Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

If Jack Layton were a strategist…

by Paul Wells on Monday, September 28, 2009 4:47pm - 99 Comments

…he’d vote in support of the Liberals’ non-confidence motion this week.

The Liberals are in perfect disarray. Layton will never have a better shot at harvesting a chunk of the Liberal vote.

But of course, he’s not thinking about that stuff, is he? He’s just so worried about the Canadian workers who need their EI.

Tags: Just sayin'

More by Paul Wells

http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

It's tough being selfless.
Foreigner

The Liberals are in perfect disarray

*snore*
http://intensedebate.com/people/Inkless Inkless

Ian Davey, I presume?
http://intensedebate.com/people/john_g2708 john g

He had a better shot when he was running against Dion. He blew it then by pretending that he was going to be PM instead of setting his sights on possibly being opposition leader.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/john_g2708 john g

He had a better shot when he was running against Dion. He blew it then by pretending that he was going to be PM instead of setting his sights on the more realistic goal of possibly being opposition leader.
officerfarva

Of course, the NDP is in perfect array.
Canuckistanian

still don't see the dippers doing better than their last showing.
http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

I think Cons should abstain and let the other parties vote however they wish. Dippers could vote against the motion, which would give them cover with the majority of electorate that doesn't want an election, and still go to election because Libs and BQ would presumably vote for the motion.

That way Cons and Dippers get election they want while not appearing desperate and Libs carry can for calling election they probably don't want at the moment. It would be win-win for everyone except Libs, of course, but who cares about them.

http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

Maybe they could claim they have sick MP's suffering from H1N1 or due to the New Carbon Offset Policy the chuckwagon express delayed their arrival.
scf

Interesting idea, but it'd be strange seeing Cons abstaining from a vote of confidence in themselves.

hosertohoosier

I think the backlash would outweigh any possible benefit. I suspect that there will be a ballot-box penalty for any party that is perceived to be playing games and inhibiting stability – witness Ignatieff's quick drop in the polls of late.

Andrew (not Potter or Coyne)

It’s hard to imagine they are disarrayed than at this time last year.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

I know!

I am not sure they are, although they certainly arent in mid season form….but I defer to Mr wells' on the ground obsevation

As for Layton….I am not sure the NDP is ready either. High risk move that could backfire, unless you think the Liberal would look like a combination of the last Martin campaign and the Dion campaign…If that was the case then he should roll the dice.

Anon

The hypocrisy of Layton is quite mind-numbing. This guy voted against five times the amount in March, and now … someone should hold him by his collars, and slap him silly.

The Liberals are in perfect disarray. Layton will never have a better shot at harvesting a chunk of the Liberal vote.

One could replace "Layton" with "Harper," who is a well-known and acclaimed strategist.

http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

When did self-preservation become unfashionable? The Liberals were quite impressive in their performane for 4 years.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

When did self-preservation become unfashionable? The Liberals were quite impressive in their performance for 4 years.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Tridus Tridus

When you spend all your time bashing the other guys for propping up the Conservatives and saying "people who voted for the Liberals were conned into supporting the most right wing government in Canadian history", you then can't turn around and do exactly the same thing without looking a wee bit hypocritical.

I know that hypocrisy and outrageous rhetoric without any basis in reality are normal for Ottawa, but this is pretty far out there even by that standard.

John W.

It would be fun to watch Jack and Brad explain away another 180.

herringchoker

Not as much fun as watch Jack and Brad trying to raise $18 million on short notice.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

It's ironic that most of the MPs who nominally support the non-confidence motion are secretly hoping that it fails, while many MPs who vote against it are secretly hoping that it passes.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Maybe Layton should free his caucus to vote their conscience.

walter

Right on, and so should Harper-but wait, Harper's Bizarre boys have no conscience.

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

It's ironic that most of the MPs who nominally support the non-confidence motion are secretly hoping that it fails, while many MPs who will vote against it are secretly hoping that it passes.
Richard

What impact will the Liberals' state of 'array' have on the NDP's inability to finance cab fare to Gatineau, let alone a national election campaign?
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Interesting suggestion, but wouldn't a free vote be completely unprecedented for a non-confidence motion?
http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Probably.
http://theplaceofbiff.blogspot.com biff

…or attempt to look like you want to "work with parliament" , try to exact some concessions that you know won't be good enough,

and THEN vote against the government,

(instead of promising weeks ahead to vote against an update you haven't seen yet at a time when Canadians aren't crazy about another election so soon after the last).

Perhaps Layton is just choosing not to lead with his chin.

wilson

The perception that Dippers are just a Liberal rump party could fade, if Jack can work with even Harper.
After all Jack and Gilles both say, there is no difference anymore, between the Libs and Cons.
If so, then Jack and Gilles can work with either.

anonymoose

Jack has himself in a tough position. He could be up the creek either way.
http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

Hmm, is strategy what we want politicians to be doing? There is a weird cognitive dissonance here. On the one hand we have Wells and other contributors at Macleans lamenting the lack of interest in politics, even running around and talking about how we can fix the political system.

And then, bang, we're recommending our politicians be strategic above all else because that is all that matters.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Tridus Tridus

At this point, I just want politicians that actually stand for something, will make a case for that something, and then actually *do* that something when they get the chance.

Instead we have Jack who spent months beating the Liberals over the head for propping up "the most right wing government in Canadian history" (Thomas Mulclair's own words), and then turn around and do the exact same thing while trying to explain how this is anything other then blatantly hypocritical.

Meanwhile Iggy wants the government to do a bunch of things, gets them, and suddenly has no confidence in the government. And lets not ignore Dear Leader's ability to forget everything he ever stood for. "Respecting the will of Parliament?" No, that's for the other guys. Fixed election dates instead of calling elections on a whim for partisan gain? Pfft, he was only joking.

It's pretty easy to respect the Bloc these days. As much as I dislike what they stand for, they're open about it and actually stick to it as their primary concern.

http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

You'd be absolutely right if all Layton had done was "prop up" the government. But the question he was faced with was, Do I bring the government down on this particular issue? And in this case, he behaved in line with his own stated beliefs.

The upcoming proposed non-confidence motion is no better because it merely states tthat this house has no confidence, and that raises a fairly obvious "Why?".

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

I think Wells is just making this stuff up in an elaborate scheme to prove Coyne wrong.

anonymoose

it would be interesting to be hearing the two sides of Jack's brain battle this out, laying out the pros and cons of each side of the decision. I think it is quite funny all in all.

walter

Mr Layton has betrayed the principles of the NDP. His argument regarding EI benefits is specious at best, Canada has reached the point where EI benefits have ended for more than half of the people who have qualified since the recession became evident a year ago. Jobs have not been created to pre-recession levels, quite the contrary. Extending benefits ignores the fact that many unemployed are now not receiving income, not receiving EI benefits, but surviving on social assistance, a provincial jurisdiction. Please explain to me how this relates to Mr Layton supporting the Conservatives. Mr Layton's strategy is a transparent blatant sham because of the poor finances of his party. I expected more integrity from Mr. Layton than this.
wilson

''The Liberals are in perfect disarray. Layton will never have a better shot at harvesting a chunk of the Liberal vote. ''

Layton knows there's no rush, at least a few more months of Lib disarray before things iron out in Liberaland,
unless of course, something else happens, like another coup or something…go Bob go
Bill D, Cat

Irony , thy name is Wells .

Mulletaur

Quite.

jarrid

La Presse is reporting that the chief Liberal organizer in Quebec, Pierre LaJeunesse has resigned as well as 3 other top Liberal politicos in Quebec.

As well Nathalie Le Prouhon, Coderre's candate for Outremont, has reportedly gotten cold feet and is now undecided about running for elected office for the Liberals, – CTV reporting.

This is turning out to be quite the major story of the day. Yet, ITQ wonders what all the fuss is on her blog:

"Also, does anyone find it odd that after we spent all of last week telling anyone who would listen that Denis Coderre was doing incalculable damage to Liberal fortunes in Quebec, yet now that he’s gone, we’re just as adamant that this is a possibly fatal blow against Ignatieff’s leadership?"

Follow the fallout Kady, follow the fallout.

Anon

Much ado about nothing. The Liberals have long wanted to dump Coderre. This way, he flames out on his own and nobody has to publicly fire him and his sidekicks.

When Harper goes, for example, Polievre and a whole bunch of other sycophants including yourself will be let go. Will that mean the Conservative party will suffer? No, because a whole new group of sycophants with the new leader will move in.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Liberals have long wanted to dump Coderre.

Then why was Ignatieff publicly supporting Coderre as recently as last week?
jarrid

Oh Dear! Anon comes in with the "nothing to see here folks" routine.

Norm Spector, nothing if not an astute observer of the national political scene, gives it in a nutshell on his G&M blog today. His conclusion: Iggy should watch his back. He quite literally connects the dots in his blog posting. The main dots he connects are the ones that show that Iggy knuckled under to Chretien, Rae and Cauchon, all part of the Paul Desmarais family clan. Iggy was backed by the Martinites in 2006 in Montreal – he lost the leadership because Chretien/Rae didn't sign on – they backed Dion. Iggy's now lost the best organizer in Quebec. The other Liberal MP's as potential Quebec Lieutenants? There's no one there left to do the job – no one.
jarrid

We can choose to rely on Anon and his predictable, kneejerk, partisan armchair analysis, or we could go to say David Akin who is reporting a few minutes ago on the lead story on National Newswatch that:

"We don't really have anyone else in the party in Quebec to do what Denis was doing," said a former Liberal political staffer who had been in touch with his colleagues on Parliament Hill. The staffer, who asked to remain anonymous, said the Coderre resignation is a worrisome issue for Liberals."

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

Jarrid, I'm curious what you think. "a former Liberal political staffer who had been in touch with his colleagues on Parliament Hill" Should David Akin have used this source? How much more credible is this source than "an unnamed source who said he was a Liberal and walked by and heard some other Liberals talking" (I made that up, don't go looking for this guy). Here's what we don't know. The source was a former Liberal political staffer assigned where? How long ago? Who were the colleagues on Parliament Hill?

It's very possible that the Liberals don't have anyone else to do what Denis was doing and that it is a worrisome issue, I'm just struck by the lack of a source.

jarrid

Well you could go to the Parliamentary web site and look at the dismal Liberal Quebec caucus. There's two decent people there, Dion and Cotler, but organization is not their strong suit. Trudeau's a motivational speaker and that's about it. The rest are not up to snuff, pure and simple.

Chantal Hebert is one person who has her ears to the ground on this and the rest of the Quebec media. CTV is also good. Jean Lapierre broke the story that Nathalie Le Prohon is having cold feet.

The Libs have to staunch the bleeding on this, if they can.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

Fine, I agree with Dion and Cotler and while I think Justin will become more than a motivational speaker, I don't think he's there yet, so I agree on that one, too.

But what do you think about the source David Akin used? At what point does 'reporting' become an opinion piece, as it would be if he'd just said, "I looked at the parliamentary website and was struck by the dismal Liberal Quebec caucus. I'll bet Liberals are worried." And if a reporter would like to report on this state of affairs but can't find a credible source to say the Liberal Quebec caucus is dismal, what ought he to do?

DPT

"Polievre and a whole bunch of other sycophants including yourself will be let go. Will that mean the Conservative party will suffer? No, because a whole new group of sycophants with the new leader will move in."

you toss that word around a lot, did you ever consider you might be afflicted yourself?

Brendan Kane

How will they ever replace Denis Coderre's cousin?

John W.

The Liberals sometimes appear to be in disarray, but, even under Dion in the last election, things seemed to pull together and, although not gaining real victory, there was a victory of sorts in surviving with a good number of seats and holding Harper to a minority.

http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

Wow, that is a very creative way to describe the lowest POP in over 100 years for the Liberal Party. If we have another election and the Liberals lose more seats does that mean Canadians are trusting the Liberals with a well earned rest from the mundane job of governing?
http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

Wow, that is a very creative way to describe the lowest POP in over 100 years for the Liberal Party. If we have another election and the Liberals lose more seats does that mean Canadians are trusting the Liberals with a well earned rest from the mundane job of governing?

John W.

That failure to get the expected majority against Dion despite the puffin etc still hurts.

http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

How is your math? I don't blame Dion why are you? The CPC only won 57% of the seats outside QC.

QC has 75 seats. The total federal seats is 24/75. The QC prefer the regional voting Bloc.

GREATER TORONTO: In Toronto, the electoral system favoured the Liberals. They earned less than half the popular vote (43.6%), but received three-quarters of the seats in Parliament (76.2%). The Conservatives earned one out of every three votes in Toronto (33.5%), but received less than one-in-five of the Parliamentary seats (19.1%). New Democrats attracted 15.1% of the votes, but only received 4.8% of the seats.

Look up the anatomy of the Liberal Defeat, and you will quickly understand it was NOT about Dion. Classic mistake to use him as a scapegoat.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

How is your math? I don't blame Dion why are you? The CPC only won 57% of the seats outside QC.

QC has 75 seats. The total federal seats is 24/75. The QC prefer the regional voting Bloc?

GREATER TORONTO: In Toronto, the electoral system favoured the Liberals. They earned less than half the popular vote (43.6%), but received three-quarters of the seats in Parliament (76.2%). The Conservatives earned one out of every three votes in Toronto (33.5%), but received less than one-in-five of the Parliamentary seats (19.1%). New Democrats attracted 15.1% of the votes, but only received 4.8% of the seats.

Look up the anatomy of the Liberal Defeat, and you will quickly understand it was NOT about Dion. Classic mistake to use him as a scapegoat.

John W.

A one vote win is as good as a 10,000 vote win. We all know that. The point is: the Conservatives had a chance for a majority and they blew it.
http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

You believe the CPC had a ground team in QC and extra seats held by the Bloc were in play? I don't.

Take a look at what ridings are within striking distance, they are NOT in QC. The beachead is simply ridings around Quebec City.

Anglo Montreal Island vote liberal.The CPC are third or last in several of those liberal ridings. The Bloc will gain if the Quebec City ridings fall.

The CPC vs Bloc, Bloc vs Lib battle lines in QC. The tories and Liberals are NOT both competitive in the same ridings.

Take a look at

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2008/07/what-ridings-w…

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2008/07/what-ridings-w…

Ontario 905 is the "yellow brick road" to a majority not QC.
http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

The 905 is where Harper will get his majority, if he does. (If there's an election this fall, I think he just might…)

But at the start of the campaign last year, the Tories were up 34-32 on the Bloc in Quebec.

There was a real chance to pick up 25-30 seats there, and that would indeed have been the majority.

But it wasn't Dion and the Liberals that held Harper back — it was the Bloc. (With a strong assist by Charest.)

Next time, next time…
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

Tigerinexile,

I agree the Bloc, NDP, Liberals, Provincial Liberals (quietly-sarcasm) piled on to stop the CPC majority threat.

I never drink the kool-aid from any party. The CPC have little or NO ground support outside their beachead.

Harper is a master tactician with funds and discovered he would not be gaining any seats after dumping billions into Quebec. What did he do in Ontario, and what happened to his numbers in Ontario?

His numbers were already soft in QC and his comment about the Art Cuts, and invisible Quebec ADQ team were thrown under the bus.

He calculations proved his team are reading the tea leaves correctly in playing the Ontario voters againsts the entitled snobs in Quebec voters.

The double digits leads in 905 ridings have nearly all vanished and several riding are within striking distance.

The bigget problem for Harper is he needs the NDP to be polling higher.

Important dates:

<a href="http://www.punditsguide.ca/2009/01/lookahead-to-2…” target=”_blank”>http://www.punditsguide.ca/2009/01/lookahead-to-2...

Fri 2 Oct – 3rd Quarter 2009 allowances paid
Mon 2 Nov – 3rd Quarter Financial Returns available online
Thu 31 Dec – Deadline imposed on Liberal leadership candidates with outstanding leadership debts all but Dryden to repay their loans.
http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Well, it's just one of those things.

Don't need the ground game to win seats if you're polling well enough — in 2006, 10 seats came without one. (Field shifts five points at most, usually less.)

Harper did blow it last year — but still probably would've eked out his majority even without Quebec, if the markets hadn't crashed right when they did.. On the other hand, if he'd been governing with a majority this year, he'd probably be polling in the teens right now — instead, the Liberals are also wearing the bad parts of his management. (The deficit, etc.)

So sometimes there's a silver lining in all this. The Tories have burnt their bridges with nationalists in Quebec, so they need to play to explicitly federalist voters. The 905 is open for large Tory gains. And Ignatieff twice (or thrice) signed off on the measures that took Canada back to deficit for now.

A week is a long time in politics, but Harper looks like he's sitting pretty.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Well, it's just one of those things.

Don't need the ground game to win seats if you're polling well enough — in 2006, 10 seats came without one. (Field shifts five points at most, usually less.)

Harper did blow it last year — but still probably would've eked out his majority even without Quebec, if the markets hadn't crashed right when they did.. On the other hand, if he'd been governing with a majority this year, he'd probably be polling in the teens right now — instead, the Liberals are also wearing the bad parts of his management. (The deficit, etc.)

So sometimes there's a silver lining in all this. The Tories have burnt their bridges with nationalists in Quebec, so they need to play to explicitly federalist voters. The 905 is open for large Tory gains. And Ignatieff twice (or thrice) signed off on the measures that took Canada back to deficit for now.

A week is a long time in politics, but Harper looks like he's sitting pretty for now.