Inkless Wells

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When you mess with the abyss until you're done, the abyss… well, guess

by Paul Wells on Thursday, September 10, 2009 11:59am - 60 Comments

From Reuters:

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Canadian Department of Finance announced it will hold a technical briefing on Thursday for reporters prior to a speech by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, suggesting an important announcement is coming.

The technical briefing will start at 2:30 p.m. (1830 GMT) and Flaherty’s speech is scheduled to start at 3:50 p.m. (1950 GMT) in Victoria, British Columbia.

Our sentiments exactly, Reuters colleagues. A requirement that reporters sign a non-disclosure agreement before receiving embargoed information is something we’re more used to seeing with budgets… or mini-budgets. Which is what leads us (well, me) to suspect that while the Prime Minister has had his parliamentary secretary and HRSD minister stall the blue-chip-ribbon EI panel, he’s been preparing another shoe, which will drop this afternoon.

Chess, anyone?

Tags: chess, gesundheit, Jim Flaherty, Nietzche

More by Paul Wells

http://intensedebate.com/people/john_g2708 john g

Is the 3:50 PM Eastern time or Pacific Time?
http://intensedebate.com/people/john_g2708 john g

Sorry, just noticed the GMT…looks like Eastern time. A few minutes before the markets close. Interesting…
http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

My guess: he's putting Stornoway up for sale on Kijiji.

http://intensedebate.com/people/sea_n_mountains sea_n_mountains

i really thought, Ebay was more his schtick Sean, but we will see.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/sea_n_mountains sea_n_mountains

i really thought, Ebay was more his schtick (no limits, highest bidder wins) Sean, but we will see.

Brammer

Mini-budget (confidence vote NOW)?
http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

It is confusing. The speech is taking place out West but the times listed are Eastern and GMT.

Do you have any inkling what the announcement is about, Wells? I assume it will have something to do with EI but I am hoping Flaherty has seen the light and will announce spending cuts to try and balance budget (I know, I know I am dreaming).
http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

I don't believe changes to employment insurance would require an embargoed lockup, and it would more properly be announced by Diane Finley, so your hopes may be about to be fulfilled. Okay, probably not the bit about spending cuts, but a plan to balance the budget sounds very plausible.
Bailey

Victoria makes me think it is going to be something with defence spending and navy ships.

Richard

Final HST agreement with British Columbia perhaps?

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/charlesh Charles H.

I have the strange feeling that you won't be hearing that particular acronym cross the Minister's lips.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

But doesn't the press lock-up suggest it's more than a giant cheque photo-op? It would have to be something that could give unfair advantage to those with prior knowledge (as John G. noted – it's just prior to market close, which might be clue).
Anon

My guess is that he'll push up the confidence vote to Sept 14 because he'd want the elections to be held before the Nov 1 mayoral elections in Quebec and before the opposition has a chance to beat him up in the House.
Mike T.

He's returning to his home planet.

http://www.TennisVagabond.com Big Dave S

That's funny

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis

Well, I"m going to go out on a limb and suggest that the finance minister will announce something important in relation to his actual portfolio – finance. Some of the suggestions here are more of a political nature or involve other portfolios.

Richard

He will probably declare that Canada is now officially exiting the recession that one year ago we were never going to enter.

Paul Wells

It’s an inherent advantage of being in government that while opposition parties can demand, only the government can act. It’s how Chrétien cut Stock Day off. You should have seen all the Harper PMO types at Eddie Goldenberg’s book launch.

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis

Which makes one wonder about Iggy's decision to go all-in so soon and so transparently. It forces him to vote against whatever the government does from now until the first opposition day.
Richard

On a related note, to Chretien's credit, he was also never one to broadcast his intentions a month ahead of time.
John W.

So was Iggy conned or where they both just using the EI ruse to buy time over the summer?
I agree it didn't make any sense for Iggy to lay out his plan so soon, and he should never have withdrawn from the committee.

Vince Clortho

or cancelled his trip to China

http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

It's an inherent advantage of being in government that while opposition parties can demand, only the government can act.

According to the punderatti though, the guy in charge is a poor innocent bystander with no ability to determine his future. Welcome to the new reality, Mr. Wells. Do try to keep up with the times from now on.
http://intensedebate.com/people/DeliciousLattes DeliciousLattes

while opposition parties can demand, only the government can act

That's interesting. So what would we call it when the media spends the summer, oh, let's say, whinging about the demands (or lack thereof) of the opposition and ignoring the actions (or lack thereof) of the government? Irresponsible? Lacking in substance? Chessgame-obsessed, perhaps?

Here's a question: The PM believes he needs a majority. Why is that? Based on its actions, what would the current government accomplish with a majority that it has been unable to accomplish with a minority? This strikes me as a question that intellectually honest journalists should pursue.
Calgary Junkie

This Flaherty announcement is an example of how Harper likes to surprise his opponents. Iggy now has to think fast on what he will say and do in reply to what Flaherty lays out.

Paul wrote a while ago about Paul Martin's inability to react quickly to surprises. That was in Aug 2002, when Chretien made his surprise announcement that he would be "stepping down" in Feb, 2004. Martin had to meet all night with his advisors, before giving a reaction. Iggy is kind of like Martin, re dithering and liking to consult on major decisions.

So yah, it looks to me like a chess move, but in speed chess, with a 24-hour clock ticking, as we await Iggy's move. Are Goodale and MacCallum around for advice ?

http://chuckercanuck.blogspot.com chuckercanuck

Just find McCallum his car (what, I drive that?) and he'll be good.
http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

This Flaherty announcement is an example of how Harper likes to surprise his opponents.

It's not a surprise though. Harper telegraphed it when he added John Williamson of the CTF to his communications team. You don't hire a guy like that if you plan to continue spending like a drunken sailor.

Calgary Junkie

We knew Flaherty's announcement was coming, but we thought it would be near the end of September. So the early date is the surprise part of it. Iggy has to scramble to get his financial advisors in a room, or whatever, to tell him what to say in reply.

Harper pulled the same kind of move on Dion, announcing a nation-wide address to the nation, and giving Dion only about 2 days to prepare for HIS address re the coaltion. We saw the resulting amateur video from Dion.

It looks to me like Harper is making all his moves sooner and faster than we expected. It's called putting maximum pressure on your opponent. I've played a lot of speed chess in my time, and understand the difficulty in making good moves when the clock is ticking away, and you are under attack from all directions.

Cow

Not that it really matters, but when did EDT become GMT-6?
Riley Hennessey

Is this announcement going to be a game changer, or is it going to be a boring announcement about debt control without cutting taxes?

herringchoker

Probably more like loading the starters' pistol. A little meat to make sure Iggy and Jack don't get all weak in the knees.

http://intensedebate.com/people/pogge pogge

According to a story that's just gone up at the Globe and Mail, Flaherty's going to lay out his plan for balancing the budget by 2015. Given his record, why we're supposed to believe that he can accurately plan five years ahead is beyond me. In fact, even if we're in recovery I wouldn't be surprised to see another recession before 2015. There's another round of real estate foreclosures due to hit in the U.S. where they're also busy building a new bubble based on bundling life insurance policies and calling them "securities." But, hey, what do I know.

Here's the Globe story:
http://is.gd/37dQL
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/pogge pogge

According to a story that's just gone up at the Globe and Mail, Flaherty's going to lay out his plan for balancing the budget by 2015. Given his record, why we're supposed to believe that he can accurately plan five years ahead is beyond me. In fact, even if we're in recovery I wouldn't be surprised to see another recession before 2015. There's another round of real estate foreclosures due to hit in the U.S. where they're also busy building a new bubble based on bundling life insurance policies and calling them "securities." But, hey, what do I know?

Here's the Globe story:
” target=”_blank”>http://is.gd/37dQL

Dakota

How do you control debt by cutting taxes?

http://intensedebate.com/people/charlesh Charles H.

You're misreading the 24 hour times.

1830 GMT = 6:30 PM GMT = 2:30 PM EDT
1950 GMT = 7:50 PM GMT = 3:50 PM EDT

So EDT is still GMT-4.

Matthew Fletcher

Correct.

Though this has to be one of the most confusing timing descriptions ever. We have an announcement made in the Pacific time zone with local EDT times listed. In parentheses there is the GMT times on 24-hour clock, when the other times are list on 12-hour. Then, the GMT time is listed, which technially is not being locally observed anywhere right now, as Britiain is still on Summer Time (BST) equivalent of Daylight Savings. So even though the Easter time zone is usually GMT-5, it is -4 in this case, because the local (but not local) times are listed on Daylight Savings Times.

I may have made several errors in that description, but I think that would just further make my case.

http://www.twitter.com/lobbycanada lobbycanada

"Chess, anyone?"

Ugh. Give me a break. The Harper-as-political-genius-chess-player is stupid. Government should govern, not constantly play political games.

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis

Then what was it that Ignatieff dud when he announced to the rest of the world that never ever ever again would he ever ever support the Harper government again, under any conditions whatsoever imaginable thinkable? This was an example of responsible opposition, was it?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

Here's a hint you partisan hack: while in your blindered view there may only be two sides, out in the real world it is understood that criticizing the actions of one party does not automatically imply supporting any other party. So stop with the pitiful cries of "But they did it too!" to try to justify your Glorious Leader's actions.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

Here's a hint you partisan hack: while in your blindered view there may only be two sides, out in the real world it is understood that criticizing the actions of one party does not automatically imply supporting any other party. So stop with the pitiful cries of "But they did it too!" to try to justify your Glorious Leader's actions.

Especially because Harper specifically campaigned on *not* doing it like the other guys.

Vince Clortho

I think Paul was making a joke, since the inevitable Con partisan positing was, "you idiots, he is playing chess while >insert opponent here< is playing checkers"

I think it was a pre-emption.

I had forgotten, thankfully, all about that Inkless, since it hasnt come up for some time….thanks for mentioning, you will be to blame if it flares up again.

John W.

I'm not defending Ignatieff for finally deciding to commit to voting against the Cons no matter what, but on this EI issue Harper stabbed him in the back.
It's hard to believe that Iggy might have actually thought the EI committee would be a sincere effort, Of course it wasn't, and now we know with the party working on alternatives it never was sincere not even for a second.
There's chess, then there's chess when the chair your opponent is sitting on drops through the floor.

Vince Clortho

He didnt…..look who he appointed as well….neither side was really serious.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

Whatever it is, Mr. Ignatieff does a crab walk to the nearest microphone, tucks his thumbs
into his pockets and mutters out of the side of his mouth – "See, this is what we achieve by
putting pressure on the government. I think we can support it. Send money please. "
http://intensedebate.com/people/SophiaGeffros Sophia Geffros

Hmm. *strokes chin thoughtfully* I suggest mini-budget, and they're trying to cut the Liberals off in their tracks.
MJ Patchouli

Can Harper really believe that after denying the recession, calling an illegal election, proroguing parliament when we needed action most, failing to provide stimulus, and refusing to work with other parties despite his minority status — can he really believe any Canadian who didn't vote for him previously now will?

And could any Canadian be so suckered?

Orson Bean

Thanks for the post from the Liberal War Room.
Sea Otter

Harper doesn't need any new voters. If the opposition forces a vote, and turnout falls, those same voters who gave Harper 143 seats a year ago might be able to give him 160 this time. A further split on the left, entirely possible when one considers that the Liberals were flirting with the low 20s for a while in campaign '08, would also give Harper his majority. Harper's vote is rock solid – can Ignatieff really say the same?

Orson Bean

I just read the latest wire story on this. It looks like the reason the Tories are doing this is to take away any obvious charge by the Liberals that the Tories "don't have a plan" to deal with the deficit. It's probably good political strategy, despite the fact that the Tories and the Liberals will both be talking mostly BS. The Liberals will attack Flaherty's "plan" as having no credibility. Note that this will put pressure on the Liberals to come up with their own "plan". The Tories probably (correctly) figure they can't really lose on this: if the Liberals actually come out saying they're going to raise taxes or impose new ones in order to reduce the deficit, it's like political manna from heaven for the Tories. If the Liberals don't say that, then their "plan" will be virtually indistinguishable from the Tories, voters' eyes glaze over and the Liberals have no advantage on this issue.
Vince Clortho

Just some Abyss context from some obscure writer

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/06/16/a-reminder-whe…

voice of reason

Is this the same government that promissed no deficits last year and then consistently failed repeatedly to provide accurate figures on the scope of the deficit. The PM is a second class economist from a bush league university (who was however wise enough to appreciate his lack of professional competance so that he has never actually practiced his profession … certainly not since he was elected) whose staff are even less competant than he is. Only the terminally stupid or the willfully blind (both of which are numerous in the CPC) would buy into the finance minister's "projections". His plans should begin with the line "once upon a time" and end with "they all lived happily ever after" like all fairy tales do.

Orson Bean

I wonder if Warren Kinsella's website is down today. Because he seems to be posting here.

voice of reason

No Mr. Harper this is not Mr. Kinsella's post. He is not the only true canadian who is repulsed by you and your administration. Unfortunately for you intelligent thinking Canadians are still in the majority which is why their opposite, members of the CPC, are and will remain a minority.
Max

Nothing impressive from Flaherty… You were not right, Mr. Wells…

Mulletaur

Diamond Jim : "These deficits as a proportion of GDP are small."

Huh ? We're at more than 3% of GDP, that is outside of the Maastricht convergence criteria, which is as good a benchmark as any. The Harper Conservatives : still just making it up as they go along.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

Let me guess . . . Flaherty is either going to spend a lot of money really quickly, or cave in to the Liberals on EI, or . . . hmm, that looks like it. Well, he's nothing if not flexible.
Gene Rayburn

EST
http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

Ah, interesting! On the premise that the opposition isn't as prepared for an election?
http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Flaherty lost his Ebay privileges when he tried to sell Bob Rae's cottage and downtown Sarnia as part of a package deal.
Mulletaur

This will be Diamond Jim's fantasy plan for reducing the deficit sometime before, well, who really knows. Perhaps 2014.

No doubt they will save the EI announcement for the campaign, when they think they can truly spike Iggy's policy guns.