Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

UPDATED: EKOS Weekly (with bonus Nanos): WATCH OUT! It's a runaway train!

by kadyomalley on Thursday, September 24, 2009 9:24am - 92 Comments

Seven point lead! Seven point lead! Seven point one lead, even, if you want to get all decimal about it! Watch out, semi-mythical majority, the vote-seeking missile that is the Big Blue Machine is locked, loaded and ready to — inch ahead from last week by less than a full percentage point.

Not that they shouldn’t feel good about it, mind you — as any number of commenters will soon be along to point out, it’s the trend that counts, not the actual numbers, and that trend shows slow but steady growth by the Conservatives, while the Liberals remain frozen in amber. (Seriously, you guys, are you playing dead to lull the Tories into a false sense of security? Because at the moment, it’s just a little bit too convincing. Maybe twitch a finger or something, just so the audience knows there’s still a twist in the plot to come.)

And then there’s the NDP. Oh, NDP. After the last few polls showed no post-post-convention plunge despite your leader’s dithering, it was like a mantra: “Look! We’re not slumping! You all predicted slumpage, but hah! No slumpers we! Take that, corporate media! Today, Nova Scotia, tomorrow, the world!” And then your party lost nine points in a week in Atlantic Canada. The End. On the plus side, look at where all that extra media fussin’ got Elizabeth May and the Greens in British Columbia — into the high teens, that’s where! Start packing up that ministerial office, Gary Lunn!

Numbers first, followed by more caffeine and toasted pita-powered armchair analysis from ITQ — not to mention that extra dose of substance-fortified Nanos goodness teasered in the headline:

National voter intention (MoE 2.1)
Conservatives: 37 (+0.9)
Liberals: 29.9 (-)
NDP: 13.8 (-2.7)
Green: 10.2 (+1.2)
Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 36.4 (-2.5)
Undecided: 15.6 (+2.3)

… and the regional breakdowns:

British Columbia (MoE 5.9)
Conservatives: 34.2 (-1.8)
Liberals: 24.1 (-0.9)
NDP: 24.1 (-2.6)
Green: 17.6 (+5.3)

Alberta (MoE 6.8)
Conservatives: 62.6 (+2.5)
Liberals: 19.1 (+0.5)
NDP: 8.4 (-3.0)
Green: 9.9 (-)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 8.1)
Conservatives: 47.1 (+3.2)
Liberals: 20.7 (-5.1)
NDP: 23.8 (+3.7)
Green: 8.4 (-1.0)

Ontario (MoE 3.2)
Conservatives: 41.8 (+1.7)
Liberals: 35.1 (-0.4)
NDP: 11.9 (-3.5)
Green: 11.2 (+2.2)

Quebec (MoE 4.2)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.4 (-2.5)
Liberals: 28.6 (+1.5)
Conservatives: 19.4 (+3.4)
NDP: 9.3 (-1.2)
Green: 6.2 (-1.4)

Atlantic Canada (MoE 8.3)
Liberals: 41.1 (+3.6)
Conservatives: 31.7 (+3.0)
NDP: 19.2 (-9.0)
Green: 7.9 (+2.4)

UPDATE: Scroll down for metropolitan breakdown.

So — yeah, on the regional front, we see some fascinating shifts, although as usual, in most of the country, the margin of error is sufficiently daunting to make sweeping conclusions unwise, not that it’s ever stopped ITQ before, of course.

As noted above, it took a bit longer to show up in the EKOS numbers, but the Orange Dream appears to be over out East, at least for the moment: Nine points may be just outside the margin of error, and who knows what will happen when Premier Dex Dexter unveils his economic plan, but that’s an awfully big one-week drop. (Don’t y’all wish that they’d break down the Atlantic provinces? It seems so silly to treat it as a monolith, since it strikes ITQ that the regional differences between, say, New Brunswick and Newfoundland are far greater than those between Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Oh, now she’s going to hear from angry prairie residents, isn’t she?)

Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Conservatives have been bouncing around that 16-19 percent point for a few weeks now, so it’s hard to know whether that represents a creeping resurgence, or just a statistical blip; Ontario continues to be a fairly close race, although the Tories appear to be settling into a five point lead provincially. It would be interesting to know just where the NDP is losing support, though. Has the labour backlash over the EI package started to show up in the polls?

Moving west, the Liberals continue to go down, down, down in Saskitoba — again, it would be far more informative if we at least knew in which province that slide was taking place. Wherever it’s happening, the spoils seem to have been split between the Tories and the Dips.

Alberta, as usual, is boring, so let’s just skip it and move onto British Columbia, where the Greens have rocketed up to nearly 18 percent — seriously, is that all the May effect, or is this anti-HST movement driving people towards the one party that has never been in power, provincially or federally? Populists tend to appreciate that.

Finally, those Nanos numbers, which are probably being viewed with even more horror within the confines of the OLO boardroom than the EKOS results: Despite the best efforts of the Liberals to publicly, and at every opportunity, express grave doubt over the prime minister’s commitment to ~~Sparkle Motion~~ provide sound management and competent government, he’s still the leader most trusted on pretty much every issue that counts, from the economy to national unity to the environment. Yes, even the environment, although it’s possible that might change after this week’s performance — or non-performance — at the United Nations. Not that it matters, since as far as ITQ knows, the country is still officially in not-caring-about-the-environment mode, which is too bad for Jack Layton, since even he outranks Ignatieff on the enviro-trustability scale.

In fact, the only area in which Michael Ignatieff even comes close to the prime minister is national unity, which ITQ attributes almost entirely to his speechwriter. Also, you have to wonder whether this whole ‘play to the centre’ strategy is working, since it appears to have resulted in general eye-narrowing scepticism from both the left and the right.

Alright, commenters. Over to you!

UPDATE: Since some of y’all — hello Jarrid! — seem especially chuffed by the burst of Harpermania that is apparently sweeping downtown Toronto, here are the full results for what EKOS describes as “Metropolitan Canada”, although it’s not clear whether that may, in some cases, include suburban ridings — with difference from last week and margins of error:

Vancouver (MoE 9.9)
Conservatives: 34.3 (-3.5)
Liberals: 25.2 (-3.4)
NDP: 24.2 (+1.8)
Green: 16.2 (+4.0)

Calgary (MoE 12.3)
Conservatives: 57.7 (-2.2)
Liberals: 31.4 (+8.1)
NDP: 3.2 (-5.5)
Green: 7.7 (+0.6)

Toronto (MoE 6.2)
Conservatives: 41.9 (+5.2)
Liberals: 37.2 (-2.5)
NDP: 11.4 (-2.2)
Green: 9.5 (-0.5)

Ottawa (MoE 8.2)
Conservatives: 55.0 (+12.1)
Liberals: 28.3 (-14.6)
NDP: 9.8 (-0.7)
Green: 6.8 (+3.1)

Montreal (MoE 6.4)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.5 (-1.6)
Liberals: 29.5 (-1.5)
Conservatives: 16.3 (+2.8)
NDP: 9.5 (+1.0)
Green: 8.2 (-0.3)

Tags: ekos weekly, more data tables please, now with 100% more nanos

More by kadyomalley

herringchoker

I think that would be a "genuine" semnse of security Kady.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Rule #2 when pointing out other people's typos: Don't make one yourself.

herringchoker

Oh fuddle-duddle.
Riley Hennessey

I agree. It's time for pollsters to show Atlantic Canada some love and bring down that marin of error for the region.

http://intensedebate.com/people/charlesh Charles H.

While I'd love to see poll numbers that have a MoE more in line with the other regions, that seems to require a number of respondents that the pollsters just aren't willing to dedicate time to finding. (On the other hand, they seem to be willing to dedicate time to usually find about twice as many respondents for Alberta, which has fewer ridings than the combined Atlantic provinces and, let's face it, really isn't a region where anybody really wonders what the results will be.)

Which is, of course, also why we won't be seeing a provincial breakdown anytime soon either; assuming they were distributed evenly, the EKOS numbers would result in a bit over 30 respondents per province.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/charlesh Charles H.

While I'd love to see poll numbers that have a MoE more in line with the other regions, that seems to require a number of respondents that the pollsters just aren't willing to dedicate time to finding. (On the other hand, they seem to be willing to dedicate the time to usually find about twice as many respondents for Alberta, which has fewer ridings than the combined Atlantic provinces and, let's face it, really isn't a region where anybody really wonders what the results will be.)

Which is, of course, also why we won't be seeing a provincial breakdown anytime soon either; assuming they were distributed evenly, the EKOS numbers would result in a bit over 30 respondents per province.

an online reader

Iggy : Your M.P. to appoint ? Does not bode well for P.M.O. haters ?

"Our Democracy is Broken: How do we fix it?"

CPAC’s Peter Van Dusen moderates a head-to-head debate between Maclean’s Andrew Coyne and Paul Wells on the state of Canada’s democracy. Guest panelists will also join in the discussion, including former NDP leader Ed Broadbent, former prime minister's chief of staff Eddie Goldenberg, author John Ralston Saul and conservative commentator Rick Anderson. Representing the people’s perspective will be trusted pollster Nik Nanos who will weigh in with new numbers showing where Canadians stand on the issue.

an online reader

Sorry minus people . You are so right . I have the right to vote how I like . Why should it matter to me who you put in front of me or who they report to ?
an online reader

From beginning of Sept. on Con / lib popularity polls graphs intersect than cons rise libs fall .
Publié le 24 septembre 2009 à 10h59 | We deserve better Jonathan Pedneault and John Lennard
Since a new lieutenant was appointed to Quebec by you, we never stopped to let us do understand the importance of his role. So also with all the respect that we grow with you, we ask that you or the lieutenant in question, leading the party in Quebec . We will deliver not question the quality of your leadership within the party, but we can only worry about seeing some act as if they alone were in control.

After we have announced with great fanfare in spring 2009, all districts of Quebec, including those held by Liberal MPs, could be subject to a nomination contest to determine the party candidate, some began to playing petty politics to ensure their future and their grandiloquent ambitions.

Somewhat sneaky, they began to impose candidates in several constituencies, thereby exceeding the sacred right that should be members of this party, we want Liberal to choose one who will carry the red their constituency.

Riley Hennessey

How weird is it that from March til September, it looked like the Libs were either neck and neck or overtaking the tories, but as soon as they start beating the election drum and people start paying attention, the CPC heads toward the high 30's and the LPC heads toward the high 20's…..

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"How weird is it that from March til September …."

It is not 'weird', it is rational.

Gawd

yeah the silent majority snapped out of it when they heard the ridiculous news.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Savant Savant

It's not weird at all. What some people (and perhaps the Liberals) have confused is support in principle over support in practice. In short, it's what I calling 'vote parking'.

When we are between elections, the polling of the public will reflect the public's "default" political position. So if they tend to vote in a certain way, they will offer that up to a pollster. However, that doesn't mean they will ACTUALLY vote that way in a real election. The Liberals polled higher when Dion said he would resign, when the party had no real leader. (continued…)

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

All summer, Libs were saying polling numbers didn't mean anything because no one was paying attention. I often heard that it would all change after Labour Day when people returned to normal life. I wonder when the numbers start to count or do Libs now argue the numbers don't reflect reality, wait until after Thanksgiving.

I am surprised by this weeks numbers. I thought NDP might do a bit better than previously because there would be some good will from Canadians who were thankful dippers saved us from an election less than a year after the last one.

anonymoose

i think folks would rather have an election than listen to Jack anymore. I have a sense that the NDP will be losing some seats.

http://intensedebate.com/people/HarveyMushman HarveyMushman

So does Jack…hence no election.

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

I think they managed to portray themselves as sheerly tactical and self-interested, with barely a shred of core values or vision to underpin it. Which we're used to from the other guys, but gets more problematic for the party of "conscience".

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

I was going to say that whatever the Liberals are selling, people aren't buying. But as I think about it, it's not awfully clear what they're selling.

Quick question: who on earth thought it was a good idea to launch an ad campaign with Iggy in front of a Green backdrop? Never mind that there's nothing more ambitious in those ads than being in favour of sunshine and cookies, one wonders why they would want to associate themselves with anything remotely close that colour.

http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

Or is it that what they are trying to sell isn't clear?

Until they resolve their internecine war, it will be impossible for any Liberal leader to stand for anything.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

As much as some complained about Chretien's iron fisted party discipline, the wisdom of that approach is more apparent in its absence.

Smith

This is what you get when you crown yourself a leader.

Bob Rae would have been 10 times better – even with his ontario baggage.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Honest questions: How would the party look different right now, if Rae were leader? Would he have used the coalition? Would he be more effective at unifying the ranks, at minimizing the circus inclinations of the Quebec wing? Would he be a lesser victim to Con attack themes? Etc….

For the record, I'm a huge fan of Rae. Always have been. But as JulesAime points out, there are problems in the Liberal party that no platform on earth can overcome, so long as they can't dance to the same tune.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Honest questions: How would the party look different right now, if Rae were leader? Would he have used the coalition? Would he be more effective at unifying the ranks, at minimizing the circus inclinations of the Quebec wing? Would he be a lesser victim to Con attack themes? Etc….

For the record, I'm a huge fan of Rae. Always have been. But as JulesAime points out, there are problems in the Liberal party that no platform or charismatic leader can overcome, so long as they can't dance to the same tune.

Smith

Great comments. Personally, I think the Libs would be in a minority government position right now. He would have used the coalition more effectively and probably defeated the government on the budget. Thats when Harper was the weakest. He really is the most experienced leader in Ottawa when it comes to recessions and also dealing with coalitions/accords.

Rae has political street smarts. The Libs don't need 'big thinkers' or PET returns, they need someone who gets politics.

http://intensedebate.com/people/HarveyMushman HarveyMushman

You think Liberal numbers are dropping on Ontario now? You ain't seen nothing yet if Rae was leader.

ctm

If Rae were leader!!! A disaster, and the Libs, history!!! They need to reinvent themselves and Iggy was not and still is not the answer I think that's why this Quebec guy is coming out of retirement to try for leadership!!

http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

While it may be true, Kady, that Ignatieff's speech writer has helped him on the unity file, I frankly think Mr Ignatieff would be better advised to fire his speech writer for producing the platitude-ridden pablum in his recent "major" policy speeches.

His foreign policy speech was a particular disappointment given his vaunted foreign policy expertise and long experience abroad. Instead of outlining a vibrant, coherent new approach to Canada's role in the world, Ignatieff let his speech writer crib from old Paul Martin and Pierre Trudeau speeches. Dragging out stale ideas such as a G-20 secretariat and "new, improved" Team Canada missions has left Canadians wondering where the real Michael Ignatieff is hiding. Surely this is not all there is.

Gawd

his speech writer is only working with what iggy gives him which obviously ain't much.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Your assuming he doesnt write his own…..I would assume he has lots of input to them….apparently he was scripting his own commercials, if the gossip is to be believed.

Livebloggin Junkie

I have been watching Newsworld for 2 hours now and have yet to see them report the EKOS poll. Odd, since every single week this summer the CBC was quick to report their latest EKOS poll findings showing the CPC and LPC in a statistical tie. Now with Tories taking Toronto the CBC Newsworld has forgotten to report it.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Actually, I've seen it on Newsworld this morning, but as someone who has spent the last four months setting her alarm ahead by a half hour on Thursdays just so she can grab the data tables from cbc.ca, I can tell you that from what I can see, the coverage of the latest EKOS results appears to depend entirely on how much other news there is to cover — I really doubt the breakdown by cities has anything to do with it at all. Especially since we're talking about a 6.2 MoE.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Tridus Tridus

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/23/ekos-po…

It managed to make the front page on CBC News, so they're clearly burying it. :P

Maybe there has just been some actual news of consequence to report this morning on Newsworld over the weekly poll that nobody outside of poltics cares about?

Guest

Should the Conservative numbers continue to climb and should they reach 40% this Fall, Harper will be in a bit of a PR pickle. He'll want to engineer his own defeat despite his party line that an economic recovery is "no time for an election." I don't see that stopping him from doing it, of course, and he'd blame the defeat on the opposition, but it could be seen as a Layton-esque reversal. I just wonder what the poison pill would be.

Gawd

any poison pill will do. but really this is going to be a parliament that ends on a fixed date so go ahead and mark it on your calendar
wilson

I disagree. PMSH wants to hold office, IMO, until the Senate is reformed (Cons have w majority in Jan 2010),
officiate over bringing our brave troops home in 2011, and bring Canadians back to center right.
Not engineering an election when the polls have him at majority support, puts PMSH above all the game playing that Canadians are sick of.
Also (Coyne is right, no election until 2012) it will take Quebecers awhile to digest that a majority is attainable, without Quebec.
And that is the best approach to winning Quebec.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

You mind if I bring this post up repeatedly and mercilessly if he poison pills this parliament before 2010?

http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

Any prediction before someone states these Polls are "outliers" and the CPC have bought off the pundits, pollsters and media?

I really enjoyed the "faux outrage" watching Liberal MP's attack the Timbit Hero for abandoning the substantial climate change discussions at the UN.

Besides the regular "call to action" speeches, anything substantive happen?

Iggy was really upset that the PM was not in personal attendance to walk out on the Iranian speech or was he acting again?

anonymoose

I mentioned this yesterday, but if Michael Ignatieff had his way, this week we would be in the middle of an election. So much for his concern about attendance at the U.N.
wilson

Obama wasn't in the walk out either, if sources are correct.

ctm

No Obama wasn't, they sent lower diplomats, and they did ended walking away too….I was so proud at the PM for doing this, the same way I was proud of Chretien when he didn't join the war, our country took a stand for something really good and yes, Iggy was out of line but it keeps with his character, not surprise there!!!

http://www.TennisVagabond.com Big Dave S

The worrying thing for Ignatieff was that they kept claiming to be keeping their powder dry for an election, THAT was when they would fill in the blanks on who he is and what he believes. But this last week they finally gave their campaign speeches on economy and word affairs (pre-scheduled, but now unexpectedly NOT during a campaign context) and they were just total pablum. Is this really the deep thinking stuff they've been holding off? Wow.
I shouldn't have said "the worrying thing". ONE of the worrying things. Directly crossing Chretien on Cauchon, and being publicly called out by Rae CAN'T be good news. The rapprochement between Charest and Harper isn't good either, or the clearly weak relationship between McGuinty and Ignatieff.
None of it matters much till a campaign is called- people are just sick of the bickering and won't pay attention till they have to, but if this last week was an indication of Ignatieff's campaign in action, he's in deep trouble.
http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Update: I've added the metropolitan breakdowns, complete with differences from last week. Enjoy!

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Liberal surge in Calgary!

anonymoose

ottawa is surprising

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

As I mentioned downthread, given the absolutely staggering shift in those numbers with no obvious cause, I'm thinking that result *may* be an outlier, particularly if you compare it to previous weeks. It will be interesting to see whether it shifts back to the 4-5 point difference that we've seen up until now.

wilson

This is the 3rd poll showing Liberals at 29%,
obviously there is a cause, and perhaps it is found in the cities.
http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Oh, that's very possible, and the other metro numbers seem to indicate that it may be the case. It's just in Ottawa, where they went from a perfect tie to a twenty point split overnight is an eyebrow-raiser. berried, bien sur.
From: IntenseDebate Notifications

herringchoker

Wow, the margin of error for Toronto, Montreal & Ottawa (Ottawa?) is lower than the MOE for all of Atlantic Canada, all 2.3 million of us. That says a fair bit about how EKOS samples.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

I really think y’all should petition the major polling firms for separate breakout rights. Surely this is some sort of violation of the constitution.

VinceClortho

Trends are interesting, (insert obligatory mention of snapshots etc) but the EKOS Liberal numbers have been stuck around 30 for 2 months. and even at their best they were about 35 in early June.

I agree, the Nanos numbers will cause headaches in the OLO. I think that explains some of their public moves and pronouncements.

The two poll in a row sub 30 number is going to cause problems. If the the CBC poll is accurate and the red redoubt in 416 is under seige….well more Cherry Beach ads may not be in order.

Can you increase your positives till you drive the other guys positives down to force a re-evaluation in the voters mind? I think this means a Liberal neg campaign is on the way…..unless the OLO gets cleaned out, it always starts with the advisors.
http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

Look to the future polls coming out showing more and more decline for the LPC .. The moment Iggy stood up in Sudbury and declared for one and all ' Harper Your Time Is Up! ' he made the third biggest political mistake he has ever made. Not only is he now on record to be blamed for an election, no matter how it comes about but he threw his cards on the table and walked away from the game by not being willing to even read any proposed legislation beofre voting NO something that previously was helping keep Layton's numbers down. Canadians want their parliamentarians to get down to work and don't yank us into election less than a year since the previous one. The interesting thing is that I doubt Harper cares either way after all he is the PM and right now Iggy – you are the weakest link – I can see jack and Gilles dipping their timbits in the coffee as I type this and thinking hmmm.

anonymoose

I think that people are seeing through Jack though. Canadians are a pretty smart group. they know Jack is worried about getting destroyed, so now he is playing "nice". If Iggy did one thing, it was to call out Jack. now we see the veracity of his intestinal fortitude.

wilson

Looked to me like MI wouldn't 'play nice' with other parties.
So given the choice from the 2 who do not play well with others,
Canadians picked Harper.

We all watched MI toss Dion under the bus, manipulate a non-election as Lib leader, throw the coalition and probation in Harper's face every chance he got.
No ads from the Enchanted Forest will erase the sheer ruthlessness MI has shown.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Kady,

I have the same question regarding the definition of "toronto", or any other Metro area for that matter. How much, if any, of 905, does the Ekos poll include.

Sadly, you dont get those really fine grain polls that break out by relevant region till an election, or work for a party. I would lover to see 905, 519 brakdowns. The ottawa one looks brutal for the Red Team. I also would like to see the traditional Quebec breakout, the Quebec City ridings, the Beauce ridings, the Montreal ridings.

The break out around Vancouver also tells an interesting story. Oh well, maybe some of your low friends in high places at the parties can give you some anonymous insight……

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Well, I've dropped EKOS a line begging for a little more info on the areas covered in the metropolitan breakdown, so we'll see what they're willing to provide. The Ottawa numbers are actually sufficiently out of line with every previous EKOS poll in the area that I'm thinking that one may actually be an outlier. The Tories and the Liberals have been pretty well tied in this area, with the parties trading a lead of no more than four or five points back and forth for months. That kind of change with no obvious cause is pretty hard to fathom, which is why I'll be interested to see next week's numbers.

wilson

I remember a poll earlier this year that had Cons well ahead in Ottawa, maybe not an EKOS poll tho.
http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Thanks Kady….I am sure if they can they will.

Re the Ottawa numbers….fair question, but you are faced with two possibilities when you get a statistically significant move. Its real or its an outlier, of course it cause you to think about the last poll as well. That there is no readily apparent reason would lead one to believe it is an outlier, (the 19 out of 20 thing). However, they note Ottawa has highly committed voters, the atmosphere in and around Ottaw is more attuned to the election talk, and it may even be more sensitive to the idea that either one isnt required or if one were held that a majority is required….all hypotheses that are worth thinking about and testing.
.
http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

The Ottawa numbers are not that surprising if it is referring to the 613 area as a whole since the Tories are very strong in many of the rural/suburban ridings outside of the downtown. What would be surprising is if these numbers reflected movement in the core ridings.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

The Ottawa numbers are not that surprising if it is referring to the 613 area as a whole since the Tories are very strong in many of the rural/suburban ridings outside of the downtown. What would be surprising is if these numbers reflected movement in the core urban ridings.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

I've added a new post with Frank Graves' explanation of the methodology, and what the metro numbers might indicate. Enjoy!

http://intensedebate.com/people/delano_d delano_d

The ottawa one looks brutal for the Red Team.

It's a shame 613 is so large that we don't get that handy division.

Dakota

It's an outlier! It's an outlier! All pollsters are neo-con hacks!

Where are all the usual lib-lefties that spam these boards?

Looks like that nasty Ipsos had it right, doesn't it?

Ignatieff is tanking just like his pal Dion did last year. I wonder how much longer his decision to table a vote of non-confidence will last?

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Okay, that's it. Dakota, the only person who spams the weekly polling threads is you. Please stop. Discuss the numbers with the other commenters, but stop picking fights with imaginary posters. It contributes absolutely nothing to the discussion, and I'm tired of it.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Okay, that's it. Dakota, the only person who spams the weekly polling threads is you. Please stop. Feel free to chat about the numbers with the other commenters, but stop picking fights with imaginary posters. It contributes absolutely nothing to the discussion, and I'm tired of it.

Dakota

Didn't mean to pick a fight, I will refrain from creating straw men until an actual one appears. I should always wait until after the morning coffee break before posting.

But you have to admit that the Ipsos polls have taken a lot of flack for basically predicting the current trend.

Mulletaur

"Didn't mean to pick a fight, …"

Sure you did. See below.

Mulletaur

"Where are all the usual lib-lefties that spam these boards?"

It's your blog, so it's really none of my business, but I think our dear Dakota has a point, and was being provocative in the hopes of getting a response from the likes of me and others.

Fair enough. It's pretty hard to argue that this poll is an outlier, subject to my blanket reservations on poll methodology, question order and such. There is no hiding it, and no amount of spin will make it go away : the numbers are not going in the right direction for the Liberals. If they want to beat Harper, they have to do better. How, what ? I have no idea. Perhaps a campaign will allow Iggy to turn things around. But those around Iggy had better start thinking seriously and self-critically right now, and not just throw the dice.

I'm wearing my hairshirt, Dakota. Over to you.

Dakota

I think I may be in the bad books for good. Hopefully one of the pollsters show an improvement for the Liberals soon or I'm afraid Kady's mood will get even worse.

But then it will be my turn to gripe about outliers and you can taunt me.

"Now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!"

Mulletaur

My father did not smell of elderberries. Huh.

Blues Clair

Do you have a junk mail folder Macleans?
http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

A little overexuberant….but we did see the tashing of Ipsos in particular…..Ekos seems to be a consensus accepted poll, the frequency is the source of that I suspect.

There was a good Hill Times article where ipsos started to reconcile the differences in a rational way….there were some timing differences in the polls etc. But anyway, things are converging.

I will say, though, you cant really say MI is tanking. Its more that he isnt doing anything in the last few months. The best was a 35 in June, I think and now he is at 29. Given the error bars I think all you can say is that his range has dropped slightly. The cons have a more significant over this time and the NDP has had a noted drop.

This is why the regionals are important. The slight lift in the national numbers can hide some interesting regionals. To some extent increases in Toronto (defined as 416 in my lexicon) wont help the cons unless they are HUGE gains. Same in Montreal. But 3 point gains around vancouver or 905 or in Ottawa are pretty significant, since its close.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

For whatever it's worth, the press conference Iggy's giving right now may change things a bit. It's a fairly powerful charge of pork barrelling with infrastructure funds.

But then, I've long given up trying to guess what Canadians will pay attention to.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Goody! Baird is responding in an hour. Probably chewing glass and ripping phone books in half to prepare…

even flow

The nanos numbers are weird. That 45% of Canadians believe Harper is doing a good job of making parliament work seems counter intuitive.

Oh well, if Canadians truly believe this than they deserve what they get, if that means a Conservative Majority than they will have to live with consequences.

On a side note, i hope that this will put more pressure on Harper to explain his positions and be challenged on them in the public sphere. One of my biggest worries (which has come true) was that the Media would spend more time covering what the Liberals were doing and saying instead of focusing how the Conservatives were governing the country.

Dakota

I would say the pressure to explain positions and be challenged on them is in Ignatieff's hands. Harper has been running things for 4 years now, plenty of time for Canadians to see how he operates.

Despite your superciliousness, Canadians will choose the party they believe represents their beliefs the best, not the one you think they should choose.
http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Outside of partisan world it may not be. I would say that numbers like that might want to make the opposition parties think about how this appears OTQ (outisde the Queensway) and outside their own partisans.

But then again, my working theory right now is that the Liberal strategy is focussed only on Liberals….the risk is that this may not be the base it once was. Many big companies face this problem, overserving a makret. Its one things to reconnect with loyal customers its another to ignore growth (independents and non partisans)….as I said just a working theory.

kcm

It's a good theory. The liberals for whatever reason no longer have the personalities that can command centre stage and attract non libs. It's been going on for a while. In some ways the writing was on the wall when people like Manley walked away. As a liberal it's sad to see a once great party floundering for a reason to be. But that's life and death, i guess. Perhaps the time is coming when the left will have to think of a way of bridging their differences and forming a coherent counterweight to the CPC.

Blues Clair

Interesting to see the Dippers dip.

"Politically, the New Democrats are not getting much traction. It's tough when you have no control of the airwaves. They are still stereotyped by an image tethered to decades past. But they can take comfort in knowing that on many of the vital issues, they've been on the mark. Never mind the political score. On what really matters, vindication has come their way."
- Lawrence Martin

Sung Tsu

Between the modest increase in tory support, the relative stability of liberal support and the decline of NDP fortunes these polls may not be all that bad for the Liberals. Bear in mind that from their point of view these polls represent a substantial improvement over the pre-election polls from last year. Combine that with a vastly increased party membership and improved finances it would help to explain the strategy Ignatieff if following at present. It is also noteworthy that the undecided have increased substantially. That may help to explain why Harper isnt pushing to hard to be defeated.
http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

Nice try, BC. But it's not a polling data point. Therefor irrelevant.

wilson

The Liberals releasing the 'Harper wants a majority tape' did not exactly help them.
But now they know, Canadians are not afraid of a Harper majority, are not rattled by 'special interest groups' and fear women's rights being taken away.

IMO, it is Duceppe that has the most to overcome, should a majority for any party be attainable alongside the BLOC holding 2/3 of the Quebec seats.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Savant Savant

Whether you love or hate the Tories, they have the advantage since their leader and party are proven qualities. When I say proven I don't mean that in a positive or negative way, I just mean that you know where they stand. As such, the Liberals have made a big mistake in trying to attack the Tories instead of building THEMSELVES up. They have a brand new leader and a party coming off the worst defeat in Liberal history, so they need more than vague ramblings and Tory attacks to get support from the public. This is why Tory supporters outnumber the other parties in the “fully committed” voter segment by a margin of more than three to one in the Ekos poll.

You watch… If somehow the parties were to agree to NOT force an election, the numbers would drop right back to where they were before. It happened last June, and it happened last December. When you force talk of an election, people start answering the polls with who they would REALLY vote for.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

So, the way I see it, there are a few active ingredients working on the change in polling numbers.

The Liberals are seeing some reaction to their new ad campaign, that I would break down to two parts – the 'We can do better' message, and "Here's Mike" message. Neither of those messages seem to be working and they should probably pull the ads and preserve the cash for a better message. The Liberals are also seeing some reaction to the call for an election, which is also negative.

What we have not yet seen, but should expect to see, is the benefit to the Liberals for the very necessary strategic step of placing themselves into the role of Opposition. There is very considerable opportunity there for gains, where before they were definitely handicapping themselves as the Conservative's toadies. To realize those gains they will have to come up with opposition messages that resonate, mileage will vary. I think is a strong possibility of Liberal gains, at the expense of the now-embattled NDP in the coming weeks.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

So, the way I see it, there are a few active ingredients working on the change in polling numbers.

The Liberals are seeing some reaction to their new ad campaign, that I would break down to two parts – the 'We can do better' message, and "Here's Mike" message. Neither of those messages seem to be working and they should probably pull the ads and preserve the cash for a better message. The Liberals are also seeing some reaction to the call for an election, which is also negative.

What we have not yet seen, but should expect to see, is the benefit to the Liberals for the very necessary strategic step of placing themselves into the role of Opposition. There is very considerable opportunity there for gains, where before they were definitely handicapping themselves as the Conservative's toadies. To realize those gains they will have to come up with opposition messages that resonate, mileage will vary. I think there is a strong possibility of Liberal gains, at the expense of the now-embattled NDP in the coming weeks.

frobisher grove

That is an excellent point. The strength of being The Opposition is underestimated. Political judo.

http://theplaceofbiff.blogspot.com biff

All polls and all trends are saying the same thing:

the Liberals are out of the "hoping to take power" game, and into the "hoping the conservatives don't get a majority" game.

A game the Liberals surely thought they wouldn't be playing when Iggy swaggered onto the field.