Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

No coalition? Really?

by Paul Wells on Thursday, September 10, 2009 4:10pm - 220 Comments

Cherry-picking our friends at the Globe website:

Norman Spector points out that, when they’re not busy getting angry at Stephen Harper for accusing them of plotting a coalition, Liberals and their admirers keep pointing out that a coalition could be an excellent idea if it would keep Harper from a third quick little term as PM. This will, I am quite sure, be a repeating theme of the debate around Harper’s allegation: the same Liberals who will say, Perish the thought, are the ones whose caucus signed a unanimous letter supporting the idea. Watch what Liberals and assorted other critics of the Harper Conservatives write in the Globe’s op-ed columns during the last 10 days of an election campaign. I’m pretty sure it won’t all be variations on, “Boy, our side had better not form a coalition! That’d be sneaky.”

Rob Silver has been getting a lot of attention today for being the first prominent Liberal to attempt a strategic response to the Harper coalition attack: take the option off the table. The party with a plurality of seats after the next election, says Rob, should be the one that forms the government. Ignatieff should foreswear any attempt to ally with third parties to outnumber the Conservatives.

Really?

Let’s say, as a lot of people were assuming before the last half-dozen horse-race polls, the Conservatives lose a bunch of seats and the Liberals gain a bunch. That’s still a very real possibility. Now say it comes out 130 Conservatives, 125 Liberals, 35 New Democrats and 18 Bloquistes. (These are nearly random numbers. I don’t know what happened to the Bloc. It’s a thought experiment. Work with me.) How happy will Liberals be if Michael Ignatieff says, “Excellent news! Moving out of Stornaway was going to be a hassle anyway?”

I think something a little more sophisticated than, “Perish the thought!” had better start coming from the lips and pens of those who were eager to see Harper replaced by a coalition a year ago. (Incidentally I’m not sure Rob Silver falls into that category, but the gentle counsel to people who might want to copy his draft Ignatieff speech remains.) It’s pretty clear that, under some circumstances, an alliance of parties to replace the Harper Conservatives would be contemplated by members of those parties. They’re going to have to develop some kind of minimally consistent discourse about what those circumstances would be. Or Stephen Harper will fill that vacuum with bogeymen.

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  • Gary Findla

    I hesitate to attempt to join in here and get shouted down by " Iggy's Ignoramuses". First the government wasn't spending enough; now it is too much; they are irresoonsible and can't manage the county's finances; can't project the deficit; etc. Neither can any of the other experts but the facts are Canada leads the way on all the key fundamentals as we come out of this recession versus the major economic countries. The Liberals simply see an opportunity to try and gain power and take advantage of this. Iggy for me–not the people. Well now he may get a chance to make his stand at the the "little big horn before he goes back".

  • EricTheBread

    I would like to refer to John Stuart Mill’s comments on Conservatives. Given that most Conservatives are perpetually in their “ad hominum” mode of faulty reasoning I believe J.S. Mills words are quite apt to today’s political situation. So here’s a little quid pro quo…..

    Quote from J.S. Mill

    “I did not say that most Conservatives are generally stupid; I did say that most stupid people are generally Conservatives.”

  • AJC

    Does it matter what Ignatieff says prior to a vote? McGinty got away with some whoppers and has been Premier for a long time…Given your scenario, he could form a Government with the NDP and say "I meant I wouldn't form a coalition government with the Separatists…"

  • Gary

    We already have a Prime Minister leading a coalition. A Conservative, Reform, Alliance Coalition or CRAC .

  • Ferguson-Miller

    How can you beleive them. They sent us to Afghanistan (Chretien) and martin sent us to Kandahar. WE've lost a lot of good kids resulting from IED's. Then today we read this:

    OTTAWA — The Liberal party is under fire for offending Canadian soldiers with a flyer depicting a tattered Maple Leaf on a rucksack with the words “We used to wear it abroad with pride.”

    The partisan pamphlets — known as “10-percenters” — were greeted with outrage as they arrived in mailboxes in the Maritimes this week, including the New Brunswick riding where CFB Gagetown has sent members to fight and die in Afghanistan wearing the Canadian flag.

  • Ferguson-Miller

    This party is full of contradictory elements, revisionists ( Bob Rae denied that Ignatieff signed onto the coalition agreement) back stabbers ( the waring camps of Martin and Chretien are still there and Rae is actually setting Ignatieff up to fail and isolationists ( they refuse to leave their comfy Toronto offices and visit the rest of the country. yet they would enter into gang warfare in a second if it could result in a profit.

  • Ferguson-Miller

    What we need to know, well in advance, is what type of relationship would coalition parties have with the Bloc? Would the Bloc receive the same sweet signing bonus they would have had under the Layton led coalition? Would they have veto power over anything relevant to Quebec? Would other regions receive the same money as the Bloc? Would other parties have a veto over legislation? Would the part of the country which voted conservative be totally disenfranchised, bitter, angry and sufficiently motivated to make their voice heard in ways less fashionable by the Canadian establishment?

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/bazoo bazoo

    Did you read 2.? :|

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/avr avr

    I did read the second option, thanks. If you're going to lead with that rather radical premise, though, I think you'll find that suggesting 2. to be maybe another viable alternative (if there's whatever makes up "sufficient" cooperation) comes off as a little disingenuous – to say nothing of how it needlessly restates (in much vaguer form) the concept of commanding the confidence of the House.

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/avr avr

    I did read the second option, yes. If you're going to lead with that rather radical premise, though, I think you'll find that suggesting 2. to be maybe another viable alternative (if there's whatever makes up "sufficient" cooperation) comes off as a little disingenuous – to say nothing of how it needlessly restates (in much vaguer form) the concept of commanding the confidence of the House.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

    This was at the end of the Harris-Decima poll the other day:

    ….the poll suggests the coalition idea isn't necessarily the bogeyman Tories think it is; there are circumstances in which most Canadians would support it.

    If the next election results in a minority, 55 per cent said the leading partner should seek out a coalition partner to extend the life of the Parliament.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/AJR79 AJR79

    Well, no harm in admitting that before election day is there?

    The 45% who presumably said "No" to that question would be enough for a majority.

    Looks like a good boogyman to me, throw the Bloc in there and see how it polls.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

    http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls…

    What is the primary reason for the Liberal-NDP Coalition wanting to replace the Conservative Government?

    The plan to eliminate public financing for political parties 27 21 29 25 39

    The conservatives won the recent federal election and the Liberal-NDP coalition supported by the Bloc Quebecoise are acting in an undemocratic way trying to replace the Conservative government 42% Canada. Liberal 18%, NDP 7%, Green 35%, Bloc 9%, CPC 75%

    I will take 42% including from each confirmed voter from every party to stop the coalition.

    The opposition are welcome to split the 55%

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

    ” target=”_blank”>http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls…

    What is the primary reason for the Liberal-NDP Coalition wanting to replace the Conservative Government?

    The plan to eliminate public financing for political parties 27 21 29 25 39

    The conservatives won the recent federal election and the Liberal-NDP coalition supported by the Bloc Quebecoise are acting in an undemocratic way trying to replace the Conservative government 42% Canada. Liberal 18%, NDP 7%, Green 35%, Bloc 9%, CPC 75%

    I will take 42% including from 1-2% each confirmed voter from every party to stop the coalition by them staying home or voting CPC for an unecessary election..

    The opposition are welcome to split the 55%

  • RagingRanter

    Now that Ignatieff has explicitly ruled out a coalition, the Tories should be working on an ad where the camera zooms in on his signature on the coalition agreement last fall. His name won't be hard to find, with Iggy being "the very last Liberal to sign it" and all that.

  • http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis

    There's already a video clip out there with Iggy saying he'd be willing to head a coalition government. I think that might be more potentially damning than anything else.

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