Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

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If Jack Layton were a strategist…

by Paul Wells on Monday, September 28, 2009 4:47pm - 99 Comments

…he’d vote in support of the Liberals’ non-confidence motion this week.

The Liberals are in perfect disarray. Layton will never have a better shot at harvesting a chunk of the Liberal vote.

But of course, he’s not thinking about that stuff, is he? He’s just so worried about the Canadian workers who need their EI.

Tags: Just sayin'

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Wascally Wabbit

Ah but think of the upside Jarrid.
All the Liberals who have been sitting on the sidelines since Martin and Earncliffe took over – are now wondering – maybe this guy has a spine and principles after all – and that would be a good starting point!
You keep on speculating Kady – at leats we can play with Jarrid's simple mind for a few days…

jarrid

WW says "…maybe this guy has a spine…".

I'm not sure Denis Coderre or any objective observer reviewing the events of the last several days would draw that conclusion.

You do have a point that the Libs sitting on the sidelines since the Martin and Co took over may now enter the fray, or more precisely, have entered the fray – hence Spector's advice that Iggy should watch his back

jarrid

WW says "…maybe this guy has a spine…".

I'm not sure Denis Coderre or any objective observer reviewing the events of the last several days would draw that conclusion.

You do have a point that the Libs sitting on the sidelines since the Martin and Co took over may now enter the fray, or more precisely, have entered the fray – hence Spector's advice that Iggy should watch his back. Good advice, that.
http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com bigcitylib

Libs are always in disarray in Que. Still winds up a Tory Minority with a few MPs losing their seat.
Bill D, Cat

Ha !
Irritable Canadian

Actually, this post should say "If Ian Davey were a strategist…"… because if he were, his "leader" wouldn't be languishing 10 points back, his Quebec lieutenant (however dubious Coderre is) wouldn't have resigned and his Parliamentary Caucus wouldn't be listening more to Bob Rae and sniping about having to welcome Kinsella back into the fold and deal with juvenile OLO staffers.

Yep, Ian Davey really is a "rainmaker" — cause there is a whole sh*t storm of problems raining all over Ignatieff.

http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

Perhaps this apple DID fall very far from the tree?

Bill D, Cat

If my Aunt had balls …..

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

she might have learned to play basketball…or baseball, or soccer

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Coyne must have goaded you into betting large on this. :)
Bill D, Cat

Foreign Affairs ?

herringchoker

Defence.

Bill L.

Wells is right on the money on this one. If Layton had the dough, he would be trying to vote twice to bring down the Conservatives. The Libs are in a freefall in the polls, Iggy-mania has not broken out, polling numbers for women (a key to an LPC win) are terrible, and Quebec is about to go south in spectacular fashion. Jack should be champing at the bit to go out there and harvest votes. But he is going to stay seated for the non-confidence motion, Why? Two reasons. As I mentioned, they are broke. But most of all, Jack is the wrong guy to be leading that parade. He quite simply cannot garner the trust of the voters he needs to get. He is the wrong guy at what could have been the right time for the NDP.

http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

Bill when the Liberal are in self-destruct mode (naval gazing, infighting), the BEST tactic is to NOT interrupt it.

Let the MSM feed on the in-fighting for the next few days. The Liberals are trying to defeat the gov't and the optics are the party is again NOT united behind the leader.

Why not led the Polls reflect the expected bump for the NDP and drop for the Libs (my prediction) over the role reversal in the HOC.

Can the Jack Layton NDP's rehabilitate his party's image to a Doer/Dexter fashion in a few months?

Bill L.

"Can the Jack Layton NDP's rehabilitate his party's image to a Doer/Dexter fashion in a few months?"

Um. No. His caucus is at war with itself, they have no new ideas to offer, and Jack is just too slick to gain the trust needed to pull it off.

http://intensedebate.com/people/janfromthebruce janfromthebruce

really, that's just a liberal lie – one where libs think repeating it often enough it may come true – LOL – libs try projection as the good ship Iggy poop cracks up.

http://intensedebate.com/people/janfromthebruce janfromthebruce

"Jack is the wrong guy to be leading that parade. He quite simply cannot garner the trust of the voters he needs to get. He is the wrong guy at what could have been the right time for the NDP."

Public opinion polling would suggest that you have that wrong Bill – on trust Layton outshines both the libs and cons. And according to the recent Leger poll, Quebecers rated Layton as the best leader.

Maggie's Farmboy

It's quite possible, even in Canada, for both left of centre parties to fare badly in an election.

Scott M.

"both left of centre parties"… NDP and the Bloc?

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Spector finds the next move

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-visi…

"Martin Cauchon will not get pass in his bid to run for the Liberals in Outremont. Not only will there be a nomination meeting, but you can look forward to a tight race between Cauchon and Comlan Amouzou, a candidate with a first rate network in the riding. … … and, since 1997, has managed all Liberal campaigns in the riding, so he has a very tight network. … He’s also VP of the riding association and sits on the executive committee of the Liberal Party’s Québec wing and chairs its multiculturalism policy committee, which brings him into contact with the diverse ethnic groups that are heavily represented in the riding.”

Over to you for the next move, oh great Liberal Party establishment"

So what does happen if Cauchon does not win nomination??

Bryan L.

My guess is that he would not be the candidate in Outremont and that would be that. As far as I can tell, this was about letting the riding association have an open nomination meeting. May the best person win. Democracy, etc. Who knows? They might be on to something.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Of course Cauchon wouldnt be the candidate, the question is are there any implications beyond that? The leader would have been shown up, again. Coderre would have exercised his power in Quebec Liberal circles, proving Ignatieff has no power within the Quebec Liberal party…..who does that matter to? I would say increasingly fewer people, including fewer within the LPoQ.

Ultimately, without this resolved Ignatieff will not be allowed to lead the Liberal party in an election….and if he does, then the NDP has real chances to make gains…imho…..Ignatieff needs to tink about an election in Fall 2010 at the earliest and rebuild (again) for that.

herringchoker

Does anyone else worry about these otherwise humourous thought-bubbles that emanate from Mr. Wells? Remember, a few years back he mused about what Gilles Duceppe might do if he was a strategist and the result was the Nation Resolution.
Anon

Fact: This last quarter we had zero growth.
Fact: The great majority of stimulus money is being spent in Conservative ridings. [Harper is using the money for political purposes, not for the good of the country.]
Fact: Only a small percent of allocated stimulus money has been spent. [His ideology tells him the government has no role in stimulating the economy.]
Conclusion: Harper is bad for the economy.
Recommended action: Harper should admit his incompetence, step down, and give the Liberals [or a Liberal/NDP coalition] a chance to get the economy moving again.
Addendum: This is not a good time for the Liberals and NDP to be squabbling; there's too much at stake.

4:49 PM
http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Wish they would.

It'd be a fun fall election…
kcm

Why would Layton want to do that? Isn't it out of the frying pan and into the fire. An election now would that Harper was perceived not to have provoked would run a very good chance of netting him a majority. How does that benefit Jack, even if he does pick up a few more seats at the libs expense – no sure thing. Hmmm, seems like a losing proposition to me…i can't imagine why he isn't doing it.
wilson

It is really funny to think that to Stop a Harper Majority, Layton and crew will prop up the 'Harper government' now.
http://theplaceofbiff.blogspot.com biff

The ground game and organization is always important in an election, but particularly in Quebec. The fault lines Jarrid refers to could seriously undermine Liberal's hopes in that province.

Is there a single region (or even city – given TO's latest surge for Harper) where the Liberals have a realistic prospect of major seat gains at this point?
hosertohoosier

They are up in Quebec, and have been polling better than Dion's 2008 performance, so it is fair to say that in an election the Liberals would gain seats. Where? Their biggest gains would probably be in Lib-NDP races, since the NDP is down (eg. Outremont, Trinity-Spadina, probably some places in BC). There are a few Bloc-held seats that are also vulnerable, like Jeanne-Le Ber. The Liberals are also the likely beneficiaries of the Tory slide in Quebec. The Liberals could easily gain 15 seats or so. That is not to say they should be super-eager for an election, but should one come, they will be well-placed.

One other thing – the Liberals have radically improved their fundraising skills. The NDP has not. Continued annual elections will bankrupt the NDP, so advantage Iggy.

Finally, without a majority, Harper is likely to step down. That not only creates a vacuum for the Liberals to exploit in the short term and a premise for yet another election in the medium term, it also sets up an untested challenger to Ignatieff. Harper, like him or not, has one incredibly important thing going for him as Tory leader. He can hold the party together. Could a red Tory do the same? Could a hardcore Reformer?
Bill D, Cat

My vote can be bought .
dede

More accurately "tactics", not "strategy".
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Finally, without a majority, Harper is likely to step down.

What makes you so sure?
http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

I'm still waiting for Coderre to pull an Emerson and jump to the Harper cabinet.
http://intensedebate.com/people/austinso austinso

I don't know what the big deal is… the Quebec wing had to be rebuilt and that was apparent from the outset of the leadership convention.

No better way than to get that monkey off their back than to get rid of…well…the monkey…
Observant

Iggy has just performed political hara kiri in Quebec … and his guts will be strewn everywhere as the Quebec media grinds him into dust …!!!

Layton and his Dippers could eviscerate the Liberals in the RoC … only if he votes with the Liberals on their non-confidence motion. It's now or never Jack … so pull the plug please ..!!!
http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

It's funny… but reality sometimes just is that hilarious.

For the Dippers, for the moment, Reality Bites.

Well, back to Harper's line — "The longer I'm prime minister, the longer I'm prime minister."

It's not like he's pushing an especially conservative agenda, anyway. This is more of a holding-pattern, crisis management government.
http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

Austinso,

Let's agree with your point, it should have been dealt with in private and in 24 hours. No one should have made public statements after the leader made his position public.
Lycan Stark

The thing is, leaders usually get at least two election shots before their fate is ultimatley determined. Harper had one in 2004, and was do or die in 2006.

Those dynamics for the Liberals have changed. No longer are they willing to wait to get back into power before switching leaders; it seems they are doing it after losing elections now. Dion was the start of that trend. The Tories didn't get their majority, but Dion got crushed. Ignatieff is looking to head down the same road should an election happen now.

And there is no reason to believe that he won't share Dion's fate.