Seriously — right down to the decimal point. The symmetry is almost beautiful, really, in a madness-inducing way:
Conservatives: 32.6 (-)
Liberals: 32.6 (+1.7)
NDP: 16.5 (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois: 32.3*(-4.8)
Green: 9.9 (-1.4)
Undecided/Ineligible: 15.2 (+0.1)
… and just as ITQ was about to go off on a bitter tirade about mean-spirited, background-data-hording media companies and the polling firms that enable them, the full report popped up in her email, courtesy of EKOS. (Which still doesn’t get CBC off the hook, mind you. As far as ITQ is concerned, it’s just plain wrong to post the topline numbers without regional and demographic breakdowns. Wrong, and evil. ) (Especially the Bloc Quebecois numbers. Honestly, has anyone out there actually developed the ability to mentally convert a meaningless national number for the Bloc Quebecois into its actual standing in the only province in which it matters?)
So, EKOS President Frank Graves, what does it all mean?:
“As the last Parliament drew to a close, the public withdrew a slight but significant advantage that they had bestowed on the Liberals.”
“Irritated by the threat of another election, with little prospect of a qualitatively different parliamentary result, the public gave the Conservatives a slight but significant lead. This small lead persisted through most of the summer. Over the past few weeks the Liberals have drawn into a virtual dead heat, however. Notably the Liberals have also re-established an advantage in the crucial Ontario arena.”
“So as media interest begins to percolate, and the public inevitably and perhaps reluctantly return their attention again to politics, it appears that the race would now be handicapped as “pick ‘em” between the 2 main contenders.”
Hey, for this week — and possibly this week alone — we don’t have to call it a virtual dead heat anymore. It’s official! The heat, it could not possibly be — more deadly? That doesn’t sound right at all, although oddly appropriate, given the political climate at the moment. But if the public was “irritated by the threat of another election” over the summer, what does that auger for the Liberals as far as next week’s results? Or is the irritation meted out equally amongst all parties, on the logic that each and every party one bears some responsibility for the current state of multilaterally assured dysfunction?
Check back a little later for the full regional breakdowns — with +/- from last week, that little value-added mathematizing that ITQ throws in just for fun (“For kids!”), even though she’s well aware that the vast margins of error provide sufficient plausible deniability for any partisan looking to spin the numbers as a triple-cherry jackpot for their team.
In the meantime, though, the comment thread is open, so feel free to trade theories, observations and your surefire formulas to ensure victory and/or defeat.
UPDATE - As promised, the regional breakdowns!
British Columbia (MoE 6.7) (+0.3)
Conservatives: 35.3 (+3.7)
New Democrats: 25.5 (-1.8)
Liberals: 24.9 (-3.4)
Greens: 14.3 (+1.4)
Alberta (MoE 7.4) (-0.4)
Conservatives: 55.4 (-3.9)
Liberals: 25.7 (+7.2)
New Democrats: 10.8 (-0.3)
Greens: 8.1 (-2.9)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 9.3) (-0.8)
Conservatives: 46.3 (+1.6)
New Democrats: 25.9 (+5.4)
Liberals: 18.6 (-4.9)
Greens: 9.1 (-2.9)
Ontario (MoE 3.7) (+0.1)
Liberals: 40.4 (+3.4)
Conservatives: 33.1 (-3.9)
New Democrats: 15.6 (+1.4)
Greens: 10.9 (-0.9)
Quebec (MoE 4.6) (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 32.3 (-4.8)
Liberals: 30.9 (+4.7)
Conservatives: 19.4 (+4.4)
New Democrats: 9.8 (-1.3)
Greens: 7.6 (-1.2)
Atlantic Canada (MoE 9.5) (+0.7)
Liberals: 34.1 (-9.4)
New Democrats: 30.0 (+8.2)
Conservatives: 27.5 (+1.0)
Greens: 8.4 (+0.2)
So — the Liberals are surging — surging, you guys! — ahead in … Alberta? Really? Wow, that’s pretty much the definition of inefficient polling gains, given the likelihood that it will result in stealing even one seat away from the Tories (or the New Democrats) in the Big Blue Province. Meanwhile, they’re falling behind the NDP in both British Columbia and the Ekos-crated amalgam that ITQ likes to think of as Saskitoba, which is probably a bit of a downer, since that’s where they might be able to entertain wistful fantasies of winning back those fabled Liberal strongholds of yore in — wait, did the Liberals ever really have strongholds in Saskatchewan?
Moving onto Ontario, it’s the Conservatives’ turn to feel glum — that is, if they pay any attention to the polls; a charge that, like all respectable political parties, they will deny to the ends of the earth. Well, except for Ipsos-Reid, of course. (Oh, ITQ kids. Most Tories were just as sceptical as the rest of the world when that 11 pt boggler hit the floor.) Meanwhile, the Liberals are, once again, the first choice of the fickle denizens of the Place To Stand, the Place To Grow, although they’re not that far ahead, really, when you think about it. Not as far as they’d probably like to be, given their druthers.
Quebec — well, Quebec is Quebec. The Tories continue to creep ever so slowly upwards, although admittedly, it’s a steep climb, and this week’s numbers may be one of those occasional anomalies, since it’s hard to see how the Bloc Quebecois could have plunged by nearly five points in just a few days. (Yes, yes, margin of error. ITQ knows.)
Finally, the Liberal numbers experienced an even more precipitous drop in Atlantic Canada, sliding by nearly ten points, almost all of which was gobbled up by the still blissfully enDexterfied New Democrats.
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Correction: Conservatives' delays in assisting Canadians not a reason to avoid an election. It is the very reason to have an election.
As a Nova Scotian, I can't get enough of comments like "enDexterfied". "Saskitoba" is also great – is there any hope you can get on a nationally syndicated broadcast? More comments like this in the national conscience would improve the dialogue. I mean, Rick Mercer is funny, though even as a Newf descendant I am getting tired of him, but he has never used words like "Saskitoba".
More seriously – does anyone think, in any way, Harper can ever win a majority in Canada? I mean, in the face of the biggest collapse by the Liberal party in history, he still couldn't get his majority. He has had everything line up his, and his parties, way for his entire reign of terror, and still can't seal the deal. At what point does the CPC finally decide he is not going to be the one? I can't see him picking up any more seats that he already has. Unless they magically invent more seats in Alberta (which I wouldn't put it past them), I can't see where they are able to make any more inroads than they already have. Maybe if he didn't spend so much time actively torking off Quebec and Atlantic Canada he could pick up seats there. But I think he's reached the limit of his grasp.
Another gentle correction:
what does that auger for the Liberals as far as next week’s results
I think you mean augur…an auger is a type of drill or helical elevating device for moving grain.
maybe auger was meant as a data-mining metaphor
Or a subtle hint that perhaps the Liberals are augered….
word of warning – augers are not to be trifled. Operating the one man auger is something akin to chainsaw juggling.
word of warning – augers are not to be trifled with. Operating the one man auger is something akin to chainsaw juggling.
On the Atlantic numbers, if the NDP numbers really are rising (this being the second EKOS poll in a row showing that – which may come from oversampling Halifax) that's really bad news for the Grits. If NS really is in a post-Dexter swoon, it could mean a repeat of 1997, when the Grits were shut out in NS. I doubt the Tory vote will go anywhere, but NDP gains come exclusively from the Grits in these parts and, based on voting patterns from the provincial vote in June, Its possible that NS could return 7 Dippers and 4 Tories, or 6, 4 & 1, depending on whether of not Brison has enough star appeal to hold Kings-Hants. The other Grit names (Regan & Savage) are hardly world-beaters as they both went down to defeat back in 97.
I'm not sure the NDP numbers mean much beyond NS but, I wouldn't sleep soundly if I was Brian Murphy.
Given the number of provincial ridings that have swung from PC to NDP in the past decade, and the number of Dexter's Dippers whose provincial ridings are contained within federal Tory boundaries, I would not assume for one minute that "NDP gains come exclusively from the Grits in these parts".
Hell, given the number of FEDERAL ridings that were held by the NDP in 1988, and by the Reformatories from 1993 onwards, I wouldn't assume that NDP gains come exclusively from the Grits in ANY parts.
Well, my recollection from my time out west is that on the prairies (west of Winnipeg) the fight is between the Dippers and the Tories, so when the LIberal vote goes up, it takes votes from the NDP and Conservatives win.
Down here, on the other hand, where the battle lines have tended to be fixed for generations, the Dippers are the outlier and tend to take votes disproportionately from the Liberals. Conservative voters tend not to move as readily, especially now that the PCs and Reform/CA have stopped tryiing to pinch the others vote, thereby electing Liberals (Reform/CA were only ever competitive in NB, but could still bleed away enough Tory votes regionally to let the Grits win some seats, especially in 1993). As that's no longer an issue, I think the Grits have more to fear from the Dippers than the Tories do, with the possible exception of Central Nova (where the NDP have made strong challenges in the past).
Yeah, I've been wishing we had better numbers in the Maritimes. The recent swings have just been ridiculous (basically +/- 10% each week), so it's got to be in large part due to ridiculously small samples. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if your 6/4/1 numbers weren't ultimately right for Nova Scotia, but not sure what that says for the other Maritimes.
Not that much. PEI is a straight-up Tory/LIberal fight while the NDP have only ever shown any strength in eaastern & NE NB. Mr. Godin is an icon of those days. So if I was an NB Grit I might be concerned in Beausejour (although probably not that concerned – Dominic did lose to a Dipper in 97, but he probably has a lock on it). Moncton, however, is a much different story. A higher NDP vote would not be good news for Brian Murphy. He only won by 1200 votes against Dan Allain last year. The Grits are not very popular provincially these days, so if the NDP vote goes up, its likely to come at Murphy's expense.
Cumberland-Colchester remains a head-scratcher though. I really don't know how things will fall out now that Bill Casey has retired. It definitely won't go Liberal, but I can't say it won't go NDP.
It would be like matter and antimatter colliding. Huge explosion.
Why is Graves trying to sell the public on the horse-poop proposition that his decimal point matters?
(It doesn't).
As for the Dipper/Tory shift provincially, it could be something big (especially in Colchester County) or it might not be. The Dippers supplanted the Grits in and around Halifax back in the 90s. Their real breakthrough this year came by eating into the Tory precincts in Pictou and the Annapolis Valley. The Grit vote in these areas collapsed when John Savage was pushed from office. Federally though, Halifax and the Valley are LIberal & NDP ridings, so I expect a stronger Dipper vote will come at the expense of Mssrs Brison, Regan and Savage, rather than from Mssrs Keddy and Kerr.
Just to be clear — because it’s actually an important distinction — this is a ways and means motion, not a bill. W&M motions are not debateable or amendable — you just vote, and actually, it doesn’t even have to be a recorded division, although it looks like the government is gearing up to demand one, even if the Speaker gives it to the yeas on a voice vote.
Well then, the lead paragraphs of the CBC story are somewhat misleading….
"Stephen Harper's Conservatives could pre-empt a Liberal attempt to bring down the government as soon as Parliament resumes by tabling a motion of confidence on the highly popular home renovation tax credit.
The Conservatives need to introduce a budget ways-and-means motion some time in the fall that would allow the government to spend money and raise taxes. It is possible the Tories will introduce the motion on the first day of the fall Parliamentary session on Sept. 14, which could lead to another election as soon as mid-October."
Yep,
And its a motion that should have been voted on a long time ago, back with the other budget implementation stuff.
But instead, the Conservatives didn't have the paperwork done in time for summer but went ahead and advertised it anyway.
With respect to margins of error, I ran the Liberal advances/retreats through a statistical model computing odds ratios that anything is, in fact, changing in the provinces. While the national numbers give 6.6:1 odds that something non-statistical is happening (here: Liberals gain), the provinces/regions break down as follows:
B.C.: 3.6:1 odds that the Liberals are down
Alberta: 10:1 odds Liberals up
Saskitoba: 5:1 odds Liberals down (and 5:1 odds that the NDP are up)
Ontario: 9:1 odds Liberals up
Québec: 12:1 odds Liberals up
Altantica: 11:1 odds Liberals down
…of course, for those statisticians in the audience, those are without post-hoc corrections, so they're only accurate one-at-a-time, not all together. :)
P.S. Way to go on coining "Saskitoba"! I very much like it! :)