Inkless Wells

 Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

Evolution

by Paul Wells on Monday, August 31, 2009 6:01pm - 54 Comments

“That’s why we have to reform EI. Improving eligibility will bring help to workers who have paid in but don’t currently qualify. It is also the most effective, rapid and targeted form of stimulus the government can offer our economy right now…

“One-hundred-and-fifty-thousand more unemployed Canadians on EI mean 150,000 more Canadian families spending on food, rent and transportation. It means money flowing into communities that have been hit the hardest by this recession. That’s the kind of immediate, targeted and effective stimulus we need right now…

“Red tape has paralyzed federal infrastructure spending, and billions of dollars are being held back by the federal government from municipalities that are desperate to get shovels in the ground and to start creating jobs. We can help those communities directly, right now, by improving access to EI.”

— Michael Ignatieff, National Post, May 23

“EI reform is not an issue universally popular with caucus members. Some MPs argue that their constituents would rather hear about job creation than insurance for lost jobs.

“’EI is an important issue but it’s not the only issue,’ House Leader Ralph Goodale said, repeating the refrain for emphasis. ‘EI is one of the issues. It is not the only issue.’”

— Globe and Mail, today

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  • http://intensedebate.com/people/craigola craigola

    Even before Ralph Goodale said anything about it, it was hard to imagine EI reform as THE issue to force an election over.
    I liked, "The Liberal Leader will make his choice with the help of his MPs, noting that it will be a 'serene decision and a clear one.'”

  • Jenn

    Agreed. The time has kind of passed EI reform by, if one can believe the economic recovery news.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/CndnRschr CndnRschr

    Political expediency. Michael, stop licking your figure and testing the direction of the wind – pick a position, any position, and stick to it. I'm getting dizzy. Hint, EI was about disparities in access across the country, one of many disparities that rile many Canadians from sea to melting permafrost. Take a position on that, after all, you are the leader of the Federal Opposition, are you not?

    • Mulletaur

      Yup.

  • Dakota

    He huffs and he puffs but he just can't seem to bring the house down.

    • Mulletaur

      Huh, really. We'll see about that very shortly. Like when the House comes back.

      • Orson Bean

        But Mulletaur, isn't the problem here that Iggy and the Liberals can't simply take the govt down all by themselves, given the numbers? Therefore, they need cooperation of the other opposition parties — the problem there is that it seems like a rare confluence of events when what's good for the Liberals is also good for the NDP and the Bloc in terms of where the election/poll numbers are pointing. Especially that Liberal-NDP dynamic. Usually when things are looking good for the Liberals, they're not looking so good for the NDP, and vice-versa. A big reason for that being that they fish out of the same pond to a great extent when looking for voters.

        • Mulletaur

          All that you say is very true, Frijol. But the shoe is now on the NDP foot, so to speak. Can't wait to see whether Jack Layton will revive the 'Axis of Weasels" as Kinsella so elegantly termed it.

  • jay

    "The time has kind of passed EI reform by, if one can believe the economic recovery news."

    This has been conventional wisdom since last spring. At the same time, people tend to point to continuing unemployment whenever anyone says the recession has ended.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/craigola craigola

      Jobless recovery.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/StephenGordon StephenGordon

    EI reform would be more compelling if it was going to solve an identifiable problem; something around 85% of those who lost their jobs are receiving regular EI benefits.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

    I was wondering if Sir Humphrey's law of inverse relevance would apply when the EI summer work group was formed. It states "The less you intend to do about something, the more you have to keep talking about it" and our pols have been talking about reforming EI for months now but nothing is happening.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/StephenGordon StephenGordon

      Well, there was an extension to the benefits period that was put into place in March.

      (I'm sure I said this before; the comment seems to have disappeared.)

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/StephenGordon StephenGordon

    Not exactly. An extension to the benefits period has already been put into place.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/craigola craigola

      That's pretty close, Mr. Gordon. Additional benefits were provided, but no extension was given to the benefits period. They tacked on 5 weeks of regular benefits across the board, but they didn't provide any additional time in which to collect them. And the extra 5 weeks was a budget thing, wasn't it? The talk of reform actually started after that had already been done.

  • Canuckistanian

    no fun; saw the header and thought we were gonna make fun of the minister science and tech some more.

    as for election speculation/EI reform: meh, wake me up when something happens ;-)

    • Paul Wells

      Lucky you; it's gonna be a long nap.

  • Laura

    Don't you start to regret Stephane Dion ?

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

    The sooner the Liberal braintrust realizes that it won't be able to bring down the government on the cheap the better off they'll be. I suspect that there are many people like me – The more I learn about him as an intellectual the more I like him…now he just has to give me a reason to like him as a politician.*

    *actually, I probably wouldn't have given him nearly as much leeway initially if it wasn't for the absurd/intellectually insulting caricature that was made of him by those on the Right (The juvenile "Just Visiting" campaign or Stephen Taylor's pathetic attempt to link Ignatieff with Cheney for example)

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/AJR79 AJR79

    I though for sure this was about Goodyear too, and thats always entertaining.

    Maybe throw one up about him next time Mr.Wells…. you and Mr.Wherry are starting to freak me out

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/DeliciousLattes DeliciousLattes

    Not that I disagree with the sentiment of this post, but I just like to check every so often — It's still the job of the governing party to make policy in this country, right? Sometimes I read the newspapers and forget.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

    Iggy made the right call on this one. If the Libs used 9-week EI eligibility as the basis for a fall campaign, Harper would finally win his coveted majority.

    • Mulletaur

      Easy enough to show flexibility on the number of hours to qualify, which is anyway arbitrary, but totally back up the principle of one standard across Canada, which I think almost everybody can sign up to.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

        The problem is that Harper backs that principle, too.

        • Mulletaur

          That's not a problem, that's a basis for our politicians to get together and make some good policy. Unfortunately, Harper wants to use this opportunity to lever in employment insurance for the self-employed, which I think is a non-starter for a whole number of reasons.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

      Really? He'd make gains in Quebec?

      Not to knock your point, but the math just isn't there for a majority for anybody. 308 / 2 = 154; 308 – 40 BQ seats – 40 unwinnable GTA ridings = 228. So of the rest of the country he needs 154 of 228 ridings, or 2 out of every 3 seats. That wouldn't just be a majority, it'd be a supermajority, especially in this climate. And the same goes for the Liberals, if we substitute the West for the GTA.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

        An additional note on TROC supermajorities: The 9-week EI-eligibility argument utterly fails to resonate with Canadians, who are generally quite relieved that the economic apocalypse has been averted, and Canada seems to be pulling out of it. If Iggy triggered an election on that issue, I sincerely believe that Harper could keep the Quebec seats he already has, and gain at least twelve seats elsewhere.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

          You don't think it resonates with places like the interior of BC or Oshawa?

          Still, I think you're entirely right that this was a total non-starter and basically a desperation issue for the Liberals, to allow Iggy to look like he was fighting to the government tooth and nail on something. He will have to dig deeper into his top hat. His one advantage is that he can now quietly drop EI-eligibility, but the ball remains in his court.

          Contrawise, if he comes up with something, the Tories will be hard pressed to refute it, since they really have no raison d'être at this point (apart from the absolutum dominium). So much of their support depends on their not being the Liberal party of 2003, so as soon as the Liberals are no longer the Liberal party of 2003 the Tories will have a problem.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

            I'm sure it resonates in some afflicted regions, but not in most of the country. Many Canadians (not just the right) have a visceral response to the idea of 9-week EI qualification, which recalls the abuses of the early 1990s.

            He will have to dig deeper into his top hat.

            Agreed. It will be interesting to see if Iggy will propose any bold new policy initiatives, or if it will just be a cautious, minimalist platform.

          • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

            I'm sure it resonates in some afflicted regions, but not in most of the country. Many Canadians (not just the right) have a visceral response to the idea of 9-week EI qualification, which recalls the abuses of the early 1990s.

            He will have to dig deeper into his top hat.

            Agreed. It will be interesting to see whether Iggy will propose any bold new policy initiatives, or if it will just be a cautious, minimalist platform.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

          The 9 week eligibility idea struck me as a very odd 'enhancement' to the EI program.

          Shortly before that idea became the hill that the Liberals were (temporarily) prepared to die on, I'm sure that I also heard a proposal that would reduce or eliminate the waiting period between the day the job is lost and the day that you get your first payment.

          I'm not sure that that proposal was a great idea, but it did seem quite a bit more tolerable than the 9 week idea for two reasons:
          - it at least would have helped the folks who might really need that help: long term workers who were earning middle class wages, still basically living month to month (moving a lot of their income directly back into the local economy) and had just lost their jobs rather than short term workers whose incomes might tend to be lower
          - a portion of the folks who have been working for years and years and never drawn on the EI system could at least look at that proposal and say "Well, I'm reasonably sure that my job is safe, but God forbid that I should lose my job, that proposal is one that I would benefit from as well; I can support that".

      • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

        Quite right. If Quebecers' support for the Conservatives matched the party's relatively strong support in the rest of the country, Harper would enjoy a solid majority today. Harper detractors can credit Gilles Duceppe with preventing the implementation of Harper's much-dreaded "secret agenda", which consists of a tiny scroll of parchment inscribed with the words: absolutum dominium.

      • http://chuckercanuck.blogspot.com chuckercanuck

        But we already have what 143 or 144 of those ridings. So, we almost have 2 of thouse 3 seats.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

          I mean that I can't see how the Tories can pick up seats in the GTA, Atlantic Canada, or Quebec, the climate of opinion being what it is. In the last election, the Liberals were led by Stéphane Dion. As CR says, as long as the Bloc exists, this is the CPC's high water mark.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

            It's possible that the CPC could pick up twelve additional seats outside of Quebec, GTA, and Atlantic Canada, but it will be extremely difficult to do so. Now that Ignatieff appears to have wisely decided to avoid a fall election, a Harper majority seems increasingly unlikely. The Olympics will probably ensure that the next election happens in Fall 2010 or later.

          • Mulletaur

            "Now that Ignatieff appears to have wisely decided to avoid a fall election … "

            Oops. I know, hard to predict based on past form ;->

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

            LOL. So much for my prediction. Of course, it's still possible that we'll avoid an election this fall, if either Iggy or Jack backs down.

          • http://chuckercanuck.blogspot.com chuckercanuck

            Fair enough. I am comfortable with folks counting Tories out completely in Quebec. My advice to Liberals would be: don't sweat it. Quebec is a lock for them!

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

            If only. Of course I was not referring to the Liberals but to the Bloc. I'd be delighted if the Bloc vanished, but do you see any sign of that happening?

          • http://chuckercanuck.blogspot.com chuckercanuck

            No, I don't sadly. Now, if we all ganged up on them the way they all did to us in the last election, we could bruise them up a bit.

            They do have a pickle of a problem on the crime issue. The PQ are now advocating tougher sentences on white collar crime because that's a big issue these days in Quebec. But if the bloc reverse their "principles" and accept tougher sentences on white collar crime, the obvious follow-up is: why get tougher on white collar crime but remain lax on child-sex traffickers? Aren't they both, ummm, really bad?

            That would be a good issue for us (Tories). If separatism became an issue, that would be good for all federalists.

            Now, my buddy just got a 10 percenter from the Bloc in his north shore riding (Blainville). The Bloc was attacking Canadian multiculturalism and advocating a Quebec "melting pot" approach. That seemed like something that wouldn't play well in urban montreal.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

            They don't have a lot of seats in multicultural Montreal, except for Duceppe's own riding on the Plateau, which is also teeming with fervently nationalist students. Re: crime, etc., I think the BQ could play their "get tough on white collar crime" card and still oppose mandatory minimum sentences. The Bloc knows how to play the QC heartland like a fiddle.

          • http://chuckercanuck.blogspot.com chuckercanuck

            The Bloc has also had mis-steps we forget about. In 2006, its "Calgary Overlords" attack ads were a disaster. And, the Bloc was greatly helped in 2008 by the Dipper ad that attacked the Tories (remember, it had the militaries marching and the little children's heads exploding). It was a brilliant, brutal ad.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

    Well, seems to me there's a lot of evolution going around this summer by all parties.

  • Craig O

    Good. It's too late for EI reform to do much to help the economy and it was a double-edged economic sword in the first place. Besides, to quote Raitt, it's not a "sexy" issue. Even my eyes glaze over when I hear EI reform, and I'm a policy junkie…

    Now the question is, what does Ignatieff have left? There are plenty of things to hit Harper on, but the Liberals have already taken pot shots on them, without sticking to any one criticism. EI was the only issue they've really pressed for the last few months. Right now, they've got to reignite one of many dead debates, or hope Harper screws up again soon on an interesting subject, just to keep their poll numbers where they are. Not looking to good for them…

    • Orson Bean

      The mini-interview I saw on CTV this morning with Liberal hack David Smith seemed to suggest that right now, the Liberals are voicing this "there are all kinds of issues" party line. I've heard that a few times in the last couple of days. Not sure where they're headed with this. Maybe they're going to throw it all out there & see what sticks. On the other hand, maybe their strategic idea is that the cumulative effect of all of these "issues", if repeated and emphasized often enough in a campaign, might be enough to convince enough voters that Harper & Co. should be tossed.

  • Riley Hennessey

    Has anyone asked what the issue is that WILL be the final straw that will absolutely force them to bring the government down?

    It's not EI, it's not the economy, it's not infrastructure funds, it's not Afghanistan, it's not the GST, it's not the environment, it's not Senate appointments, it's not unemployment…

    Surely then, it must be the whims of Warren Kinsella that shall determine the fate of parliament.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/craigola craigola

    What the heck kind of baker are you, Riley? You're preparing a delicious non-confidence cake. Do you make it with just one ingredient, or a combination of many? You'll need the right conditions: some heat with which to bake it, and before that, the sudden, frequently unpredictable appetite for just such a cake.
    Warren Kinsella has nothing to do with it. I was trying to think of a way to fit him into the whole cake thing, but no. The two are really quite unrelated.

  • John W.

    I continue to be amazed that the most accomplished intellectual, world recognized scholar, and all around idea guy, to ever become a Canadian party leader, talks about nothing but politics and inside Ottawa political strategy.

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