Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

Don't break out the "Yippee! No Election!" party hats just yet, y'all

by kadyomalley on Saturday, September 12, 2009 6:31pm - 61 Comments

For anyone out there spending this weekend offering up prayers and sacrificing goats to the election gods, those are, indeed, soothing-sounding words that are pouring forth from Jack Layton on his desire to Make Parliament Work — a phrase that has, ITQ must once again point out, gone from being an irritatingly vague, but tolerable political cliche to what linguists refer to as a ‘discourse particle‘.

But a “former member of the prime minister’s communications staff who spoke on the condition that he not be identified” tells CanWest’s David Akin that Stephen Harper may remember all too well what happened the last time the NDP helped out a minority prime minister:

Harper, according to some of his advisers, believes Layton is now angling to do the same thing to him that Layton did to Martin: extract concessions to advance the NDP agenda, then withdraw that support and campaign on the party’s achievements in advancing that agenda.

“Harper will be damned before he lets Layton do that,” said a former member of the prime minister’s communications staff, speaking on condition he not be identified.

Darrell Bricker, president of pollster Ipsos Reid, says Layton’s strategy was a good one for 2005 — but it won’t work now. “He has to have somebody like Martin who’s afraid to go to the people,” Bricker said. “The problem he’s got with Harper is that Harper probably wants an election.”

Honestly, if that former communications staffer is right about what they’re thinking around the tactics table at Langevin, it’s hard to see how even the promised employment insurance reform package will Layton any more than a few weeks grace before he’ll have to make a very difficult decision — and that’s only if it includes something that he can at least claim reflects the will of the NDP, even though it would be difficult for him to take credit for it if he doesn’t even get a courtesy copy of the bill in advance, let alone any actual input as far as the contents.

But let’s say it does — heck, why wouldn’t the kitchen table party want to open up EI benefits to the self-employed, after all? Even then, there will be more confidence votes between next Friday and the Christmas break, and if the prime minister does want to go now — or, at least, isn’t about to lift a beckoning finger to Jack Layton in order to stave off defeat in the House — he could easily introduce legislation that the NDP would find impossible to support.

Meanwhile, by voting with the government, he’d be throwing away what has become one of his party’s most oft-repeated talking points in both the last campaign, and the lead-up to this one: that only the NDP can be counted on to stand up to the Harper government. They’re only too happy to remind all and sundry of those 79 confidence votes that the Liberals allowed the current government to win — what happens when the NDP tally rises from 0 to 1 to however many the prime minister throws in his path?

Tags: but they did it more!, mouseland: definitely not the happiest place on earth, the last temptation of jack layton

More by kadyomalley

Evalina

Please tell me there will not be an election this fall!

http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

Get your parents to write a note so you don't have to go.

Evalina

Hah, no such thing. I'll happily be voting if I have to, but for many many reasons, I would rather avoid an election.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Harbles Harbles

There will not be an election this fall.
But I'm probably wrong.
http://intensedebate.com/people/DaveFromToronto DaveFromToronto

My own belief is that we are going to keep having elections until something other than a Conservative minority is the result.

oppo guy

As a public service, allow me to give some substance to that vague “making parliament work” phrase.

There is a rather important distiction between “propping up” a minority government and “making minority government work”. Layton has drawn this very useful distinction in the past, though too few people have picked it up.

The former is the unfortunate practice of an opposition party to vote in favour of, or (as we saw rather creatively in the Dion era) abstain in numbers to allow, the governing party on a confidence matter to survive in exchange for nothing. The Dion/Ignatieff era has seen 79 such instances of rolling over for nothing.

“Making parliament work” is putting partisanship aside from time to time so that everybody gets part of their agenda through. It’s the ordinary deal making that goes on in every mature legislature on earth. It’s what every party leader says they will do after an election. It also happens to be what Jack Layton has been doing for most of his adult life: from his ealiest days as a municipal councillor, through to his agreement for transit, education and housing money from the Liberals, through to the Residential Schools apology.

If anyone has the leadership skills to keep the 40th parliament alive, it’s gunna be Jack Layton. And he’ll do it on his terms. Perhaps, if Harper looked at the electoral math, he’d think more like Paul Martin, and less like David Peterson.

John

I promise to consider this view — yet it's tough to do. It's a long way and a lot of years between Toronto Ontario and Hudson Quebec.
wilson

'The Dion/Ignatieff era has seen 79 such instances of rolling over for nothing.'

But those are called markers….''when we win the election, we will reverse or repel the bill that just passed''
In the case for MI, replace 'we' with 'I'.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

Thanks. runs to sink….frantically rinses out eyes.
http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

I just posted this quote from Layton on my blog.

"Layton said his party, unlike the Liberals, is determined to make Parliament work and will not oppose the government for the sake of opposing. He refused to get drawn into threats about defeating the government if Harper ignores opposition priorities, preferring to wait and see."

It sounds pretty much the same as what he's saying now but he said it on March 24, 2006. The guy hasn't changed his tune in 3-1/2 years despite the claims to the contrary made by people who simply haven't been paying attention.

Evalina

but it doesn't like we won't have an election!
http://intensedebate.com/people/AJR79 AJR79

Just like when he opposed the budget before reading it.

Does not reading things before deciding how to vote against them fufill the quote you just provided?

I think I've been paying attention just fine, thank you.

http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

I think I've been paying attention just fine, thank you.

Really? If that's the case then perhaps you can tell me why the Liberal voting record campaign was started by the NDP.

Richard

From 1993 to 2006 the NDP voted with the Reformers 1,897 times. Shame.
wilson

I'll take a guess,
because of those 'Thanks Jack' daycounters on Liblogs,
tallying up the days Harper has been in government.

dan in van

Yes, the times that the Liberals sided with the CONs, whether thru agreement or to avoid an election, were all evidence of weak-kneed, undemocratic self interest. Now that Layton and comrades are to pick up the baton of saving Harper's butt, its about cooperation and avoiding an unwanted election.
I guess the definition is in who's writing the pablum at the NdP office…
wilson

Yah right dan in van, Liberals and Dippers vote with the government for the sole purpose of saving Harpers butt!
Then claim they are making parliament work, or that's what Canadians want!!

Jack better get a handle on ….neither MI nor PMSH will be push overs like Martin and Dion.
http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

That's a pretty good guess, wilson. Bringing up the Liberal voting record was initially just a response to liberals who were falsely blaming the NDP for propping up the Conservatives. It then morphed into a full campaign that's antagonized liberals for nearly two years. Essentially, liberals were hoisted on their own lying petards.

Judging from the lying rhetoric coming from liberals the last few weeks, they're clearly begging for a repeat of that painful experience.
http://intensedebate.com/people/AJR79 AJR79

I doubt it will ba as painful as the NDP seat count, if we have a fall election.

http://intensedebate.com/people/AJR79 AJR79

So he did change his tune to those of us paying attention.

Not sure how a pissing contest between Grits and Dippers is supposed to justify not reading the budget, while claiming that the quote you provided accurately reflects Layton's disposition in the house.

As usual Jack talks a good pablum, but his actions do not always reflect his words.

You don't need to point out to me that this is the case for all pols, but the idea that Jack and the NDP are above it, is orange propaganda.

Mikael C.

or he could just sit out, refusing to vote for an election but not voting with Harper.

wilson

Abstention, doing hallway time.

http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

Look where that got Dion…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

At this point I think it would take Thomas Edison, most of the Manhattan Project, and several Corleones to Make Parliament Work.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Nich Nich

Layton was made an offer he can't refuse

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

Harper: "How ya doin'?"
Layton: "How ya doin'."
Harper: "Gonna make trouble?"
Layton: "Fuhgeddaboudit."

Anon

I think we're reading too much into Comrade Layton. He is just being a sanctimonious fop, much like the other NDP MPs.
Gawd

why wouldn’t the kitchen table party want to open up EI benefits to the self-employed, after all?

its too easy to engineer your own failure in business.

wilson

Why would the kitchen party want EI reform that 'excludes' maternity and sick leave?
Not vulnerable enough?
http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

Maybe it's time I returned the phone calls of all those semi-distant friends who want to tell me about Amway, this fantastic business opportunity. Heck, if it fails, bring on the federal gravy…

http://intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

Methinks this un-named former adviser is being a little too cute.
Anything that could strengthen the NDP at the expense of the Liberals is something that Harper will like.

So maybe Coyne is right after all? And if he proves correct and there is no election this year, then Iggy and his strategists have just been proved to be geniuses:
Without triggering an election they have escaped the "grand coalition" the Liberals allowed themselves to get bullied into for the past three years.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

Methinks this un-named former adviser is being a little too cute.
Anything that could strengthen the NDP at the expense of the Liberals is something that Harper will like.

So maybe Coyne is right after all? And if he proves correct and there is no election this year, then Iggy and his strategists have just been proved to be geniuses:
Without triggering an election they have escaped the "grand coalition" the Liberals allowed themselves to get bullied into for the past three years.

Jeez this 3-dimensional chess get complicated!

John

Yeah, a capture on one level is an en passant on the next.

http://twitter.com/KennChaplin @KennChaplin

Jack fed some news to starving weekend journalists. He's making Parliament work, alright, just like the digestive system.
Laurie

I think the NDP are trapped. They'll lose seats to the Liberals if there is an election. Hence, suddenly they'll bend over backwards to make Parliament work. I don't think they'll be an election. Smart tactics by the Liberals — way to go, it's about time that they stopped supporting Harper and his gang.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

"poring forth from Jack Layton"?

There's an image I didn't need. "Look! He's popping another whitehead!"

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

i so, so very deeply apologize for that mistake, and will correct it immediately to spare you any further such imagined horrors.

MikeG

I hate to point out another one, but I think you missed a word in here… either that, or on top of discovering a new discourse particle, we've also elevated Layton into a verb:

"… it’s hard to see how even the promised employment insurance reform package will Layton any more than a few weeks grace …"

http://aaronbroad.com Aaron Broad

The conventional wisdom is Harper is eager for an election, since the economy has hit bottom, and he can run on the recovery he has created. This is simply not the case. Come October it will be obvious there is no bottom in sight, let alone a recovery. US and China are entering a trade war. China is not going to pay the American banks for derivatives. Its going to heck and a hand basket out there.

Harper does not want an election, and will save his soul to stave one off. The only reason Jack doesn't want an election is he has no campaign ready. However, he will not be put in the position of propping up Harper until its obvious the economy has gone off a cliff. It would be disasterous for his party. His best strategy is to let the Liberals have a minority win ASAP, and then campaign next year that they're not radical enough a shift from Harper to fix this country.
http://skinnydips.blogspot.com Skinny Dipper

Aren't the Conservative "Action Government Plan" ads great propaganda?

http://aaronbroad.com Aaron Broad

You'd expect to get some goot agitprop when you double spending on advertising, and have it use all the same words as your own campaign brochures.

wilson

Maybe those cabinet seats have gone bye-bye and Jack has turned to the only man that can actually give him something in return for his support.
or
'If you want more NDPers in parliament' yah gotta show you are able to work with the government, even if it isn't Liberal
(I do not lead a rump party!)
or
14 (38%) out of you 37 seats are in Western Canada….not coalition friendly (Libs have only 7 (9%) seats in WC)
Oh yah, and Canadians don't want an election.

an online reader

OTTAWA – The Harper Conservatives plan to reduce the deficit by levying $19 billion in higher taxes on workers and their employers, says New Democrat Finance Critic Thomas Mulcair.

“In the fiscal update Finance Minister Flaherty released on Thursday, he showed that he plans to raise $19 billion in new revenue by increasing the Employment Insurance payroll tax. Yet he’s telling Canadians the opposite, that he won’t raise taxes,” said Mulcair. ( the man Jack turned to ? )

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

Harper wants an election? Then why is he making life difficult for the NDP? The more credibly anti-Harper the NDP can get, the more it benefits Harper by taking votes from the Liberals. I don't see how this NDP-cuddling is anything but Harper's attempt to survive a confidence vote.

wilson

And you think cuddling up to MI makes Dippers feel comfortable?
Dippers feel the same about a coalition with MI as 'their surrogate leader' as they did about Dion?

Nah.
sbt

Well, I could argue it the other way. The less scary the NDP and Harper make Harper seem, the less likely the NDP vote is going to migrate to the Liberals in order to beat Harper at all costs. Harper and Layton both have a self-interest in making left-leaning voters comfortable with a possible Conservative victory and both have a self-interest in making Ignatieff seem no different than Harper. Then, the election can be spun as a Liberal power grab that will ultimately change nothing and all the left-leaners who want to vote NDP can do so with a clear conscience.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

I see what you mean — hadn't thought of that!

dan in van

Considering the depths of Harper and Flaherty's hole (economically speaking), how do we know that Layton hasn't been pulling the strings all along? I think I saw this episode on Star Trek once…
an online reader

Soothing Fri 11 Sep 2009 Conservatives plan to raid Employment Insurance once again OTTAWA – The Harper Conservatives plan to reduce the deficit by levying $19 billion in higher taxes on workers and their employers, says New Democrat Finance Critic Thomas Mulcair.

“In the fiscal update Finance Minister Flaherty released on Thursday, he showed that he plans to raise $19 billion in new revenue by increasing the Employment Insurance payroll tax. Yet he’s telling Canadians the opposite, that he won’t raise taxes,” said Mulcair.

wilson

Well then the LibDippersBLOC had better band together to change the EI legislation!
The EI program is designed now to NOT run surpluses and be self sustaining.
Where do you think the money would come from when the legislation reads 'self sustaining'?
Libs already raided the $54 Billion surplus to fake budgets, including their last one in 2005. The EI well is dry.

Terren

When might we find out if Layton and the NDP will actually prop up the Conservatives?
hosertohoosier

I'm not sure why people believe that it would be a huge betrayal for the NDP to ever support the Tories on anything (yes, accounting for their election rhetoric). Conservative reforms to EI are an improvement over the status quo, and one it seems the Liberals are determined to kybosh. Given that an election would likely return the Conservatives again ANYWAY, and that we can always go to the precipice of election in another few months, it strikes me as incredibly stupid for the NDP not to back the Tories this time.

Lose seats today and lose EI reforms vs. possibly not lose seats tomorrow and keep EI reforms. Hmmm.

an online reader

"Canada’s military is earmarking almost $4 billion for the purchase of a fleet of futuristic fighter jets that will replace its CF-18s in the next decade." "Through this strategy, the government has committed $240 billion in non-personnel related defence materials over the next 20 years." "fulfilling campaign promises to rebuild the nation's military by going on an unprecedented $15 billion peacetime spending spree on heavy transport planes, helicopters, ships and trucks. " "Canada's military budget for 2008 was $18.2 billion."(Isreal $13 billion) "The military mission in Afghanistan could cost a total of $18.1 billion or $1,500 per Canadian household by 2011"
wilson

It's Liberals feeling betrayed because Dippers are supposed to be permanently attached to their butts,
available for use at will.

Gawd forbid Dippers ever become a stand alone party.

scf

I do believe, Kady, that a while back you were wondering why this had not happened:
http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/rss/articl…

Vince Clortho

Fair question, wrong thread.

But it would be nice to see some appropriate corrective space given to this. Maybe a few questions would be asked as well, like did the story get published from notes from the Opposition War Room. It really si a question of where the factory that created this story was, was it in the Telegraph editorial room or where they merely the car dealership.

But once again, wrong thread.

an online reader

Buy Manhattan with blankets & beads ?
"Canada’s military is earmarking almost $4 billion for the purchase of a fleet of futuristic fighter jets that will replace its CF-18s in the next decade."
" the government has committed $240 billion in non-personnel related defence materials over the next 20 years."
"The military mission in Afghanistan could cost a total of $18.1 billion or $1,500 per Canadian household by 2011"

Nato & Obama asking Canada & others to extend Afghanistan past 2011 . Only a Con majority will enact extension or sign these military purchases now . Thats a hummmmmmmmm
Riley Robertson

Parliament will never work as long as the reform party is in power. Their values are american republican values — obsessed with crime and punishment (revenge) yet not understanding that independent judges are the basis of our freedom, leaving people to fend for themselves when outside the country, the idea that money should confer power, disdain for anything other than white "judeo-christian" voters — who donate money … you know, the usual stuff. When you appoint a young-earth christian fundamentalist as science minister, appoint a former arms dealer as defence minister (not McKay … the guy before him) and a finance minister who can't add, you have the makings of a small, provincialist, petty country. I would vote every single day if it gave me an opportunity to throw out the schoolboys.

scf

It's been working for 3 years.

Mulletaur

" … what happens when the NDP tally rises from 0 to 1 to however many the prime minister throws in his path?"

Matthew 13:42.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

13:42 And shall cast them into a furnace of fire: there shall be wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Heh. Good one.