…of course, for those statisticians in the audience, those are without post-hoc corrections, so they're only accurate one-at-a-time, not all together. :)

P.S. Way to go on coining "Saskitoba"! I very much like it! :)

I mostly find it interesting that amongst university grads, there's a 10-point jump in voting for Liberals vs. those without a university-level education. All other parties are down – it's not even a left vs. right thing, the NDP and Greens fall significantly in that group as well.

There's the obvious potential link that those who are informed and intelligent are more likely to vote Liberal, but I'm more interested in other correlations – with education often comes wealth. Yet, the Conservative economic plans – drop in GST, the renovation tax rebate, TFSA etc – tend to benefit those with disposable income. One would assume the educated, who are more wealthy, would prefer a party whose plans help them directly, yet they don't.

As for age, real IQ increases each generation, so the elderly, to put it bluntly, are stupider than their children and grandchildren. Thanks to the internet (and their lack of internet or new-media savvy), they may not be better informed either – their only advantage is experience, which may not be overly relevant in an ever-changing world.

Cumberland-Colchester remains a head-scratcher though. I really don't know how things will fall out now that Bill Casey has retired. It definitely won't go Liberal, but I can't say it won't go NDP.

Down here, on the other hand, where the battle lines have tended to be fixed for generations, the Dippers are the outlier and tend to take votes disproportionately from the Liberals. Conservative voters tend not to move as readily, especially now that the PCs and Reform/CA have stopped tryiing to pinch the others vote, thereby electing Liberals (Reform/CA were only ever competitive in NB, but could still bleed away enough Tory votes regionally to let the Grits win some seats, especially in 1993). As that's no longer an issue, I think the Grits have more to fear from the Dippers than the Tories do, with the possible exception of Central Nova (where the NDP have made strong challenges in the past).

Hell, given the number of FEDERAL ridings that were held by the NDP in 1988, and by the Reformatories from 1993 onwards, I wouldn't assume that NDP gains come exclusively from the Grits in ANY parts.

(It doesn't).

I'm not sure the NDP numbers mean much beyond NS but, I wouldn't sleep soundly if I was Brian Murphy.

Care to elaborate on that thought?

what does that auger for the Liberals as far as next week’s results

I think you mean augur…an auger is a type of drill or helical elevating device for moving grain.

Harper has had plenty of chances to prove that he has what it takes to cooperate and govern in a minority situation. He has had some particularly striking examples since the last election, with denials about impending deficits, the Financial Update, the budget (and his trick of leaving the home reno out of the implementation bill), his G8 performance, and the EI panel. We can all draw our own conclusions about what Harper has proven in this regard. I, for one, am ready for an election whenever it comes.

And its a motion that should have been voted on a long time ago, back with the other budget implementation stuff.

But instead, the Conservatives didn't have the paperwork done in time for summer but went ahead and advertised it anyway.

"Stephen Harper's Conservatives could pre-empt a Liberal attempt to bring down the government as soon as Parliament resumes by tabling a motion of confidence on the highly popular home renovation tax credit.

The Conservatives need to introduce a budget ways-and-means motion some time in the fall that would allow the government to spend money and raise taxes. It is possible the Tories will introduce the motion on the first day of the fall Parliamentary session on Sept. 14, which could lead to another election as soon as mid-October."

Easy enough for them to say: "The Conservatives refused to provide any stimulus last November. We forced them to do it. They introduced this tax credit in January. We supported. Today the Conservatives have finally brought this bill in front of us. We will support it again. But friends, let's be clear hear, why has it taken the Conservatives so long to get this assistance approved? It took them 5 months to do anything about the economy. It took them 9 months to get this bill to us. Conservatives' delays in assisting Canadians a reason to avoid an election. It is the very reason to have an election.