Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

EKOS: Deadlock picked? (35.1/29.9/16.5/9.0/38.9)

by kadyomalley on Thursday, September 17, 2009 8:52am - 79 Comments

So, based on these results, as well as the numbers we’ve seen from a few other pollsters whose names do not begin with the letter I,  it looks like we’ve got ourselves a five point gap between the two leading contenders (insert wounded grumbling from already tender NDP supporters here):

Conservatives: 35.1 (+0.9)
Liberals: 29.9 (-0.9)
NDP: 16.5 (+1.8)
Green: 9.0 (-1.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.9 (-0.9)
Undecided/Ineligible: 13.3 (-1.6)

I’ll put up the regionals once I’ve had time to plow through the data tables, but really, the numbers haven’t shifted all that much. Which is kind of surprising, actually, considering all the sound and fury emanating from all sides that marked The Return of Parliament (But For How Long?), not to mention the public uprising that was allegedly brewing over The Election Nobody Wants (And May, As It Turns Out, Have Been Staved Off For The Moment) and, of course,  the dark rumblings over The Anti-Democratic Coalition They Want Even Less (Or So We Are Constantly Informed). Is anyone out there still paying attention, or have y’all (well, not y’all, of course) just given up?

Anyway, once again, the bonus questions provide the most scope for speculation and analysis, at least as far as ITQ is concerned.

First, there’s the always fascinating question of what eventual electoral outcome respondents feel would be “best”:

Liberal minority: 14.0
Liberal majority: 25.4

Conservative minority: 8.1
Conservative majority: 27.8

That works out to 39.4% in favour of some sort of Liberal government, compared  to 35.9% for a Conservative configuration; it’s interesting that, despite the conventional wisdom that Canadians — even non-Conservative-supporting Canadians — are reasonably comfortable with the current setup, a Conservative minority is actually the least favoured option of the four. Meanwhile, at 24.7%, “none of the above” is a close third. Hey, Canadians: remind ITQ why it is that y’all don’t want an election? Because honestly, you really don’t seem all that thrilled by the status quo, and she’s starting to suspect that, when posed that particular question by pollsters, your short, sharp “no” in response may be at least a little bit Pavlovian.

The breakdown by party leaning is even more of a brow-furrower: Although 77.1 percent of Conservative leaners want to see Stephen Harper get that majority — compared to just 65.7% of Liberals who say the same about their party — outside the CPC column, support for any sort of Conservative government — minority or majority — is in the single digits.The Liberals, on the other hand, get what is likely a somewhat grudging nod of approval from between 30 to 35 percent of those who plan to vote for one of the other three parties, and are even a teensy weensy bit ahead of the Conservatives with the undecided.

Of course, since 56% of those same undecideds went with “none of the above”, who really knows what they imagine when asked to envision the best possible House of Commons?

Finally, it turns out that it’s not the leader or the local candidate that has the most influence over how Canadians may eventually cast their respective ballots: It’s the party platform. I know, apparently, we’re a nation of policy wonks: 42% of respondents say it’s the “most important factor”, compared to 22.3% who choose based on the leader, 16.9% who, bless their anachronistic little souls, vote for the local candidate, and finally, the cards-close-to-their-chest-keeping 18.7% who went with none of the above.

Those numbers are consistent across party lines, by the way; the undecideds, however, are markedly less likely to take the leader into consideration.  Oh, undecideds. You really are the strangest and most charmed flavour of quark.

Anyway, that’s enough thread fodder for the moment, I think — I’ll update this post when I figure out the regional breakdowns, but feel free to go all armchair pollingologist in the comments in the meantime.

UPDATE: Look! Regionals!

British Columbia (MoE 5.57)
 Conservatives: 36.0 (+1.1)
NDP: 26.7 (+5.8)
Liberals: 25.0 (-6.3)
Green: 12.3 (-0.6)

Alberta (MoE 6.27)
 Conservatives: 60.1 (+3.3)
Liberals: 18.6 (+0.2)
NDP: 11.4 (-3.4)
Green: 9.9 (-0.1)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 6.98)
 Conservatives: 43.9 (-5.5)
Liberals: 26.6 (+0.7)
NDP: 20.1 (+3.9)
Green: 9.4 (+0.7)

Ontario (MoE 3.03)
 Conservatives: 40.1 (+1.7)
Liberals: 35.5 (-1.0)
NDP: 15.4  (+1.7)
Green: 9.0 (-2.4)

Quebec (MoE 3.74)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.9 (-0.9)
Liberals: 27.1 (-0.6)
Conservatives: 16.0 (+0.5)
NDP: 10.5 (+0.7)
Green: 7.6 (-0.6)

Atlantic (MoE 6.61)
Liberals: 37.5 (+5.3)
Conservatives: 28.7 (-2.3)
NDP: 28.2 (+1.7)
Green: 5.5 (-4.9)

As above, so below: No major shifts, really — at least, nothing that isn’t well inside the margin of error. Liberals are sliding in British Columbia, but have regained the lead in Atlantic Canada, and the Conservatives are down in Saskitoba for some reason. (Any idea, prairie-dwellers?)

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  • jarrid

    "42% of Canadians say party platform is the most important factor"

    The parties' platforms by far trumps any other factor as to how Canadians will vote.

    Liberals, ye policy-less party, are you listening?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

      That's what they SAY is most important, but I think just about all political behaviour these days is geared towards impressions of the leader.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Nich Nich

      Well at least it is easy to compare platforms for the two big parties.

      Conservatives – " "
      Liberals – " "
      NDP – "Supporting hard working kitchen tables"
      Bloc – "Whateva"

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

      Large numbers of Canadians also say they floss every day.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      If we're talking about election platforms, to be fair, you should point out that not one of the parties has provided one, and likely won't until there is an election, although these results suggest that coming out with it early could give the party brave enough to do so at least a temporary advantage.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

        Or maybe they won't reelase one until after the debate! Wouldn't that be something?

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/geogine geo

          LOL!

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Savant Savant

        True Kady, but the Tories get the advantage of being able to run on their record. Whether a person agrees with what the Tories have done is irrelevant, one can point to what they *have* done and use it to suggest that they will do more of the same. This can both work for and against the ruling party though.

        The Liberals don't have the luxury of waiting until the writ drops to tell voters of their plans. The longer they remain an 'unknown' to voters, the longer it will take for the public to 'get to know' the Liberal party and their new leader.

    • John W.

      People tell the pollster/caller what will make them feel good about themselves as citizens, and also what they think the caller wants to hear. I'm a good citizen, I've agreed to take the time to answer these questions, I look at platforms not silly commercials and the colour of the leaders sweater. Of course, it's not true.

    • Jesse A

      They may say that, but in the last election the Conservatives barely even released a party platform and they got reelected…..

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

        Except that any incumbent government runs on its record, which I think can be seen as a platform in some way. This is what we've done, judge us on that.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

    I'm going to have to disagree that we haven't seen a shift in the polls. We went from a tie in the summer to at least a five point Tory lead right now. And if you go back to even before the summer, Iggy has even lost a lead he once had.

    Frankly, I don't think polls matter too much without an imminent election. But I think the polling suggests that Ignatieff has his work cut out for him in convincing Canadians he should be prime minister. In fact, they seem to be losing excitement over the idea, especially in Quebec.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      Oh, if that was in reference to my post, I just meant that there hasn't been much of a shift from last week's EKOS numbers. Which really, there hasn't been.

  • http://sean-cummings.ca Sean Cummings

    Kady wrote:

    "Hey, Canadians: remind ITQ why it is that y’all don’t want an election? Because honestly, you really don’t seem all that thrilled by the status quo, and she’s starting to suspect that, when posed that particular question by pollsters, your short, sharp “no” in response may be at least a little bit Pavlovian. "

    I think that we see basically two steaming piles of dung – one led by Harper and one led by Iggy, (or insert Stepane Dion's name, or Paul Martin, or Brian Mulroney for that matter) and we shrug our collective shoulders whilst saying "meh", they all suck. This manifests, for example, by more and more voters simply withdrawing from voting altogether because, seriously, what's the freaking point?

    The national media (yes, you too, Kady) seems far more interested in reporting on election speculation or the latest poll or who committed the latest political blunder as opposed to reporting on issues that matter to Canadians. Now the level of partisanship and political posturing has increased by leaps and bounds under Harper's tenure, but there's no reason to believe that were he to be replaced with a Jim Prentice that we'd still be hamstrung by election speculation as the news du jour if we continued along with minority governments.

    At the heart of the matter is the fact that it does cost over $300 million to run an election and there IS this nasty old economic downturn that seems to be on everyone's lips these days. Why don't we want an election? Because we want the @#$%tards in Ottawa to start doing their damned jobs. We want the media to start reporting something other than "when will the government fall" and we want to see something resembling decorum emerge from our national parties – and no, all you Tory and Liberal partisans, we don't really care who started it. Get your heads out of your collective asses and start governing instead of putting your party's needs ahead of, you know, the great unwashed who deserve far better from everyone in Ottawa.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

      Feel better?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      Okay, so what is it that you actually want them t odo? "Their jobs" and "govern" aren't really all that helpful, as answers — not to mention that, for the majority of MPs, the two are mutually exclusive. What sort of legislation would you like to see the House pass? What can they actually do to address the economic downturn? I understand that Canadians are frustrated by what they see as a careening, purposeless Commons, but it's far from clear whether there is anything even close to unanimity on what they actually want said Commons to do, given the current parameters under which both the government, and the opposition are operating?

      • http://sean-cummings.ca Sean Cummings

        Leadership in a minority parliament, Kady, requires that governments set aside political posturing and collaborate. Period. So far we haven't seen that, and frankly, I suspect most voters would be far more interested if our national media were to report why they aren't collaborating and hold them to account for not collaborating as opposed to simply enabling the bad behavior by reporting on election speculation. What you're espousing Kady is that because there is no unanimity, then nothing at all can happen. If you're suggesting that parliamentarians look to Canadians for an idea as to what we want from our government, then we can chuck the idea of leadership out the window. What kind of legislation do I want passed? That's the wrong question, Kady. It should be, "What kind of legislation do you @#$%tards propose and what are you going to do in this minority Parliament to bring that legislation in?" When they predictably respond "it's not us, it's them", the media needs to call BS on it immediately because frankly, that's not good enough.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

          "if our national media were to report why they aren't collaborating"

          You mean if there were some media outlet that faithfully reported the proceedings of Question Period, liveblogged committees, and included an editor who openly admits to loathing the nasty side of politics?

          If only…

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

          Isn't that what parties do during an election campaign, though? Put forward a vision of what kind of legislation they would bring forward? I think we *do* hold them to account for not collaborating, but that inevitably leads to speculation over an election, because when governments are unable to collaborate with a majority of MPs, they lose the confidence of the House, and off to the polls we go. It really is that simple. I'm not sure why you're so hostile to the notion of a government — or, indeed, an opposition party in a minority parliament — "looking to Canadians for an idea of what [they] want," since the alternative seems far less likely to address the myriad issues that arise — or persist — during its tenure. But I'm not a parliamentarian, so why shouldn't I be able to ask the question — what is it, specifically, that you want this House and/or the government to do that is not being done now?

        • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

          Isn't that what parties do during an election campaign, though? Put forward proposals, or at least an idea of what kind of legislation they would bring forward? I think we *do* hold them to account for not collaborating, but that inevitably leads to speculation over an election, because when governments are unable to collaborate with a majority of MPs, they lose the confidence of the House, and off to the polls we go. It really is that simple. I'm not sure why you're so hostile to the notion of a government — or, indeed, an opposition party in a minority parliament — "looking to Canadians for an idea of what [they] want," since the alternative seems far less likely to address the myriad issues that arise — or persist — during its tenure. But I'm not a parliamentarian, so why shouldn't I be able to ask the question — what is it, specifically, that you want this House and/or the government to do that is not being done now?

          • http://sean-cummings.ca Sean Cummings

            "Isn't that what parties do during an election campaign, though?"

            Yep – and we had an election less than a year ago. You're suggesting that the media's attempts to hold them to account for not collaborating leads to election speculation, but I disagree. The question needs to be asked in a much more direct manner of all our politicians – "is this the absolute best you can do?" Come on Kady, you know that everything in Ottawa is precisely ABOUT winning an election and has nothing at all to do with what is best for Canadians. That's the real issue and one that our press gallery enables on a daily basis by playing in the sandbox with them.

    • Hanging Out

      Also, $300 million in an election mostly goes to salaries that people will spend, which makes it a good stimulus program. We're always shovel-ready for elections.

  • jarrid

    Angus Reid came out with a poll yesterday showing the Conservatives at 36% and the Liberals 29%. The same poll show the Conservatives have a 12 point lead in Ontario.

    Ekos and Angus Reid wiere the two pollsters with the best record in predicting the '08 election.

    Clearly the trend in the last few months shows a strong Conservative momentum.

    That's why MI will be MIA in the next little while. These poll numbers have killed his appetite for any election any time soon.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

      I think you are largely right here except for your suggestion that there is momentum. To the contrary, all that has happened is that is that cottage owners have come back to town and answered pollsters calls again.

      And now we sit and wait to see who will be foolish enough to force an election so that we can get exactly the same result we had last time. (Except that a certain leader will have to resign afterward. Note to Iggy, your fellow LIberals are standing behind you. That could mean they really support, it could also be that they are just waiting for a bus to push you in front of.)

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

      Fair comment….but now the polls show similar national results but divergent Ontario results, they both can't be right in theor predicitions of the larger polity, at least for Ontario…..and much of the look of the next Government will be decided there and in BC, assuming the rest is relatively frozen in the support.

      I think all that we can divine is the tories have a statistically significant lead and that this is a change form the early summer. Everything after that is a bigger guess than the slightly informed one I just made

  • John W.

    So what will be the lasting effect of Ignatieff's move to oppose the Government and drive the NDP and Bloc into supporting the Conservatives? Leaves Iggy free to attack the Government unrelentingly and and propose new programs and generally play the government in waiting role.
    Also takes a lot of wind out of the Conservative anti coalition attacks. In fact the last attack ad against Ignatieff based on the coalition looks a bit ridiculous given the NDP and Bloc decisions this week.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

      Leaves Iggy free to attack the Government unrelentingly and and propose new programs and generally play the government in waiting role.

      Well, we know that Iggy can do the first part. We don't know if he can do the second part.

      I also don't understand this sudden excitement to depict Harper's current government as a coalition. It's a pretty childish attack line, if you ask me, and tends to suggest that those who supported even the idea of a coalition government did so without any serious intellectual consistency.

      • John W.

        It's not whether Harper/Layton cooperation is a coalition obviously, but it does make the attack ads on Ignatieff over the coalition a bit more of a stretch even for Harper.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

      Yes we are just beginning to see some of the MSM admit that Iggy has greatly improved his party's positioning going forward. Of course they say it is just dumb luck …. but Andrew Coyne is likely not the only smart guy who figured out that the Bloc & NDP were just as election adverse as were the Liberals. Facing another winter of being flogged by the media simply because they were the "responsible" opposition party, Liberal strategists gambled and won big.
      They have escaped the Harper-fatal-embrace and now they NDP get to be the butt of media scorn.
      As to the irrelevant, momentary polls… Harper always does worse when Parliament is in session. (Hence his Indian-summer election call last year and his shameless manoeuvrings to be defeated this year.)

    • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

      Yes we are just beginning to see some of the MSM admit that Iggy has greatly improved his party's positioning going forward. Of course they say it is just dumb luck …. but Andrew Coyne is likely not the only smart guy who figured out that the Bloc & NDP were just as election adverse as were the Liberals. Facing another winter of being flogged by the media simply because they were the "responsible" opposition party, Liberal strategists gambled and won big.
      They have escaped the Harper-fatal-embrace and now the NDP get to be the butt of media scorn.
      As to the irrelevant, momentary polls… Harper always does worse when Parliament is in session. (Hence his Indian-summer election call last year and his shameless manoeuvrings to be defeated this year.)

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

      [youtube wwDLjXb6FCM&feature=player_embedded#t=18 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwDLjXb6FCM&fe... youtube]

      Do you mean like his Foreign Policy blaming Canada in 2005 or his revised Speech in Toronto 2009 where he praises Chretien,Martin and slags the CPC government?

  • Inkless-Anon-ITQ

    On this EI thing that Jack wants, presumably he would want that bill fast-tracked, would he not? After all, he'd want to help the people quickly, like yesterday, right? Or would he rather chew the cud for the next six months or so till he has enough money?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      That's a really interesting point, Anon: The bill itself is basically just a series of amendments to the existing law, which means that it make it through committee in a matter of days: One technical briefing from the department, one day of witnesses, and back to the House in two weeks, tops. Of course, at that point, the NDP is right back where they started, which means that the Conservatives would have to come forward with another piece of legislation so critical to the wellbeing of Canadians that the NDP would have to grudgingly decline to vote non-confidence in the government at the next opportunity for the greater good.

      • Anon

        Hey, Kady, both Goodale and Paquette/Bloc just proposed almost identical such fast-track motions, but could not get unanimous consent. Wonder who objected :-)

        BTW, sorry about that handle. I was goofing around with some options to try and distinguish myself from that other Anon.

  • Calgary Junkie

    Iggy's problem in a nutshell:

    He offers no specific alternatives, yet keeps saying: "we can do better"

    Voters interpet this as: "we can nitpick better"

    Conclusion: Iggy would make a great Liberal blogger.

    • an online reader

      Scrap the PMO as a start .

      PMO paid $22,000 for a news p.r. contractor for 1 day West Indies conference . flairity tightens the screws the on spending PCO spending up from $ 150 to $ 170 million this year , largest Cabinet , all M.P.s including harper have an office expense accounts , can't trace 10 % ers as M.P. exempt from Freedom of Info ………. etc .

      If harper or any party in power wants employment for their political hacks let them be paid out of 75% taxpayer refunded party coffers ?

      • an online reader

        harper quit buying toys like bunker buster bombs and 8 gallon to the mile flying elephants , cancel $ 4 billion Ottawa advanced fighter search team and invest in Obama's new missle defense plan ?

      • an online reader

        The Liberals really have to nit pick to find wasted spending in Ottawa .

        • Calgary Junkie

          OK, maybe I'm being too hard on Iggy. But Paul Wells' fourth rule of politics seems to apply:

          “The guy who auditions for the role of opposition leader will get the job.”

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

      No one knows Ignatieff and he's done a poor job raising his profile to this point. In terms of offering specific alternatives, that's not the job of the Opposition leader while the House is in session (although one could argue it's a strategy worth investigating). No leader of the Opposition has lost because they'd didn't propose enough ideas of their own in a a pre-election period.

  • wilson

    ' down in Saskitoba for some reason. (Any idea, prairie-dwellers?)'

    Harvest time Kady. Farmers (both men and women) putting in 20 hour days to get the crops in.

    • Derek

      I doubt if that has much to do with it. Actual farmers (contrary to popular belief) are actually a very tiny proportion of the population in Saskitoba.. This region has the smallest sample size so its probably just statistical noise – and even though these numbers show a drop for the Tories and an upswing for the NDP – that is only compared to the poll of last week – if we compare it to the popular vote in the last election it suggests very little change – except the Liberals having a bt of a dead cat bounce after the Dion fiasco and the Tories losing some of those soft Liberals votes they gained last year.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

    insert wounded grumbling from already tender NDP supporters here

    Recognition at last!

    I wonder if any liberals out there would care to comment on how the rise in support for the NDP conflicts with their prophecies that the NDP will be DOOMED! if they prop up the Harper Conservatives.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      To be fair, any such doomedness would show up in next week's numbers, since this poll only covered the period from September 9th to the 15th.

    • wilson

      Canadians do seem to respond positively when the NDP detaches from the Liberals, particularly in the West.

      • Derek

        Keep in mind that about 99% of Canadians live outside the "bubble" that consists of parliament hill, the media and those of us who post on sites like this. To them a week goes by where the NDP is "making news" compared to last week where only Ignatieff and Harper were "making news" and BOOM, suddenly people are reminded that the NDP exists and then they think "oh yeah, they saved us from having yet another election and they want everyone to work together – sounds good to me" – so NDP support goes up a tad. If you look at the Ekos polls all summer, they had the NDP as low as 13.5% in July when there was no political news. Then after the NDP convention – despite all the yammering about it being a Seinfeld convention and how the name change didn't even get voted on – the next Ekos poll had the NDP at 17.4% – it was just a function of being in the news and getting some name recognition.

  • KeenObserver

    Liberals tank 6.3% in BC? All to the NDP's benefit…

    What explains that?

    Could it be Iggy's musings to McGuinty that he'll greenlight the loathed HST that only a few weeks ago he was deried as Harper's Sales Tax to crowds in Vancouver?

    Or is it the fact the NDP support for the Tories actually delivered something ($1 billion and 20 extra weeks) for unemployed Canadians–something that eluded Iggy and his spineless caucus on 79 different confidence motions.

    At this rate, Iggy is not only going to be blamed for an unnecessary election. He's going to be punished.

    MPs like Ujjal "20 votes" Dosanjh must be crapping themselves.

    • Bonnie N

      Keen
      I might have another suggestion for BC. Unfortunately it could be branding confusion. The BC Liberal Party is really the BC Social Credit Party but voters are just so uninformed.

      Otherwise I agree; if Ignatieff wants seats in BC HST is the key.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

    Is there any evidence that the NDP had any input into the legislation that the government proposed? Or did the NDP make a specific proposal to extend benefits in a similar fashion in the past?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

      But, as KeenObserver says, the key thing was that Layton needed to appear to have been bought off; therefore the price didn't really matter, and NDP input didn't matter at all. Good old Jack could have been bought off with $50 million for three-legged bus drivers and it would still be cited as proof of hard-nosed quid pro quo. His cynicism and his virtue are now one and the same.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

      This latest EI "enhancement" looks a lot like Harper's tax policy:
      Aim it at a narrow group so that it will cost little, mean nothing in the big picture but appear to be doing enough of something to buy-off a temporarily needed voter or opponent.

  • Dakota

    So, do the Lib-Lefty posters still believe all these polls showing the Conservatives pulling ahead of the Liberals are outliers? Is there any polling firm that shows it being close anymore?

    I guess all the polling firms are just Conservative run propaganda organizations.

    Or maybe Canadians are finally getting to know Ignatieff and not liking what they see.

    Don’t fret too much Liberals, you’ll probably hold onto most of your Toronto seats.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      With respect, Dakota, a five point spread *is* close. And I have to say that I'm growing weary of your penchant for picking fights with these imaginary posters who vociferously dismiss every poll that shows the Conservatives ahead as an outlier. Nobody on this thread — or, indeed, on any of the other polling threads, seems to be doing so with regard to any firm other than Ipsos. When that argument is raised, you have ITQ's blessing to leap into the maw and defend the integrity of whichever pollster is under attack, but at the moment, you're just ranting somewhat belligerently over comments that don't seem to exist outside your head.

      • Dakota

        Seeing as how the Ipsos poll had a 9 point spread;

        http://www.globalnational.com/Latest+poll+gives+T…

        and the EKOS having a 5.2 point spread, isn’t the difference between these two less then what you call the “close” numbers between the Liberals and Conservatives? (Not to mention the 7 point lead the Conservatives have in the Harris-Decima poll http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/695974…

        Doesn’t that basically prove that the Ipsos poll isn’t an outlier as it was decried by several posters? (And will probably be again once the next Ipsos poll is released.)

        But maybe the Lib-Lefties are past the denial stage and are now into the angry stage.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

          We dont really know. Both use different methodologies….Bricker used to show up every once in a while….maybe he will again….or maybe Kady chair a roundtable interview Bricker, nanos and others and let them try to reconcile each others numbers.

          ipsos was called an outlier because it was the first to show a statistically significant Con lead AND the lead it showed was quite large. My point was it might be a harbinger….maybe it overestimates, maybe they have it dead on but they definitely highlighted the con lead before the others.

          That the polls are now within errors of each other is a different discussion…and a pointless one in my opinion. When Ipsos first came out it was outside the boundry of the combined errors itself and other polls….that has now changed.

          The parties each have their ow internal polls, larger sample sizes, greater frequency etc….so watching their behaviour is more of a indicator of which poll is more accurate.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

        Thanks Kady, this little bot is just wasting ink on your valuable blog. Dakota has yet to make a contribution to this or any other topic.

        • Dakota

          Yes, I guess I just don't fit in with all the Lib-Lefties that post on the Macleans boards.

        • William

          NPV—-wrong again—–I enjoy Dakota/s contribution.

      • scf

        I agree, to some extent, with Dakota, I find it a little strange that you want to toss Ipsos out the window, for the sole reason that Ipsos has the highest Conservative numbers. This could easily be explained by the types of respondents (likely voters, registered voters, other) or the poll methodoloy (phone, internet).

        Regardless, you'd rather just toss that firm and use the others, because the Conservative tally is too high.

  • Andrew

    If Radio Rahim's marching power revelations (after demonizing pot people — karma works!) slow down the immoral pandering on drugs — and that includes removing pot from C-15 entirely (senators, are you listening?) I could live with Harper until next spring.

    Sort of puts a while new light on the Dana Larsen situation too. Guess he's the most honest candidate out there right now.

  • an online reader

    Change freedom of info laws to apply also to our M.P.s . would love to know Government advertising spending , PMO budgets , or how much & who spent on junk mail 10%ers .

  • Mulletaur

    " … and she’s starting to suspect that, when posed that particular question by pollsters, your short, sharp “no” in response may be at least a little bit Pavlovian."

    Yeah.

  • MJH

    The Liberal Party remains the Liberal Party of Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

      Hey don't forget us hopelessly deranged folks in Vancouver too! (And most urban settings outside Alberta).

      If we actually had one-person-one-vote in this country, the over-represented rural voters would have a much harder time annoying the majority.
      And instant run-off elections (where you get to pick your second choice on the ballot) would see Canada instantly rejoin the ranks of progressive democracies.

      • Dakota

        And if pigs could fly everyone would carry umbrellas.

      • scf

        I think you mean regressive. And I also think you're wrong, lots of studies have shown the Conservatives are the second choice of lots of NDP voters, lots of Green voters, lots of Lib voters, and lots of Bloq voters.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

    I don't get it, why do the BQ have the same numbers nationally as regionally? Or is the "national" number always just taken from the regional one since they don't run outside Quebec?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

      Oh, that's just how I post the results — since the Bloc doesn't run outside Quebec, I just give their regional number as the main result, mostly because it drives me crazy to see the Bloc number given as a national, since it's always between 9 and 10, and is completely meaningless. I'm hoping it catches on amongst the major polling firms.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

        Always the trendsetter.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Wascally_Wabbit Wascally_Wabbit

    Interesting – reading under the numbers…

    Undecided – 13% – if those folks a) decide and b) get out and vote – they have the numbers to swing this election either way.

    The small-L liberals – like me – who are STILL waiting for Michael Ignatieff and his advisers to stop playing peekaboo and roll out those policies – which I THINK may be happening starting this week – unknown number – could be indicating to the pollsters either "undecided" or actuallt leaning to one of the other parties depending on whether they are in Quebec or ROC…
    I am waiting for the Iggy Reveal – and the numbers that follow…

  • http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Wascally_Wabbit Wascally_Wabbit

    Interesting – reading under the numbers…

    Undecided – 13% – if those folks a) decide and b) get out and vote – they have the numbers to swing this election either way.

    The small-L liberals – like me – who are STILL waiting for Michael Ignatieff and his advisers to stop playing peekaboo and roll out those policies – which I THINK may be happening starting this week – unknown number – could be indicating to the pollsters either "undecided" or actually leaning to one of the other parties depending on whether they are in Quebec or ROC…
    I am waiting for the Iggy Reveal – and the numbers that follow…

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

      Eric over at ThreeHundredEight highlights that in the poll being discussed almost 36% of NDP voters would prefer a Liberal government. Now I have no idea if this figure is higher or lower than usual but it at least suggests that there might be a large contigent of soft NDP support that could (and in my opinion, probably will) shift over to the Liberals in the next election.

      Time will tell I suppose :)

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

        What I found most interesting in the party breakdown was how very, very little support the Conservatives have for either a majority or a minority amongst those leaning towards other parties. I suppose it's not really surprising, but it does make you wonder how much potential for growth there is beyond the 37 percent high mark from the last election.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

          I do too. I think that in a very real sense Harper's path to majority will rely heavily on voter apathy – perhaps by constantly hammering the whole "Canadians don't want an election" thing he'll be able to convince enough people to stay away from the polls (excepting of course Conservative voters with their superior GOTV mechanism)

          I don't know how realistic that is though…I mean take Ontario for example, in the last election the Conservatives gained 11 seats over 2006, but they actually flatlined in terms of votes – they benefitted tremendously from about 500,000 Liberal votes that just stayed home (the NDP also remained relatively flat in terms of votes). I think that a repeat performance of Dion is unlikely.

          Which is probably why Harper would like to hold off any election talk until after the Olympics :)

        • Smith

          Very good point. But the real implication is not that there is little upside, but that by changing the splits between the Libs & NDP – say for example in a number of BC ridings — could swing seats to create a Con majority. Yes, it will be challenging but thats where the election will play out.

    • E.B.

      It seems to me that more often than not, polls reflect the core support for each party. I suspect most people who admit to being decided are never going to change their mind no matter what.

      The polling companies should leave a call back number with the undecideds and ask them to call in when they do decide. They are the ones who are going to pick the winner, after all.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

    The word "Pavlovian" should be used more often to describe how Canadians respond to various survey questions.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

    That's an intriguing comment by Frank Graves, about EKOS polling method superiority versus 'Contrary reports'. The really fascinating aspect to it, is why does this suddenly make a difference with this poll? Has EKOS recently changed its methodology? If so, do we get any details on that? Looking back at their June poll, they have the same land line/cell phone methodology disclaimer. The whole line of reasoning seems very suspect.

    A second very intriguing EKOS comment claims that polarization will lead to more minority governments. Did they really think that one through? The comments coming from them are not exactly confidence-inspiring.

  • scf

    Good for the Liberals with a strong 0.2% gain in Alberta.

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