se – but for the fact he's been going on for 13 years (per all those lovely quotes of his) about how he wouldn't do this with the Senate. The fact he's not only done what he repeatedly said he wouldn't do, but appointed party cronies, AND managed thru some of his own making to appoint the most Senators in a calendar year ever just adds to the hypocrisy (or "Harpocrisy") argument.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

Some of that was of his own making of course – he refused for the longest time to fill these seats, then did so in a panic when it looked like his government might fall.

From my point of view, I'm going after him – and many other bloggers – not for the patronage appointments per se – but for the fact he's been going on for 13 years (per all those lovely quotes of his) about how he wouldn't do this with the Senate. The fact he's not only done what he repeatedly said he wouldn't do, but appointed party cronies, AND managed thru some of his own making to appoint the most Senators in a calendar year ever just adds to the hypocrisy (or "Harpocrisy") argument.

Mulletaur

Doer's appointment helps promote Canada's interest by giving the Obama administration somebody they will like working with.

But as many others point out, it doesn't take away from Harper's hypocrisy on Senate appointments. Also, why is Doug Finley being appointed now ? Does that mean the Conservatives have given up on the next election ?

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

See, that's what I was thinking — but are you *less* worried or *more* worried now? I'd tentatively go for the latter.

mman

It depends on if you are thinking short term, or long term. If Layton is planning on "going away" in the next 2-3 years then he's less worried, if he's hanging around after that not so much.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

True, although it never stopped Frank McKenna's name from surfacing as a possible Liberal leadership contender when he was in DC.

Sigh

But then, Frank Mckenna' s name surfaces as a possible Liberal leadership contender whenever the job opens up, so I'm not sure it mattered where he was.

http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com bigcitylib

"the well-heeled Lake Winnipeg martini crowd”

That's 4 guys and a bottle of hooch.

Dot

And Bill Blakey on the bagpipes.
Terren

Hush now. It's rich people in Winnipeg who own cottages

http://intensedebate.com/people/Harbles Harbles

In the Whiteshell and the Kenora, Lake of the Woods areas.

Canuckistanian

yes, the well-heeled tend not to go to lake winnipeg as much. the well-heeled dippers and assorted north-enders do tend to go to lake winnipeg.

Terren

REALLY?
Riley Hennessey

The Doer news is pretty exciting and does three things:

1. Makes Harper look less partisan
2. Shows he is serious about tackling the "Buy American" stuff by putting a Premier in the spot – a current premier whom all others have dealt with and know well. This is the most important point.
3. Puts in place someone much closer to Obama's comfort zone both in personality and in practice.

an online reader

Ottawa bunker elves all over last Ontario Provincial election . ( they blew it ) Fed. Cons. would not care about Manitoba Provincial politics . harper is turning into Canada's Winston Churchill ?

Riley Hennessey

Um… was that supposed to make sense?

an online reader

To you or Hugh McFadyen ?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

I disagree on Point #1; this excellent pick of Doer will accentuate the fact he picked a lot of Conservative hacks yesterday.. and get people asking why he couldn't have done the same for the Senate as he did for Doer. (You'll notice that a lot of people are highlighting that Harper is now on record for having appointed 27 of his cronies to the Senate in less then a calendar year, the most by any Canadian PM since Robert Borden picked 26 in 1917. So, one non-partisan pick for US ambassador is hardly going to deflect attention from that).

Dot

Harper appointed Senators?
Patrick

You're underestimating the attention deficit disorder of most media outlets and of the Canadian public.

Riley Hennessey

Anybody think that Harper maybe called the meeting with Layton last week to inform him of Doer's new role?

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

I gotta say that sounds unlikely to me, since it probably would have leaked out in NDP circles, at the very least. It also really doesn't have that much to do with him — Layton, that is. I mean, yes, Doer is an NDP premier, but the Manitoba NDP is definitely its own entity, not just a branch plant of the Ottawa office But anything is possible.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

If Layton had any sense this was going to happen he would have jumped in front of it as an example of his influence.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

That's probably true.

Hanging Out

You mean as a common courtesy? I doubt it.

Terren

Too bad for Rodney Macdonald. Guess he's not really serious international material.
tobyornottoby

"What does a former PC premier have to do to get some love from Ottawa?"

Competence?

Mulletaur

Now that's asking a lot.

Dot

My prediction: In a few days either Wells will be coming out with a column, or Flanigan will write an op-ed describing how Harper sat down over the summer, secluded, with a looming election call, and figured out how he could fill the Senate vacancies with partisans, and further try to strengthen the NDP (at the expense of the Libs) by making them the party that the CPC appears to be able to work with.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Your theory is interesting, but I'm still not convinced this is particularly good news for the federal NDP, although mind you, I'm not saying it's bad<./em> news. What it does is remove Doer from the federal political scene completely — he can't very well speak at future NDP conventions, or hit the campaign trail with Jack when he drops in on Manitoba. I'm also not persuaded that it will result in reflected glory — or, more accurately, reflected aura of competence and viability — for the party itself. It makes Doer look good, but he already did, so I'm not sure how that translates into a credibility boost for the NDP.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Your theory is interesting, but I'm still not convinced this is particularly good news for the federal NDP, although mind you, I'm not saying it's bad; news. What it does is remove Doer from the federal political scene completely — he can't very well speak at future NDP conventions, or hit the campaign trail with Jack when he drops in on Manitoba. I'm also not persuaded that it will result in reflected glory — or, more accurately, reflected aura of competence and viability — for the party itself. It makes Doer look good, but he already did, so I'm not sure how that translates into a credibility boost for the NDP.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Your theory is interesting, but I'm still not convinced this is particularly good news for the federal NDP, although mind you, I'm not saying it's bad news. What it does is remove Doer from the federal political scene completely — he can't very well speak at future NDP conventions, or hit the campaign trail with Jack when he drops in on Manitoba. I'm also not persuaded that it will result in reflected glory — or, more accurately, reflected aura of competence and viability — for the party itself. It makes Doer look good, but he already did, so I'm not sure how that translates into a credibility boost for the NDP.

Dot

Hey, I follow politics like everyone else here, and apart from seeing short appearances of his at Premier's meetings, I didn't know much about him. But I live outside of Ottawa and Manitoba. And those are the people who he may impress. One piece of a bigger puzzle.

Riley Hennessey

If either of them does write that column, it will be because these kind of decisions are important and interesting to nerds like myself and for political watchers, and there are few journalists out there who write them as well as he does. I hope you're right, because Wells is a Genius with a capital G, and his insight and analysis have done him pretty well over his career.

http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

I think Doer is an excellent choice for Ambassador.

I served in the Canadian Embassy in Washington during two presidentail elections. Many countries routinely replace their ambassador when a new Administration comes in since there is already a wholesale turnover of staff in Washington and the sitting Ambassador will often not have the same access to the new guys. If anything, Mike Wilson's departure was probably a bit later than would have been expected. There is no way that the kerfuffle of a few years ago had anything to do with the timing of MW's departure.
Sea Otter

It is worth noting that Michael Wilson will soon turn 72. He was 68 when he took the job, so it is difficult to imagine that he was looking to serve a whole lot longer than this. If you check the history of Canadian Ambassadors to the U.S., in fact, three and a half years seems bang on the average length of service.
http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

Doer's a good choice for Harper for many reasons – closer to Obama's idealogy (much more cons/centred than Layton), experience, likeable and much more important – leaves a bigger chance of Cons winning in Manitoba.
Derek

The Conservatives already have all the seats they can possibly win in Manitoba, so this won't make any difference on that front.
Anon

Poor Michael Wilson. Agreeing to go to that Mulroney lovefest was obviously un grand faux-pas.

Wonder if he found out that he was being replaced through Kady's blog?
Dot

Interesting timing. A day after appointing a bunch of party loyalists, an NDP appointment to a key diplomatic post. Smells fishy.
http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

Per Wikipedia, Ambassador Wilson had a three-and-a-half year run. Does that not seem a bit short?
http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

There was .. a spot of unpleasantness that made it seem longer. Well, for the PMO, anyway. On the plus side, now he can be back in Canada for the upcoming Celebration of Tory Majorities Past with his former boss.
Mulletaur

Not when there's a change in administration as dramatic as the one between Bush and Obama.
http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

He's the head of the party planning committee.

Also – if true, wouldn't that put the Manitoba Dippers in a tight spot? I mean Doer is still Premier until someone chooses his replacement, no? WAIT! Maybe THIS is what Fiddlin' Rodney's gonna be doing.
http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

Not sure that unpleasant "spot" had any lingering effect, though. And as for the upcoming celebration, I am reliably informed that there exists affordable bidirectional high-speed travel between Washington DC and most points in Canada.

So is it that Wilson is too much of a PMBM loyalist, is it the prior honest exposure of the Obama campaign's dishonesty, is it that Harper thinks a Dipper socialist (which I am not sure Doer actually qualifies for…) would find a more comfortable home among the Politburo inside the beltway, or is it something else?
http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Rodney heads west to take over the premier's office? That's just zany enough to work!
http://intensedebate.com/people/YYZ YYZ

Yes, damn it, it does feel weird when this government does something right.
Riley Hennessey

Let's recap here. Two weeks ago it was imminent election, with Harper standing a real chance of doom.

In those two short weeks we've seen an Ipsos poll bode well, in addition to several other polls showing CPC strength in Ontario and a slight rebound in Quebec.

There are stories of raprochement between Mulroney and CPC, and Charest and Harper. Harper then fills the Senate with enough seats to get his legislation and reform through this year, and names a bi-partisan guy as his new U.S. ambassador.

Dang, that's not a bad two weeks for Harper. To boot, Libs threw cold water all over election speculation this week. Does this guy know how to play the game or what?
http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Well, although I may well have utterly destroyed my credibility as an Ottawa insider by admitting that I hadn't heard so much as a whisper that Doer was heading for DC before this morning, I can tell you that Wilson's imminent departure has been rumoured for months due to PMO's post-ObamaBrodieLeakThing pervasive distrust in his discretion.
an online reader

Oldest business trick in the book , promote or transfer problem employees out of your area . harper is becoming such a statesmen . yea right !

Party Standings Current Party Leader
Liberal 2 Dr. Jon Gerrard
NDP 36 Gary Doer
PC 19 Hugh McFadyen
http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/manitoba/ public opion poll projected seats ; 2008 /12 – ndp 41 pc43 ; 2009/06 – ndp 44 ; pc 36
http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

Well, to some extent that's a list of cases where Harper has extracted bullets he spent last winter and spring shooting into his own foot. Unparalleled rapprochements (rumoured, it should be noted, in Charest's case) with people he should have been friends with all along! As for the Liberal election thing, I think we're nearly four years into a phase where, if a Liberal chickens out of an election confrontation, it's not necessarily due to any Conservative's strategic genius. It's kind of what Liberals do these days.

But on the Doer thing, full marks for shock value. Reminds me of something Coyne said a year ago: it's easy enough to keep your opponents on the wrong foot if your actions are essentially random.

Speaking of Coyne: New Coyne v. Wells podcast coming later today!
Dot

Game theory (wiki)

A mixed strategy is an assignment of a probability to each pure strategy. This allows for a player to randomly select a pure strategy. Since probabilities are continuous, there are infinitely many mixed strategies available to a player, even if their strategy set is finite.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategy_(game_theor…

Ok, I'm going to tentatively scratch you off my list, and wait for Flanagan's self promoting op-ed.
Riley Hennessey

It's true that a lot of the problems Harper has had are self-inflicted, but that happens all the time in [ublic office. What happens less, are when people try to course-correct themselves successfully. Harper has miles to go before he corrects all of his faults, but on a few issues – namely his debacle last November, the party splits, and the partisan hackery of yesterday, he comes back with full swings. Heck I even think he looks thinner again!

I actually think this goes back to a lot of your analysis. Harper takes the summer to plan things out strategically.. sometimes he dissapears, sometimes he doesn't.. but when he comes back for the fall: he's ready. Can we say the same about Ignatieff?
http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

It's certainly true that digging yourself out of a hole is better than digging yourself further into one.

I must say I'm not a huge fan of the Doer appointment — I don't think it reflects very well on either party — but it's clear that on that point I'm outvoted by most of the early reaction from all quarters. Probably I'll get around to saying more about that later.
Riley Hennessey

I'll tell you that the premiers are very excited about this because they now have someone they know sitting in D.C. Wilson was less than friendly.

I think this has more short-term implications with the "Buy American" legisation and trade issues than it does long-term strategy. How will Doer enjoy negotiating Canada's further role in Afghanistan, the next military engagement, or thorny conservative issues? Should be interesting! At least it's not dull!
http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

Plus Wilson's close ties and friendship with the Bush family and GOP in general – which wouldn't be much good to Harper right now.