UPDATED/CORRECTED: Mark your calendars, everyone!

by kadyomalley on Wednesday, September 2, 2009 10:48am - 26 Comments

Alrighty, this has come up more than once in the comments, as well as the coverage of yesterday’s official launch of the fall election speculation season, so I figured it’s worth running through a few of the upcoming  days that may or may not live in infamy.

First, there’s the report from the EI panel, which, according to the PMO release announcing its beribboned creation last June, will “deliver recommendations to the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition and Canadians by September 28, 2009.” Notice that there is no explicit requirement that those recommendations be tabled in the House of Commons, although presumably, that would be one way to deliver them to “Canadians”.

With that in mind, ITQ predicts that the delivery mechanism will be the classic tersely-worded press release, mostly because she can’t imagine a scenario in which Marlene Jennings, Pierre Poilievre, Mike Savage and Diane Finley would be willing to share the stage — let alone the microphone — at a news conference to tell us all how they spent their summer holidays, but stranger things have happened.  Not much stranger, mind you, but still. Also, she continues to feel very, very sorry for poor Malcolm Brown, the sole civil servant on the panel, and believes that he should be preemptively exempted from any and all ensuing fingerpointing.

The week of September 28th — note correction, and thanks to Commenter Beaker for reading the fine print of the agreed-upon motion, which ITQ really should have done more carefully –  is also the deadline for the government to table in the House “a further accountability report” that meets all the requirements of the previous reports, with a Liberal opposition day to be scheduled two days later.

It’s worth noting that the Liberals are under no obligation to make that accountability report –or, for that matter, the EI recommendations — the subject of that opposition day motion, although considering that first Bob Rae, then Michael Ignatieff has said that the party will introduce a motion of non-confidence at the first opportunity, it’s hard to see how they can wriggle out of doing so when that opportunity presents itself, which could happen any time between September 30th and October 6th.  A vote on that non-confidence vote could take place later that same day, or be deferred until the following day — which, if the government tables its report on September 28th, would be October 1, 2009, which is, coincidentally, the same day that Elections Canada hands out the next round of quarterly allowance cheques.

(ITQ would like to extend her apologies to any and all of you who already had all these dates circled in red on the calendar, but after a sleepy summer of assuming the Liberals would fold like a bunch of deck chairs when the deadline rolled around, she’d pretty much forgotten the details of the June 17th detente between Ignatieff and the prime minister, so this post was as much an attempt to get her own head around the timeline for the next few weeks as a service to her readers.)

UPDATE/CORRECTION: So, according to a junior Liberal source, that opposition day will actually fall three days after the tabling of the report, which would bump the above timeline up by a day, and the post has been amended accordingly. In defence of ITQ’s reading comprehension skills, the ‘two sitting days’ comes directly from the twin draft motions posted on both the prime ministerial and Liberal websites, despite the fact that the actual text of the motion, as read into Hansard, specifies that it will take place on the  third sitting day.

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  • baldygirl

    I love how you speak about yourself in the third person—like Bob Dole, or Seinfeld's Jimmy.

  • jad

    You missed that as a number of commentators have pointed out, the Government can essentially introduce its own motion earlier than September 28th because there is a budget/ways and means bill to be approved. I think it's the one that covers the Home Improvement program.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      That's true, although it's a very narrow window. Notice is required for a ways and means motion — I think just one day, but it might be two — which means the earliest possible day to introduce it would be September 15th. Stephen Harper will be in Washington for his meeting with Obama on September 16th, and has a "speaking engagement" in the US scheduled for the next day. The House doesn't sit the following week — G20 stuff, apparently; it came up in the June 17th agreement — which takes us to September 28th.

    • http://nottawa.blogspot.com Mark

      Or they could prorogue.

      Again.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

    Some questions/comments re timing… First for the follow the money crowd, Will this

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tori…

    be sorted out in time for an election? Is it enough money to matter?
    Then there is the fact that most expect lots of Canadians will be sick if there is an election

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/doct…

    and there is the unfortunate possibility that Minister Raitt's opinion of the Health Minister was fairly accurate.

    it seems there will be a lot going on this fall

  • Cue

    Ya, not nauseating at all.

  • Kevin

    While we're marking our calendars, this fall would seem an awkward time for Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall to be visiting.

  • Mulletaur

    There's not going to be an election now that the Axis of Weasels has been revived. Fahgettaboudit. Not happening.

  • Beaker

    Kady – some clarification. Is the economic statement required on the 28th or the week of the 28th? If it is the week of the 28th, it could push the actual confidence vote to the following week.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      Careful — that's not an economic statement, that's the accountability report, but you're right, and I'll adjust my post accordingly!

  • Beaker

    Here is the wording:

    (ii) in addition to the accountability reports already required by the Liberal amendment to the 2009 Budget motion, the Government will prepare a further accountability report, meeting all the requirements of that said Liberal amendment, and table it in Parliament during the week of September 28th, 2009, to be followed by an allotted day for the Official Opposition two sitting days later; and

    Looks like they can do this any time that week and the motion is two days later. So they could do Wednesday or Thursday and push the confidence vote back into the next week.

  • Dakota

    Ignatieff can huff, puff, and stamp his feet all he wants but he can't force an election anymore then he can count Canadian time zones.

    No election this year. Sorry Bob, you'll have to wait your turn for awhile yet.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      That's true, Dakota. The Liberals can't. The opposition, however, can.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/john_g2708 john g

    CFRA was saying this morning that the Libs were willing to defeat the ways & means motion in mid September, which is confidence.

    What happens if they do that? Does that mean the home renovation tax credit goes up in smoke?

    • NinOttawa

      You bet it does! People need to read the small print on TV now!

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

      Beats me, the thing still hasn't been passed into law. I have no clue where and when something will be introduced on it. (ie whether it winds up getting stuffed into ways and means, or whether it winds up as seperate legislation)

  • anonymoose

    so, at the end of the day, we get to an Eday of November 9th or 16th, based ont he Sept 28 day or 2 weeks earlier if the ways and means gets defeated. don't book any vacation.

  • William

    Forget about the intentions of the Libs and NDP—–there is no reason for the Bloc to go to Election. It`s not like they are poised to sweep Quebec.

    The only reason the Bloc will go to Election would be that they already have a deal with the Libs that the Coalition will be revived and the Bloc will have leverage in a Lib-NDP gov`t—-which will be the end of the country as we know it.

    • anonymoose

      I don't think they care if they go or not. Gilles gets 36 days to bask in the lime light of the national media. they are hoping to pick up a couple seats I think. If they get a bigger percentage of the tunrout in la Belle Province, their quarterly cheque goes up. win win for them. Gilles will do whats best for Gilles.

    • dan in van

      Excepting in the drastic case that firewall-socalled leader Harper gets a majority, then the that will really be the end of the country as we know it. But breath easily, folks, that's a soylent green scenario…

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

    Where does the BQ stand in all this? If they're opposed to an election then Ignatieff's statements are impotent. And they're not likely to support an election in which the Libs stand to gain seats in Quebec.

  • an online reader

    If anybody wants to defeat this Canadian republic / reform alliance PMO propaganda machine they should hire the RCMP or investigative reporters to trace ip addresses of bloggers to American newspapers regarding medicare " horror stories " .

    In one newspaper an " Ottawa citizen " was telling how his sweet little mother had to wait one year for a simple physical exam . No mention that OHIP only pays for one complete physical / year . This same poor woman had to travel to Florida for surgery or she might never walk again . ( again no background info) To ice the cake in warnings to Americans that might suffer under medicare this poor lady can't find a family Doctor under our sytem . ( no mention of medical school drastic cuts or cuts in intern placements )

    If the NDP support people that would use donations of up to 80% tax credits for this I would find them no better than the little house of tories .

  • Ken S from Ramara

    Can the PM go to Rideau Hall today and ask the GG to dissolve Parliament? Now that Iggy has declared this parliament to be dysfunctional, using the precedent Harper established last year, this is what he should do. Let's get the ball rolling today so we can canvass in summer attire!

  • Mike

    So, help me out on the election day timing….

    As far as I read that Update on timing and Comments, no confidence motion would even be contemplated before September 28th. The "Accountability Report", not the EI Report, is the trigger for the non-confidence vote. The A-Report is to be issued on September 28th, 29th, 30th, Oct 1st, or Oct 2nd. (Silly question: Does "the week of Sept 28th" include only weekdays and all weekdays?)

    Then, the non-confidence motion will be tabled on October 1st, 2nd. 5th, 6th, or 7th. But, this can be deferred by one day (by what mechanism?).

    And then, the big question: Given those non-confidence vote dates, if the government falls, when does Harper have to inform the GG and when is the implied election date? How long can the election be delayed by if the GG, say, offers Ignatieff the post of PM (a la King-Byng)?

    In other words, what are the possible election days implied by this confidence vote timing?

  • Anon

    Another date for ITQ to consider: November 1.

    Mayoral elections in Quebec.

  • Passing Through

    Here's another timing consideration: the second wave of the swine flu could hit anytime after September. That would be a great add-on to any election campaign.

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